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AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics price target raised by $7.50 at Rosenblatt, here's why
TheFlyontheWall.com - Nov 08 08:12 EDT
Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese raised the firm's price target on Applied Optoelectronics to $27.50 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm thought Applied would slightly miss Q3 and its Q4 revenue estimates, but the actually slightly exceeded consensus second half of FY24 revenue forecasts, the analyst noted. Following the report, the firm is increasing its 2025 and 2026 revenue and EPS estimates, the analyst added.
I agree. This is one risky stock, the way it moves up and down like a yo-yo.
PSIX - A call or email to the CFO is probably the best way to clear up the confusion over the tax situation. May as well get the information directly from the source. I'm sure he would be happy to explain it.
PSIX - There's also this in the 10-Q regarding the income taxes:
Income Tax Expense The Company recorded income tax expense of $0.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, as compared to income tax expense of $0.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023. The Company’s pretax income was $17.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a pretax income of $7.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023. The Company continues to utilize Net Operating Losses (“NOLs”) along with other tax credits to lower its effective tax rate. The Company continues to record a full valuation allowance against deferred tax assets.
PDEX - I put some orders in last night at IB and got some fills in the wee hours of the morning. With this commentary from the 10-Q it sure looks like there will be some more big quarters on the way this fiscal year:
At September 30, 2024, we had a backlog of approximately $56.8 million, of which $45.6 million is scheduled for delivery during the remainder of fiscal 2025. Our backlog represents firm purchase orders received and acknowledged from our customers and does not include all revenue expected to be generated from existing customer contracts.
CPSH - I joined you on this one. The commentary sounds very bullish:
“While this quarter was negatively impacted by the costs related to staffing and training a third operating shift, we are optimistic about significantly improved performance in the fourth quarter and beyond,” said Brian Mackey, President and CEO. “We recently won another Phase II award from the U.S. government – with the Department of Energy – and just today announced a $12.0 million power module component contract, with a well-known global semiconductor manufacturer. Our third shift began production in the third quarter, though the impact on revenue will not be felt until the fourth quarter. We anticipate higher deliveries going forward. Overall, our book to bill ratio – currently 1.22 – provides confidence that we are weathering the storm of headwinds caused by the end of our HybridTech Armor® contract, supply chain inefficiencies, and a challenging staffing environment. We are now confident that the Company’s long-term strategy of expanding its product portfolio, working with the government to fund innovative R&D initiatives, and growing our core product lines are starting to bear fruit. We appreciate our investors’ continued patience and interest, and we look forward to the quarters to come.”
In addition you get a nice looking balance sheet, so no worries there.
UUU - I guess that's possible. The halt sure is lasting a long time.
They have had a statement for awhile in their quarterly filings regarding a strategic alternatives process. It was there as late as their 10-K filed in July of this year, but then it vanished in their latest 10-Q. As far as I can tell they haven't put out anything stating that the process was completed.
Maybe they are going to announce a reverse merger with a red hot nuclear company and the stock will open $10 higher and then be continuously halted as it moves skyward!
DJT - What an insane move up. It closed at $12.15 on September 23! I agree 100 percent on the future volatility. Election night is going to be utterly crazy for the stock. Anyone brave enough can trade it on IB that night.
TZOO - Big winner from the $6s when you wrote about it a year ago. I'm going to listen to the cc and try to get some clarity on things going forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of a pullback after the big run especially with the election right around the corner. Maybe opportunity knocking at that point.
TZOO - Crapola! I thought they put out a pretty good earnings report last Wednesday morning. I meant to listen to the conference call, but didn't get around to it. It closed Wednesday at $14.60 up from the previous day's close of $12.93. I'm guessing if I would have listened to the cc, I would have been buying. Today it is trading in the $17s!
SCKT - I wouldn't doubt it, since it sure hasn't done anything to warrrant any buying. I bailed on this one awhile ago so not taking advantage of the bump up.
Thanks, jtomm. I bookmarked it. It does have some nice features. I like the way you can go forward and back on the audio and follow along on the transcript.
One thing they could improve is identifying the speakers better. Instead of SPK01, they should identify by name. I emailed them regarding that so maybe they will take it to heart. You can pretty easily figure out who is who, but you shouldn't have to.
CETX - At first blush you would think CETX could be the next low float monster. Unfortunately it has gone almost straight down since the 1:60 reverse split. Yahoo Finance shows the shares outstanding at 290k and float at 289k.
Yesterday the company issued an 8-K regarding their shares currently outstanding. Here it is:
As previously announced, the Company completed a one-for-sixty Reverse Stock Split of the outstanding shares of its common stock, effective after the close of business on October 3, 2024. As a result of the Reverse Stock Split and certain exercises of our outstanding Series A Warrants that occurred following the Reverse Stock Split, as of October 15, 2024, there are 25,586,668 shares of common stock of the Company issued and outstanding. Also as of October 15, 2024, the Company had 1,441,927 Series A Warrants and 15,444,532 Series B Warrants outstanding, with an adjusted exercise price per share of $0.7446.
Buried in an 8-K from September 30, was this little gem:
We have outstanding Adjustable Warrants to purchase 50,009,047 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $0.85 per share (the “Adjustable Warrants”) that provide that upon the completion of the Reverse Split the exercise price of warrants will be reduced to the lowest daily volume weighted average price during the five consecutive trading days prior to the date of such Reverse Split and the five consecutive trading days after the date of such Reverse Split, and the number of warrant shares issuable shall be increased such that the aggregate exercise price payable thereunder, after taking into account the decrease in the exercise price, shall be equal to the aggregate exercise price on the date of issuance. This provision will result in the post-split exercise price of the Adjustable Warrants being reduced and the number of shares of common stock underlying the Adjustable Warrants being significantly increased.
Adjustable Warrants??? That's a good one! I gotta agree with hweb that this is one slimy company!
DRCT - Company announced after the bell that they regained Nasdaq compliance (which was pretty much a given after they filed their late SEC reports), and it bolted to the upside. Some crazy people bid it up all the way to $5.20. Then it collapsed back under $3.00.
DRCT got caught up with their SEC filings yesterday afternoon. That's the good news.
The bad news is that all three quarters they just reported showed a loss. Stockholder's equity was $6.4M at Sep 30, 2023. As of June 30, 2024 it is negative $8.7M. If you strip out the $17M of goodwill and intangible assets it gets way worse.
The new auditor put the going concern statement in their 10-K.
It looks like they will be trying to raise capital post haste with a gun to their head from one of their lenders. This from the latest 10-Q:
On October 15, 2024, with an effective date of June 30, 2024, the Company and EWB entered into the Third Amendment to the Credit Agreement (the “Third Amendment”) which, among other things, (1) provides that the Company will make prepayments of the outstanding principal balance of the Credit Agreement of $1.0 million upon execution of the Third Amendment, $1.0 million on or before January 15, 2025 and $2.0 million on or before April 15, 2025, (2) requires the Company to file a registration statement with the SEC to establish an equity line of credit offering on or before October 31, 2024 and to use commercially reasonable efforts to cause such registration statement to become effective
This last item is very troubling from the just issued 10-K:
Typically, short payments received from our customers are charged back to our publishers, in accordance with our contracts with the publishers. In January 2024, we received notice from one of our sell-side customers that it would be short paying the Company’s invoices. The Company has requested, but has not yet received, an explanation from the customer for the short payment, and therefore the Company disputed it. Because this information has not been received, the Company paid $8.8 million to a few publishers related to these charges. As a result, for the year ended December 31, 2023, the Company has not recognized revenue related to the short payments and recognized $8.8 million in other expense related to the payments made to the publishers. Although the Company is attempting to recover these amounts, recovery is neither estimable or probable and there can be no assurance that the Company will recover any amounts associated with this matter. We do not expect these amounts to recur in any material fashion, although there is no assurance that customers will not take such action in the future.
Lastly, the stock has had a big run up in the last week or so from the low 2s in anticipation of the filings being caught up. I think there's a good chance it moves back down.
DJT - I see Predictit has it Trump 52 - Harris 51. IB ForecastTrader has it Harris 51 - Trump 49. Sounds like it's going to be a nailbiter come election day. You would think DJT would go up with a Trump win, but there could be a muted reaction if it runs up in the weeks leading up to the election.
HRTG - I believe the Atlantic hurricane season runs through the end of November. As far as the stock action goes, your guess is as good as mine. No telling how severe Milton is going to be and then you still have until the end of November......
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