Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
NYCB +.71 to 4.90 after the Chairman and other insiders buy 200,000 shares ..... here are the details -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nycb-jumps-ceo-board-buy-173650242.html
Abh3vt - COLL (33.74) now up 56% from your timely post back in November .... do you still like the stock at $33+ ?
Any concerns about the potential future competition just mentioned by SSK ?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173812454
I'm averaged into a small position at $24.85.
PERI +.33 to 23.94, I think Tuesday's 20% selloff from near $30 was overdone. Q4 EPS beat estimates but FY24 revenue guidance was a bit light, though still up 10%, proforma. I added a few shares. FY 2023 adj EPS was $3.33.
briefing -
Perion Network beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus (29.47 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.93; revenues rose 11.7% year/year to $234.23 mln vs the $233.09 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $860 mln to $880 mln vs. $887.17 mln FactSet Consensus.
VIRC -2.25 to 9.39, I joined the board with a few shares, but maybe the post pandemic sales surge is coming to an end ? The company has a long history of mediocre earnings prior to last year. We'll have to wait until April to see the Jan Q4 numbers.
GEOS -2.80 to 11.41, being taken to the woodshed .... I should have shorted some shares yesterday at $17 for good measure after selling my entire position.
GEOS -1.24 to 14.44, that was an excellent selling opportunity this morning around $17 .... I was surprised to see it trade that high despite it being fairly clear that Mar Q2 will be MUCH weaker sequentially.
I think it's going to trend lower, so not getting back in yet. Maybe in a few weeks or after weak Q2 results which might cause it to tank - that would be an excellent long term buying opportunity. jmho
EBIXQ (2.45) another bankruptcy play that traders drove higher .... it hit $0.49 a few weeks ago, now up 400% since then .... crazy action !
EBIX
DRCT +2.03 to 13.52, darn, this scammy stock is flying again - my lowball GTC buy orders in the $8's missed getting filled when it dipped into the $9's on Monday .... would have made for another sweet round trip trade, now up 41% from Monday's low.
GREE +1.01 to 4.40 ..... thanks again for the earnings alert on this bitcoin play !
I just trimmed a few shares, but holding on to most of my position which has a cost basis of 3.55 .... it's nice to book a 25% gain in just a week !
GEOS +1.15 to 16.83, just sold my entire position. Seems like a selling opportunity. That $30M sale in Q1 will result in $5M per quarter in diminished rental revenue. I'll consider getting back in if it sells off at some point and will read the conf call transcript when it's published.
GEOS (15.68) Dec Q1 was terrific, but got a big $30M revenue boost from the conversion of a rental contract to a sale - so that was 60% of the quarter's revenue - excluding that sale, revenue was down y/y.
PR -
As previously announced, a $20 million rental contract for a Mariner system was converted to a $30 million sale in late December. This brought a significant amount of revenue forward in the first quarter that would have otherwise been received from the rental contract over the course of the year.
PLTR +1.73 to 23.60, bullish writeup on SA this afternoon -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4668303-palantir-this-is-just-the-beginning
NYCB - would you consider the preferred shares, which have also sold off significantly ? Nice yields.
NYCB-A, NYCB-U
NYCB -.27 to 3.93, yeah a lot of unknowns about their SVB $38B loan book acquisition. Clearly a mistake in hindsight, but how much lower can the stock go ? Maybe $3.60 this morning was the bottom ? Or maybe the $2's will be hit by Friday ? Not a stock for the risk averse.
Seeking Alpha is a great website for corporate press releases, other stock news and data.
SA
There were only 2 or 3 banks that were liquidated last March, notably SVB and FRB, yet dozens of regional banks sold off sharply in a panic and became bargains .... CUBI for example hit an astounding low of $6.87 and is now trading around $50. So CUBI's return from the bottom far exceeds that of NVDA over the past 11 months !
NYCB -.53 to 3.67, despite some reassuring management commentary on a conference call this morning. I've been averaging down and writing options at huge premiums. It looks like a fire sale to me, remindful of the regional bank crash last March, but I could be wrong.
briefing -
New York Community issues current liquidity and deposit information (4.20 ) :
Deposit Stability
Total deposits of approximately $83.0 billion, which is up from year end 2023
Total insured and collateralized deposits represent 72% of total deposits
Total uninsured deposits, excluding collateralized and internal deposits, are $22.9 billion
Co maintains over $10 billion of reciprocal deposit capacity to offer expanded deposit insurance to our clients
90% of the balances in our top 20 deposit relationships are fully insured or collateralized
Ample Liquidity
Total liquidity of $37.3 billion which exceeds uninsured deposits, with a coverage ratio of 163%
Cash held on balance sheet of approximately $17.0 billion
Unencumbered securities of approximately $6.1 billion lendable value
Fully collateralized credit facility with available capacity from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and excess lendable value of collateral at the Federal Home
Loan Bank of New York totaling $14.2 billion
New York Community earnings conference call update: The company has seen virtually no deposit outflow from branches (4.20 ) :
The company wants confidence that the bank will get back on track.
The situation is serious, but the bank remains strong.
The company has seen virtually no deposit outflow from branches.
Private banking is performing well.
Liquidity position is strong and it is committed to building the liquidity further.
The company will do whatever it takes, including selling assets.
The company will reduce its exposure to commercial real estate.
The company has lowered commercial real estate originations in recent months.
The dividend was cut to preserve capital.
No plan to raise capital right now, but it could if it needed too.
CNXC -2 to 84, I added a few shares .... now trading at 6.9x FY24 guidance.
Small caps badly lagging large caps YTD - the Mag 6, especially NVDA, are the big winners.
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 9% 9527.9 8716.33
$RLG 6% 3236.947 3051.676
$NDX 4% 17572.73 16825.93
$COMP 4% 15609 15011.35
$SPX 4% 4954.23 4769.83
$DJI 2% 38521.359 37689.539
$DJT 1% 16009.29 15898.85
$RLV 0% 1636.895 1629.421
$SPXEW 0% 6395.06 6402.89
$MID -1% 2749.42 2781.54
$RUMIC -4% 704.876 731.013
$RUT -4% 1953.63 2027.07
$SML -4% 1260.02 1318.26
$W5KMICRO-5% 12756 13358.71
$DJU -5% 837.9 881.67
GERN - clearly 3/14 is a very important date for the company. If the advisory committee recommends against approval the stock will tank. Are you going to hold your shares through the meeting if it's still around $2 ?
VTLE (42.72) dilution hasn't been too bad and hopefully justified by the increased reserves and production. Small cap oil producers have been poor performers this past year due to declining oil prices, but now look oversold. Maybe the stock will get a boost when they report Q4 on 2/21 ? I've been writing covered calls and rolling them over at expiration.
ESOA +.40 to 8.17, I've been selling into the strength ....
GREE -.43 to 3.31, there must be a sale of assets or other non-recurring gain in Q4 .... there's no other explanation. They actually mined fewer bitcoins in Q4 than Q3. However the chart looks appealing .... the stock has oscillated a lot over the past year between $1.55 and $9.25 despite all the quarterly losses. Seems like there's a good chance it will spike higher once again between now and the earnings on 3/27. Even if only to $4, it would be a nice gain from the current price.
GREE -.22 to 3.52, I got a fill at 3.50 and have GTC bids in at 3.40 and lower ....
META might be better
META +78 to 472, it's a monster megacap, now up a stunning 413% from a low of $92 just 16 months ago !
In hindsight it was a super bargain back then. I should have sold the ranch to buy shares.
BMY -.45 to 48.22, down despite a decent report and guidance ..... the long term concern is that BMY has several drugs coming off patent protection in the next few years. They've been doing acquisitions to counter that headwind.
briefing -
Bristol-Myers beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (48.67 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.70 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.15 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.55; revenues rose 0.6% year/year to $11.48 bln vs the $11.19 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $7.10-7.40, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $7.02 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs growth in low single digits, which translates to ~$45.5-46.4 bln vs. $45.67 bln FactSet Consensus.
January Jobs number comes in hot -
briefing -
January employment report filled with positive surprises (and some quirks, too)
The January employment report showed headlines for the key metrics -- nonfarm payrolls, private sector payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings -- that were stronger than expected (much stronger for the payrolls data).
The report had a few quirks, too, namely a notable drop in the average workweek to 34.1 hours from 34.3 hours, benchmark revisions that showed nonfarm payroll employment in November and December combined 126,000 higher than previously reported, and updated population estimates that decreased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population by 625,000 and the civilian labor force by 299,000 in December.
The key takeaway, though, is that it is apt to be construed by the Fed as a report that, on balance, fits its current base case for seeing a March rate cut as unlikely.
January nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 (Briefing.com consensus 175,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 289,000 from 227,000. December nonfarm payrolls revised to 333,000 from 216,000. November nonfarm payrolls revised to 182,000 from 173,000.
January private sector payrolls increased by 317,000 (Briefing.com consensus 150,000). December private sector payrolls revised to 278,000 from 164,000. November private sector payrolls revised to 152,000 from 136,000.
January unemployment rate was 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%), versus 3.7% in December. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 20.8% of the unemployed versus 19.7% in December. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 7.2% versus 7.1% in December.
January average hourly earnings were up 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.5%, versus 4.3% for the 12 months ending in December.
The average workweek in January was 34.1 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4), versus 34.3 hours in December. Manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 39.8 hours. Factory overtime was dipped 0.1 hour to 2.7 hours.
The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%.
The employment-population ratio increased to 60.2% from 60.1% in December.
S&P futures are currently up 28. META up an astounding 15% after hours. So the weighted average post earnings day gain for the Mag 7 is impressive.
I covered my short hedges after hours .... sold FNGD, SPXS and TZA at a loss. Strong earnings from META and AMZN just reported could send the market even higher. Who knows when we'll finally get a major correction ? There are no catalysts for it now.
NYCB - NIM does seem to be a contradiction with Net Interest Income ..... lots of uncertainty as to what Q1 will look like.
Wade - how can it be a huge SMCI short position if you are 95% in cash ? Also, why not short in the WadeGarret portfolio ? After all, you buy SPXS and SOXS regularly in the portfolio. That's also shorting.
NYCB updated the 8K presentation to show expected Net Interest Income at $2.8 to $2.9B for 2024, $300M more than your estimate - analysts pressed for it during the conf call according to a Bloomberg article.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/910073/000091007324000037/nycb-4q23earningspresent.htm
S&P500 +44 to 4889, your inclination was correct ! "Buy the Dip" sentiment remains intact.
GREE - and bitcoin, now at $43,000, could correct sharply at any time after the big gains over the past few months. Of course it could also keep trending higher. Who knows ?
NYCB -.88 to 5.59, the stock is certainly getting battered today. Maybe you're right about EPS being $0.38 or lower for 2024. Your quick math seemed correct, yet analyst estimates aren't yet going that low. Maybe they'll adjust lower after the Q1 report ?
So far I'm under water with my buy/write strategy. I might average down and will let you know how it plays out. The CBOE started offering weekly options trading on the stock today, since there's lots of speculator demand. That will allow me to roll my covered calls over weekly. The premiums are very high at this point in time, but will diminish once the stock stabilizes.
GREE - we'll have to wait to get the Q4 details, but margins should be up substantially from Q3 because bitcoin prices were 30% higher. They mine and sell bitcoins along with providing mining services.
GREE +.27 to 3.92, nice Q4 projections. Their earnings are somewhat tied to the price of bitcoin, but that's even higher now than in Q4. Seems like decent risk/reward at this price. I just picked up a few shares. Thanks for the alert.
NYCB (6.48) analyst commentary and downgrades ..... I think you're exceedingly pessimistic in thinking the stock is waaayyyy overpriced in the $6's. Maybe you are anticipating more big charge off's and being too dismissive of the long term potential for earnings to rebound given the book value of $10+.
fwiw, I averaged in yesterday at 6.65 and sold the Feb $7 calls for $0.42, so my cost basis is $6.23 and of course if my shares do not get assigned in 2 weeks for a 12% gain, I'll roll over the calls and work my cost basis down into the $5's. I'm comfortable with that.
fly -
New York Community Bancorp price target lowered to $8.50 from $13 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $8.50 from $13 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings miss. The company took decisive actions to strengthen capital ratios and allowance for credit losses, owing to further deterioration in the office & multi-family loan portfolios, and given the updated 2024 EPS guidance, the firm is slashing its 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates to $0.63 from $1.37) and to $0.74 from $1.55 respectively, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
08:25 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Compass Point
Compass Point downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Neutral from Buy with an $8 price target.
08:12 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp price target lowered to $7 from $10.50 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $7 from $10.50 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after the bank reported that it is taking action to adjust positioning on reserves, liquidity, and capital. The firm thinks two key factors drove these balance sheet actions during Q4: NYCB's new status as a Category IV Bank following their acquisition of Signature Bank from the FDIC and a much larger-than-expected increase in net charge offs during the quarter. The firm is decreasing its 2024 EPS estimate 54% and 2025 EPS view 55% to account for lower net interest income and higher expenses.
07:24 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp price target lowered to $7 from $11 at UBS
UBS analyst Brody Preston lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $7 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. New York Community Bancorp reported weak Q4 results, but earnings volatility combined with many moving pieces on the balance sheet, and a healthy level of investor skepticism surrounding the path of charge-offs is likely to keep a lid on multiples, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
06:23 EST NYCB
JPMorgan cuts New York Community target, says selloff overdone
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $11.50 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The analyst says the post-earnings selloff in the shares is overdone with the stock "poised to rebound materially. Alongside Q4 earnings, New York Community announced several strategic actions including bolstering its reserve levels and liquidity as well as actions to bolster capital as the company is headed to become a Category 4 bank, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While there is a notable step-down in earnings on tap for 2024, "as the quarters roll by in 2024 and 2025 starts to come into view, a much rosier picture should start to emerge," says JPMorgan.
05:04 EST NYCB
New York Community downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
RBC Capital downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $7, down from $13. The bank's Q4 results had several negative surprises, including a higher than expected provision and reserve build, a meaningfully lower margin and outlook, and a dividend cut announcement, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes many of these trends are related to the company crossing the $100B asset mark and becoming a Category IV financial institution, which is driving increased liquidity and compliance needs.
05:01 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Jefferies downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Hold from Buy with a price target of $7, down from $13. The analyst cites the "unexpectedly faster" regulatory mandate to Cat IV bank compliance for the downgrade. The bank's actions taken thus far are a solid step forward, but impair profitability significantly given a need to run with higher capital, liquidity and reserves while trailing Cat IV peers modestly, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects New York Community's path to improved profitability will take years while credit risk remains an overhang.
Wade - GERN - maybe some investors doubt the company will get FDA approval in which case the stock will be trading under $1.
Will you be holding all your shares through the PDUFA date of 6/16 ?
Will you be holding all your shares through the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee open meeting on 3/14 ???