Bitcoin has dropped a stunning 15% since North Korea stole $1.5 Billion with a hack a few days ago ..... this doesn't instill confidence in the security of one's holdings ! Yikes.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/north-koreas-1-5-billion-crypto-hack-is-chump-change-given-whats-lurking-a03f29c3

BTC, COIN

NVDA may be a bit undervalued at $130, but not by much, imho. I think the stock will be range bound between $120 and $150 until the next earnings report in May. We shall see. I will be opportunistically trading it, buying on weakness, selling into strength.

NVDA (131) flat after hours. Earnings and guidance beat estimates, but not a blowout -

briefing -

NVIDIA beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus (131.28 +4.65) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.89 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.85; revenues rose 77.9% year/year to $39.33 bln vs the $38.1 bln FactSet Consensus.
Data Center revenue for the fourth quarter was a record, up 93% from a year ago and up 16% sequentially. The strong year-on-year and sequential growth was driven by demand for our accelerated computing platform used for large language models, recommendation engines, and generative AI applications.
Delivered $11.0 billion of Blackwell architecture revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the fastest product ramp in history. Blackwell sales were led by large cloud service providers which represented approximately 50% of our Data Center revenue.
Gaming revenue for the fourth quarter was down 11% from a year ago and down 22% sequentially, due to limited supply for both Blackwell and Ada GPUs.
Professional Visualization revenue for the fourth quarter was up 10% from a year ago and up 5% sequentially. These increases were driven by the continued ramp of Ada RTX GPU workstations for use cases such as generative AI-powered design, simulation, and engineering.
Automotive revenue for the fourth quarter was up 103% from a year ago and up 27% sequentially. These increases were driven by sales of our self-driving platforms.
Co issues upside guidance for Q1 (Apr), sees Q1 revs of $43.0 bln +/- 2%, implying $42.14-43.86 bln vs. $42.07 bln FactSet Consensus.
GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 70.6% and 71.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Co added, "Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law — increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter. We've successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter. AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries."

JAZZ +6 to 145 after posting strong Q4 earnings -

briefing -

Jazz Pharma beats by $0.79, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (139.67 +2.98) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $6.60 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.79 better than the FactSet Consensus of $5.81; revenues rose 7.5% year/year to $1.09 bln vs the $1.06 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $22.50 to $24.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $22.03 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 revs of $4.150 bln to $4.400 bln vs. $4.32 bln FactSet Consensus.

TSLA sales in Europe are plunging, down roughly 50% y/y in January - maybe it's temporary, but maybe not. There's also lots of price competition in China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgd9v3r69qo

GERN -.72 to 1.65, downgraded by Wainwright -

fly -

H.C. Wainwright downgrades Geron on strategy shift, data delay
H.C. Wainwright downgraded Geron to Neutral from Buy without a price target following the Q4 report. The shift in guidance for interim data from the IMpactMF study to the second half of 2026 creates a lack of near-term meaningful catalysts, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Geron is changing its launch strategy after Rytelo's eight-week and four-week trends showed flat revenues since the holiday season. It cites the delayed data and streategy shift for the downgrade.

CIVI -.39 to 39.96, I decided to add shares this morning and write covered calls. It's gotten oversold and the yield is around 5%. Of course it's all about the price of crude oil, now down to $68/bb. If oil prices continue to drop, then so will CIVI.

This is still just a 1%+ position for me .... too risky and speculative for a large position. Crude oil prices are unpredictable.

ADFJF (DRX.T) +.76 to 5.90, announces $120M in new orders - that compares to $80M in Oct Q3 revenue.

ADF GROUP INC. ("ADF" or the "Corporation") (TSX: DRX), a North American leader in the fabrication of steel superstructures announces the signing of a series of new contracts in Quebec and the Western U.S. totaling $120.0 million.

The largest contract in this series of new orders consists in the fabrication and installation of the steel structures and heavy steel components which are part of a major renovation program for a sports complex in Western U.S.A.

This series of new orders also includes various structural steel contracts in the recreational sector, also in Western U.S.A., and in Quebec for a major client for which ADF has completed various other contracts in recent months and years.

Both of ADF's fabrication plants in Terrebonne, Quebec and in Great Falls, Montana, will be involved in carrying out these new contracts. The fabrication of the various steel structures will begin in the coming months and is expected to extend over a period of approximately 15 months.

The Corporation's order backlog stood at $ 330.3 million as at October 31, 2024, excluding the new orders announced today.

SMCI +9.00 to 54.54 in premarket .... the auditor resignation is more of a mystery now. Evidently there were some issues that the company was able to resolve with the new auditor that did not impact the financial statements.

SMCI was a big winner for me, but I could have played it better and taken a larger position. It was a steal in the $17's last November. At this point I'm on the sidelines but would consider getting back in on a big pullback.

NVDA earnings after the bell will be highly interesting. I have a small position in NVDA.

GERN -.72 to 1.65 in pre-market ..... flat sales so far in Q1 is really bad news. This stock has been a disaster.

Hopefully Wade doesn't have any real money invested in this loser. I never understood his obsession, endlessly touting it on this board.

Magnificent 7 not looking so magnificent YTD -

 
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 META     12%        657.5        585.51 
 AAPL     -1%        247.04       250.42 
 AMZN     -3%        212.8        219.39 
 MSFT     -6%        397.9        421.5 
 NVDA     -6%        126.63       134.29 
 GOOG     -7%        177.37       190.44 
 TSLA     -25%       302.8        403.84 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            -5%
                            

CIVI -7.01 to 42.29, getting hit hard. They're maintaining the base dividend of $0.50 per quarter, so the yield is fairly good. I'm hanging on but well under water at this point. I've had several losers in the energy sector and have cut back on my overall exposure. O&G prices are too unpredictable.

COV.V, CVALF - their financial figures are reported in Canadian dollars -

https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/422283/content

AES +.05 to 10.72, acting better lately. I'll be very interested in seeing the earnings report, due out next Friday morning .....

A 10% or greater market correction would be healthy and create some nice buying opportunities. I would welcome it, but the market has been very resistant against anything more than a 3% pullback. Maybe this time will be different ?

Valuemind - that's an awesome return of 300% since Jan 2022 when considering it includes a 62% loss that year.

So you turned every $100 into $38 during the bear market of 2022 .... but then turned $38 into $400, about a 950% gain the past 2 years ? If that's right it's amazing ! I guess TSLA and NVDA were your biggest winners ?

HLF +2.40 to 8.02, nice rally ! Wish I had loaded up in the $6.40's after hours yesterday when plenty of shares were available. Didn't expect this big a rally.

CXDO +.71 to 6.98, had news this morning -

PHOENIX, AZ / ACCESS Newswire / February 20, 2025 / Crexendo®, Inc. (NASDAQ:CXDO), an award-winning software technology company that is a premier provider of cloud communication platform software and unified communication as a service (UCaaS) offerings, including voice, video, contact center, and managed IT services tailored to businesses of all sizes, today announced that management will attend the Oppenheimer 10th Annual Emerging Growth Conference being held virtually February 25-26, 2025.

Doug Gaylor, President and COO and Ron Vincent, CFO will be available for virtual one-on-one meetings with institutional investors on February 25 and 26, 2025. Management will highlight Crexendo's (CXDO) continued excellent results as well as discuss future growth strategies and business development opportunities.

MD +3.24 to 17.35, great call on this one 9 months ago, now up 128% since your post. I'm mostly out now but it was a nice winner for me.

briefing -

Pediatrix Medical Group beats by $0.14, beats on revs; Issues FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance (14.11 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.51 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.37; revenues rose 1.1% year/year to $502 mln vs the $486.21 mln FactSet Consensus.
Same-unit revenue from net reimbursement-related factors increased by 5.9 percent for the 2024 fourth quarter as compared to the prior-year period.
Preliminary 2025 Outlook: On a preliminary basis, Pediatrix anticipates that its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA, as defined above, will be in a range of $215 million to $235 million

HLF +2.05 to 7.67, thanks for the insightful commentary. I added a few shares at $7.40 and sold the May $7.5 calls at $1.02. The high option premiums make hedging attractive. I feel comfortable with a cost basis of $6.38.

HLF is a bit remindful of BBBY. It appears that HLF has spent roughly $2B on share buybacks at 5x higher prices on average over the past 8 years. If they had instead paid down debt, they'd now have minimal or no debt, little interest expense and the share price would be much higher. BBBY (Bed Bath and Beyond) went down the same path it led to bankruptcy.

It's encouraging to see that HLF has reduced LT debt by about $275M y/y and intends to reduce it by a further $1B to $1.4B the next 4 years. An excellent use of FCF.

HLF +.88 to 6.50 after hours .... I may add a few shares tomorrow depending on how it trades.

AR +.70 to 40.44, I just picked up a few shares of this NatGas producer. NG prices are going through the roof, now over $4.30/mcf, thanks to an ongoing cold winter and rising LNG exports. Unlike other producers like SD and GPOR which produce both Oil and NG, AR is a nearly pure play on NG.

Of course O&G prices are very volatile, so who knows where they're heading in the coming year ?

NKLA -.30 to .47 after filing for bankruptcy ..... this was a very hot EV stock back during the EV hype in 2020 hitting a peak of around $95 like so many other once high flying EV stocks including SOLO, GOEV, SLDP, QS, etc.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nikola-stock-price-chapter-11-bankruptcy-filing-29954e6d?st=Ap7be5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

ANET - I picked up a few shares at $102 and sold the June $105 calls for $10 .... I think I'm fairly safe with a cost basis of $92. Of course my maximum return is limited to 14%, but that's pretty good for 4 months.

ANET -9 to 102, dropping even though analysts raise price targets -

fly -

07:16 EST ANET
Morgan Stanley would be buyers of Arista Networks weakness after earnings
Morgan Stanley analyst Meta Marshall says Arista Networks' Q4 results beat Street expectations and were "about in-line" with buyside expectations and the company raised its outlook earlier in the year than normal. Weakness in after-hours trading was largely a result of a year-over-year decline in Meta (META) revenue and the fact that a fifth trial is not expected for now in 2025/26, but in general the firm feels better about FY25 and "would be buyers of weakness," the analyst tells investors. The firm has an Overweight rating and $118 price target on Arista shares.
06:30 EST ANET
Arista Networks price target raised to $108 from $106 at Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler analyst James Fish raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks (ANET) to $108 from $106 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes Arista reported Q4 results that came in relatively inline to our expectations, though the only slight FY25 guide raise to 17% and concerns around Meta (META) loss given competitor commentary and year-over-year decline has sent shares lower.
06:12 EST ANET
Arista Networks price target raised to $125 from $115 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks (ANET) to $125 from $115 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Arista's confidence to uptick 2025 revenue guide to up 17% year-over-year vs prior guide cadence is notable. Reiterated AI target, deferred revenue +85% year-over-year with product deferred plus $150M quarter-over-quarter, and Microsoft (MSFT) plus Meta (META) 2024 contributions are in focus, Wells adds.
05:58 EST ANET
Arista Networks price target raised to $145 from $135 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks to $145 from $135 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 beat and increased its 2025 outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm is "encouraged" by Arista's reiteration of its $750M back-end artificial intelligence revenue target in 2025 as three AI cluster buildouts move into production despite one AI cluster buildout no longer expected to contribute to revenue.
05:34 EST ANET
Arista Networks price target raised to $121 from $115 at Citi
Citi raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks to $121 from $115 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a "beat and raise" quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Arista reiterated $750M in back end artificial intelligence sales in 2025 despite dropping one hyperscale customer off its list and slower ethernet adoption at another, offset by smaller AI customers. A "full year guide lift this early in the year is a a good sign for the things to come," contends the firm.
05:15 EST ANET
Arista Networks price target raised to $126 from $125 at Barclays
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks to $126 from $125 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company beat Q4 estimates and its Q1 guidance was above the consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Arista's 2025 growth rate "ticked higher, and seems conservative." The artificial intelligence backend target of $750M was maintained but Barclays sees upside and thinks 2026 revenues could double off that base.

ANET down 6 to 105 after hours despite the earnings beat -

briefing -

Arista Networks beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus (111.06 +4.19) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.57; revenues rose 25.3% year/year to $1.93 bln vs the $1.9 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $1.93-1.97 bln vs. $1.9 bln FactSet Consensus.

SMCI +5.73 to 53.64, huge rally since hitting $25 just 2 weeks ago and $17 in November .... I got out too soon, but with very solid profits. Staying on the sidelines for now. It may be a "sell the news" event when they file the 10K in the coming days.

FHLD +.02 to .39, a great quarter and impressive outlook, but are those 50% operating margins sustainable ? Evidently the sale of huge investment tax credits are supporting the numbers.

PR -

We are just getting started. The early performance of our Non-FICO-Driven Residential PPA shows our potential with an annualized run rate for signed contracts of over $100 million. We believe our continued introduction of new, innovative financing solutions, strategic acquisitions and key industry partnerships will drive meaningful revenue and earnings growth in the quarters ahead.

Our proprietary financing solutions were the driver behind our first quarter's results. Since launching our non-FICO-driven residential PPA nationwide in September, through the end of our first quarter, we signed 475 projects, totaling nearly $37 million in contract value, which will generate $29 million in TAG-owned notes and almost $14 million in investment tax credits (ITCs) that we can monetize upon completion of these projects.

FHLD looks like an interesting find .... a reverse merger with a solar company in September drove the revenues and profits for Dec Q1 .... who knows whether it's even partly sustainable ?

I picked up a few shares. Thanks.

GERN -.20 to 2.58, acting like a dog, looks like you'll get your chance buy cheap. But is it really cheap ? Maybe disappointing sales data is leaking out ? They'll be reporting Q4 numbers on 2/26 and maybe they'll provide Q1 sales guidance as well.

Schwab expands 24 hour trading to 800 securities ! Amazing, I didn't think it would happen this fast.

Schwab - Now trade all stocks in the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow 30, plus over 200 ETFs 5 x 24hrs.

ETCC - I picked up a few at 2.39, thanks for the price alert. Looks like someone is bailing out. Maybe a margin call ?

META - I have serious regrets as well .... hindsight perfect as usual.

META hits $727 another all time high .... great call on taking a shot at $100 just 28 months ago in Oct '22 (the bottom was $88 a few weeks later). Would have made a great long term buy and hold.

LITM +.09 to .71 on positive drilling news confirming minable uranium deposits - the stock had been weak lately, hitting a low of $0.51 just yesterday .... I got some fills in the low $0.60's on GTC orders, but unfortunately didn't have any placed in the $0.50's, so I missed out on that buying opportunity.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/snow-lake-accelerates-uranium-strategy-142500000.html

AES -.14 to 10.09, I hope Cramer is right in this case, but he's often wrong, LOL.

DENN - that commentary does sound a bit gloomy .... on the other hand EAT (Chili's) reported very strong results. Maybe they're taking market share from Denny's and others ?

briefing -

EAT - Brinker beats by $0.94, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (154.61 ) :
Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $2.80 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.94 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.86; revenues rose 26.5% year/year to $1.36 bln vs the $1.25 bln FactSet Consensus.
Comparable restaurant sales increased 27.4%, with an increase in comparable restaurant sales of 31.4% for Chili's and 1.8% for Maggiano's. Chili's sales growth was driven by a 19.9% increase in traffic generated by investments in advertising behind industry leading value that brought guests in and operational improvements that brought guests back.
Co issues upside guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $7.50-8.00 vs. $6.44 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 revs of $5.15-5.25 bln vs. $4.9 bln FactSet Consensus.

DIN

DENN -1.37 to 5.35, getting hit hard, but the earnings and guidance didn't seem that bad ....

briefing -

Denny's misses by $0.01, misses on revs (6.72 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.14 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.15; revenues fell 0.6% year/year to $114.67 mln vs the $116.04 mln FactSet Consensus.
Denny's domestic system-wide same-restaurant sales were +1.1%.
Keke's domestic system-wide same-restaurant sales were +3.0%.
FY25 Outlook: Expectations reflect performance through the first six fiscal weeks and the expectation that recent shifts in consumer sentiment due to macro events will moderate over time. Co guides to FY25 Denny's domestic system-wide same-restaurant sales between (2.0%) and 1.0%.
Co guides to FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $80-85 mln vs $81.4 mln in FY24.

DIN

ESOA - ok, I just sold a few shares at 11.37, but I do think this stock could be significantly higher by year end .... I'll be trading around a core position. Maybe there'll be another buying opportunity in May when they report Mar Q2, especially if weather delays impact the quarter. It's been a nasty winter for much of the country.

ESOA +1.44 to 11.45, nice rally off the low of 8.59 set yesterday morning .... I did get 2 small fills avg around 8.90, but was hoping for lower prices and most of my buy orders went unfilled.

The 40% y/y growth in backlog was very impressive, from $186M to $260M, so that bodes very well for a strong June and Sep quarterly results. Even their weakest quarter Mar Q2 may surprise to the upside, but weather could again be a factor given the cold and snowy winter we're having.

Dec Q1 EPS was impacted by weather and project timing related delays -

"Profitability for the quarter was impacted by weather and the timing of projects within the Gas & Water Distribution business lines, but we expect to return to normal margin levels in the coming quarters."