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SSK - the Russell is now down 9% since your timely sell decision, but your stocks are remarkably holding up quite well, only down an average of 4% - and just 2% excluding IART which was crushed after the earnings debacle -
PRICE CHANGE FROM CLOSING PRICE ON 20240716
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
BMY 16% 47.59 41.2
SJM 3% 120.88 117.5
NOMD 2% 18.4 18
VTRS 2% 11.56 11.38
FISI 1% 22.68 22.55
T 0% 18.91 18.85
MD 0% 7.62 7.62
OI -4% 11.29 11.7
VZ -4% 39.8 41.45
CNXC -10% 65.4 72.26
WU -10% 11.35 12.6
NOA -11% 17.81 19.92
ASO -14% 48.79 57.02
IART -30% 22.34 31.74
AVERAGE RETURN = -4%
PSIX - I got filled this morning at 9.05, but already flipped those shares at 10.45 for a quick 15% gain. Should have held on, it's now $11.50. Still holding 10% of my original shares bought at around $2.
TGB -.07 to 1.98, copper prices have retreated but will inevitably surge again according to this article -
https://www.investors.com/news/copper-prices-ai-evs-demand-fcx-teck/
DIN -1.03 to 31.54, I added some shares this morning ..... seems very oversold and yields 6.5%. Q2 earnings due out Thursday morning ..... seems like a lot of bad news is already fully priced in. It's a tough comp versus adj EPS of $1.82 a year ago, but the stock was in the high $50's back then ....
Give 'em hell.
Schwab - that's awful ..... I'd be furious if I'd missed out on all the buying opportunities in early trading .... lots of stocks are now up as much as 10% from the morning lows. Even megacap NVDA bounced over 12%.
Have you tried logging in via Schwab mobile on your smartphone ?
AAOI -.61 to 7.04, I sold 2/3 at $9 on covered call assignments on 7/19 .... holding the rest through earnings, but only because it's a tiny sub 1% position. High risk, high reward potential. Now at around $7, a lot of bad news is priced in.
Schwab and Thinkorswim have been working as usual for me all morning .... maybe because I logged in very early ?
Also bought ASO, CMRE, GTLS, HDSN and NOA.
I've already bought some NVDA, SMCI, PSIX, ULH and DELL, mostly hedged with call options .... and I'm continuing to shop for bargains. Wish I had more cash.
I'll be doing more cautious buying today along with hedging with stock options. The premiums will be huge. The VIX (volatility index) is surging, up 38 to 61 this morning !
S&P futures down 1.1%, Russell down 2% ..... tomorrow should be interesting. It looks like the market will open lower, but then maybe a bounce ? We shall see.
GTLS -27 to 127, this post earnings selloff seems overdone .... I added some shares in the low $120's ....
briefing -
Chart Industries misses by $0.30, misses on revs; lowers FY24 guidance (153.85 ) :
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.30 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $2.48; revenues rose 14.5% year/year to $1.04 bln vs the $1.11 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues lowered guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $10.75-11.75 from $12.00-14.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $10.93 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $4.45-4.60 bln from $4.7 to $5.0 billion vs. $4.67 bln FactSet Consensus.
"We anticipate to sequentially grow sales in 2025 and 2026 each in double digits, continue our margin expansion and generate more cash with capital expenditures as a percentage of sales in the 2.0 to 2.5% range."
I've been doing some cautious buying .... so far CMRE, HDSN, NOA, PSIX, GTLS (earnings selloff seems overdone). Also wrote some NVDA Nov $105 puts for $15 .... for a cost basis of $90 if I get assigned.
SMCI -90 to 583, now down a whopping 53% from the crazy March high of 1229 ......
Russell futures down nearly 4% after a drop of 3% yesterday !
SSK is sitting pretty with all that cash, but will he buy anything ? Or is he waiting for a much bigger correction ? I'll be watching.
INTC -6.01 to 23.04 after hours, getting pummeled after a disappointing quarter and lousy guidance. They're also cutting the workforce by over 15% and suspending the dividend -
briefing -
Intel misses by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; Suspending dividend starting in 4Q24 and announced cost reduction plan, including headcount reduction greater than 15% (29.05 -1.69)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.02 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.10; revenues fell 0.8% year/year to $12.8 bln vs the $12.92 bln FactSet Consensus.
Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue up 9% to $7.4 bln.
Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue down 3% to $3.0 bln.
Intel Foundry up 4% to $4.3 bln.
Cost Reduction Plan: As Intel nears the completion of rebuilding a sustainable engine of process technology leadership, it announced a series of initiatives to create a sustainable financial engine that accelerates profitable growth, enables further operational efficiency and agility, and creates capacity for ongoing strategic investment in technology and manufacturing leadership. The actions include structural and operating realignment across the company, headcount reductions, and operating expense and capital expenditure reductions of more than $10 billion in 2025 compared to previous estimates.
Plan is focused on four key priorities:
Reducing Operating Expenses: The company will streamline its operations and meaningfully cut spending and headcount, reducing non-GAAP R&D and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) to approximately $20 billion in 2024 and approximately $17.5 billion in 2025, with further reductions expected in 2026. Intel expects to reduce headcount by greater than 15% with the majority completed by the end of 2024.
Reducing Capital Expenditures: With the end of its historic five-nodes-in-four-years journey firmly in sight, Intel is now shifting its focus toward capital efficiency and investment levels aligned to market requirements. This will reduce gross capital expenditures* in 2024 by more than 20% from prior projections, bringing gross capital expenditures in 2024 to between $25 billion and $27 billion.
Reducing Cost of Sales: The company expects to generate $1 billion in savings in non-variable cost of sales in 2025. Product mix will continue to be a headwind next year, contributing to modest YoY improvements to 2025's gross margin.
Suspending Dividend: Suspending dividend starting in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company reiterates its long-term commitment to a competitive dividend as cash flows improve to sustainably higher levels.
Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees loss of -$0.03, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.31 FactSet Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $12.5-$13.5 bln vs. $14.43 bln FactSet Consensus. Sees Non-GAAP gross margin of 38.0%.
S&P500 -101 to 5421 after weak economic data stokes recession fears - Russell 2000 getting especially hard hit, down almost 4%. And today marks the start of the historically weakest 3 month period of the year for the market, August through October. Yikes !
CNBC -
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
The 10-year Treasury yield broke below 4% for the first time since February.
That weak data comes a day after the Fed chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did give some investors hope by signaling a September rate cut is on the table.
“The economic data keep rolling on in the direction of a downturn, if not recession, this morning,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “The stock market doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry because while three Fed rate cuts may be coming this year and 10-year bond yields are falling below 4.00%, the winds of recession are coming in hard.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
JAZZ +2.70 to 112.95, I picked up a starter position after hours yesterday at $110. Plenty of shares were available. I added shares this morning and will be accumulating with GTC bids at lower prices.
NOA -.05 to 19.91, bouncing back from a low of 17.35 .... I see the glass 2/3 full and added a bunch of shares in the low $18's. Yes, backlog dropped from $3B to $2.8B, but that's still a 2 year backlog. What more do you want ? Backlog will fluctuate and they have numerous bids in for additional projects. And they're still guiding for a 44% y/y increase in EPS. The 2nd half will be very strong unless you doubt the guidance. It deserves more than a single digit PE imho. I'll be accumulating.
JAZZ (110.25) posts solid Q2 results .....
briefing -
Jazz Pharma beats by $0.53, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (110.25 -2.02) :
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $5.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.53 better than the FactSet Consensus of $4.77; revenues rose 6.9% year/year to $1.02 bln vs the $1 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $19.20-$20.30, excluding non-recurring items, (from prior $18.15-$19.35) vs. $18.51 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $4.0-$4.1 bln (from prior $4.0-$4.2 bln) vs. $4.04 bln FactSet Consensus.
CMRE +.83 to 14.80, after posting EPS of $0.77 for Q2. Container shipping rates have surged this year due to the Houthi attacks on ships in the red sea which have led many carriers to divert south around Africa. CMRE is locking in high rates on long term charters and will be posting strong results for many quarters to come. Beware of course that shipping rates, including dry bulk, are very volatile and impact CMRE's stock price regardless.
I added a few shares today and placed some GTC bids at lower prices.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costamare-inc-reports-results-second-105800111.html
IDR - yeah, those CEO remarks in the earnings PR are rather crude and shocking, not confidence inducing.
PSIX +1.08 to 14.48, I just sold a few more shares and have a GTC order at 14.95 to sell my last remaining shares. Wish I had accumulated a much larger position in the high $1's and low $2's just 6 months ago. This was a fabulous find by KIK.
PYPL +4.61 to 63.55 after posting solid Q2 results -
briefing -
PayPal beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; raises FY24 EPS above consensus; raises share buyback (58.94 ) :
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.19 per share, $0.20 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.99; revenues rose 8.2% year/year to $7.88 bln vs the $7.82 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for Q3, sees EPS of high single-digit vs. flat yr/yr or $0.98 FactSet Consensus; sees Q3 revs of mid-single-digit vs. +7% yr/yr or $7.98 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues upside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of low to mid-teens vs. +9% yr/yr or $4.18 FactSet Consensus.
Additionally, co is increasing share repurchase guidance to $6 bln due to stronger FCF generation. Co's prior guidance was $5 bln.
IDR +.20 to 10.78, the stock will have to dip significantly for me to get back in .... the slight sequential production decline was disappointing.
IART -5.99 to 25.44, nice bounce from the morning low of 22.94. I picked up a few shares at around $24 for a trade .... also sold some Sept $22.5 Puts for $1.45, a cost basis of 21.05 if I get assigned. However I consider management untrustworthy after so many disappointments.
IART -6.23 to 25.20 in premarket after cutting guidance - this was a risky hold through earnings given their track record of repeated disappointments over the past year. Who can trust the lowered guidance ?
briefing -
Integra beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; lowers FY24 EPS and revenue guidance (31.43 ) :
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.62; revenues rose 9.7% year/year to $418.2 mln vs the $413.07 mln FactSet Consensus.
Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2024 was $83.8 million, or 20.0% of revenue, compared to $88.8 million, or 23.3% of revenue, in the prior year.
Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.36-0.44, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.85 FactSet Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $372-384 mln vs. $434.34 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues lowered guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $2.41-2.57 from $3.01-3.11, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.04 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $1.609-1.629 bln from $1.67-1.69 bln vs. $1.68 bln FactSet Consensus.
BMY was a great "buy" alert, not a great sell decision .... but if I had bought in the $39's, I probably still be holding. I prefer to err on the side of holding rather than selling.
BMY +4.08 to 49.35, great alert in the $39's just a few weeks ago .... that was a great buying opportunity, wish I had loaded up. I was very tempted, but it quickly went higher.
briefing -
Bristol-Myers beats by $0.45, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS above consensus, raises rev growth outlook; Phase 3 trial for cendakimab met co-primary endpoints (45.27 ) :
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.07 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.45 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.62; revenues rose 8.7% year/year to $12.2 bln vs the $11.54 bln FactSet Consensus.
Growth Portfolio revenues were primarily driven by higher demand for Opdivo, Reblozyl, Camzyos and Opdualag, partially offset by Abecma.
Legacy Portfolio revenues were driven by higher demand for Eliquis and Pomalyst, partially offset by a decline in Revlimid due to generic erosion.
Today, the company is announcing that the Phase 3 trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of cendakimab in patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) met both co-primary endpoints.
GERN +.26 to 4.55, good news, but I think fully expected after FDA approval, hence just a modest rally today.
SSK - but what about stocks like ASO and CNXC which are well down from the prices you sold at ? Why not buy those back ? Has you view of those specific stocks changed ? Or are you just concerned about a coming market correction ?
btw, CNXC already reported earnings for May Q2. Their next report won't be until late September.
SSK - overall you're about breakeven on the sales of 7/16 (if they were equal weight), so why not at least buy back those stocks that are down ? Or are you still concerned about a looming correction ? The Russell is down about 2% since 7/16, having already partly rebounded.
Price change since 7/16
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
BMY 10% 45.27 41.2
FISI 9% 24.63 22.55
MD 7% 8.13 7.62
VTRS 3% 11.76 11.38
T 2% 19.19 18.85
WU 0% 12.61 12.6
IART -1% 31.53 31.74
SJM -1% 116.06 117.5
NOMD -2% 17.7 18
NOA -2% 19.53 19.92
OI -4% 11.29 11.7
VZ -4% 39.95 41.45
ASO -6% 53.43 57.02
CNXC -8% 66.79 72.26
AVERAGE RETURN = 0%
CUBI +2.87 to 64.10, ahead of earnings after the bell .... I trimmed some shares. The stock was in the $40's just over two weeks ago and could be due for a pullback.
BMY +.77 to 45.43, nice call buying in the $39's ..... earnings are due out tomorrow morning.
I have no position, but it remains on my watchlist.
GERN -.06 to 4.23, I'm not so optimistic and commercialization is a long road ahead ..... but I do think it's a good trading buy in the low $4's.
fwiw, I added shares today at $4.23 and sold the Jan $4.5 calls for $0.70, so a low cost basis of $3.53. I like the risk / reward of that covered call position.
INDV +1.75 to 12.63, after posting earnings inline with the lowered guidance - evidently traders were expecting worse, hence a relief rally - also the share buyback and opioid settlements are positives.
https://www.indivior.com/resources/dam/id/1378/Indivior%20H1%202024%20Financial%20Results%20Final.pdf
The Magnificent 7 have already corrected an average of 13% from recent highs, but remain up 31% YTD - I wonder how much further they have to fall ? NVDA is starting to look interesting at $114, but maybe it's heading back below $100 ?
RECENT CORRECTION -
TKR LOSS Cur Pr High Pr Date of High
TSLA -20% 215.99 271 07/11
NVDA -19% 114.25 140.76 06/20
META -15% 461.27 542.81 07/08
AMZN -10% 180.83 201.2 07/08
GOOG -10% 174.37 193.31 07/10
AAPL -8% 218.54 237.23 07/15
MSFT -8% 428.9 468.35 07/05
AVERAGE RETURN = -13%
***************************************************
YTD PRICE CHANGE -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NVDA 131% 114.25 49.522
META 30% 461.27 353.96
GOOG 24% 174.37 140.93
AMZN 19% 180.83 151.94
MSFT 14% 428.9 376.04
AAPL 14% 218.54 192.53
TSLA -13% 215.99 248.48
AVERAGE RETURN = 31%
If you don't have ToS, you can also check here, albeit with less detail -
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gern&insttype=&freq=9&show=&time=1