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PERI +.45 to 11.32, what about the Microsoft deal that expires on 12/31/24 ? Are you confident it will be renewed or is it too far out to be concerned at this point ? In any case with the Microsoft pricing cuts, it represents a lower percentage of total revenues.
20F -
We are highly dependent on our search services agreement with Microsoft Irelands Operations Limited. (“Microsoft”). We entered into our first agreement with Microsoft in 2010. In November 2020, we entered into a renewed agreement with Microsoft effective as of January 1, 2021 and in effect until December 31, 2024 (the “Microsoft Agreement”). In 2022, our search advertising business Unit, CodeFuel, was named by Microsoft Advertising the “Global Supply Partner of the Year”. The Microsoft Agreement accounted for 37%, 35% and 34% of our revenue, in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.
RCMT files $100M shelf offering -
If and when they use it in part or full remains to be seen, but the potential is there.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/700841/000110465924050091/tm2410069-5_s3a.htm
Here's an interesting article about the current unique mortgage rate situation. Lots of folks are reluctant move and lock in a 3% higher rate - there's never before been such a broad discrepancy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/upshot/mortgage-rates-homes-stuck.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mE0.AH1H.igk4pgTHMiev&smid=url-share
TSLA -5 to 141 after announcing further price cuts - are you adding shares at this level ?
I think the stock has further to fall, but I could be wrong. Earnings are due out tomorrow after the bell.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cuts-prices-across-line-024312843.html
FOR (31.61) is majority owned by the DR Horton (DHI) the nation's largest homebuilder (along with LEN). DHI just reported a very strong quarter with orders up 14% y/y. FOR sells the vast majority (I think over 90%) of it's building lots to DHI, so they'll benefit directly from the solid order growth at DHI.
FOR hit an all time high of $40.79 a few days ahead of the earnings and is now down nearly 25% since then, so quite a haircut, although it's only back to where it was trading just two months ago. I think there's technical support at around $30 which is near book value of $29. I'm accumulating shares on weakness, but still have just a small <1% position. I like their long term growth prospects.
The conf call was generally very positive and included these remarks about getting back to 20% growth and doubling market share as they expand sales to other homebuilders -
Of the $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion that we're going to spend this year, about a third of that will be on land acquisition. And those projects can take anywhere from 12 to 15 months to deliver that first phase. And so, we're really investing to grow in 2025 and beyond. We do want to get back to high growth at that 20% range or maybe even a little bit higher.
We are a market leader in a highly-fragmented and undercapitalized industry and are uniquely positioned to take advantage of builder demand for finished lots. There is a significant opportunity to expand our presence in the markets we operate in and our goal remains the same, to double our market share to 5% over the intermediate term. We expect to aggregate significant market share over the next few years while maintaining our disciplined approach when investing capital to enhance the long-term value of Forestar.
Elevated mortgage interest rates continue to impact affordability, but the underlying fundamentals of a housing shortage remain in place. We believe the low supply of existing homes will continue to drive buyers to new construction and our strong relationship with D.R. Horton provides a clear path for growth.
Mortage rates and historic disparities -
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/upshot/mortgage-rates-homes-stuck.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mE0.AH1H.igk4pgTHMiev&smid=url-share
Here's a bearish article on SA that predicts an imminent 20%+ crash -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684714-s-and-p-500-expect-a-20-percent-plus-crash
We have a highly interesting week ahead .... 1/3 of the S&P is reporting including 5 of the magnificent 7. Too many disappointments could serve as the catalyst for an overdue major correction.
SSK - why don't you take a well deserved break and end the contest now, lol.
SMCI -217 to 711, the sudden collapse in this stock has been epic. Would have made a nice short this morning at the open at $871. I'll be interested in buying shares next week if it keeps dropping since the valuation is getting more reasonable. Seems like momentum alone could take it lower.
I also own several dogs .... NYCB, CNXC, RMAX, GTEC, PERI and INMD ..... plenty of stocks have been getting beat up. But I have some nice winners as well and my short positions have done well lately. I wish I had more and larger short positions !
SOXS +3.74 to 45.01, a 50%+ gain in the past 2 1/2 weeks ..... do you hold any shares ?
IART -2.47 to 29.16 after rescheduling its Q1 earnings release from 4/25 to 5/6. Traders evidently consider the delay a bad omen. Any thoughts ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/integra-lifesciences-reschedule-first-quarter-212400610.html
SMCI -135 to 793 after failing to pre-announce earnings as they usually do with their conf call press release. Might be an ominous sign. That's what traders seem to think. They'll be reporting on 4/30.
SMCI is way down from its early March peak of $1,229.
According to this chart and what homebuilders are reporting, there's an overall housing shortage, not an oversupply. It's overly simplistic to draw conclusions from housing units relative to population. Factors such as shrinking household size, more second homes, outdated homes that need to be demolished, etc, also need consideration. Here's an interesting analysis -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/is-there-a-housing-shortage-or-not
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/16/housing-market-why-homes-expensive-chart-inventory
I somewhat agree ..... if and when mortgage rates finally drop significantly there'll be a surge in existing home sales and the market share for homebuilders will shrink. But who knows when mortgage rates will drop ? They might be stuck at over 5% for years to come.
DHI, the nation's largest homebuilder, reported strong results yesterday, EPS up 24% y/y, revenues and orders up 14%. So for at least the short term, business looks to be excellent.
The homebuilder stocks are generally down YTD, but are starting to look rather cheap.
briefing -
D.R. Horton beats by $0.45, beats on revs; raises FY24 guidance (145.74 ) :
Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $3.52 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.45 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.07; revenues rose 14.2% year/year to $9.11 bln vs the $8.15 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $36.7-37.7 bln from $36-37 bln vs. $36.71 bln FactSet Consensus.
Homes closed in the quarter increased 15% to 22,548 homes compared to 19,664 homes closed in the same quarter of fiscal 2023. Homebuilding revenue for the first six months of fiscal 2024 increased 11% to $15.8 billion compared to $14.2 billion in the same period of fiscal 2023. Homes closed in the first six months of fiscal 2024 increased 13% to 41,888 homes compared to 37,004 homes closed in the same period of fiscal 2023.
The Company's rental operations generated $33.3 million of pre-tax income on revenues of $371.3 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 compared to $34.6 million of pre-tax income on revenues of $224.1 million in the same quarter of fiscal 2023. For the six months ended March 31, 2024, rental operations pre-tax income was $64.6 million on revenues of $566.5 million compared to pre-tax income of $144.9 million on revenues of $551.6 million in the prior year period.
Higher mortgage rate are also benefitting the homebuilders because people don't want to sell their existing homes and give up their low rate mortgages. So the dearth of existing home sales has led to a doubling of market share by the homebuilders. It's quite amazing how much market share they've picked up because of high mortgage rates. I expect another solid year for the homebuilders. The market supply of homes is very low and prices are high. It remains a sellers market which is good news for the homebuilders
XHB
S&P futures drop 60 points on reports that Israel is retaliating against Iran.
TSLA -5 to 150, I've been trading it on the short side and writing naked calls on it since January. It's been nicely profitable overall. I think the stock is heading back to $100 if not lower in the coming year, but there'll be some rallies along the way.
FOR -2.70 to 31.46, despite a solid earnings report, posting adj EPS of $0.89 for Mar Q2, beating estimates. I added to my small position this morning. Forestar Group is a leading a residential lot development company, selling lots to homebuilders. Book value is $29. They maintained their revenue guidance for the year, but based on H1 results I think they'll easily exceed guidance. The next 2 quarters are seasonally strong.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forestar-reports-fiscal-2024-second-103000428.html
ADFJF +.53 to 10.05, I think it can hit $12+ in the coming months and $15+ by year end if the earnings and backlog keep growing. My sales and trades will depend partly on the trading action.
ADFJF +.70 to 10.22, was a fabulous find by Gilead .... I'm averaged in at around $6.50 and have not sold a single share yet. It still looks undervalued. I just wish I had a larger position ... unfortunately it's <1%.
Next week is peak week for earnings. 166 S&P500 companies report including 5 of the magnificent 7. It will be highly interesting.
Thanks for that link .... very interesting short sales data.
DBGI - IB currently has 41k shares available for shorting at a borrow rate of 96%.
TSLA -4 to 151 after Rosner, a former Tesla bull, issues a downgrade -
TSLA is down around 40% YTD, the worst performing stock in the S&P500. It still looks overpriced at 57x FY24 EPS estimates, imho.
fly -
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded Tesla to Hold from Buy with a price target of $123, down from $189. The analyst cites the "high likelihood" of Model 2 push-out and the company's change of strategic priority to Robotaxi for the downgrade. Deutsche's Buy rating was predicated on Tesla's next-generation vehicle priced at $25,000 coming late next year, which would allow the company to reaccelerate volume, margins and free cash flow, and potentially come to dominate the Western electric vehicle market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, pushing out the Model 2 will create "significant" earnings and free cash flow pressure on 2026 and beyond estimates, and make the future of the company tied to Tesla "cracking the code on full driverless autonomy," which represents a "significant technological, regulatory and operational challenge," says Deutsche Bank. The firm views Tesla's shift to Robotaxi as "thesis-changing," and worries the stock will need to undergo a "potentially painful transition in ownership base," with investors previously focused on electric vehicle volumes and cost advantages potentially "throwing in the towel, and eventually replaced by AI/tech investors with considerably longer time horizon."
IART - I suspect that they'll be lowering guidance but that may be priced in already. I'll await the earnings and conf call before considering taking a position. Good luck.
IART is on my watchlist but it's acting like crap so I won't consider buying it until I see the Q1 earnings. Bad news might be lurking.
JAZZ -2 to 107, hitting 4 year lows ..... earnings should be out around 5/9. It's on my watchlist but it's in a relentless downtrend than seems ominous. I want to see the Q1 report before I consider taking a small position.
GTEC -.37 to 1.55, I'm surprised it's not down more, but I'm holding and leaving my low ball GTC bid of $1.05 out there .... hoping for a spike up after the Q1 report in a few weeks, but expect to take the tax loss at some point later this year.
ARM -12 to 110 in a weak semiconductor sector .... I think it has further to fall and just shorted some more shares. It's trading at 70x Mar FY25 estimates. A tad too pricey, imho.
S&P500 -33 to 5018, a 4.7% pullback so far .... I think the market has further to fall and just picked up some SPXS, although my track record in this short ETF is not good.
NYCB +.05 to 2.97 with earnings looming next week .... another loss is expected -
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nycbs-earnings-estimates-have-tumbled-as-loss-looms-after-tough-quarter-985db82f?mod=mw_quote_news
GTEC - exactly - this stock has always been priced with great skepticism of the financials. The traders may have their fun with it. I have a low ball GTC bid in at $1.05 in case it plunges .... because it does have a history of upward spikes as well.
GTEC (1.92) - on a positive note, they do show that operating income rose to $10.8M versus $6.0M y/y on 13.6M shares o/s, so operating EPS of $0.79. Shareholder equity is down to $50M from $66M, but that's still $3.67 per share. Non-controlling interest has dropped from $13.7M to $600k. But who knows if these figures have any basis in reality given that this is a China microcap doing almost all its business in China.
It will be interesting to see how low the stock drops today and whether they go through with the spinoff as recently announced. I'll probably hang on to my remaining shares for the short term and await further developments. The Q1 report will be out in just a few weeks. If it's a nice report maybe traders will forgive or forget the huge Q4 receivable write-down and insider shenanigans ??? LOL
GTEC -.42 to 1.50 after hours. Another China microcap bites the dust. I'm wondering if that 46% ownership interest will be eliminated ? And what will happen to their spinoff plans ? I still hold a chunk of shares but did sell a bunch over the past few months.
GTEC -.03 to 1.93, hopefully they'll post Q4 earnings very soon .... as of today they are officially beyond the 15 day extension. Not good.
I'm interested in shorting a small basket of stocks. There are many stocks in downtrends that seem like they'll go lower especially if this market correction continues.
OPTT -.02 to .21, good catch that it trades on the NYSE/American exchange .... it's gotten so cheap that I completely forgot that it's still on the old American exchange, lol. IB currently has over 300k shares available for shorting at a mere 1% annual borrow rate, whereas it's not shortable at Fidelity. And yes one can short OTC pinksheets at IB. For example one can currently short EBIXQ ($0.80), which is in bankruptcy and was delisted months ago. IB currently has 1.5M shares available for shorting at a modest borrow rate of 10%. I presume it's not available for shorting at Fidelity ?
IB offers features not available at other brokers, hence I'll always keep a small account with them. Does Fidelity allow shorting of OTC stocks ? I have nice profits on my long term short position in OPTT at IB. And they allow GTC orders for shorting OTC stocks .... very convenient.