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S&P500 forward PE is being skewed higher by the Mag 7. The S&P 493 forward PE is something like 18 and the S&P600 forward PE is something like 13, rather cheap.
I'm focused on investing in undervalued individual stocks, not the high PE megacaps. It's just a guessing game when they'll finally correct.
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/how-attractive-are-us-small-cap-stocks.html
BOIL -2.52 to 21.88, another all time low .... NG looks oversold and to avoid the K-1's, futures trading is a great alternative - I added to my futures position today.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173273585&txt2find=boil
S&P500 +37 to 4928, smashing through 4900 after favorable news from the Treasury -
briefing -
Market Briefing: Stocks and bonds like Treasury Department's Q1 borrowing estimate
Stocks popped to new session highs as Treasury yields moved to new session lows a short time ago, responding favorably to the Treasury Department's first quarter borrowing estimate.
Specifically, the Treasury Department anticipates borrowing $760 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, which is $55 billion lower than announced in October 2023. For the second quarter, the Treasury Department is estimating a $202 billion borrowing need.
Market participants -- and perhaps even some bond vigilantes -- are liking the lower-than-previously projected first quarter estimate. On Wednesday, the refunding announcement will carry details on where the debt issuance will occur along the curve (i.e., short end, belly, or long end of the curve).
The 2-yr note yield touched 4.30% following today's announcement and the 10-yr note yield dropped to 4.06%. They are now at 4.31% and 4.07%, respectively. The S&P 500 (+0.6%) for its part spiked to a new all-time high of 4,918.36 and sits a hair below that level now.
ESOA +.94 to 8.02 on volume of 569k, the heaviest in 2 years ..... evidently it's gotten onto the radar of traders for whatever reason. I'm still holding but will be out ahead of the Dec Q1 earnings in mid Feb.
CBBI -.08 to 9.92, I joined you in this bank ..... it's super cheap and has buyout potential at a sizable premium or a sharp increase in price if they uplist to the Nasdaq.
PSIX +.10 to 2.10, I joined you with a few shares this morning ..... but it's so cheap it makes me wonder if the numbers are sustainable. The suffered a big loss in 2021 and then a decent profit in 2022 on sharply higher gross margins and reduced expenses. That trend continues through 9 mos of 2024. I'll be interested to see the Q4 results. Glad they're filing 10K's and Q's.
GTLS +4 to 114, has been hammered lately, down from 130 last week, after the Biden administration announced a freeze on further LNG project approvals. However the company reiterated it's medium term guidance.
I added a few shares this morning.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/biden-pauses-approvals-for-lng-exports-3d065745?st=nms4hw37xozcnpj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19604135-chart-industries-reiterates-medium-term-financial-targets
XLK annual returns compared to the S&P 500 since 2004 ..... it's been a good ETF to dollar cost average into each month and not pay capital gains taxes until you sell (except for minor annual distributions that occur) - almost as effective as an IRA in deferring taxes if one holds XLK continuously for many years or even decades.
XLK $SPX
Year Year End Price % Change Year End Price % Change Outperformance
2003 20.09 1111.92
2004 21.11 5.1% 1211.92 9.0% -3.6%
2005 20.90 -1.0% 1248.29 3.0% -3.9%
2006 23.26 11.3% 1418.30 13.6% -2.0%
2007 26.66 14.6% 1468.36 3.5% 10.7%
2008 15.41 -42.2% 903.25 -38.5% -6.0%
2009 22.93 48.8% 1115.10 23.5% 20.5%
2010 25.19 9.9% 1257.64 12.8% -2.6%
2011 25.45 1.0% 1257.60 0.0% 1.0%
2012 28.85 13.4% 1426.19 13.4% 0.0%
2013 35.74 23.9% 1848.36 29.6% -4.4%
2014 41.35 15.7% 2058.90 11.4% 3.9%
2015 42.83 3.6% 2043.94 -0.7% 4.3%
2016 48.36 12.9% 2238.83 9.5% 3.1%
2017 63.95 32.2% 2673.61 19.4% 10.7%
2018 61.98 -3.1% 2506.85 -6.2% 3.4%
2019 91.67 47.9% 3230.78 28.9% 14.8%
2020 130.02 41.8% 3756.07 16.3% 22.0%
2021 173.87 33.7% 4766.18 26.9% 5.4%
2022 124.44 -28.4% 3839.50 -19.4% -11.2%
2023 192.48 54.7% 4769.83 24.2% 24.5%
2024 YTD 201.75 4.8% 4890.97 2.5% 2.2%
Aggregate 904.2% 339.9% 128.3%
https://www.sectorspdrs.com/sectortracker
XLK (technology) has been by far the best performing of the nine S&P sector spiders over the past 20 years - dividends are not included, but only XLU (utilities) has a significant yield.
PRICE CHANGE SINCE 12/31/2003
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
XLK 904% 201.75 20.09
XLY 445% 171.68 31.49
XLV 365% 139.27 29.96
$SPX 340% 4890.97 1111.92
XLI 324% 113.43 26.76
XLP 233% 72.63 21.78
XLE 215% 84.25 26.75
XLB 209% 82.51 26.69
XLU 162% 61.21 23.33
XLF 69% 38.65 22.84
XLC 54% 77.68 50.58
XLRE 28% 38.49 30.16
AVERAGE RETURN = 279%
OPTT (0.30) - I owned this stock over a decade ago. Ocean Power Technologies designs and produces electricity generating buoys that convert the power of ocean waves into energy. Seemed like a great idea. It works but economically it's too inefficient to be viable. They've had the equivalent of a 1 for 200 reverse split over the past decade or so and constantly issue new shares to raise capital. Management and the BoD are well paid for accomplishing nothing.
For the past few months I've been short a tiny position of OPTT. IB allows the shorting of penny stocks. Now I'm making a profit on the short side, although it's just lunch money.
PGNT is a 5% shareholder, but I fail to see how they can make any money off the technology. Maybe they just want to liquidate the assets. They've issued scathing criticism of management's track record. We'll see how it plays out.
YTD Index Performance ..... small and microcaps are back to underperforming .... even the S&P Equal Weight is down slightly YTD.
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 6% 9232.96 8716.33
$NDX 4% 17516.99 16825.93
$RLG 4% 3176.17 3051.68
$COMP 3% 15510.5 15011.35
$SPX 3% 4894.16 4769.83
$DJI 1% 38049.13 37689.54
$DJT 0% 15952.78 15898.85
$RLV 0% 1632.75 1629.42
$SPXEW 0% 6385.7 6402.89
$MID -1% 2759.99 2781.54
$W5KMICRO-2% 13092.93 13358.71
$SML -2% 1287.85 1318.26
$RUMIC -3% 712.61 731.01
$RUT -3% 1975.88 2027.07
$DJU -4% 848.6 881.67
ARKK is Cathie Woods' ETF ..... it has been a very poor performer recently and over the long term. She had a great year in 2020, but otherwise has been underperforming the broader market badly. For the trailing 5 year period her fund is roughly unchanged while the S&P500 has nearly doubled. Check the long term chart.
ARK Innovation posted a negative 11.6% total return this year so far, says Morningstar Direct. That makes it the fourth worst-performing actively traded U.S. diversified ETF this year.
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-cathie-woods-fund-suffers-473-million-hit-from-2-ugly-stocks/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqEAgAKgcICjDOm4YLMJD1gwMwhObvAQ&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=AZsHK_mxZvWDyTyonFlGKNeW4rBMNyjcIGZifDA2otrFh2R6O85GcFSMZaQFUnziCv6vsRS_vOO1p7dSLd1sQqioBfq78KqzydjPHpE%3D&gaa_ts=65b3f352&gaa_sig=9qE_rpSfQeiUnhvJd43ARhg0qed5t_UDcLAj9KTiLM-hT7NZLSpgcIkqiSKQAMYQ3EAH9MbnAJIc0Vje8yBdhg%3D%3D
Wade - if you bet on the wrong direction for intraday stock moves 90% of the time, then that's an excellent contrary record and easy to fix. You simply have to be disciplined and do the opposite of what your intuition tells you to do. Then you'll be right 90% of the time.
TSLA - this WSJ article might interest you -
Even after a 16% fall so far this year, its stock trades at 56 times forward earnings, compared with 29 times for its AI chip supplier Nvidia.
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-makes-it-harder-for-investors-to-ignore-its-problems-511a2c40?st=7kkqjeupsfunjzv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
AAOI -.40 to 16.19, won't be reporting until late February. Last year it was on Feb 23rd. Annual reports are audited and therefore come out later than quarterly reports.
IBM +18 to 192, a great day for "big blue".
briefing -
IBM beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides to FY24 CC revs growth in mid-single digits (173.97 +0.04) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $3.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.79; revenues rose 4.1% year/year to $17.38 bln vs the $17.29 bln FactSet Consensus.
Software segment revs rose 3.1% yr/yr (+2.0% CC) to $7.5 bln.
Hybrid Platform & Solutions up 2% (+1% CC); Red Hat up 8% (+7% CC); Automation up 1% (flat CC); Data & AI up 1%; Security down -5% (-6?).
Transaction Processing up 5% (+4% CC).
Consulting segment revenue rose 5.8% yr/yr (+5.5% CC) to $5.0 bln.
Business Transformation up 6 percent, up 5 percent at constant currency.
Technology Consulting up 5 percent, up 4 percent at constant currency.
Application Operations up 7 percent, up 6 percent at constant currency.
Infrastructure segment revenue rose 2.7% yr/yr (+2.0% CC) to $4.6 bln.
Hybrid Infrastructure up 8 percent, up 7 percent at constant currency.
IBM zSystems up 8 percent -- Distributed Infrastructure up 8 percent, up 7 percent at constant currency.
Infrastructure Support down 9 percent.
2024 Outlook: Co expects constant currency revenue growth consistent with its mid-single digit model. Currency is expected to be about a one-point headwind to revenue growth.
Co guides to FY24 FCF about $12 bln.
CNXC -15 to 88, looks oversold. Nov Q4 earnings beat estimates, but guidance for Q1 and 2024 was mildly disappointing. It's now trading at a forward PE of merely 7.3 based on FY24 adj EPS guidance of $12.10 midpoint. For FY23 they posted adj EPS of 11.45. Concentrix is a business services company.
briefing -
Concentrix beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (103.90 -0.54) :
Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $3.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.29 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.07; revenues rose 36.0% year/year to $2.23 bln vs the $2.2 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Feb), sees EPS of $2.51-2.65, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.17 FactSet Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $2.360-2.406 bln vs. $2.45 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $11.69-12.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $12.81 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $9.51-9.70 bln vs. $9.8 bln FactSet Consensus.
For chart technicians, there's a notable gap in the low $80's from back in November that might get filled ....
I picked up a small starter position this morning.
https://ir.concentrix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/concentrix-reports-fiscal-2023-fourth-quarter-and-full-year
TSLA -22 to 185, the chart looks bearish according to this article - it may hit $150 or lower in the coming months - maybe that would be a better time to buy ?
Tesla Stock Will Head Lower From Here. The Charts Don't Lie. -- Barrons.com
(Dow Jones 01/25 10:33:32)
Al Root
Tesla stock is falling after the company posted disappointing quarterly
earnings and hosted an equally disappointing earnings conference call.
Investors are likely wondering where the stock will go next. For some
guidance, they can forget fundamentals and look at stock charts.
Market technicians and traders look at chart patterns to get a sense of
where any stock can go over the short and medium term. Charts have a way of
aggregating all the opinions of market players and can be useful for any
investor -- be they a bull or bear -- looking to overcome innate biases.
The setup is grim. Tesla stock was down 8.6% in premarket trading
Thursday, below $190 a share, after the company reported fourth-quarter
earnings of 71 cents a share. Wall Street was looking for 73 cents a share.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
"Tesla's key support near $208 is going to be sliced through today," said
Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. "But we usually let gaps down
settle and watch the next few days of trading before judging the magnitude
of the breakdown."
If Tesla stock closes below $208 for two consecutive Fridays then it is
headed toward $177, she says.
But Stockton does have some heartening advice. Don't "sell into weakness,
if you own Tesla," Stockton adds. "See if it can get back into the gap for a
better exit."
A significant drop, or rise, all at once is called "gapping down," or
"gapping up" in Wall Street parlance. Stocks that gap down tend to get back
some of the initial drop. That can happen with Tesla too, but that is
trading advice from Stockton, not investing advice.
The "$200 is the key level for Tesla and as long as the stock is under
there, price action and technical indicators will be challenged and biased
lower," adds 22V Research senior managing director John Roque. He is a
little more bearish than Stockton and says Tesla stock could eventually
retest the levels near $100 seen in early 2023.
That isn't what shareholders want to hear, but the charts don't lie. Of
course, things don't have to turn out that way. Demand, interest rates, and
investors' moods are all dynamic. Still, investors should brace for Tesla
stock to drift lower in the coming weeks.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones &
Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The
Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 25, 2024 10:33 ET (15:33 GMT)
TSLA -19 to 188, facing a lot of headwinds, especially strong competition in China from BYD and sagging demand growth in the US and Europe. It's a great company, but the valuation may still be too rich at roughly 50x analyst 2024 EPS estimates.
Analyst commentary from fly -
Tesla downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities
KGI Securities downgraded Tesla to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $213, down from $309. The company's Q4 earnings slightly missed estimates with gross margin down quarter-over-quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the shares "lack near term catalysts" but that it sees "bargain hunting opportunities" in the next three quarters. KGI believes Tesla's research and development investments and ramp up of next-generation vehicles could weigh on its gross margin recovery before the second half of 2025.
Tesla price target lowered to $270 from $310 at Mizuho
Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $270 from $310 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following last night's results. While Tesla did not guide 2024 volumes, it noted vehicle volume growth for the year may be notably lower than 2023, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to see Tesla as a global leader in electric vehicles but says 2024 could be a more challenging year with subsidy cuts and a stretched consumer.
2024 will be challenging year for Tesla, 2025 likely not better, says Bernstein
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi notes Tesla slightly missed consensus revenues, operating margins and EPS, but free cash flow was well above expectations. More sobering was Tesla's outlook. Tesla stated that unit growth would be "notably below" this year's rate, Bernstein points out, adding that it also did not provide guidance on auto gross margins, other than it was approaching the "limits" of cost reductions on existing vehicles, and that cost improvement in 2024 would be lower than 2023. The firm continues to believe that Tesla will need to lower price and experience lower margins to drive incremental volume above last year's 1.8M level. While 2024 will be a challenging year, it is becoming "increasingly apparent that 2025 will likely not be better," with continued pressure on growth and margins, Bernstein adds. The firm has an Underperform rating on the shares with a price target of $150.
Tesla price target lowered to $200 from $223 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $200 from $223 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm notes Tesla is trading down post market after cautious 2024 commentary. The company sees slowing delivery growth and a more limited ability to cut COGS. With recent pricing cut, margins likely fall in 2024, Wells adds.
Tesla seeing 'weak' growth until next-gen car comes in FY25, says Roth MKM
Roth MKM keeps a Neutral rating and $85 price target on Tesla after its "weak" Q4 results and the sixth sequential quarter of adjusted auto gross margin declines. Tesla management is now leaning on a next-gen vehicle to re-initiate growth in FY25 where the new modular manufacturing approach broadly elevates platform execution risk, and the firm sees multiple compression amid headwinds from sales mix and price cuts that likely stay negative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Roth MKM maintains its view that Tesla shares are "egregiously overvalued".
Tesla price target lowered to $315 from $350 at Wedbush
Wedbush lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $315 from $350 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm says it was "dead wrong expecting Musk and team to step up like adults in the room on the call and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price cuts, margin structure, and fluctuating demand... instead we got a high-level Tesla long term view with another train wreck conference call." Nonetheless, Wedbush says the long term story is intact for Tesla and that it truly believes EV adoption to a much broader mass market is around the corner with AI/FSD the future. However, the near-term "Category 4 hurricane" around price cuts and lack of granularity, guidance, and communication from Musk and Tesla is "a bitter pill to swallow for the bulls."
TSLA -1 to 208, might report "better than feared" numbers according to this earnings preview -
briefing -
Tesla earnings preview -- Stock can regain its charge with better-than-expected report, but price cuts and ramp of Cybertruck could further pressure margins (209.11 -0.03)
After the close, Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings with a conference call set to follow at 5:30 p.m. ET. The electric vehicle maker's earnings report is expected to be posted on the Investor Relations page of its website at about 4:05 p.m., followed soon thereafter by a press release.
The FactSet consensus estimates for EPS and revenue are $0.73 and $25.6 bln, respectively.
TSLA is coming off one of its worst earnings reports in recent history, missing EPS and revenue expectations for the first time since 2Q19. The main culprit continues to be TSLA's eroding margins as the company looks to keep demand healthy in a high interest rate environment by cutting prices.
In Q3, gross margin dipped by 30 bps qtr/qtr to 17.9%, while operating expenses jumped by 43% as TSLA ramped up investments in AI and full self-driving technologies and poured capital into the December launch of Cybertruck. Planned factory shutdowns were another factor, causing manufacturing efficiencies to decrease.
Gross margin and automotive gross margin will once again be front-and-center for tonight's earnings report. On the plus side, factory utilization should be higher in Q4, driving stronger efficiencies, while supply chain costs also improve. However, further price cuts and the launch of Cybertruck will counteract those tailwinds.
Labor costs are another item to keep an eye on. In December, union strikes in Sweden and Denmark struck TSLA, potentially leading to a less favorable collective bargaining agreement for the company.
On January 2, TSLA reported strong Q4 deliveries of 484K vehicles (+20%), edging past analysts' expectations. The outperformance was likely aided by a boost in orders ahead of the new year due to TSLA losing the $7,500 federal tax credit for 2024. In order to qualify for the EV tax credit, the manufacturer must not source any battery components that are manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern, including entities owned or controlled by the governments of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. It appears that TSLA did not meet that criteria.
In the shareholder deck, TSLA will likely provide production and delivery guidance for 2024. Last year, TSLA said that it expected to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 mln cars for the year. The company reached that goal, achieving total deliveries of 1,808,581 for 2023.
Last quarter, Elon Musk was a little more cautious about TSLA's production growth moving forward, stating that it's impossible to sustain a compound growth of 50% forever.
An area where Musk is expected to be quite exuberant about is AI and Dojo, TSLA's supercomputer that will power its full self-driving technology. Musk has proclaimed that Dojo and FSD will ultimately make the company's current financial metrics "look silly", but offered no timeline for when that may occur.
On December 1, the highly anticipated Cybertruck launch took place, but it didn't live up to the hype as TSLA disclosed that its most affordable version (which costs about $61K) won't be available until 2025. That starting price also happens to be about $20K more than TSLA had forecasted. Nonetheless, commentary regarding orders and production targets for Cybertruck will be of interest. TSLA has previously stated that its annual production target for Cybertruck is 250K.
Lastly, the stock has been stuck in reverse so far in 2024, falling by about 16% year-to-date, reflecting muted expectations and potentially setting the stock up for a rebound on a better-than-feared report. (PVIEW)
TSLA +1 to 210, reports after the bell ..... the weakest of the Mag 7 might disappoint on margin guidance. We'll see what happens. Options imply a 7% move tomorrow.
TSLA was $400+ just over 2 years ago.
S&P500 +30 to 4895, on verge of breaking over 4900. At this rate it will be at 5000 by early February. This market seems to be on steroids. Who knows when we'll finally get a minor 5% correction, let alone a major 10% correction ?
DRCT -.87 to 9.95, I have a few lowball GTC bid placed but none have hit yet ..... might be a good trader in the coming 2 months ahead of earnings probably out in late March. Those numbers will be audited, so could be a risky hold through the report. Scammy indeed, but that doesn't bother day traders.
The Magnificent 7 are driving the market higher although TSLA has become a drag on their overall performance - here's an interesting article -
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/22/business/magnificent-seven-stocks-tech.html
NVDA, META
ESOA +.64 to 6.74, breaking over $6 resistance to new all time highs on heavy early volume of 92k .... no news that I could find, but might be a newsletter recommendation or new analyst coverage. I'm still holding a tiny position. Wish I had added on that dip to 5.22 last week !
S&P500 +55 to 4836, breaking above resistance at 4800 to new all time highs .....
briefing -
Stocks are having a strong showing so far today. The three major indices are all trading near session highs, which has the S&P 500 above its all-time closing high (4,796) and tracking toward its all-time intraday high (4,818).
Carryover strength in semiconductor stocks has boosted the broader market. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is up 2.7% with nearly every component trading higher. NVIDIA (NVDA 587.87, +16.80, +2.9%), and other SOX components, reached new 52-week highs this session.
Today's positive bias also stems from favorable reactions to some earnings news, like Dow component Travelers (TRV 208.22, +9.87, +5.0%), which is up 5.0% following above-consensus earnings and revenue.
Interestingly, market breadth is negative despite gains in all the major indices and a 0.3% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). Decliners have a roughly 11-to-10 lead over advancers at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Seven of the S&P 500 sectors trade up while four trade down. The heavily-weighted information technology sector (+1.6%) is the top performer thanks to strength in its semiconductor and mega cap constituents. The communication services (+1.2%) and financial (+1.1%) sectors are also up more than 1.0%.
The utilities (-0.6%) and materials (-0.3%) sectors are the weakest performers so far.
Russell down nearly 6% YTD while the S&P is up 1% ..... unfortunately the small caps are underperforming once again after a strong finish to 2023.
NVDA is the 2nd best YTD gainer in the S&P, up an impressive 19% in a mere 3 weeks. Only JNPR is better at 27% due to a buyout.
HALO -.85 to 34.08, surprisingly weak despite the strong guidance for 2023, 2024 and beyond. I just skimmed the presentation, but will give it a more thorough read when I find the time. I continue to accumulate the stock and will be trading around my core position.
SSK - what's your plan for that huge 87% cash position ? Wait for a major correction ? What if the market remains range bound between 4700 and 4800 ? What if it breaks out over 4800 to new all time highs ? Will you go short again ?
I'm actually a bit surprised the market is holding up this well so far in 2024. It's going to take some bad news to trigger a major correction. Maybe earnings season will disappoint ?
GTEC +.36 to 3.34, a nice move on solid volume. This stock has a history of spikes higher, so maybe this is accumulation ahead of a bigger rally.
GEOS +1.07 to 14.16, nice alert yesterday in the high $12's ..... I managed to pick up a few shares under $13 after seeing your post. The energy sector is strong today due to surging oil prices related to the unrest in the middle east.
S&P500 +21 to 4801, now up for the year and above the all time record closing high of 4796 set in Jan 2022. Also nearing the all time intra-day high of 4818.
Wow, I'm glad the brutal 2% dip to start the year is over, LOL.
Producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in December - good news for the economy and inflation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/wholesale-prices-unexpectedly-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-positive-inflation-sign.html
AAOI -3.45 to 18.15, huge volatility today - high of $21.83, low of $16.70. That's a 31% range on no news ! Great for day traders, but easy to get burned.
S&P Industry YTD performance -
These are market cap weighted so a megacap can comprise a huge chunk of a particular industry.
Biotechnology 5%
Pharmaceuticals 5%
Passenger Airlines 5%
Interactive Media & Services 3%
Health Care Equipment & Supplies 3%
Electric Utilities 2%
Household Products 2%
Office REITs 2%
Diversified Telecom Services 2%
Health Care Providers & Services 2%
Insurance 2%
Diversified Financial Services 2%
Multi-Utilities 2%
Household Durables 1%
Containers & Packaging 1%
Multiline Retail 1%
Banks 1%
Communications Equipment 1%
Air Freight & Logistics 1%
Retail REITs 1%
Tobacco 1%
Semiconductors & Equipment 1%
Hotel & Resort REITs 1%
Software 1%
Food & Staples Retailing 1%
Specialty Retail 1%
Industrial REITs 0%
Health Care REITs 0%
Professional Services 0%
Residential REITs 0%
Beverages 0%
Food Products 0%
Building Products 0%
Construction Materials 0%
Distributors -1%
Industrial Conglomerates -1%
Consumer Finance -1%
Life Sciences Tools & Services -1%
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -1%
Leisure Products -1%
Ground Transportation -1%
Media -1%
Electrical Equipment -1%
Machinery -2%
IT Services -2%
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -2%
Indp Power&Renewable Electricity -2%
Trading Companies & Distributors -2%
Chemicals -2%
Entertainment -2%
Commercial Services & Supplies -2%
Specialized REITs -2%
Aerospace & Defense -3%
Tech Hardware, Storage & Periph's -3%
Electronic Equipment, Instruments -3%
Personal Products -3%
Capital Markets -3%
Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods -4%
Metals & Mining -5%
Automobiles -5%
Real Estate Manage & Develop -6%
Construction & Engineering -6%
Energy Equipment & Services -7%
Automobile Components -7%
Earnings season kicks off tomorrow morning with several big banks reporting along with UNH and DAL. It could effect market sentiment.
Bitcoin ETF decision is due out tomorrow -
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/secs-decision-on-spot-bitcoin-etfs-could-go-a-few-different-ways-96d76589?st=657aidl608inf7p&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/the-crypto-industry-holds-its-breath-in-anticipation-of-the-first-spot-bitcoin-etfs-fed067ec?st=2evvpg823g8fr60&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
btw, 0.1% of my portfolio is in Bitcoin at Coinbase. I've been buying a tiny fixed dollar amount monthly by bank withdrawal for a few years and am up around 60%. I don't think BTC has any fundamental value, but it has a lot of market value because it's so popular. Even so, I'd never want a .5% position, let alone several percent. I'm just in it for fun !
NVDA +3 to 525, yes, all my shares are covered with $475 and $500 calls, so I'll make a roughly 10%+ profit if the shares are called from me at option expirations in Jan and Mar. I'm satisfied with that, but maybe the stock is heading to $600 ?
GTEC investment loss - I'd like more detail but I think that's all the 10Q says about it. It varies quarterly, so hopefully they'll show some investment gains in Q4.