The market has had a great year. The FED's slightly more hawkish than expected stance has served as a catalyst for some overdue profit taking and perhaps a long awaited correction. We'll see if this selloff has any momentum or whether we get a bounce back tomorrow.

S&P500 -141 to 5909, finally a healthy selloff. I think it has further to go. Even TSLA is down 8%, giving back some of the recent huge gains.

Market selling off after the FED announcement -

briefing -

Market Briefing: Fed turns less dovish

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25-4.50%. It was not a unanimous vote. Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented in favor of leaving the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.50-4.75%.

The Summary of Economic Projections, released at the same time as the policy directive that said the "...Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," showed an upward revision in the median estimate for the change in 2024 real GDP (to 2.5% from 2.0%) and 2025 real GDP (to 2.1% from 2.0%), the 2024 PCE inflation rate (to 2.4% from 2.3%) and 2025 PCE inflation rate (to 2.5% from 2.1%), the 2024 core PCE inflation rate (to 2.8% from 2.6%) and 2025 core PCE inflation rate (to 2.5% from 2.2%), and a downward revision to the 2024 unemployment rate (to 4.2% from 4.4%) and 2025 unemployment rate (to 4.3% from 4.4%).

Notably, the median estimate for the federal funds rate in 2025 was raised to 3.9% from 3.4%, signaling an estimate for 50-basis points of easing in 2025 versus the prior estimate of 100 basis points. The longer run rate also got bumped up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

The knee-jerk reaction to the Fed news included a sell-off in stocks and bonds, as the balance of today's information reflected a less dovish-minded Fed. The 2-yr note yield, at 4.22% in front of the FOMC decision, shot up to 4.32% in its wake while the 10-yr note yield, at 4.39% in front of the decision, jumped to 4.45%. The U.S. Dollar Index went from 107.00 to 107.58.

Whether there is any notable reversal in these initial moves is apt to hinge on what Fed Chair Powell says at his press conference, which begins at 2:30 p.m. ET, and how he says it. For the time being, the market has been forced to contend with a less friendly development than what it has grown accustomed to seeing in recent weeks and what it had hoped to see in coming weeks and months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.5%; the S&P 500 is down 0.7%; the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 are down 0.7%.

PSIX -1.11 to 17.29, I got 2 more fills this morning, but still have only bought back 1/3 of my peak position. I'm accumulating and hope it goes lower so that I can buy back even cheaper.

The selloff does have momentum so I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $15 or lower in the coming days.

That's a good January bounce list. I already own AES and WBA. Several others are on my watchlist.

WU -.05 to 11.14, I joined you and the board in this one. Hefty, seemingly safe, 8.4% yield. I also hedged with covered calls, selling the Feb $11 calls for $0.55.

TSLA +7 to 470, a new all time high ..... it might be $500+ by year end since it goes up every day. But at some point there'll be a lot of profit taking and the stock will go down. I'll be shocked if it hits $750 next year, let alone $1000, but who knows ?? If the earnings disappoint it could be a down year.

The Magnificent 7 are up a hefty 68% YTD and a stunning 267% since the market bottom on 10/13/22 - By comparison the S&P500 is up 27% and 66% for the two periods - next year will surely be more challenging and perhaps a down year -

 
 YTD - 
  
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 NVDA     167%       132          49.52 
 TSLA     86%        463.02       248.48 
 META     76%        624.24       353.96 
 AMZN     53%        232.93       151.94 
 GOOG     41%        198.16       140.93 
 AAPL     30%        251.04       192.53 
 MSFT     20%        451.59       376.04 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            68% 
  
 Since 10/13/22 - 
  
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 NVDA     1004%      132          11.96 
 META     379%       624.24       130.29 
 TSLA     109%       463.02       221.72 
 AMZN     107%       232.93       112.53 
 GOOG     99%        198.16       99.71 
 MSFT     93%        451.59       234.24 
 AAPL     76%        251.04       142.99 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            267%
                            

SMCI is down 75% from the March highs, so it now has insufficient market cap to remain in the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX. Bloomberg reports the capital raise - read the article I linked to in my prior post.

Bloomberg -

Super Micro Computer Inc. has brought on Evercore Inc. to help the company raise capital, according to people familiar with the matter, as the embattled server maker looks to shore up its finances.

SMCI -2.05 to 34.40 on reports they are considering a capital raise. Also they will be bounced from the Nasdaq 100 next Monday due insufficient market cap. Furthermore, year end tax loss selling is a factor with the stock way down from the 52wk high of $120+.

I'm accumulating and hedging with weekly covered calls. It's been a great trader the past few weeks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-13/super-micro-computer-is-said-to-tap-evercore-to-raise-capital?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczNDM2MjYyOSwiZXhwIjoxNzM0OTY3NDI5LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTTzhYQklUMVVNMFcwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0MDZEMkY0Njc2Q0Q0QUREODU4N0E5MDY0QjExNzJBMyJ9.xwddFyzejM4UgJCHTY0H5FvDC9RrGzwPxJtdLJZRtHw

PSIX -2.41 to 18.89, way down from $35 just 5 weeks ago .... I'm accumulating.

PLTR (72.51) may be nearing a peak according to Barrons this article -

https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-stock-price-pltr-valuation-d302ddf6?st=7BnkMc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

TSLA +24 to 425, now up a stunning 69% since $251 on election day .... Musk is a genius for spending $250M to help get Trump elected. His net worth has risen by roughly $150B since the election.

WBA -.65 to 9.77, easy come, easy go, way down from the spike up to 11.30 yesterday. I guess investors are skeptical about the potential buyout.

CVS looks cheap at $52, but they did have a big earnings miss last quarter.

UBER -3.72 to 61.24, quite a drop from the all time high of 87 set just 2 months ago. Maybe it retests the Aug low of $55 ?

I put it on my watchlist, thanks.

ETCC - maybe your orders were being held at different market makers. The sale of 5000 shares at $1.20 happened at 9:30:03 according to time and sales data -

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/environmental-tectonics-pk-ETCC/trades

TSLA +8 to 409, I think it will break over $414.50 very soon, perhaps already today or within a few days. But eventually it will also experience a sharp correction. Maybe it hits $500 first ?

ETCC - I'd guess the sell at market order got routed to the first market maker that opened a bid .... your market maker probably hadn't yet opened a bid at exactly 9:30am. I doubt very much that they'll give you a fill retroactively, but no harm in making an inquiry and lodging a complaint.

I just placed an order for SMCI at the ask of 40.71 and it executed immediately.

Schwab is now accepting extended hours orders (24 hour trading) on selected stocks. I just successfully entered a test order for GM.

WBA +2.33 to 11.18 on news that it may be acquired -

https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/walgreens-sycamore-partners-private-equity-deal-5d14c920?st=KefAqM&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I own a decent sized position, but all hedged with $10 covered calls .... nonetheless a nice winner for me if the stock gets called at $10.

TSLA (395) Model Q to be available in 1st half 2025 according to this report -

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-q-price-specs-rumor/

DXYZ - congratulations on the nice trading gains. I think it's overvalued, but so are lots of other stocks. Popularity, sector and momentum are big factors in driving many stocks higher.

S&P500 (6062) Oppenheimer raises target to 7100 by end of 2025 .... if that happens, the will truly be overbought !

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oppenheimer-stoltzfus-top-p-500-063953215.html

NLY (19.94) yields 13.1%. I own a small position and also collect covered call premiums. It's a mortgage REIT. I have a much larger position in RITM, the yield is less at 9%, but it's safer.

TSLA +2 to 391 after hitting 404 this morning, but that's still below the all time record high of $414 hit back in November 2021. Even so anyone who has been dollar cost averaging into the stock over the past 5 years has done extremely well. There's been plenty of volatility including a crash down to $101 in January 2023.

 
 Trend Start  Price         Trend End     Price      Gain/Loss %   Days in Trend 
  
 12/31/19      26.81         02/04/20      64.6           141%         24 
 02/04/20      64.6          02/06/20      45.8          -29.1%        3 
 02/06/20      45.8          02/19/20      62.99          37.5%        9 
 02/19/20      62.99         02/28/20      40.77         -35.3%        8 
 02/28/20      40.77         03/03/20      53.8           32%          3 
 03/03/20      53.8          03/18/20      23.37         -56.6%        12 
 03/18/20      23.37         03/26/20      37.33          59.7%        7 
 03/26/20      37.33         04/02/20      29.76         -20.3%        6 
 04/02/20      29.76         04/30/20      57.99          94.9%        20 
 04/30/20      57.99         05/01/20      45.54         -21.5%        2 
 05/01/20      45.54         07/13/20      119.67         162.8%       50 
 07/13/20      119.67        08/11/20      91            -24%          22 
 08/11/20      91            09/01/20      167.5          84.1%        16 
 09/01/20      167.5         09/08/20      109.96        -34.4%        5 
 09/08/20      109.96        09/15/20      153.98         40%          6 
 09/15/20      153.98        09/24/20      117.1         -24%          8 
 09/24/20      117.1         01/25/21      300.13         156.3%       84 
 01/25/21      300.13        02/23/21      206.33        -31.3%        21 
 03/04/21      200           02/24/21      248.33         24.2%        7 
 02/24/21      248.33        03/05/21      179.83        -27.6%        8 
 03/05/21      179.83        04/14/21      260.26         44.7%        28 
 04/14/21      260.26        05/19/21      182.33        -29.9%        26 
 05/19/21      182.33        11/04/21      414.5          127.3%       119 
 11/04/21      414.5         11/15/21      326.2         -21.3%        8 
 11/15/21      326.2         11/22/21      400.65         22.8%        6 
 11/22/21      400.65        12/21/21      295.37        -26.3%        21 
 12/21/21      295.37        01/04/22      402.67         36.3%        10 
 01/04/22      402.67        02/24/22      233.33        -42.1%        36 
 02/24/22      233.33        04/05/22      384.29         64.7%        29 
 04/05/22      384.29        05/24/22      206.86        -46.2%        35 
 05/24/22      206.86        06/02/22      264.21         27.7%        7 
 06/02/22      264.21        06/16/22      208.69        -21%          11 
 06/16/22      208.69        08/16/22      314.67         50.8%        42 
 08/16/22      314.67        01/06/23      101.81        -67.6%        100 
 01/06/23      101.81        02/16/23      217.65         113.8%       29 
 02/16/23      217.65        03/13/23      163.91        -24.7%        17 
 03/13/23      163.91        03/31/23      207.79         26.8%        15 
 03/31/23      207.79        04/27/23      152.37        -26.7%        19 
 04/27/23      152.37        07/19/23      299.29         96.4%        57 
 07/19/23      299.29        08/18/23      212.36        -29%          23 
 08/18/23      212.36        09/15/23      278.98         31.4%        20 
 09/15/23      278.98        10/31/23      194.07        -30.4%        33 
 10/31/23      194.07        12/28/23      265.13         36.6%        41 
 12/28/23      265.13        04/22/24      138.8         -47.6%        79 
 04/22/24      138.8         07/11/24      271            95.2%        56 
 07/11/24      271           08/05/24      182           -32.8%        18 
 08/05/24      182           12/06/24      389.49         114%         88
                            

ASTS +2.69 to 25.20, this satellite stock has been a great trader for me and I continue to rack up weekly profits by collecting high option premiums on PUTs and covered CALLs that I write.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175200755&txt2find=asts

Here's an interesting article in the WSJ about the market being wildly overvalued -

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-market-overvalued-forecasts-2025-e073e1d4?st=NMFNmq&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Bitcoin breaks over $100,000 ands hits $105,000 .... it's the new Gold of the digital age. Up 130% YTD and roughly 500% the past two years.

BTC

UAMY +.24 to 1.31, on a tear lately, up around 400% from the July lows .... huge volume of 4.3M so far today.

Great call on this one. Regrettably I don't own any.

Goldman Sachs expects just 3% nominal annualized returns in the S&P500 over the next decade, barely above the inflation rate - it will be a stock pickers market if they're correct.

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.html

SPY

OPTT recently began trading stock options .... picked up a few shares at $0.38 and sold the Dec $0.50 Calls for $0.10 .... speculative, but I think my cost basis of $0.28 is a good risk/reward. The company is making good headway towards profitability and they can easily raise capital ATM given the huge volumes that the stock trades daily.

SMCI +2.04 to 44.04, I would have been better off buying the stock outright but at least I made some bucks writing the naked PUTs.

OPTT -.33 to .37, getting pummeled after the earnings preannouncement disappoints, but still way up from your initial post at $0.17. Nice trading.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ocean-power-technologies-pre-releases-211500421.html

LPA - the share buyback news is from a week ago. The rally began at about 3pm today. Maybe a newsletter recommendation ???

VCIG -.77 to 3.62 on volume of 6M. Volume exploded to an incredible 257M last Wednesday after a $24M "conditional" AI contract was announced. That's at least 100x the float, so day traders and momentum players had an average holding period of under 4 minutes .... not exactly long term investors, lol. Volume is still huge but fading quickly. I'd guess the stock trends lower in the coming days as the frenzied trading tapers down and leaves bag holders dumping at a loss. I could of course be wrong and will be watching from the sidelines. Good luck to those trading it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vci-global-receives-conditional-letter-133300676.html

OPTT +.13 to .63, now up an astounding 270% since your post just 10 days ago. Might be a risky hold through their preliminary Oct Q2 earnings announcement after the bell today. They've never reported a quarterly profit in their history, but they've been cutting costs and generating some revenue, so it should be a good y/y comparison. They've also been issuing lots of new shares in an ATM capital raise.

SMCI +4.05 to 36.69, I just sold some $36 Puts expiring this Friday for $2.35 .... that gets me a cost basis of $33.65 if they get assigned. The stock could stay range bound in the $30's until the 10K and 10Q gets filed after BMO completes the audit.

SMCI - Susan Giordano employed many independent experts to review the financials -

PR -

The Special Committee’s rigorous investigation took over three months, with independent counsel devoting over 9,000 hours and the Secretariat forensic accounting team over 2,500 hours for the Review. As part of that process, the following investigative actions were taken:

Extensive document collection, review, and analysis of roughly 4.1 terabytes of data, consisting of over 9 million documents from 89 individuals and an additional hard drive collection.

Conducted 68 witness interviews of current and former employees, management, advisors, and Board members.

The Special Committee employed more than 50 attorneys from Cooley and outside contract review attorneys, and employed a team of forensic accounting specialists from Secretariat.

Extensive meetings with Deloitte and EY, the Company’s former auditors.

SMCI +6.21 to 38.85 in premarket after the independent special committee finds no misconduct, nor is a restatement of financials expected -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-announces-completion-review-independent-140500422.html