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Hweb-MVCO
With cash, earnings and the value of RMX shares, MVCO is getting into the "big bargain" range. I have owned for almost 2 years and have been adding on weakness from time to time. It has become my largest market cap position as I have been a buyer again over the past 2 weeks.
On the down side, there has been little news, and I really don't know what to expect for Q1. It is in a good industry, but fuel costs and the huge increases in aggregate/construction materials costs over the past year add some uncertainty to the profit picture.
Tmcal
10B - DNO.ol
I have about a 7 bagger with DNO since Rainman brought it to the board about 16 months ago, and I am holding for one of your screen name, or better. I almost tried to trade it with some of the peaks and valleys, but I did not want to be out of it because you never know when it will have news. I am surprised the Yemen update has had little price impact today. I may add to my position with any weakness.
Tmcal
TGB and EZM
Both are up in premarket. Two months ago the price differential narrowed significantly between the two. Since then, TGB has appreciated more rapidly. I used to own 70k shares of TGB and 20K Shares of EZM. I have been gradully shifting out of TGB, down to 23k shares and increased EZM position to over 80K. Love both stocks, but feel EZM has more value short and long term, while TGB may be getting a little pricey.
Tmcal
Wade--
You said you were down only $.06 for the week is not being down. Must be a misprint. This has been some of the worst 4 days of my investment life where each day one or two stocks really are slammed, often for earnings that are decent but not good enough. I am holding and basically like all of my holdings. Maybe tomorrow or next week will be better.
Tmcal
MSGI
My CESV post was accidentally posted by me to the wrong board, so here it is again:
Watch out below, here I come:
With the time bomb of CESV in my Pick 6, I am confident I will eventually take over the bottom rung of the ladder, and probably hold on to it to the end. It is also not looking like my energy and mineral picks will perform strongly in the short run. At least I only have DNO and RGV in my real portfolio, and I am still above water since I have owned them for some time. Watch out below.
tmcal
Watch out below, here I come:
With the time bomb of CESV in my Pick 6, I am confident I will eventually take over the bottom rung of the ladder, and probably hold on to it to the end. It is also not looking like my energy and mineral picks will perform strongly in the short run. At least I only have DNO and RGV in my real portfolio, and I am still above water since I have owned them for some time. Watch out below.
tmcal
ALDA
4th Q earnings of $2.7 million, $.48 per fully diluted share, after $500,000 of obsolesence and Sarbannes Oxley expenses. Stock up 10% in aftermarket.
Tmcal
UVIH
Wade, I agree and represent 11,000 of the 15,000 traded today.
tmcal
DigiT
For the new issues, is the List SP the price of the offering, the price the stock opened at, or the price the stock closed at on the first day of trading?
Also, stocks that move to an exchange usually announce the move a couple of days before they start trading on the new exchange and they have a nice runup in price during that time. It is difficult to research that info, but it distorts and understates the stock price benefits of the move.
Tmcal
DigiT
Lot of work. I am a little surprised that performance for both new issues and listings on a new exchange is not better. I looked at only a few, but noticed a mistake with EZM where I think you reversed the two prices. Given the detail of the work, it may have happened on a few others, and you may want to check. Anyway, very interesting.
Tmcal
MVCO
I believe MVCO will break out to new highs and into the 20's over the next 3 weeks. The value is not yet recognized, but it reports on March 9. It reported $.60 EPS last quarter but paid only at a 4% tax rate, and it is not clear what other tax loss amounts they still have. I have not quite figured out the balance sheet (I am not an accountant) on how they account for the value of the 53% owned ReadyMix sub (RMX) which they have approx. 2 million shares, but at $16.65/share, that represents $33.3 million. RMX went public at $11 in September, 2005. In addition, at the end of 3Q, MVCO had $27.68 million of cash and equivalents, which at 4.2 million of FD shares is over $6.50/share of cash. The company has easy comps going forward and could earn any where from $1.50 to $2.50/share in 2006, again depending on the tax situation. With 4.2 million of FD shares currently priced at $15, $6.50/share of cash, over $7/share of value in the RMX subsidiary, and the potential to report earnings in the $2/share range in 2006, MVCO could be a no brainer for the rest of the year. Since MVCO owns 53% of RMX, it somehow includes RMX earnings in with it's earnings.
Disclosure: I own a bunch.
Tmcal
UVIH
Intereting. The stock did not trade after about 1:15 p.m. EST even though I had an order in at the ask the last 2 hours of the day. Problem, or did the market maker go home sick?
Tmcal
SSK and/or Len:
It is hard to say how long trading may be suspended for CESV. Could trade tomorrow, next week, next month or never. Usually, as we all know, bad news will result, but basically we have no news except for the trading suspension. So, am I prohibited from freezing or trading out of CESV while trading is suspended? I think I know your answer, but it is an interesting question.
I knew I should have left CESV out of my picks. I knew the information that is generally available on the stock, but I did not own it, luckily, even though I have considered buying it for a trade since it has been volatile all month. Anyway, I picked it as a wild card possible flyer, and that is what it is.
Your response will not matter a great deal since I believe my staying with energy has been a "baaaad" decision. Look forward to your response.
tmcal
CLWY
Bad trade of 5900 shares at $.07 instead of $.70. Will it be corrected?
Tmcal
My pick is 03/02/06 at 10:32 a.m.
Tmcal6
Whyme - CSTL
Thanks for the additional information. I think you may be correct that it could be an interesting trade.
Tmcal
Whyme, Re CSTL
Do you know the amount of tax credits remaining? It seems they could have credited all remaining tax credits to the balance sheet in Q4/04, and they could start to pay taxes again next year. If that is the case, current PE ratios are distorted and they will drop going forward. Could be fairly valued now.
tmcal
HRBN
Earnings for Q4 will be $.16-$.18 based on PR today.
Tmcal
AEY
YoY looks good, but sequential shows a decline in revenues and flat net income. AEY appears fairly valued.
Tmcal
DNO
Most likely down on "Muslim" exposure. Yemen well news was last week and in my opinion not material to the big picture.
Tmcal6
ERS
Man, sale my last 2000 shares at @ $19.75 and it continues on up to almost $20.50. Live and learn.
Tmcal
TGIS
The announcement of the conference call is not for tomorrow, it is for February 17.
Tmcal
Len - ARSD
Len, I picked it, and you all told me I had to replace it since it is not a listed on the BB.
Tmcal6
SSK: Ref-LKAI
Liked your post over the weekend and felt LKAI looked promising for 2006. Nice runup today, and I think it has more potential over the next 6 months. Thanks again.
Tmcal
Japan News:
Japan's Nikkei Falls More Than 2 Percent
Sunday January 22, 7:56 pm ET
Japan's Benchmark Stock Index Declines More Than 2 Percent in Early Trading As Unease Continues
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's benchmark stock index declined more than 2 percent in early trade Monday as the market's unease continued over a criminal probe into prominent Internet company Livedoor Co.
The Nikkei 225 was down 326.94 points, or 2.08 percent, at 15,369.75 points by 9:30 a.m.
The index last week fell 4.6 percent, a stunning drop triggered largely by investors' anxiety over an investigation by public prosecutors into possible fraud at Livedoor, an Internet startup that has grown by acquiring dozens of other companies.
Traders also took a cue from Wall Street where stocks plunged on Friday on lackluster earnings from General Electric Co. and Citigroup Inc., while crude oil futures surged to more than $68 per barrel.
The Dow dropped 213.32, or 1.96 percent, to 10,667.39, the largest one-day decline since April 15, when the index slipped 1.9 percent. It was also the biggest one-day point drop since the Dow lost 307.29 on March 24, 2003. The Nasdaq dropped 54.11, or 2.35 percent, to 2,247.70.
Traders expect the Nikkei's downward trade to continue as the Livedoor probes continue.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange said Sunday that it will boost its trading capacity, but said it would keep shortened trading sessions after a flood of orders forced the bourse to curtail trading last Wednesday.
Following successful system tests over the weekend, the exchange -- the world's second-biggest -- said it can now handle 5 million transactions daily, up from the current 4.5 million.
The exchange will continue to shorten the afternoon session by 30 minutes, and will end trading if the number of trades hits 4.5 million, according to the bourse.
In currency trading, the dollar was at 115.16 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 9 a.m. Friday, down 0.10 yen from late Friday in New York. The euro rose to $1.2173 from $1.2137 late Friday in New York.
MSGI
All three of those stocks were up 2-4% in overseas markets. The US pink sheet equivalent is often adjusted just once a day on yahoo, often hours after the market closes. You can follow the progress of the stocks on Yahoo, throught DNO.ol, PAR.ol and SDRL.ol, but it will be priced in NOKs.
Tmcal
Amazing--
I think the action in Japan was more related to Intel and Yahoo than anything else. The Livedoor "scandal" is peanuts compared to the U.S. corporate scandals, and if U.S. markets stabilize, which I think they will, Japan markets will stabilize soon. U.S. after market reaction to Intel and Yahoo is overdone also. I think this will be another buying opportunity real soon.
Tmcal
Yield
China? or Japan? I know about Japan. China does not have the systems in place to handle large volumes either, but I have not seen any news on China.
Tmcal
SSK & Len:
I think there is one double count on the stock list: there is one DNO.ol and two DTNOF.pk, which is the pk equivalent. That changes the # of picks and sheep count slightly, but no big deal. I think that stock may be the only one with that issue, but doesn't hurt for someone else to check.
Again, great job for a lot of work. I think all the changes will make for a lot of interest in the board, and even though the contest is about 11 weeks shorter, I bet there will be quite a few more total posts on this PSL2 Board compared to the PSL1 Board.
Tmcal6
Len & SSK
Sorryk, I just read the message on my disallowed pick. My first choice as a substitute is MRSJF.pk. I believe it satisfies the rules for foreign stocks. If it does not and it is also disallowed, please put me down for MVCO as a second alternate. I don't think I included it in my original 6, but I may have. If that is already in my 6, then my second alternate is NCNC.ob. Hopefully this message is clear. Thanks again.
Tmcal6
DNO
I have to learn to keep some powder dry. I had no cash to buy more, but I have a fair sized position already.
DNO mentioned there are other companies proceeding with exploration in the Kurdistan zone and I bet one or more are Chinese, since the Chinese built the DNO drill rig and interpretation (reading between the lines) some of the sections in one of Roguedolphins posts that discussed the Chinese "interest" in Kurdistan.
I think Iraq will need outside help to develop the oil resources, and Kurdistan is likely to be the safest area for future development, assuming a new Iraq government is successful.
I feel comfortable that we have likely seen the low for DNO in 2006. At least I hope so. :)
Tmcal
RR; DNO
I was just going to post when I saw your post on DNO. I agree with you. Wish I had some more cash to buy at this level. Two days in a row with ~10% losses is not fun. While both issues are concerns, I think they will turn out OK in the next few months. Maybe DNO will make a nice pick 6 now.
Tmcal
DNO: Pmaca
Thanksk, pmaca, that could explain it. That would be better than a major drilling problem in that area, and it is possibly a positive if the Italian major/operator feels it gives some political leverage.
Tmcal
DNO: RRainman
Fire sale on DNO today. Down 9%. No news that I can find.
Tmcal
New Year--
Unlike a few others on this board, I am expecting a good start for the stocks supported on this board, if not the entire market, in the new year. The "down" December surprised a lot of investors, and a nice start in January may surprise again. I did very well this year while the broad market generally went sidewise, and I expect it to continue and stay 100% invested until something happens to indicate the economy is truly slowing down. Good luck to all VMCers in the New Year.
Tmcal
CWS9 - Ditto on Congrats.
I was glad to just make it into the Top 10, and I am glad to be a cardholding member of the Sheep Club. I believe it is the nature of the board that there will always be a Sheep Club in future PSLs even with blind picks because of the ongoing discussion/focus on value stocks that exists on this board. I started to gravitate toward this investment theme in March, 2003, and I have been well rewarded and I am thankful in the new year. I hope everyone does well in the new year and in future PSLs, because that would add up to another good year for members of this board.
Tmcal
R59: Ref. DNO
You can get quotes on a lot of European equities at the site
www.europeaninvestor.com. You do not have to be a member. You can get the quotes in any currency, right from the home page. I bought mine through Schwab's international desk. I got Oslo market pricing, but paid a $250 commission on 5000 pre-split shares, which added 5 cents/share to my cost. Worked fine for a decent size order. Wish I had bought more.
Tmcal
Rrainman--DNO
DNO had a big gap up this a.m., and I wonder if/when it will ever be filled, that would be a buying opportunity. Since I bought on 2/22/05, this has been my best performance stock. It is amazing that there have been over 56 million shares traded today, all over $8.00, with over an hour left to go until close. I agree, 2006 may be another good year for DNO. Thanks for pounding at the beginning of 05. Merry Christmas to all.
Tmcal
MCZ up on news of deal with Microsoft.
Tmcal
SVL-
Big buyer today. Over 200,000 shares with the low at $4.20