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Hank, where did you get the drilling suspension for years news?
tmcal6
MMT.v
Well, is the analyst being too conservative in order to create a buying opportunity? Time will tell and I think we will know in the next two months, well before the q4 report. I think he is too conservative, assuming MMT will be able to get the oil to market.
tmcal6
MMT.v
Earnings were not anything to write home about, but about what folks probably expected. The production was higher than Q2 but financial performance was not as strong. Maybe a cashflow timing issue. The 12.5 days of lost production due to interruption of flows of the third-party owned pipeline is interesting and a concern. Also the reference to additional downtime in October and November. Wish there was a conference call. I am wondering at what production level they might have decent earnings. Let's hope for good U6 production test information soon.
tmcal6
MMT.v
Earnings were not anything to write home about, but about what folks probably expected. The production was higher than Q2 but financial performance was not as strong. Maybe a cashflow timing issue. The 12.5 days of lost production due to interruption of flows of the third-party owned pipeline is interesting and a concern. Also the reference to additional downtime in October and November. Wish there was a conference call. I am wondering at what production level they might have decent earnings. Let's hope for good U6 production test information soon.
tmcal6
Correction: CCGY, not CCCY.
Sorry and thanks.
tmcal6
10 AMIGOS
NEP, CCME, JADA, TSTC, SIAF, YHGG, WKBT, CHGY, CCCY, LPH
TMCAL6
NEP, Aye, I emailed them. No luck as expected. Bulls, are you a premium member, or maybe it does not matter. But I sent you a PM private message a day or two ago, curious if you received it.
tmcal6
NEP -- I agree,overall the production and lower revenues were not unexpected, but they are well explained and the path forward looks bright. Wish I had scooped some up in the first five minutes after the close. I will be buying and adding to my large position when there are opportunities. I agree, double digits in 2011.
tmcal6
NEP is my second or third largest holding and I also share your concerns. I am hopeful that they picked after clsoe on Friday only to allow maximum time to prepare an informative release and to allow the weekend to digest it. I will be happy with flat total revenues and EPS based on expected lower oil production revenues and slightly higher prices and higher drilling revenues. I hope they can announce that they commenced new drilling on their existing assets and an avenue for expansion of their own resource base and production. I hope the reference to developments in the email response is related to progress in both business segments. I am crossing my fingers and expect to hold. Even with a slight decline in revenues and earnings, if the developments going forward are positive, NEP should start to be more fairly priced.
Tmcal6
Seeking Alpha article on corporate cash investment interest rates.
The author demonstrates his total lack of knowledge about corporate cash investments, especially small companies that don't have $10 to $40 billion of cash like large tech firms, AAPL, MSFT, and INTC to name a few. The three underlying objectives of corporate cash investing are SAFETY, LIQUIDITY and investment return, in that order of priority. Most cash managers went back to school on those basic principles over the past 2+ years. The first two objectives were not even mentioned by the author.
tmcal6
IAE
With this volume, probably double any previous high volume, there must be a new institutional buyer. It will probably be a slow climb up to previous highs, and it may take a year, but it should get there and further in the long run.
tmcal6
NEP
Wade, NEP has been one of my largest positions for years, and I have to admit that when trading was suspended for around 3 months, I had my doubts. They made some mistakes, and I think they have addressed all concerns. When trading resumed I increased my position and I think double digits will again be in the future. My only question mark right now is why they have not expanded their own well count and whether they will obtain drilling rights for other similar land areas. It is still undervalued at least until double digits.
tmcal6
Japan develops hybrid with no rare earths: report
7:54 pm ET 09/29/2010 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Japan's New Energy and Technology Development Organization has developed a hybrid vehicle that does not need rare-earth metals, the Nikkei reported Thursday. The new design uses magnets made from iron power "and other easily obtainable materials," rather than magnets made of rare earths neodymium and dysprosium, the report said. The new magnets are 10 to 20 times cheaper than the rare-earth version and reduces dependence on rare earth supplies from China. The news comes after a tense period for relations between China and Japan. The countries were locked in dispute over the arrest by Japanese authorities of a Chinese trawler captain. At the height of the tensions, reports emerged that China cut off rare earth supplies to Japan, although China denied making such a move.
tmcal6
Japan develops hybrid with no rare earths: report
7:54 pm ET 09/29/2010 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Japan's New Energy and Technology Development Organization has developed a hybrid vehicle that does not need rare-earth metals, the Nikkei reported Thursday. The new design uses magnets made from iron power "and other easily obtainable materials," rather than magnets made of rare earths neodymium and dysprosium, the report said. The new magnets are 10 to 20 times cheaper than the rare-earth version and reduces dependence on rare earth supplies from China. The news comes after a tense period for relations between China and Japan. The countries were locked in dispute over the arrest by Japanese authorities of a Chinese trawler captain. At the height of the tensions, reports emerged that China cut off rare earth supplies to Japan, although China denied making such a move.
tmcal6
Japan develops hybrid with no rare earths: report
7:54 pm ET 09/29/2010 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Japan's New Energy and Technology Development Organization has developed a hybrid vehicle that does not need rare-earth metals, the Nikkei reported Thursday. The new design uses magnets made from iron power "and other easily obtainable materials," rather than magnets made of rare earths neodymium and dysprosium, the report said. The new magnets are 10 to 20 times cheaper than the rare-earth version and reduces dependence on rare earth supplies from China. The news comes after a tense period for relations between China and Japan. The countries were locked in dispute over the arrest by Japanese authorities of a Chinese trawler captain. At the height of the tensions, reports emerged that China cut off rare earth supplies to Japan, although China denied making such a move.
tmcal6
NEP -- must be close to trading. Last night Schwab increased the value in my accounts to the $5.50 closing price in May from almost $0 and they have a bid and ask posted that has changed and they reflect $5.50 as the closing price as of yesterday, not in May. Could it start to trade today?
tmcal6
NEP
Looks like it was both a warrant and reserves depletion issue. Also noticed I believe that there were no new wells drilled in Q2.
tmcal6
Goldman Sachs investment management research with over $800 million of assets expressed their outlook to clients today that the market should move up from here and it is time to double down. Now with Wade's confirmation, I am going all-in. But I have been basically all-in anyway, and I don't have anything left to double down with. I hope the Wade indicator is right.
tmcal6
MILL et al.
I think MILL and IAE.L are being punished because I don't think they are land drillers. It does not matter that they are drilling in shallow waters, they are being painted by the same brush. This will only reverse and change in time, but they are eventually both going to represent great value.
tmcal6
ONG
Perhaps the Muddy Water principals can be arrested and dealt with under Chinese law the next time they visit a Chinese company to offer their services.
tmcal6
IAE.v
I asked and received a response from the company directly and suggested they need to communicate that fact to the market in some way.
tmcal6
IAE.v
I am not sure if the market response to the Sproule Reserve Report was all related to the reserve numbers or also impacted by the general energy market and selloff of BP. I don't think a 5 million barrel increase in 1P reserves is small, but probably a lot smaller than some of us expected. I believe we are invested in a production company that is conservatively managed, and that is also reflected in the Sproule report.
It is also important to note that all of the Ithaca production and exploration is in water depth under 500 ft. If located in the Gulf, they would still be drilling.
It believe we will see a rebound. GLTA
Tmcal6
IAE.v
Nice Q1 with possibly higher production in Q2 offsetting a slightly lower average oil price. The important news may be within 3 weeks with release of the Sproule report.
tmcal6
IAE.v
Expect earnings out on Tuesday with Monday being a Canadian holiday. I expect strong cashflow, but uncertain about where earnings will be since I never quite understand depletion, etc. and impacts on earnings.
tmcal6
50 Million
I don't know Len, I am going to do a lot of posting today.
tmcal6
IAE.v
Let's see, so if the IV poster is correct, there may be about 2.5 barrels of oil equivalent of recoverable proven reserves in Stella for each share of IAE.v outstanding, or put another way, one barrel of recoverable proven reserves for each dollar of IAE.v market capitalization. Well that may be optimistic, or maybe his math is still wrong, but in either circumstance, IAE.v may be WAY, WAY undervalued.
I can hardly wait for the Sproule report, even if they are a lot more conservative.
tmcal6
Fed Action? Well if it was not certain already, after today it is certain. The Open Market Committee will hold steady and not change the message. Asia will probably be down, as will Europe, but the jury is out on our markets tomorrow. I guess markets are still relying on rating agencies.
tmcal6
May 10, 1545 hours, 3:45 p.m.
tmcal6
May 10, 2010 at 1515 hours, or 3:30 pm.
tmcal6
IAE.v news:
Not for Distribution to U.S. Newswire Services or for Dissemination in the United States
Ithaca Energy Inc.
Ithaca Mandates Bank of Scotland for US$140 Million Facility
London, UK - Calgary, Canada, April 22, 2010 – Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX Venture: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) and its wholly owned subsidiary Ithaca Energy (UK) Limited (“Ithaca” or “the Company”), an independent oil & gas company with exploration, development and production assets in the UK sector of the North Sea, is pleased to announce that it has mandated Bank of Scotland Plc (“BOS”), part of Lloyds Banking Group, as Lead Arranger for the provision of a US$140 million Senior Secured Borrowing Base Facility (“the Facility”) to principally fund the development of the recently appraised Stella field and the satellite discoveries Harrier and Hurricane and/or fund future potential acquisitions of production properties in the North Sea.
A Term Sheet has been agreed between the Company and BOS. The Term Sheet is structured such that US$30 million is immediately available to the company on execution of the Facility documents. Engineering scoping work has already started on the Stella development and satellite discoveries, Harrier and Hurricane based on the outcome of the Stella appraisal well. A full development plan will be defined during 2010. The facility contemplates that a further US$110 million can be made available to Ithaca for the Greater Stella Area development based on an engineering assessment of the field(s), FDP approval and final credit approval.
Flexibility within the Facility also permits Ithaca to debt finance acquisitions of production asset(s) subject to credit approval.
Under the terms of the Mandate Letter, the parties shall negotiate and finalize the Facility documents on or before June 30, 2010. The completion of the Facility documents are subject to customary conditions including completion of due diligence. An update will be provided upon execution.
Iain McKendrick (Chief Executive Officer) commented:
“Further to our strong 2009 financial results and the very encouraging Stella appraisal well, the Company is well positioned to grow. This facility provides a major building block towards funding the capital expenditure required for the development of the Greater Stella Area but also the flexibility to finance a significant acquisition. The high level of support offered by the Bank of Scotland to Ithaca reinforces our view of the underlying strength of the Company cash flow and reserves”.
IAE.v
Thanks for that post Digitech. I hope the reserve numbers are realized in the next Stella news realease. Here we have an undervalued IAE.v based on cashflow, that may have 2P reserves increased by 33%, which represents a 25% change in "value". And there are other opportunities that will be explored over the next 12 to 18 months. I think I may even add to my huge position if we have anything more than a further 5% price decline in the next two weeks.
tmcal6
sp, I am in about the same boat as you relative to exposure to IAE.v and other resource/precious metal stocks. I also have a sizable China small cap exposure, so I probably have somewhere around only 10% of my portfolio in U.S. equities. I don't think IAE.v will buy a company, I think they will buy assets where they think they recognize hidden value for the price. I agree that most M&A deals result in the stock price of the buyer declining somewhat depending upon the purchase price, but that does not always happen when just assets are purchased. Not knowing the timing or details of any deal, I know I don't want to lighten up before the next Stella resource announcement, and that may come before any acquisition, so I am not selling any IAE.v.
tmcal6
NEP, company is no longer silent on the delay. News on AMEX notice and they give preliminary non-GAAP 4Q performance. Say they will be current and up to date with properly revised financials by June 15, (ugh), but expect to drill 60 more wells this year. All in all, pretty good PR except for the June 15 date.
tmcal6
NEP, I liked almost everything in the statement except that they will complete the revised filings and be up to date on filings no later than June 15.
One additional positive, they expect to drill 60 new wells of their own this year.
tmcal6
IAE.v, future share price? Well this was a nice move today, but it could have been better. I guess we have to wait for the rest of the story in a few weeks. If that news is good, I think we are at $3 in a month and depending on production and futher progress in all of their operations, we may hit $4 later next year. The future is bright and I don't plan on selling a share. It is hard to trade a stock that can come out with more good news month by month. IAE.v has great management and they know the price and reasonable amount of options they were granted last year will make them good money as they execute.
tmcal6
NEP
Great news on IAE.v followed by "not-so-good" news on NEP delaying their filings.
tmcal6
Cl, love it, you must be a "Seinfeld" fan. Me too. And I am a big IAE.v fan and this is great news. It now will be really interesting to see "how big" this "big" news is in a couple of weeks after they do further testing. Nice 13% pop in London in the past hour. Have a geat day.
tmcal6
IAE.v
Well it has been two weeks, so we should soon hear something on the DST results of the Stella appraisal well. Keep fingers and toes crossed.
tmcal6
IAE.V
Correct me if I am wrong, but my interpretation and interpolation says that was generally good news, and it is improving during the current quarter with oil prices over $80/b.
tmcal6
NEP - Wade, is this your proverbial sale before earnings. I hope you are wrong on this one since I am still holding a ton.
tmcal6