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R59-IPII, Hweb-SWTX
My optimism on earnings for these two wasn't entirely misplaced. I suggested a possible .07 for SWTX, and it came in at .05, which still wasn't bad. I suggested possible over .30 for IPII, and .33 is spectacular. Sometimes optimism pays, but not as often as we all would like these days. LOL
IPII
Last year earnings posted on Thursday, May 13. Will IPII announce tomorrow on Friday, May 13, or wait until next week? It should be a strong quarter in either case.
NKBS--
I read the earnings release and also listened to the call, and I still don't understand the cause(s) of the wild swings in earnings. Sold on the news at 3.05 and doubt I will be buying back until I figure it out.
Tough last 3 days. I have almost slipped back into the red for 2005 to date. Feel like a deer in the headlights.
MDF
Up .18 on 380,000 shares. Gap open. No news.
The nickel gives SWTX $.25/diluted share for the past four quarters and a trailing PE of 6.6. Maybe I should not have lightened up.
SWTX earned $.05/diluted share, splitting the difference between my optimistic projections and more conservative expectations of others. Not a bad quarter.
I sold 1/3 of my SWTX 5 digit holdings. It is a crapshoot from here, so I took some off the table.
Nice to see only a 4 cent spread between the bid at 8.40 and the ask at 8.44, and the bid/ask size at 4500/500, instead of the used to be 500/500.
OT-Bobwins
I agree with you on the price of oil. What about the $300 pair of "designer" jeans that women and men, rich and poor, seem not able to live without. I still buy my $20 jeans at Costco. Two larger problems than the price of oil are Medicare and Health Care costs and excess compensation of management in U.S. corporations. Don't get me started.
IPII-Researcher
I guess this is my day to be optimitstic. I felt IPII held back a little last quarter and their competitors in the same space did well this quarter. I believe this is also the first full quarter where they are operating from an improved facility.
Hweb-SWTX
Yes, call me an optimist. I think management has been a little conservative in their presentations in relation to results the past two quarters. A little bump in revenues and operating margins better than 30% could produce another strong quarter and 7 cents. We will know soon enough.
SWTX
Lots of members of this board moved out of SWTX last quarter, either before or just following the last quarter's earnings announcement, at much lower prices with concerns about forward guidance and earnings. The quarter was strong and there has been positive price movement for the past 2 weeks. SWTX will report on Monday, and $.07 or better is possible and could result in a move above $2.00.
IMPL/IPII
Volume and price movement was rather disappointing for the day before the move. Monday may not be any better with the symbol change back to IPII. The next good news will be earnings, that I think will come out a the week after next. IPII has an easy comparison with $.15 in Q1/04. If they can earn $.30, which would not be a huge surprise, the trailing PE on the current price would drop below 7. The comparison and low float may be attractive to the low-float momos.
IPII/IMPL/IPII
What the heck, great news and I think we can expect the company to follow it up with gangbuster numbers for the 1st Q in the next 2 weeks. YeeHAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In reference to DFC, it will be posting a profitable quarter on May 3 of approx. $.10 for the first quarter, compared to a loss of $.35 in Q1/04. The profit will be based upon portfolio accounting instead of gain on sale accounting, and all comparables going forward should be favorable in a similar manner. DFC switched to portfolio accounting just over a year ago and has paid the price. That is about to change, and the company may also increase its dividend by 50% to 100% from $.05/quarter to a dime/quarter.
ASPN
News will add $.09 as a one-time gain to earnings next quarter. Unfortunately, that won't be reported for over 3 months.
Bobwins, I agree, the volume of posts has to have a direct correlation with market performance and opportunities, and they seem more limited for most of us. I actually turned slightly positive for the year yesterday, and slid back into the red today with the backsliding of MDF and some oil stocks. Then again, I look at some of the indices, particularly the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, and don't feel as bad.
IMPL
30 days since reverse split will be tomorrow. News on NasSC listing could be any day. Follow-on news of strong 1Q earnings should be out by mid May.
IBM
I know it is not a microcap by a long shot, but it just came out with earnings of about $.84 compared to expected $.90. Trading had been halted earlier in the day because of forthcoming news, but earnings were not expected before Monday. Probably down after hours and will be a bad start for Friday.
Top 10 Topic: In the board header the Top 20 mostly widely held stocks as tabulated by SKILLZ are now posted. I must have been reading this board too much or for too long. I currently own 8 of the top 10 and 13 of the top 20, and the other 7 I have owned and sold or traded. I imagine there are a few other board members in the same boat.
On the subject of the top 5 that I would like to buy, I presume that the question assumes I had more money and I was not fully invested.
Top Market Value % of Portfolio Holdings:
DFC
EGY
MDF
PKZ
ASPN
CHAR
DNO
IMPL
PDGE
ZONS
PYTM
New senior debt holders could have paid anywhere from 40 to 60 cents on the dollar. Whatever it was, they don't plan to lose their investment and they expect a nice return. One way or another, they will own the company. It is just a question as to whether or not PYMT is worth current price or much less.
IMPL. We should hear on listing in 3 to 4 weeks. Q1 earnings should be out by mid-May, a couple of weeks after we move to NasSC. Q1 earnings will have an easy quarterly comparison. Q2 will start to show impacts of efficiencies from new expanded facility. Now if the market maker could just get used to the post reverse split pricing and bring the bid/ask spread in to at least a dime or less. I think we will see double digits real soon.
Bobwins
Just curious. Did you finally get out of MBAH, and are you still in ATVE? Our good old MDF Yahoo board is getting a little crazy. It is not helping the stock price any, but I think it is getting oversold. The last 4 weeks have moved me into a slight negative for the year and it doesn't feel good. I don't know if I have diversified too much or it is just the market, but I agree with Wade that this year is getting tough.
Good luck with the Huskies this weekend.
AHOM
After a slow start is beginning to move.
Len, somehow I knew you would give us those statistics. Frankly, they are not surprising. Based upon 109 views/post, I would guess there are approximately 200 frequent/consistent readers of the board.
Keep up the good work, but don't drive yourself crazy. LOL
We should be due for some news from IPII.ob. Earnings and/or news on listing should be near.
SWTX--holding up well despite sales by a number of posters on this board of 20% to 80% of their positions, including 20% of my own holdings.
TVIN--still moving up nicely again today. Must be the forecast of 25-35% revenue increase, expanded product line and expectations for new orders.
TGA--may continue minor sell off through earnings and beyond
MDF--bought back trading shares today. Expect decent earnings and HMO news over next two months.
R59: SWTX
Listened to CC and agree with your points. I thought Wade's assessment sounded like he had sold after the discussion of the SWTX presentation at the Needham conference last month. The $.10 earnings fully diluted was I believe at least one or two cents better than most everyone's expectations after the $.07 last quarter, and perhaps three or four cents better than expectations after the Needham presentation discussion. I am glad I held on to my shares and will buy more in the a.m. because I expect a run to the $2 to $2.50 area in the next week. I can easily see $.25-$.30 in 2005 which could bring the price to over $3.00 by the end of the year. Good luck.
Yes, I saw the last trade quote for the pink sheet stock at 6.40. I am just curious whether you can really buy it there at that price and for over a 1,000 shares. Schwab suggested an interesting website to me that others may want to look at. It is europeaninvestor.com. You don't have to register, you can specify the language and currency you want prices for certain european stocks. Probably best way to check your current holding(s).
RRainman and PMACA. I purchased 5,000 of DNO or DTNOF today through Schwab Global trading desk. Yes they have one. It was not cheap. Schwab takes a commission and the local broker takes like 1.5%, but due to lack of trading on the pink sheets for DTNOF, they thought it would be better. pmaca, you bought on pinks I believe yesterday. Do you mind telling me your price and size of any other markup. Looks like I bought at $6.33 with a $250 commission to Schwab. Not cheap, but I liked the company and I figure I will make the cost back with the weakening dollar, especially if I hold a year or two. I would not be surprised if other "discount" brokers don't have a global trading desk like Schwab, for those who may be interested in this or other stocks.
Regarding DFC, forgot to add that the closing price today was $9.63, the market cap is $163 million, the Miller family runs and owns approx. 46% of the company and the float is relatively small. Average daily volume is less than 50,000, and position can be difficult to accumulate. It will not be under $10 for long, and after earnings, it may never be again.
Delta Financial Corporation (DFC) is in the same market as TMFZ.ob, sup-prime mortgages, however it is 3.5 times the size and three years ahead of TMFZ in their business plan. DFC has not had a profit yet this year (actually lost about $.50/share in the first 9 months) because it changed from gain-on sale accounting to portfolio accounting. Under gain on sale, they would probably be reporting earnings of approx. $.50 per share for the 4th quarter, but under portfolio accounting they are expected to break even or have a penny profit. Earnings going forward will likely increase approx. $.10 per quarter which will present great comparisons quarter by quarter going forward. The company will probably announce their next securitization in the next 6 weeks which could be anywhere from $750 to $800 million. I own a relatively large position matching my positions in TGA and MDF.
Mad Catz Interactive (MCZ) has had a history of mistakes and management issues that have delayed profitability of this company for years. Broke even in first 6 months and will report earnings on Tuesday based upon announcement of revenues last quarter in excess of $50 million, or 20% higher than same quarter last year. Expected to earn .05. Closing price of $1.11 and market cap of $59.3 million. If it comes through it should have a nice pop, but it may not be sustained.
TGA News. Looks Good for An14, Canadian production and exit rate of approx. 5300 boepd for 2004. Should be a good TGA day tomorrow.
SWME.ob was mentioned once on the original Value Microcaps Board and it was suggested that it did not fit the profile. This is definitely a story stock that may have real potential and life. Look into it, OB24 pain ointment that is going through a double blind study. Will probably announce major U.S. distribution program in near future.