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IEHC
Reports quarterly gain of $.10 FD verses loss ($.02) FD in 2004. Should move up further with these earnings.
Tmcal6
RR
VPHM - And the $.11 was after a one-time charge of approx. $7MM. If we are lucky, there may be a short buying opportunity this morning. CC should be interesting.
Tmcal6
SSK--
Thanks, I looked there this a.m., and somehow missed it. I need to wake up.
Mike97707--
Well, we both have high sheep scores and so far the sheep are hanging in there. Just curious. We have 3 stocks in common for the Pick 6. I have positions in your other 3 stocks. Do you have, or have you had positions in my other 3, CHAR, IPII, and PKZ?
TMCAL6
SSK--
My thanks also, although the day by day ranking was a little amazing. I'm sure it is a straight forward product of your worksheet, but I could not produce that type of info. Of course, I am an "older" techie.
Just curious. I tried to post a "dumb" message late last night, I believe it was on this board, and either did not hit "submit post" or one of the board moderators erased it. Or was I dreaming that I posted a message last night?
TMCAL6
SKILZ
The pressure is too great. It is time to sale. I am going all cash. The gig is up. The end is near. Now what do I do? I wish this game was over. I think I will stop monitoring this board. I'm going to bed. Have a good weekend.
TMCAL6
Hweb - WPCS
Don't know if you followed through with your short idea or not, but since I short a stock about once every 3 years, I didn't. You win some and you lose some. I had just established an average size position, so I feel like the goat, but I am not throwing in the towel. I think they had problems and they can be corrected. I like the sector and think they can turn it around. Disappointed, you bet, I will probably drop 5+ figures on Monday on just this dumb move, but I am seriously considering averaging down. It is too late to sell, and I just have a feeling this may be an opportunity. Obviously I have no facts other than sector and backlog to rely on and it could be dead money, but I like the 2 year chart going forward.
WPCS
Disappointing earnings for the 4th Q just out. Maintained guidance for FY06. Down 60 cents in aftermarket.
Especially when they add up the gains on the 7 stocks and divide it by 6. LOL
TAM
You are correct. I will be happy to be in the Top 10. Who knows what will happen over the next 5 months. Maybe we should suggest to SKILZ new monthly and quarterly contests and really keep him busy, as if he needs that. Thanks for your work SKILZ.
TMCAL6
TheAliceMay:
Congratulations again. After today, I knew it would be close, and it may be even closer by Friday. I was hoping for a little more help in the aftermarket, so I could make an argument, but I know that doesn't count anyway. LOL. Good luck.
TMCAL6
Swanlinbar,
My post #628 failed to mention you. Congratulations. I guess I was thinking that SYNX was held by only one VMCer, and there are two with the pick. Since ThaAliceMay was 2nd last Friday, I am sure he is now first, and you are probably 2nd. I hope you are taking some profits. Good luck.
TMCAL6
One of the Sheep
Mercy, Mercy, Oh the Pain.
Congrats, TheAliceMay, I surrender. Len's point is well taken. Too bad this isn't like NASCAR, where you get lap points, or lap money, or something. LOL
DFC
Delta Financial will post earnings tomorrow morning and it should swing from about a 19 cent loss to a 19 cent gain. If you don't believe the mortgage market will disappear, DFC will have good quarterly comparisons for the next few years. Company may increase its dividend/quarter by 50-100% from the current $.05. Company is about 2 years ahead of TMFZ and has been held up for the past 18 months by switching to portfolio accounting. Don't expect a big move, but should gain 25% over the next 3 months.
MSGI
You are right, XWG is a great stock and one of the best performers over the last 2 days, and 6 months out to 2 years. The last few days I wish I owned it again. I probably owned small positions 3 times in the past 6 months. After last week, the important question is would you buy XWG or VPHM today if you did not own either, neither or both? I suspect both.
Rawnoc-
If it is not ewe or you, it will be someone sooner and later. I continue to be surprised. Now if energy stocks can just hold in there until cold weather starts again.
I am surprised based on action the last week that no one picked CPTCQ.
Len, great analysis.
You simplified a complex analysis. I like to think I understand it, but I'm sure I miss some of the fine points. Statistical analysis is interesting and useful to illustrate important issues, which was the purpose of your analysis. I believe you admitted or recognized up front some limitations of the analysis, which are the inability to take into consideration the roughly 9,800 stocks that were not in the 194 picks, and the true effects of individual due diligence.
You were willing to bet that at least one of the 194 stocks will increase 500-600% and ultimately determine the winner. I agree there is a good chance of that. Any one of us would love to have just one of those stocks in our "pick 6" or in our actual porfolios for that matter. Question is, what is the probability that among the 194 stocks, there is not one that increases by more than 200%? Furthermore, what is the probability that someone has the highest % gainer at the end of 6 months, and still loses due to underperformance of the other 5 picks? I think there is a significant probability.
If you look at the old and new VMC index lists maintained by SSKILZ, in the old list there were only two stocks with gains that materially exceeded, 100%, FORD at 366% and CYDS at 1,158%. I think most of us chose our "pick 6" from stocks that we own, which are stocks that we have done DD and in many cases have been discussed on the VM board. We probably ignored some stocks we hold for Safety/Slow Growth/Dividend reasons and focused on 6-month price appreciation.
I hold all six of my picks. Combined they represent 40.6% of my portfolio, and they are #2, #3, #4, #5, #7 and #11 as ranked percentage weightings. I would bet that is not unusual, because most of us put our money where our mind and mouths lead us.
As a sheep, I certainly don't expect to win this contest. It would be nice, but I agree with you, not likely. I do however want to finish in the top 25%, and do that consistently in future editions of this experiment. If that happens, I am comfortable my portfolio will be doing OK.
Thanks for all your work Sheriff Len.
Koz, in addition to your pokes at sheriff Len, it seems that you have a lot of posts primarily on small Can O&Gs and some other bulletin board and pink sheet stocks, that generally seem to be doing very well. Is that the focus of your investing and is that why you did not enter the Pick Six game/board?
Yield
Well you did make it into top 5. I don't know the "truth" about the PRs, but VSR did get mentioned in "Stocks in the news" on Nightly Business Report. I think I would take some profits in a real portfolio. Good luck.
Yield
If the last two days, particularly today with VSR, did not move you to the top, or at least the top 5, I will be surprised. Good move on buying back big time before open and probably thereafter.
SSKILZ, I just got back from two family reunions, one in Nebraska and one in Colorado, and finally found time to catch up on the VM board and check the posts on this board since 6/30. Needless to say, I was shocked to see my name leading midweek, or should I say Day 3. And here I am, a simple Sheep at that. This board is a lot of fun, and your work is appreciated.
PS: Worthy, I pulled a muscle under my ribcage golfing 3 days straight the week before last, and it still hurts to laugh, etc. It was getting better until I read your dislexia post. LOL
good luck to all
Question? This may have been addressed already and I missed it. What happens if one of your picks is bought or merges? Do you have to continue to ride the new stock, or can you substitute?
Thanks LB, it is probably another site that could be posted to the intro/header of this board. I had it bookmarked on my computer at the office, but not at home.
Does anyone have the ihub site name for the 6 pick lotto board. Thanks in advance.
I think I will overweight these picks with energy stocks which should still be doing well by 12/31 in the middle of winter. My portfolio has about a 33% weighting in energy. So here are my six, with a 67% energy weighting:
ASPN, CHAR, IPII, PKZ, EGY and VPHM.
DNO - Patentlaw
I don't post often, but I joined in on DNO about 3 months ago. Bought through international desk at Schwab directly from the OSLO exchange at the ASK, but paid a $250 commission. Could have guessed at a buy price for the pink sheet counterpart, but chose to buy 5,000 shares directly at about 6.20. More than a double from here and plan on a long term hold.
GFCI - Niles
Man, what a news release. Sounds like the good ol' boys really get along now. GFCI could be pushed to a buck again by all the good things going on just in Libya. I will have to see if I have any spare change to throw in this direction. I am sure it will stick. LOL
IPII Q2 earnings:
I agree with the following which is copied from IPII post #604 from Southacresdave on Raging Bull:
2nd Q earnings estimate....I'd figured last quarter 16M & 29 cents (that was my private estimate--no official post anywhere). This actually was low vs real #'s of 16.6M & 33 cents. This quarter I'm thinking they have a good shot at $20M in revenue. Last year they did 25% better revenue in the 2nd quarter vs 1rst (that puts us at 20.5M vs 16.6M for actual 1rst Q). The increase in building permits is supporting this. Add in the continual repair of hurricane damage, the increased capacity for manufacturing & most of all, a new sales center. All together, I think $20M is very doable. I put gross profits at 32% (vs 32% last 2nd Q & 31.5% for 1rst Q). If they sell more of their own manufactured product, margins should improve or stay the same. That gives us gross income of $6,400,000. Operating expenses of $3.9M (versus $3.8M 1rst Q & 3.9M last 4th Q---the two highest they've have). Minus off $100K for interest (after interest expenses are counterbalanced with misc. income). That gives $2.4M before taxes. Figure fully taxed (x .60) = $1.44 M net. Divided by 2.50M shares = 58 cents/share. So those are my numbers. $20M Revenue $ 58cents/share. (If they came in below this I'd be disappointed because I think $21M in revenue is actually a more accurate #, but I'm conservative.) After that, I'd actually put 3rd quarter numbers (if no hurricane slows sales down) at slightly higher due to the sales center being more established. Even if a hurricane hits, it'll only add to sales further down the line.
IPII
I don't think IPII is a story stock like BOOM, and it does not involve "technology", but it is a strong earnings low float story that may earn $2.00 in 2005 and could possibly get pushed to $30 in 3-6 months if it does earn $.60 in Q2.
IPII
Agree PatentLaw, some on this board thought my estimate of over $.30 for last quarter was too high and we got $.33. I think +$.60 is definitely doable, unfortuneately we won't hear the news for another 2+ months.
IPII
Going crazy again, +$2.00 so far.
SKILZ
I would vote for a quarterly update also, at a minimum, and only top 5 positions of each disclosee as a % of total portfolio asset value, excluding cash and GOOG. LOL
RR
What is your view on DNO and PAR going forward from here?. Fairly priced now or undervalued still?
RR
PAR - Looks like private placement was only about a 4% discount to yesterdays's close. Not bad. Did you get any?
DNO - Big chunk of debt. Surprised at the size. Were you, and how do you feel about it compared to issuing equity with more dilution?
RR
DNO and PAR
Where are you today with the DNO and PAR updates? Par was up 0.4% and DNO was up 4.3%. I need to thank you because I have been in DNO and almost have a double. I was considering PAR for some time and wish I had joined the PAR "party" early yesterday. Good luck, you must be back watching the French Open.
ABRX
I don't think anyone, no matter how much research is accomplished, can predict the bottom or the outcome for ABRX. You will probably see a Chapter 11 filing within 2 weeks.
MSGI TMFZ originates and buys loans, then packages and resales them, but uses gain on sale accounting.
OT-Rawnoc
Your posts were not private, they were public, and at least I have the coutesy to indicate "OT". I didn't intend to stike a sensitive cord, as I am sure Len did not also, but apparently we did. This is my last post on this OT topic. Good luck with ABRX.
OT
Rawnoc, give it a rest. We all have stocks that have done better than ABRX, and obviously many others that have done worse. Congratulations.
All the indices were up strong, including the Russell 2000 at +1.66%, and I was down a good 2% mostly on IPII, and some of the common O&G holdings on this board. I have slipped into the red for the 3rd time this year. With the dollar getting stronger and the yield curve flat, this market is getting more complicated every day.