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I got 30k @ 0.0532
I think you are spot on here...I would expect to see a 5% ownership filing and expect it to be Pinnacle.
This beats BK hands down as that is where we were priced a few days ago. I think this is win/win for everyone and now that the CD holders are setup to make nice gains we should see the SP goes significantly higher
None of the MMs that have been pressuring the SP are in play (COHI, ARCA, NITE)...could have a nice close if they remain on the sidelines
lol.... 1m was fake
At these price levels even if we get capped out with 300m shares it is still criminally under-valued. You are only talking about EV difference of $12m. Whats the difference of an EV of $55m or $67m when it should be a minimum of $150m.
Once the debt holders are lined up to make a killing (which is soon) this will rocket
yep...that is what most don't realize. ARCA is just the routing ECN and I noticed we were fighting NITE all afternoon in the 8s and he was getting his arse kicked. We push 10 and ARCA pops up and NITE goes away.
We need to stop freaking out eveytime we seee ARCA on the ask
Was not dilution everyone ran away and bid whacked once ARCA popped up on the ask. Nobody even bought into ARCA...this was just a short routing thru ARCA
I think the ARCA popping up had to do with NITE taking a beating...they probably re-routed thru ARCA since we always assume ARCA = dilution and NITE disappeared shortly after they showed up
ARCA doesn't even have to do anything but flash sell orders and retail runs. This doesn't mean dilution it could be any shorts routing through ARCA.
NITE needed to route a few thru ARCA to scare retail and stop the bleeding.
no worries uptrend to continue shortly
ARCA scare tactic...lol
NITE is gone now...sitting at .105
NITE took a beating in the 8s
NITE just backed off...he has been a thorn in our side this whole afternoon
the shorts are bashing Mgmt for the $40m in debt...In actuality Mgmt should be praised for orchestrating much of the purchase prices in actually stock and not debt. At the time of purchasing all the private companies they paid around $250m...now we are given the chance to own a piece of the combined company with an EV of $54m and projected 2015 revenue of $200m.
They should put a bow on these prices as they are pure gifts!
You keep mentioning debt of $40m. Everyone needs to focus on Enterprise Value of only $54m ($14m equity market cap + 40m debt).
This is a gift...EV of $54m on a company projecting $200m in 2015 revenue and has the ability to go cash flow positive at anytime by scaling down advertising.
No wonder why I keep loading up down here!!!
Looks at Friday's daily chart...wouldn't shock me if we see similar today with a strong reversal shortly. All those shares were absorbed quite nicely
imo it was those with the short agenda routing through ARCA to give the appearance of dilution since the market is under the assumption that ARCA always = dilution which is not the case
agreed...this is just the beginning of the good restructuring news. What do people expect them to find the funds under the coach cushions. We probably get a better one soon and this was probably a quick stop-gap and the terms aren't terrible at that
ARCA is not a MM just a routing ECN. Heck anyone with a short agenda can route through ARCA to give the appearance that it is conversion related since we all talk about ARCA = dilution
It just gave the MMs an opportunity to scare the retail players. 8k is non event to slight positive IMO
lol...are you going to be saying don't chase it when it hits .15+ today?
that share count is huge news which means the either the 4% holders ran out of ammo on Friday with the ARCA selling and this mornings selling was prolly MMs trying hard for another push down which means huge squeeze is possible
At a minimum you need a core position in your portfolio at all times. You do not know when the PR addressing the Notes due will come but it should come soon. Worst case/End of world scenario is still a 2-3x bagger from these prices with the potential for 5x-10x
IMO a buyout would happen early Jan and only if they couldn't address the Jan/Feb notes. They would probably rather sell out then give up a huge equity stake on the dirt cheap and a sell-out would be more profitable for everyone.
If they meet the Jan/Feb notes they will probably go at it alone unless Big T makes a huge offer which is always possible
I was just trying to show how we should be priced at a minimum of .20/share until they address the Jan/Feb Notes and that was a worst case scenario.
I agree $200m next year w/o the current debt on the books and the SP should be $2+
I can just imagine the short exposure on some of the MMs since the last two days was not dilution. They must be scrambling now!
This stock has a good chance to Bankrupt any shady MM that is sitting with huge short exposure. They realize this and will be trying their hardest to closeout ASAP.
Company will be addressing how they intend to payoff the Jan/Feb notes soon and this should explode immediately after
with 80m in revenue and if they are cash flow positive this should have at a minimum Enterprise Value of $150m.
Even if they max out the OS to 300m shares to pay off the 20m of Jan/Feb notes this would leave shareholder equity at $120m (150-30 remaining debt).
$120m/300m shares = .40/share. This is a huge opportunity even assuming max dilution to pay off the Jan/Feb notes
I highly doubt the recent increase in OS were the Jan/Feb note holders selling if they converted. They would have incentive to covert but not dump at these fire sale prices. They realize the true EV has a stock price of .50-$1.00 so they would never sale down here.
I am sticking to my theory that the 4% holders are the same holders of the Jan/Feb and we are seeing them convert and dump to cause a SP crash and hope the company can't raise funds and default on the Jan/Feb notes. This way they can negotiate a huge new equity stake from those notes. They probably are in collusion with some of the shady MMs abusing their naked Short Sale exemption to flood the market phantom shares.
Either way this is almost risk free down here as worst case scenario we should still be priced at .20 and I think the company will do what they can to stick it to the note holders even if they sell out for $80m
Almost risk free down here.
Rather than give up control to the note holders Mgmnt can have a fire sale to Big T for 1x revenue or $80m and still return $30m to the equity holders or .20/share. This is also the most conservative as a minimum would be 2-3x revenue.
this is an opportunity of a lifetime
actually it may be four days and not three to report. Either way if the OS has increased by the 30mm or so being posted they should file an 8k
We should get an 8k soon.
If the posts of increases in OS are true, whether it is from company issuing new shares or the CD holders converting these are reportable events and an 8k needs to be issued within three days
Thanks...I am new to this and it got my interest and subsequent analysis on the drop to .05 range. After some DD this could be a rare opportunity to bank some nice games if Mgmt gets through the Jan/Feb notes. That live to fight another day quote is spot on and makes me believe Mgmt will get through this as we will see $1+ in early 2015.
This isn't your typical OTC play and Mgmt knows the deal and I could care less if we are at .10 or .14 now as that is not the end goal here. Payoff those Jan/Feb notes and the SP soars. Non Dilutive we see $1+...Dilutive depending on the severity I think we see around .50
Mgmt was a tad aggressive with their acquisitions and the ST notes that paid for them but they planned to payoff the ST CDs with the $5 offering. Once that fell through the ST Holders were chomping at the bit to get the company to default...and all the games began and they were relentless.
They ST CD holders knew with the stock still in the dollars the company could issue new shares to pay them back and they needed to try and block this. That is when you started seeing the short attacks and dilution from the 4% Notes. They needed to get this stock down and fast to prevent Mgmt from raising the funds. They hope that the stock trading in this range that can force default and get a huge piece of new equity.
Mgmt can not default on these Jan/Feb notes as they need to remain in control. These ST CD holders are vultures and only want to line their pockets as much as possible. Mgmnt has options to pay them off and IMO are working out the best deal possible in the most non dilutive way.
The ST CD holders are greedy b-tards and know how much EV this company has. They would like nothing more than to take as much control and convert those notes to new equity. This can only open if the company defaults and this tug of war between mgmt and them is the whole reason we are seeing these prices and volume.
If mgmt secures financing (non dilutive is better but dilutive works just so they keep control) the SP is off to the races. I am placing my bets the mgmt accomplishes this as they are seasoned and have huge financing networks.
It isn't the company diluting...it is probably the 4% holders trying to crush the stock and stop any financing options for the company to meet the Jan/Feb notes.
If it is the company diluting that isn't a bad thing either as they need to prevent the Jan Notes from defaulting no matter the cost.
too much equity in the company and the ST CD holders know this. I am banking on mgmnt team able to get a bridge loan to take back control. Risk/Reward here is huge on the upside.
Best Case - BL and we go to $1+
Worst case scenario we get huge dilution (I don't see them going for BK) and that is priced in at these levels.
they know what is going on and they own a significant part of the OS. These are the ST CD holders trying to prevent capital raising and hoping to put the Jan/Feb notes in default. Company knows this and once addressed we go parabolic
If the company announces the Jan or Feb Notes are paid or will be paid via refinancing this will open between .50 - 1.00 (resistance will not even come into play). This is a huge opportunity if management lays out an immaterial dilutive roadmap.