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POWER HOUR BULL RUN on the way
Q2 REV PICKS
Markp - $7.9 mil
DoubleOrNothing985 - $8.3 mil
jj88882222 - $8.8 mil
BuddyInfo - $9.2 mil
WeTheMarket - $9.5 mil
2bogie - $9.8 mil
SWMFHD - $10 mil
AlexBridges - $10.1 mil
TheHunter2013 - $10.2 mil
RV-8 Pilot - $10.6 mil
SoprisInvestments - $11 mil
RezzyHooch (CHAMP) - $11.4 mil
arapahoe3 - $11.41 mil
Adagium - $11.7 mil
TurlteKing - $11.8 mil
Pennyback Ride - $11,858,456.99
Sprech - $12.1 mil
ikeyson - $12,184,365.72
Value Fry - $12.185 mil
Raznic - $12.35 mil
pogyman - $12.5 mil
Spitzz - $12.8 mil
Chernobyl-X - $13.2 mil
Derekp - $13.5 mil
JoseSD - $13.7 mil
GOODINVESTBELGIUM - $13.71 mil
Stockwolf - $14.0 mil
SURF - $14.2 mil
WaxOn/WaxOff - $14.4 mil
Nome - $14.41 mil
Sypher90 - $14.75
bleepblopbloop - $15.1 mil
Mantis - $15.2 mil
Youngwolf94 - $16.9 mil
Mike6565 - $17.1 mil
eazolan - $24 mil
Coin8300 (Dr. Evil) - $1 bil
Note: If you make a pick that someone else made, I will add .01 mil to it
See you at $5
VSLR -10.21%. SCTY -4.64%. Greece, Puerto Rico, what's your point?
JN said in CC acquisition search going "very well" with a giddy tone. Unless he's a total scum liar, which idk I guess anythings possible, then my guess is we have multiple candidates. We just did an acquisition in March. I'm thinking one or two more this year, then two to three next year. Minimum 3 $10-30 mil companies by EOY 2016.
Solar3D to use Nasdaq Fund Raise for Acquisitions
“Virtually all of the funds that we got in the offering are going to be used for additional acquisitions,” Nelson said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/solar3d-to-use-nasdaq-fund-raise-for-more-acquisitions-ceo-says
$11 million cash. We haven't used a dime of that yet.
Just sayin
That's a solid analysis. I'm not totally convinced market has priced in meeting guidance $40-45M though because Q1 was only $5.7M. If Q2 is over $10M then I think we could say market is pricing in guidance. Maybe not though, jmho.
I was thinking originally $10-15 EOY since market has been giving us about 2x guidance and with organic growth of Sunworks and MD next year plus a few more acquisitions I think guidance will be around $100 mil, and if market continues to give us 2x guidance market cap then it would be $200 mil market cap, or $12-15 share.
Not sure about that anymore though. $8 seems more realistic till profits are proven.
Yeah I'd say with a float as small as ours you're right that the insider selling does have a effect. Not a huge effect at only 6.7% of volume, but enough to stop a run. I think this was on the way down anyway but not this far down.
Reasons why SLTD will be profitable 2015:
- Gross margins have been improving every quarter due to greater efficiency and higher volume purchasing discounts.
Gross Margins
2014
Q1-26%
Q2-27%
Q3-27%
Q4-30%
2015
Q1-34%
Gross margins should continue to rise as Solar3D expands via organic growth and acquisitions by getting even bigger bulk purchase discounts on panels and other supplies.
- Interest expense (which is from the pnotes we used to buy Sunworks) on the decline. Lowest interest expense to date last quarter at $460k. This has been one of our big expenses affecting net income.
Here's the financials to verify: http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=SLTD®ion=USA&culture=en_US
- Interest expense will continue to decline as expensive Sunworks pnotes are fully paid off within the next year.
- MD Energy pnote terms are much more favorable as will be all future acquisitions since pps is reasonable now. With Sunworks pps was very low at the time of acquisition so the notes were expensive, thus interest expense will be lower in the future.
- The derivative liability is 100% gone as of March 31, 2015. That was the reason for our big non-cash losses Q3 and Q4 2014.
- Main reason for net loss last quarter was the $1M+ one time fees for uplisting and public offering.
- Newest acquisition MD Energy made $800k net income on $7M revenue 2014. 4-5 more profitable acquisitions like this by EOY 2016, except these will be $10-30M companies with larger net incomes.
Can someone find me the MD 2014 financials? I think they were imbedded in an 8-k or something. I'm having trouble finding it for some reason. Thanks peeps
Solarcity CEO sold 30% of his entire holdings just last year, 900k shares for about $50 mil. It's compensation, deal with it.
Haha, right on brother! See you at $7 in a few months
Interesting, thanks Bucky
The insider selling June 5-10 represented about 80,000 shares, or 6.7% of the total volume of shares traded during that time frame (about 1.2M).
I doubt they really had that big an effect at only 6.7%, but this was heading back down to $4 either way since no news and Q2 is 2 months away. The insider trading may have sped it up a few days, but it was happening regardless.
Just like it will bounce again to high 4's soon and then sink again to low 4's one or two more times before the real "news" hits, that being a blowout Q2.
Then we start oscillating between $6-8 till acquisition or Q3.
All IMO.
Will bounce between 4-5 till monster Q2 (August). The impatient and weak handed can leave till then.
My Carl Indicator says TO DA MOOOOOOOOOON
Great thoughts man, agreed.
No prob, sorry the clowns over at ST got me amped up
Price would be exactly where it is now, oscillating between 3.9-4.8. This trading range has been well established since April and the insider trades happened just last week while we were already on the way back down to the lower end of the range. The insider selling is virtually meaningless to pps. The market has chosen to trade in this range, and it will continue to till blowout Q2.
Again the insider trades just occurred, but look at how the trading range has already been well established for months. The insider trading didn't cause all that resistance in high 4's where it came back down 3 times. That's the market. Q2 will change the market's valuation IMO.
Same reason Solarcity CEO dumped 700k shares last year and bought zero for a solid $48 million pay day. Same reason Vivint Vice President just dumped 55k shares the other week.
Why? Compensation bro.
That's how it's done these days, get used to it. So long as guidance is met, I could give a flying F what they do with their shares.
HAHA no way man, I am permanent beast mode
It would be around 40 cents (split-adjusted), where it was late 2013 with no acquisitions because the owners of SUNworks would never have agreed to sell their company without the stock compensation.
No, SLTD traded between $1.50-$2.00 ($.058-$.077 presplit) during June of last year, not $4. And one year ago today, June 12 2014, it closed at $1.664 (everything is split adjusted now).
We closed at 4.02 yesterday, so we are up 242% from this day last year.
Mark this, we will be up at least 200% this day next year.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
Lyndon Rive, CEO of Solarcity, dumped 700k shares ($48M worth) of SCTY last year. He didn't buy a single share. Does that mean Solarcity is a scam? Does he not believe in the company? Or is it just one way he is compensated?
Folks, SLTD is up 240% from one year ago today. It'll be up another 240% this time next year. Stocks don't rise every day the whole year. They oscillate in a trading range for a while, then the growth becomes a reality and they explode, then oscillate for a while again, then explode. Solarcity has been oscillating in a well defined trading range for 9 months!!!
Q2 will be our next explosion, IMO to $6-8 range till acquisition, Q3, or announcement of a giant 10MW+ project, which is coming.
Right now the market is valuing us at about 2x guidance, which for 2015 is 40-45M. With the MOST conservative assumptions of only one more acquisition of a $10 mil company this year and ONLY 50% organic growth in 2016 of all three subsidiaries (Sunworks, MD, third acquisition) then our 2016 guidance should be at minimum $75 mil. Market cap should be at least $150 mil then at 2x market cap, so we have a SUPER CONSERVATIVE MINIMUM share price target of $8.00 this time next year, a 100% return.
If we assume 75-100% organic growth of all three subsidiaries 2016 then the 2016 guidance will be $88-100 mil, thus market cap should be $176-200 mil, equating to a $10-12 price per share this time next year.
These are reasonable numbers, and plus they assume ZERO acquisitions all of 2016 which is absurd.
Good move holding through Q2, will be huge IMO.
Yeah, I hear ya. But the uplisting also came with an unexpected SPO which was necessary to even qualify for the NASDAQ. But it created 6 million new shares outstanding (3 million stock, 3 million warrants), 40% dilution in a day. None of us anticipated that, but if we were smart enough we could have. All those 3 million shares flooding the market in the SPO tanked the price, coupled with heavy shorting from folks like Morgan Stanley, as was found out by Nome.
In regards to Q1, I did call $8.5 mil which would have been record high game changer and of course it was only $6M.
But again here all of us overlooked something that we could have figured out by doing a little more DD, which is that "Historically for SUNworks, the first quarter is always the slowest in terms of revenue recognition."
http://www.solar3d.com/view_news.php?Id=80
That is very significant. If I had seen that before Q1 ER I would have not been expecting a game changing first quarter.
Look at last year, Sunworks had $1 mil revenue Q1, and that was with two whole months of owning them. As we know, Q2 was just huge with $7.5 mil, the highest revenue quarter to date. It's clear now that the reason Q1 2014 sucked and Q2 was so big was because of the fact that Q1 is the slowest in terms of revenue recognition, so a good chunk of revenue that might have been recognized Q1 is recognized Q2. Same applies this year, meaning Q2 should be huge.
In that PR I linked above about Q1 last year, it also states they had $8M backlog coming out of Q1. $7.5 mil was recognized as revenue Q2, so most of the backlog converted to revenue.
Now this year we have $15 mil backlog coming out of Q1, and JN confirmed on the CC most of that $15 mil would be recognized Q2.
So all the evidence points to a huge Q2. We'll see.
IMO Q2 will be the game changer we've been waiting for, and will drive pps to $6-8 range, till acquisition and hopefully a blowout Q3.
Now there is no excuse for Q2. It's put up or shut up. If Q2 is disappointing, there is absolutely no excuse now. I am betting it will be huge.
Great thoughts Imp, agreed. I am so amped for Q2. We know Q2 is huge for Sunworks too because historically Q1 is slowest in terms of revenue recognition, which by nature makes Q2 the biggest quarter every year.
Excellent analysis, thanks Carl. Plus a lot of the expenses last Q were one time expenses relating to uplisting costs, so that's gone too, further increasing odds of profitability Q2.
I'm with you there, Q2 needs to be over $10 mil, or real Fin close to it with profits or SMALL loss.
All the evidence points to a $12 mil Q2 like JN confirming in CC most of the $15 mil backlog will be recognized Q2, and the fact that he has mentioned SUNworks Q1 is historically slow to recognize revenue, which is why Q2 gets a boost like last year when Q1 was only $1 mil even with 2 months of owning SUNworks, and then Q2 was huge at $7.5 mil. We only had one quarter of MD Q1, now we get all 3.
Hard to call this a downtrend when it's just bouncing up and down between 3.8-4.8 past few months. If anything now is the time to buy short term because the pattern says it will continue to bounce up to 4.80 then back down to 3.90 till Q2.
Same thing with SCTY past 9 months:
Both will probably be more than double this time next year. SLTD will be triple. The patient will win. For now they're just bouncing in a well defined range, no true up or downtrends IMO.
Great points Mooon, PMrz, AB, etc. Thanks
My honest thoughts on the insider sales:
The business model of Solar3D seems to be to acquire great solar companies by offering the owners a healthy amount of stocks which they will sell in scheduled blocks pursuant to 10b5-1 plans throughout the year to get paid. This is the only way owners of high revenue, profitable companies would sell their companies for cheap.
Well, it definitely works in terms of helping us to acquire great companies. But there is an associated dilution with it, and obviously insider sales never look good to new retail investors. Both have a negative effect on share price.
As with the much vaunted pnotes, the same concept applies here IMO in that the following question must be answered:
Is the negative and dilutive effect of the insider sales outweighed by the increase in share price caused by the additional value created in the company.
If guidance is met, which is $40-45 mil revenue and profitable for 2015, and the organic growth continues and we get more smart acquisitions which increase revenues/profits, then I believe the share price will rise significantly and the answer is yes.
If guidance is not met, and JN fails to deliver on acquisitions, then the insider sales are not worth it and share price will stagnate. AND I'M OUT.
I do believe guidance will be met. We'll see.
Then Danny Mitchell
Excellent analysis AB, makes sense. Plus we know Q1 is the slowest in terms of revenue recognition.
Chuck Norris?? Naaa, MANTIS. Excellent analysis on Reno, HUGE, much appreciated. I'm thinking the Reno division alone could have overall growth rates similar to the 135% growth rate Sunworks had in only Cali 2013-2014 from $8.5M to $20.2M. We'll see, looks good.
Haha, thanks RazMan, same to you! It would suit me well to take a breather from the war on bashers for a while. I feel like I'm fighting the white walkers, these guys just don't go away.
Q2 will be record revenue of $10M+, possible profitability. This is a way different situation than Q3 last year when we got too excited and overestimated the revenue. In our highest quarter yet, Q2 2014, the ending backlog the previous quarter was under $3 mil. The ending backlog last quarter was $14.7 mil, and JN confirmed on CC most of that would be realized Q2.
So yeah, gonna be shaky and trade $4-5 range till Q2 ER in late July or mid August. If you have the patience to hold two months you will likely be heavily rewarded. If not, BYE BYE