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Agreed with the 6 month horizontal trend. I'm factoring in the 4 catalysts that we know of left in the year to continue our upwards movement from now until end of December. If their announcements continue to support this trend then we could very well be sitting at or above .80 by years end. On another note I was just thinking about why badgers would be out in full force before 2 know data releases happening tomorrow and fri. My conclusion is that they are not stupid. They do not expect to drop the price substantially and reverse the upwards trend by bashing the stock on message boards and fight the news and data. I think they are simply just working for someone to either stabilize the price at these levels or dip it a little so that they can either cover the shares short or shake out loose shares from other retail investors and accumulate all they can before data gets released. It makes no sense for them to try to fight the upswing with known catalysts and data releases so closly packed together.
If you pull up the 3 month chart and draw a trend line from the .40 to where we are at now, we will be sitting somewhere around .80-.85 if the trend continues by the end of December. That's only taking into account only one milestone being announced. So 4 milestones left.
I'm guessing they will release pr on the data numbers/milestones before the open on thurs and fri, then explain into detail the data to scientists at the conference.
Remember the MM's took the price down the day before they released phase 2b combo trial news? Maybe same thing happening here? New indication or MCC? Covering their shorts before another substantial run up. Prob more than the 2b Combo release spike. Would be funny if some institution or large investor ruined their plans and bought the price up. Then short squeeze them at much higher prices but that most likely won't happen.
Well one good thing is that the volume is still high so when the milestones doea finally hit the news then there will be a more likely chance of an higher spike.
I thought those shares would get scooped up quick though.
Yea I only saw 120k tho. U just thought it was some retail investor selling.
Someone has to say it, how much of this price action do you think is attributed to naked shorting and how much is just traders selling shares they bought earlier?
No note one of the stated milestones to be met by years end. Just a bit of an extra surprise news and validation from yet another company and university in collaborating w oncs! there are 4 more stated milestones to be announced in December! Long term survival data, final phase 2a melanoma data, MCC data, and new indication possibly with a partner!
David, nice call this morning on today's price action. So i guess it didn't play out as you thought huh? Go up 2 cents and down 3-4 cents. Just saying, because you were so adamant about it.
Just need another influx of buyers to come in after lunch to push it over. The volume is there!
Do what you need to do. It's ur money and in the end it's either ur loss or ur gain.
Why would we go up a couple cents then dip down 3 cents? If you look at the charts for last week we did the complete opposite. We dipped at the open then got bought back up into the green and closed green the wed and fri. Things haven't changed, if anything it has gotten better in anticipation for the long term survival and final phase 2a data, as well as 2 other milestones that could be announced at anytime. So if it does dip at the open, I think it will be quickly bought up and close green most if not all next week. I can't wait to see the final data for both of these milestones!
If oncs could indeed turn 60-80 percent of the non responding population into responders then a 15-20 dollar buyout is not out of the question. Given that pd-1 is estimated to generate 35 billion in the next 5 years and Merck would be able to take a majority of the patient population and market share if oncs can deliver the results that they believe they can. Merck would be leaps and bounds ahead of their completion in response rates and lower SAE's. I don't think that a buyout offer will come until end of phase 3 and fda appoval however. So probally 3 years from now. Just imagine if everything went according to plan! Punit's shares alone would be worth close to 90 mil at 20 dollars a share, and I will be 33 and retired. I think that the prieces were being lined up right when dr. Pierce came to oncs. Now we have another member from Merck, our new in house attorney. Only time will tell.
20 dollars is a bit on the high side for a buyout in 2015. if we get offered 20 a share next year i hope they are not stubborn enough to turn it down
That's true, I think the new indication would be of more significance than mcc data PPS wise if they announce it with a partner.
I'm guessing mcc data on Monday, then long term survival the 4th, phase 2a melanoma data the 5th, then new indication with a partner soon after that. Could the partner also be Merck? Who knows? His last stop was also in Boston last week on his weeklong trip around America talking to investment firms.
I don't think we will need to worry about them is issuing more shares anytime in the next 6 months for they have around 35 mil give or take in the bank.
I think we close 2-3 cents off the high of the day if it goes above .65 today. 2 other catalysts next week.
i feel that this won't just be a one day pop but will put us in an up tread that will last until the last milestone is announced then pull back a little and continue. More articles from seeking alpha and other publications will cover this because it does have some significance for being the first combination therapy trial with a anti-pd1 drug.This event truly validates oncosecs potential from big pharma and its up to the company to deliver the results they are expecting to achieve.
Um isn't this investigator sponsored so doesn't it mean oncosec won't have to pay for it? Serious question, am I wrong in my thinking about what investigator sponsored means?
Sal it's still early, news sometimes doesn't post until right before the trading day starts. It shows that under Td ameritrade it has the same headline for MRK as oncs posted at the same time. As for needing to raise more cash, I don't think it will be until the second half ir end of 2015. This trial is basically free. It is investigator sponsored and we don't have to pay for the drug which is around 100k a person I believe, so overall a very big positive!
Yea me too. Maybe they have something else under their sleeves? Maybe a surprise with MCC? Or it could be new indication with a partner?
It shows up under my Td ameritrade acct in MRK news feed. Prob post on yahoo a little later they are a little delayed with their news
The news even shows up under Mercks news feed. This is the real deal guys!
Wow! Who would of ever thought a small biotech company less than 4 years old would be the first to collaborate with Merck to test its anti-pd1 drug using their device to see if they can increase safety and effectiveness! This is pretty huge guys. I'm not even pumping the stock, I'm just so excited about the possibilities if the results are even half as good as they believe it will be! Can you even imagine what deal they will get with Merck if the results are positive! All I can say is this might be the beginning and first step to something really special. Not just for anti-pd1 indications for melanoma but imagine when we go into other cancer indications if this trial is successful.
Possibly, for they it is one of the stated milestones set to be released before year end. If everything plays out according to the CEO's statements then December will be a really good month in terms of PPS and company fundamentals!
They have the final phase 2a melanoma data and the long term survival data
Hopefully the data releases on the 4th and 5th will create some positive momentum for the stock price. I think that people want evidence of success not just promises. I think we get verification then
I just think it's funny he only gets one post a day! Can't say I like the price action though. Really low volume for such a price drop. Can't believe they get away w this.
Punit's gonna read this and be like, "wtf have I gotten myself into with these people?"
Is it illegal to hire a private I to follow him lol. If not I'll throw in some $. We must be really desperate huh? Or just a group of the most determined investors ever, brainstorming on a message board.
i bet we close in the green today. only 200K shares traded so far today
Yea, I'm pretty certain. Someone who listened to their last couple presentations could prob back me up on it.
I know that they keep on changing the estimate that their cash will last, last presentation was at least 12 months and this is 2 years. I think that this might be a good clue to if they have a cash infusion through a partnership or not.
do you think that they will wait for the actual hard copy publication in december to release news?
Lol I was going to respond to them but you beat me to it. Idk if some people are trolling or don't understand what they are reading. 2b is with a anti pd-1 and this is a pre clinical combination study guys. So no this is not the phase 2b. This is great news though!
And that could of been the reason for delaying releasing news and milestones for the end of the year. To wait for confirmation from Merck that they finalized deal with Pfizer. Maybe a little far fetched but seems logical
Does anyone else here think that Merck already had something in place before they partnered w Pfizer and it was in the partnership agreement? Company says they would start the phase 2b trial by end of year then they prob had something in the works still. That could be one reason punit's last stop in in Boston. To go finalize the deal w Merck and Pfizer on the phase 2b partnership. Idk just speculating.
If you look at oncs news feed, we had 5 p.r.'s from October 27- November 13. That's about averaged to 2 a week. They are setting up for their milestone releases in December. If we keep up the pace we are going with press releases more people will take notice as the price starts to climb and once December comes and new data starts getting released who knows where we will be. I'm betting most definitely higher then where we are now! We've been waiting for a long time for this last month and a half and it is finally upon us. Can't wait to see how it plays out! Long and strong with half trading shares!