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Hi Clive, Most excellent. Very similar to what I've done. I like what you did to automate never buying more than your cash reserve. Clever.
BTW you can use https://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=OVTI+Historical+Prices to get the prices directly. Just substitute whatever symbol you want to check for OVTI and it will get that stock's data.
Now a couple of questions. Is the function of the VFISX to allow the inclusion of the changes to your cash reserves because it is held there? If so, why do you use the adjusted price? It would seem to me that when you put money in, say $5k, on one day at a price of $10/share, or 500 shares, and then when you want to draw some to fund a buy the number of shares you need to sell would determined by the actual trade price, say it was $10.20 and you needed $3k, then you would sell 294.11 shares.
As an example, in all of June and July of 2000, the open price and intraday never got lower than $9.98 and the intraday as well as the close never got above $10.03 yet the adjusted close ranged from $6.35 to $6.43. It would seem to me that if you bought on July 14th, 2000, you would have paid exactly $10.01 as it did not vary at all and if you sold it on July 31st, 2000, you would have gotten $10.02/share, not the adjusted close of $6.42.
What am I missing?
BTW, one of the things that has annoyed me about the way Yahoo displays the prices for the month is that they use the date for the first trade of the month but the price is actually for the last close of the month.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, I suspect you are correct. In my list of ETF/ETNs, 211 broke their 52 week low and another 11 are at their 52 week low. Over 15 of them are oil/coal/energy related. I'm putting my GTC for the energy sector at 10% below the 52 week level because that seems like it might be close to the bottom in the next couple of weeks.
Best,
Allen
Hi Jamil, Thanks for the details. I got a different buy for November than you did, 32 at the 45.06 price, and then for December another for 33 at 42.59, not sure why. I got almost the same PC as you did, 16424. The PC difference is probably the difference in the number of stocks involved.
I wonder if the difference is that I used an even 27 shares as the minimal buy/sell rather than a 10%, i.e. 27.4 shares and did not change it after the first virtual buy. Thoughts?
Best,
Allen
Note from AAII:
Hi Jamil, Thanks for your efforts. I can't seem to match your figure of $44.28. I used $20k position total, 25% cash, June 2nd price of $56.80, 274 shares, PC 14995, 10% buy and sell safe and 10% minimum stock sale. When I used the online AIM buy/sell calculator, I got a buy signal at $47.33 and so when the October price hit $45.06 there was a buy signal. Did you adjust PC for the delayed buys to get the $44.28 buy point?
When you have a series of buy signals, does one keep track of that on paper and total them to execute the buy or does one just use the number of shares that will exhaust the cash store that one has for that stock?
Doing the first might require considerably more cash on hand, which would be fine if you are using a single cash pool for multiple positions. However, this might limit your ability to respond to other AIM signals for other positions, especially when the market is volatile like it is at the moment.
Best,
Allen
Hi Orcroft, I agree with you about IYE and, additionally, the whole energy sector. Strictly guessing, but I think IYE will close below 40 sometime soon.
IYE is one example of why backtesting is not all that useful in choosing a position to buy into. Depending on the time frame used you get different results so it boils down to a judgement call and, as we know, that is subject to emotional responses and/or the Jim Cramer type hype. AIM, in one of its various permutations, does a great to truly superior job of managing one's portfolio but you still have to feed it the right grist for its mill.
On another point, I still don't quite understand what you mean by
Hi Karw, On DEM, I noticed that they have been breaking 52 week lows since the first of the month. I also noticed that as of today 155 ETF/ETNs are below their 52 week low and another 15 are at their 52 week low. Very interesting.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Sorry, I don't know how I missed the S&P ones, blind I guess. As to the international, I didn't include them because my thinking was that in a volatile market like it has been recently they might be more volatile and risky than desirable, as well as having potential currency trading problems, and so needed a closer examination. So, thanks Tom for adding them to the list.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Well I got all that I could find of ETFs and ETNs - even the best seem to have a few duplicates - 1621 in all. The following were the three groupings of sector funds:
Many singles but just these three are the only complete families of sector funds I could find. Interesting to note that none of them divide the sectors exactly the same and that while PowerShares has 9 they are not strictly the traditional ones.iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Index Fund ETF IYC
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Energy Sector Fund ETF IYE
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Sector Index Fund ETF IYF
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index Fund ETF IYG
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index Fund ETF IYH
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund ETF IYJ
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index Fund ETF IYK
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index ETF IYM
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund ETF IYR
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index Fund ETF IYW
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Index Fund ETF IYZ
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples Portfolio ETF PSCC
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary Portfolio ETF PSCD
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio ETF PSCE
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Financials Portfolio ETF PSCF
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Health Care Portfolio ETF PSCH
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Industrials Portfolio ETF PSCI
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Materials Portfolio ETF PSCM
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Info Tech ETF PSCT
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Utilities Portfolio ETF PSCU
ProShares Ultra Basic Materials ETF UYM
ProShares Ultra Consumer Goods ETF UGE
ProShares Ultra Consumer Services ETF UCC
ProShares Ultra Financials ETF UYG
ProShares Ultra Health Care ETF RXL
ProShares Ultra Industrials ETF UXI
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF DIG
ProShares Ultra Real Estate ETF URE
ProShares Ultra Technology ETF ROM
ProShares Ultra Telecommunications ETF LTL
ProShares Ultra Utilities ETF UPW
Hi Orcroft, Perhaps I missed something but my understanding of traditional AIM is that Portfolio Control (PC) only increases as you buy but does not decrease as you sell and that is the way the spreadsheet seems to work, yet you say:
Hi Toofuzzy, What is a "streamer?"
Thanks,
Allen
Blessings on St. Netstock!
After a bit of copy and paste from the NASDAQ ETF list, which they said there were 1546 listed, I loaded all of the symbols into Netstock and, except for two, it eliminated all the dupes to come up with 1186.
The dupes were minor pricing issues:
and:First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund FNI $ 30.58 11.93%
First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund FNI $ 30.60 10.24%
Who knows why, but it provides a cautionary note when looking at a web delivered database. They may not have done it right.iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF GOVT $ 25.01 2.62%
iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF GOVT $ 25.09 2.49%
iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF GOVT $ 25.09 2.49%
which shows how iffy 3x leveraged funds can be.Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares DUST $ 24.72 -52.93%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares NUGT $ 12.22 -51.90%
Hi Gang, I got a come on from Morningstar for one year for $69. Is it worth it?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Is7550, Yep, that could well be the root of the problems I've had as old training back when I did a bit of BASIC and COBOL was to never leave a blank line in a program. Put in a comment or some such if space was needed for readability.
Thanks yet again.
Allen
Thanks Toofuzzy. You belie your nomé de AIM.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, When you say, "Best of the Worst," how are you defining the best, most down or some other metric?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Alton, Having spent the day poring over ValueLine Small & Mid Cap for the Natural Gas (Diversified), Natural Gas Utility, and Pipeline Master Limited Partnerships, I think you are correct. However, I suspect they have a ways to go yet to hit bottom. Perhaps adopting Ocroft's method for selecting the right index to buy into might be a good idea. One slight adaption would be needed which is to go back and find a high point to start loading data from. Then look for a neutral or uptick after the last buy signal. This won't get you in at the bottom but awful close.
Now to find the right list of index funds to work with.
Best,
Allen
Hi OldAIMGuy,
Ah, didn't know about the "hidden characters." Perhaps this is why I have struggled with it.
On another point, you say, "Open Newport but set the date to the "Start" date of that investment." Is this just the Newport date or do I need to set the system clock back as well and then restore it to the current date?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Alton, An additional position you might consider is DO (Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc.). It, too, is near the 52 week low and a decent beta of 1.28. However, it does not have a great dividend rate so maybe it won't fit what you have in mind. I'm looking at it a being something for appreciation more than income.
Best,
Allen
Thanks Tom. Also thanks for the link to the previous post. Not sure why I couldn't find it but between that and the one Clive pointed to they will solve the problems I seem to have created for myself by thinking I knew what I was doing.
I've had problems getting historical data, buys/sells, into the .HST files so they can carry forward to the present. I was editing the files in Notepad but obviously mucking it up.
Thanks,
Allen
Thanks Clive. Very clear answer that will work just fine!
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Another Newport question....
When you place a buy in Newport on Wednesday, is that the date - say it is the November 26th - that it is recorded in the history file that date or is it the prior Sunday, November 23rd, or is it the subsequent Sunday November 30th?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Clive,
So what I do is create a separate directory for each instance like this:
C:/localfiles/Programs(x86)/AIM1/AllenNewport
C:/localfiles/Programs(x86)/AIM2/AllenIRANewport
C:/localfiles/Programs(x86)/AIM3/MartinNewport
C:/localfiles/Programs(x86)/AIM4/EvelynNewport
I have only one installation of DOSBox. Do I need one for each or does Newport find it on its own so only one is needed?
Alas, I can not easily move to PuppyLinux or FreeBSD because I have to do too much that is Windozes dependent, both for my clients and my daughter who is in college. Plus I'm getting to be a bit fossilized and jumping back and forth between different systems is proving prone to my stupid mistakes.
Thanks for your help.
Allen
Hi Is7550, (AKA Clive), Yes, that is what I was following with a couple of small changes. It seems to work okay but I just had a weird kink. I know I entered the data correctly for one position but the figures wound up off over 50%. Who knows, gremlins in the machine?
But I still can't find the info for creating multiple Newport instances. It may be that my attempt to create one is what created the very weird result mentioned above.
Best,
Allen
Hi Alton, You might want to keep an eye on XOP. It is less than 3% above its 52 week low, and, given what is going in in oil, might well crash the low. It has a 52 week range of 1.72/1 and a history of a fair amount of volatility. It is probably a good candidate for LD-AIM.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, or anyone else who can answer a couple of questions about Newport.
In creating a history file (*.HST) in Excel according to the instructions in cell R2 is =CONCATENATE(J2,I2,J2,",",L2,",",M2,",",N2,",",O2,",",P2,",",Q2)
What do cells N2 and O2 stand for or are supposed to contain?
The Newport requirement to add data on Monday is a minor pain. Is there anyway to reset the Sunday back to Friday so the data can be added on Saturday or Sunday?
The other thing is I seem to have misplaced the information about creating multiple Newport instances. Pointers, please?
As to progress with Newport I think I have finally gotten it to display things correctly, but I had to modify the instructions in the file about creating a .HST file. What I had to do to add positions that existed prior to using AIM/Newport was to reset the date at the initial sign in to the date of the original purchase and enter the data in the "Add Stock" screen. Then I opened the created Excel file and added the history file line data to the spreadsheet and pulled down the stock owned column to the current date. Then copy all of column R2:R(X) and paste into the the open .HST file and save.
Having done this the Hold Zone matches the online calculator.
The only thing about this is that the initial trade does not show in the "Recent Trades" window. Not a big deal, though.
Thanks,
Allen
And a HAPPY THANKSGIVING to you, Jon, as well as the rest of AIM gang!
Allen
Hi Grabber, Thanks for the explanation. I had not played with your LD-AIM spreadsheet all that much but now I understand it much better. I might be missing something but it seems as if this is for calculations but not for keeping track of what you have done. Do you simply note the figures and enter them into the standard AIM spreadsheet for tracking and then use that to record subsequent buys/sells? Do you set a series of GTC orders in each direction using the Work Table thresholds?
Another question, do you do delayed buys and sells? If so, how do you track that, both the buy/sell points and the number of stocks to buy/sell at that point?
Thanks, and Happy Turkey Day!
Allen
Hi Gang, It's amazing what you can find. How about a beta of 7.3? Check out the ETF ADZ!
In following up my post about screening ETFs I went looking for a list of them. An almost complete list is at the NASDAQ site and they have a screener that divides by sector or industry.
Another useful thing there is a calendar of ex-dividend dates that you can use to find positions that are likely to take a dive afterward so you can get a bit of a discount.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, In looking for two different things; a place to park my spare cash and have it earn a bit but not have very much volatility so when money is drawn out per AIM's instructions there is little, if any loss, and positions that have high volatility to get the most from AIM's strategy. This also might find those sectors/industries that are most out of favor at the moment. I decided to see if I could spreadsheet this.
First I gathered a bunch of ETFs and punched them into Netstock. Then I took that data and added a couple of calculations, the 52 week high/low % change and then, since I would want to buy in near the low, the percentage above the 52 week low. I left in the column for dividend. volume.
The one that was the winner for the bank was:
The rest of what I've done so far is below.52 52 %
Symbol Name Week Current Week Range Above Dividend Dividend Volume
Low Price High % Low $/year %
HYG iShares 89.21 92.05 95.43 6.97% 3.183% 5.21 5.67 1,780,735
Hi Grabber, I'm curious about your reasoning to have an equal amount of virtual shares. Could you please explain more?
Thanks,
Allen
Thanks Toofuzzy. I suspected as much.
I was reading something the other day about the common mistakes made by most investors and one of them was trying to follow analysts, CNBC, and other financial "news." Too often, it was said, that the real purpose and result of this "news" is to hook into people's emotions so they can make money. This makes it hard to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I was not talking about the situation where you got a dividend equal to the amount lost when you sold the position, but the much more realistic situation where the dividend is more in line with the average, 5-15%/year of the value. Also I was addressing the situation where you were holding a high volatility position that you find has gone down prior to the end of the year, as might happen if you were looking to AIM something and started buying as it was headed down. Because you can not predict the low point, you might not have bought it at the low point or as it had already started on its way back up.
My thought is that near the end of the year might be a good time to jump on a position that you want in any case, regardless of whether you feel it has gone down as far as is likely, given its previous history. This way you can help spread out your RMD over more years and leave money invested to gain over time as well as avoiding current taxation. This is a good idea only if you don't need the money for current expenses.
Best,
Allen
Thanks Tom! Perhaps a sticky could be placed that had a list of this and similar resources for all to use.
Best,
allen
Hi Grabber, Congratulations on your Micron success! And thanks for the explanation on how you price things. Yup, roundish figures are a bit easier.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I mentioned DuckDuckGo as a favorite search engine. Other favorite search engines are Startpage.com and Ixquick.com. All three mask your search and protect your privacy. The later two are the only search engines in the world with a European Privacy Seal. DuckDuckGo uses similar approaches.
At Don't Track Us is a neat page about tracking on the net. At Don't Bubble Us is a great page about how the search results you get off of most search engines are limited by what you have searched for before.
At Fix Tracking is useful information on how to improve your privacy with a variety of plugins for your browser. And at What is Do Not Track is the reality check on that setting in your browser.
Have fun.
Allen
Hi Gang, Remember I was asking about alternatives to a given ETF? Well, duh, I entered "XLE ETF Alternatives" into one of my two favorite search engines, DuckDuckGo, and lo and behold, it pointed me at Seeking Alpha where in the lower right were several. So I tried a few more and they seem to have at least 4 or 5 possible alternatives one could use to avoid the 30 day wash rule.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Is there any value to be gained from a $50 subscription for 100 weeks to Bloomberg/BusinessWeek?
I don't mind getting it but don't want to spend much time when there is no real value. Besides I already have enough to fill my recycling bin without adding more.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, That is not what my accountant said. He said that the value of my Benefit IRA on December 31st of the year in question would be the sum total of cash on hand and the value of the stocks, bonds, etc. at the valuation of the close of the market on the last trading day of the year. I called TDAmeritrade to confirm this and they said the same thing.
As it was explained to me, if I bought something for $100 and its value was $50 at the end of the year, that is the amount that will be used for the RMD for the subsequent year. This would be the case regardless one was running an AIM warehouse with this or not.
Best,
Allen
Hi Grabber, I was looking at your post of a while ago about CREE and was trying to figure out your sale points: