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Hi Jamil, You may well be right about the beta being a miscalculation. I don't know how beta is actually calculated, just that it is supposed to represent volatility relative to the market (S&P 500?) with a beta of less than one being less volatile.
BTW, are you going to make your software available for purchase? I love the look of the screen with everything all in one place.
Best,
Allen
Hi Ray, Thanks for the explanation of you way of dealing with a low range/low volatility position. What you describe is very similar to the "Stock Trading Riches" investment system by Praveen Puri.
As to bring it up here, I think it is great because no one system works for every position or need. The more ideas, the better for all.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I'm sorry if you misunderstood my post, but I meant a $10,000 stock purchase, implying either a $20,000 traditional by the book position or an AIM-High of $12,500, 80/20 split. Cash reserves are of no consequence for what I was discussing.
As to the 10, 10, 10% not being the traditional setting, I'm sorry you did not realize I was implying % for each of buy, sell, and minimum quantity of stock to sell.
When the total rage is only 20-25% and you do not buy in near the bottom you'll never get a 15% move up to get a sale nor a 15% move down to get a buy unless you buy in near the top. That is the issue I was addressing with the traditional settings.
Rate of Return is dependent on having some degree of volatility, which most ETFs/ETNs do not have. And the leveraged ETFs/ETNs are considerably more risky so for them there is the trade off of risk of total loss with the greater possible return.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I've been struggling with how to deal with ETFs and other positions which have a narrow 52/104 week range such as XLB. It has a 52 week range of $44.09 to $52.22 and a 104 week closing price range of $37.71 to $52.09, 18.44% and 38.13%.
So, if you buy in at 33% below the two year high, as Alton suggests this would be ~$34.37, below the 104 week low, not likely to happen any time soon. What about 33% down on the 104 week range? That would be ~$47.34 (52.09-37.71=14.38*.33=4.75, 52.09-4.79=47.34)
Okay, using the default AIM buy/sell and % of stock of 10%, 10%, 10% and the online calculator, assuming ~$10,000 of XLB bought at ~$47.34, 211 shares you get a sell price of $59.18 and a buy at $39.45. The sell will not likely happen for a very long time but the buy is possible. Obviously we need to reduce the sell %. At 5% it only drops to $55.70, still likely no go. At 0% it is $52.60, possible but not likely all that soon. So what to do? Reducing % of stock to 5% gets a sell at $49.83 and a buy at $41.17. much better but another problem comes up, the size of the trade drops to $536 and $434, which, at ~$20 round trip or about 4%, not great and sure eats into your returns.
What I come to the conclusion of is that you need to buy at least $20,000 worth of this type of position to make trading somewhat affordable at this narrow trade range.
Anybody got thoughts about this?
Because I am still digging out from under my mother's broker's choices I don't have enough spare cash to do more than two narrow range ETFs so I'm looking for alternatives. Ideas?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Jamil, EGY looks like it might be very worthwhile. Looking back at the last few years there seems to be good volatility, about 2:1 over about two year periods with some ups and downs in between. Now it is down 3:1 due to the crash in oil but I'm guessing that won't last forever so you should see some action in the not too distant future.
The only potential problem I see is that the beta is only 0.83 but I'm not sure. What I have read here and other places is that a beta of 1.2 is the low end for best results. I've also notice a comment that very beta stocks can work as well but I'm not sure how that works. Perhaps Tom or one of the other could refresh our understanding about the beta issue with an example or two.
Best,
Allen
Hi Sven, Your question about bull/bear market turn:
Hi Toof, When you say
Hi Gang, I meant AIM-HI not LD-AIM. Sorry about that.
Hi Clive, Great, short explanation of LD-AIM.
A couple of additional points to consider when selecting a position are the beta, volatility relative to market as a whole, and 52 week price range.
For the first, most advice seems to be select ones with at least a beta of 1.2 up to about 2.0. More than 2.0 may have too much risk. Some people have seen good results with very low betas as well. I haven't really tested this myself.
The traditional advice is to select a position with a 52 week range of two to one, i.e. as an example, $10 to $20. With the traditional buy/sell safe figures this works well for most stocks but ETF/ETNs typically have a much smaller range so you may have to tinker with those settings.
Keep in mind that four things affect the price that generates a buy or a sale:
1) Portfolio control
2) Buy/sell safe percentage
3) Minimum number or percentage of stocks to buy/sell
4) Minimum dollar value of a buy/sell
In some cases you need to play with them to see what works by backtesting. I've found doing more than about two years counter-productive, but it also pays to look at the charts going back further just to see if the position tracks the market long term. For example WLT did not react to the 2002-3 downturn but did to the 2008-9 downturn. Also it has lost much more stock value recently than others in the basic materials/energy sector with a high in November of $3.29 down to recent price low of $0.34, nearly a 90% drop where others have lost around 50% in the same time frame.
Best,
Allen
Welcome Sven, Drop me an e-mail at 60e20f21@opayq.com and I'll send you a version of the one Tom referred you to. I've added a couple of calcs for return on investment, and a version that lets you back test with delayed buy/sell to see if that works for you.
Learning the spreadsheet is very important but even more important is selecting the right position to AIM and the right time to enter a position. There has been a number of posts about this here so it is worth looking at prior posts by OldAIMGuy, Toofuzzy, Alton, karw and others. You might look at some of mine as well as I have often asked questions that get replies with some answers that might help.
You will have to make up your own rule set for the AIM parameters to use, what you will be looking to invest in, and when to invest. Expect to change them as you learn more.
Best,
Allen
Hi Alton, Wish I had seen your comment about starting with $6250 for a position. I started one, USO, with too much, $9900, and it almost immediately dumped 3.5%. And I bought almost at the 52 week low as well as the 2 year low! I guess energy has not hit its bottom yet. I wonder how much longer it will continue to go down? Even OXY seems to be taking a hit.
In order to have a diverse portfolio I want to keep each position below ~$12k. So I have the 80/20 ratio but that may not be enough given how volatile energy has been. Fortunately I have a dual pool for reserves, one specific for a given position and a joint one for use where it might be needed. If divided out it would be around 26% per position but by keeping it separate it gives me a bit more flexibility for the unforeseen,
BTW, SFGate.com has a sector ranking from Bloomberg on Sundays. Between looking at the out of favor sectors they also list biggest losers for the week.
Best,
Allen
Hi Alton, So, when you set 0% safe sell you are relying on the minimum stock %? What % do you use?
BTW, are you sticking mostly with low price positions as they tend to have more volatility?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Alton, Great idea! Avoids two problems: exhausting cash before the bottom and the dip that is a false one - the October dip that can, with some positions, lose ~25.
What is the sequence you use? I think that the same idea could be used with ETFs that have a narrow range but cutting the numbers a bit.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, Yep, but don't you think it might be a bit late in the cycle to buy in? Or do you think that since dollar is predicted to grow in strength over the next two years it might still be worthwhile?
Thanks,
Allen
Thanks Toofuzzy, Not at all fuzzy, in reality. Your commentary is excellent and you are quite right that one needs to separate what you want to own from when you should buy it.
The sectors I think that are good for the long haul are commodities, energy, and healthcare as those will always have a market. The others I think are a bit more problematic, and can have long down periods, but if bought in a down market can be wise choices as well.
As to exactly which to buy in each sector, or just buy the sector as a whole, that is the first question. Thanks for your suggestions.
As to buying when when a position is down when you buy it, this is the virtue of LD-AIM as I understand it. Instead of 50/50 stock/cash one can do 80/20 (90/10 if you are very brave {or foolhardy?}!) and as it goes up sell as AIM tells you to and put some of the cash into another position, leaving enough behind to take care of future downturns. Depending on what it is, using the V-Wave, you could stop at ~40% or go on up to ~60% for riskier positions like leveraged ETF/ETNs such as MORL or your suggestion of ERX.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, I remembered one of the reasons why the "commission free" ETFs at various brokers might not be a good deal.
I went looking for backup to my memory and came across Hidden costs of Schwabs free ETF trades which explains the issues.
Basically there are three problems: the ETF manager pays a fee to be listed on the broker's free list which results in higher management fees, they tend to be less favorable versions of the index they follow, and they tend to have lower daily volume.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Two of the portfolios are very overweight in MORL so I do not want to buy more, especially since it is an ETN. I have been salting away the dividends from it but have not found good, or at least what seems good to me, positions to take yet.
As to the "free" ETFs at TDAmeritrade, of the 101, 85 of them have a very narrow 52 week range and when I test them with AIM, I get almost no trading activity, just very small dividends. In fact, for most of those I get more interest in my checking account at my credit union, so they don't make a lot of sense to me.
As to the others they are significantly near their 52 week highs so, given that this bull market is getting a bit long in the tooth, they seen fairly risky.
What do you see that I might be missing?
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, When you say
Hi Adam, Looking at the image it might be that it was bought at $11.15/share, making the total $167.25 plus commission - assume TDAmeritrade of $9.99 - total cost $177.24. Much worse than the $154 you assumed. This is why I was questioning the image, but not as clearly as I should have, and I should not have put my questions into the same posts. Oh well.
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Tom, I get the idea I was just questioning the image:
where you say that you sold 15 shares on 12/20 for $12.3350. Was that an error or a fluke?
As to the amount to keep cost down, my portfolio isn't large enough to get down to 1% at this point. To help deal with this I'm going to open an account at Trade Station where the cost is $0.01/share and tops out at $6.99. I have to wait to do this so I can have $100k account there. This will happen in April or May when two bonds come due and I can put that amount into a very long term position and still have some spare cash for AIMing.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Just got my 1099 from TDAmeritrade and there are some strange errors in it so I advice you to look yours over carefully. In one case they left out the basis so it looks like the price I sold it for is all profit when in fact it should have been a loss of ~$190.
Best,
Allen
Hi Tom, and Gang;
Does it make sense to sell 15 shares at $12.335 ($185.025) when the cost of the sale is $9.99 (TDAmeritrade's price)? That is a bit over 5%. Seems high to me given people talking about selling in $500 minimum lots.
The other question I have is that in the two trusts I still have some inherited positions that are more than 20% down from purchase price and they don't seem to be moving all that much one way or another plus they are too high a percentage of the total pool such that I don't want to add to them as they hit lower lows. Only one did it make sense to add to as it was a small position - SVVC - as it was only 200 shares but lost a bit over $4/share yet the dividend income total paid almost half of the additional purchase. Plus at well under 2% of the total portfolio, even with sporadic dividends, it seemed to make sense.
The others I've managed to get out of with either a small gain or a loss of $1-300, which, given the size of the positions - $15,000 to $29,000 - was trivial.
What I need to know is whether to get a big loss and get out from under the large positions such as MORL which is almost 55% of one portfolio and about 45% of the other with a loss of about $18,000 as they are about 12% down. MORL is paying monthly and seems to be getting 18-20% return annually. Hanging on might be the best bet for now. What does everyone think?
The other question is how would I move them into AIM positions so they could be tracked that way? I'm not sure how to create the right Portfolio Control number. Any suggestions?
I know I can set the Buy such that it would have to take one hell of a dive before any buy signal would happen, but I'm not as sure of how to set a sell signal such that it would not be selling into negative territory. Suggestions?
The other thing is that I'm now sitting on a fair pile of cash, more than is needed for the AIM positions, but I don't see any clear positions to acquire given the highly volatile market the last two months so I've been sitting on my hands. Does this make sense?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Grabber, as to "We don't Speak of Wednesday." The NSA ate it when they s#$@*ed up the installation of the back door.
Thanks for your time in any case. Let's hope they learn something from it.
Allen
Hi Tom, Thanks for your thoughts, but what I was really trying to figure out was where a reasonable entry point would be for what. Sorry about using volatility instead of trend, but I think of them as closely related, especially for ETFs which tend to have a narrower range and perhaps a slower trend line.
For cash positions it makes more sense to have a low volatility (beta) position so as to not lose much over time, so this also seems to be a position, like SPFF with a 52 week range of about 6% and an income a bit over 6.5%. (PFF is similar), is the right type of choice. It seems to me that this low 52 week volatility translates into a slow moving trend line.
For portfolio positions it seems one wants a higher beta (volatility) position to be able to catch the trend moves over a shorter time period, but not so volatile that there is a high risk of losing your shirt on the way down. This is where the LD-AIM model seems to help as you have less at risk in real dollar terms. Orcroft's delayed buy also helps. Now trying to figure out how to model the two together is the problem.
All I can say is that I am beginning to understand why most people are almost clueless about money management and truly planning for the future. It is a job that requires real effort and if you fail to put the required effort into it you will get bit in the ass.
Best,
Allen
Thanks Adam for your insight and approach. There is so damn much to pay attention to over such a wide range of potential positions and so many ways of analyzing that I tend to get into a bit of "paralyses by analysis." No matter which potential position I look at and test there seem to be good possible positions and others that make no sense at all. Plus, I really need to look at almost all the data behind the position to avoid getting blind sided. I know once I clean up the mess and chose reasonable positions to stick with for the longer haul it will be less time consuming but it takes time to get there. Bowler Bob's comments about what type of investor you are, "I believe, and act upon, the idea that a person needs to know what kind of investor they are, and act within those "boundaries" is critically important, I just haven't figured it out yet, alas.
Newport seems to help but can be time consuming for analyzing potential positions given I'm running it on W7 and not in a virtual machine where at least the process is a bit faster. The various spreadsheets have a similar problem but are a bit more transparent about what is happening and why.
It seems that Hing's Automatic Investor is a bit easier given it auto loads data but his 10 day trial is too short for real testing. What does everyone think of it, overall? The price is not all that much but it seems that he has not done all that much to update it in recent times.
I find some of the labels confusingly named and have struggled with that while getting other things done that need attending to, so any feedback is most welcome.
As to the trusts, I am making progress in getting out of some of the worst positions with tiny gains and building cash reserves for future positions. This will allow me to diversify better but the market is so volatile, up one day, down the next, it has been a bit of a pain.
Thanks to all of you for your help,
Allen
Hi Gang, Been a bit out of it - oral surgery and other painful stuff - so I need to catch up.
The key area I'm interested/concerned about is oil/energy sector. Given that I have seen gas go up 0.35+ in just over a week around here do you think this might be a harbinger of energy sector stocks/ETFs? I suspect not quite yet but who knows, I sure don't.
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Adam, I had exactly the same problem with the MyAIM sheet. Also adding a 5 to column Y did nothing for the next line, but then that might take more than one line to show the results.
What I don't understand is that line 18 is fine but not line 19: Lower hold -0.45 Upper hold 0.49 Hold zone 4200. And the New Portfolio Control amount goes to zero.
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Gang, Additional thoughts about looking at different metrics for entry, especially for ETFs and other low 52 week range stocks.
As I pointed out, buying in at 30% above the 52 week low does not make a lot of sense, especially when the range is relatively narrow like most ETFs. With SDRL this is not a big issue as the range is a bit over 4 to 1. But with XLF, say the current 52 week range - 21.19 - 25.14 would never trigger a buy or sell. Since AIM requires volatility to do its magic this would turn it into B&H with all its limitations. Many other ETFs/ETNs also have narrow ranges. Of the 1507 on my list, only 277 have a 52 week range bigger than 1.5 to 1. Only 29 have a range of 3 to 1.
Does this mean we should avoid ETFs/ETNs? No, but we need look at the settings to work around the problem.
Since we will never catch the exact bottom of a downtrend where should we buy? Clearly not 30% above the low for almost all that we wish to hold.
Here is what I suggest. Take the high price and subtract the low. Divide this by 10 and then add that to the 52 week low. This is where you buy in after it has gone below that figure.
So for SDRL this approach would get us in at 12.31, for practical purposes the same as the AIM sell signal. On XLF, looking at the last two years on a monthly basis, with a $20k position, we would get in at 21.59 and leave us enough room to get a sell signal at 22.81 and a buy at 18.25 with 20% cash, 10% buy and sell, and 5% minimum shares. However, looking at the last two years you would still be waiting because the price to get a fresh buy (at 18.25) at is below the 52 week low, below the low all the way back to April 2013, looking at daily prices.
Almost all of those with dividends that are above 4% have a range considerably less than 2 to 1. Only 5 have a range of 2 to 1 or better.
A couple of lessons, ETFs/ETNs don't make great fodder for AIM. ETNs being considerably riskier than ETFs because of the risk of going to zero with bond/note defaults are probably best avoided, especially given that we are in strange economic times and that we are likely to see a significant down turn in the market sometime in the next couple of years because the bull market is getting long in the horn and will likely gouge the hell out of the market when it turns bearish.
Another lesson might be to have cash available to get some of those dividend paying ETFs when they take a hit.
It is clear that selecting the right fodder for AIM is a key to success.
Best,
Allen
Hi Alton, Thanks for the tip. Is Gurufocus.com worth the $349/year you think?
Thanks,
Allen
Thanks Adam, got it. Now a couple of questions. What does $/Y stand for in column Y? I notice that you have to enter rather large numbers to change the results in column AC. What is that number and what is it supposed to stand for? How do you derive that number?
Then in column AC you have the formula:
=IF(A18<>"";1+(A18-A17)/365*Y17/100;"")
What function does 365*Y17 serve? It looks like a divide by zero error if Y17 = 0 because 365*0 = 0. Is there a set of parens missing or some additional number missing?
I noticed something a bit screwy in the Test page as it downloaded in the Hold Zone calcs and can't quite figure out how or why. Here is an image of the section.
How did the Hold Zone % go to 4000% and the lower hold zone go to a negative number? Did something get corrupted during the upload? Or is it the problem with the formula above divide by zero issue? Or is something screwy with the New Portfolio Control? That goes to zero and I'm not sure why.
I downloaded it a second time to check to make sure it was not on my end and got the same results.
Best,
Allen
Hi Orcroft, Jamil, and the rest of the gang; I want to posit a slightly different view of when to enter and what metrics one might consider in deciding when is a good time.
In looking at S&P 500 historically there a a couple of things that are not obvious but are often not considered, the primary one is the effect of inflation on the market price. Viewing inflation adjusted S&P 500 at http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price/ it shows that there is a general uptrend in the price of the average. Combine this with the cyclical nature of our economic system and one might consider using the 52 week low, or very near it, as an entry point. Look at the history of SDRL. The low point in its history is in November 2008 at $5.45. If you use the 50 year inflation rate for my area at 3.77%/year (about 1.5% over current) the price this coming November would be ~$7, about 40% of the current price.
Now look at why it is at the price it is, a crash in the price of oil. Is it likely that oil prices will go up? I'd bet on it. It may take a while, but AIMers are known for their patience so that should be not be any great barrier to buying and holding, of course buying and selling as the stock gyrates due to market volatility, for the longer haul. Now, what other metrics should be considered? I'd say the position of the company to weather the current down draft and resume its raise in stock price is one, another is the current P/E versus historical and market historical, and another, much harder to evaluate, is the coming increase in regulation that is quite likely given a variety of toxic spills that have happened recently. This last one is a gamble as we do not really know what the company is prepared for in this area. Are they forgetting to look to and solve future problems for their products or they are stuffily holding onto their buggy whip technology?
Now look at the other metrics that might make it a good AIM stock. Beta of 1.39, a daily volume of ~5mm shares a day which would likely prevent us from being stranded with a stock with no value, unless, of course, they have to go into bankruptcy, and a tasty dividend, although not likely to be as much as the last few; however, not to be ignored.
So, do we use metrics like MACD, which always trail events, the AIM buy/sell signals which also trail events or do we combine them with other measures? I think looking at the bigger picture in addition to charts is the better choice.
At the current market price of ~$12 it is about 30% above its market 52 week low (still above its inflation adjusted historical low) which reduces the potential upside (Yahoo projects about $20) considerably and the ability to sell some of your holdings at a nice profit.
What are the risks with having gotten in just after it hit the 52 week low? It might go lower still and/or the company could be in dire straits with contract cancellations and/or no new contracts. This is a real possibility as both BP and Chevron are shutting down underwater exploration for the time being as the cost of production is too high.
So, what it really boils down to, it seems to me, is what the value is of the company and whether it is under priced but robust, the same metrics Warren Buffet uses. Is he buying any SDRL? I'd love to know.
In any case, I think inflation adjusted prices are a good metric to use as well as any other you might use.
Best,
Allen
Sorry Adam, which where are you referring to? There are several and I thought I had grabbed them all but I don't recognize having one with the changes you made. I have the LD-AIM spreadsheet and have played with it
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Adam, What modifications have you done to the original version?
I've added CAGR (week and month intervals as well), % gain/loss, single commission cost, and auto populate on one of the sheets for backtesting to mine and I'm always looking for other possible changes that would make it more useful.
If you like we can exchange copies. Drop me a note at 5a657f5f@opayq.com and I'll happily send you a copy.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, Given that, in my neck of the woods, inflation over the last 50 years has averaged 3.77% and that as we age medical and other expenses tend to increase, my thinking is that the higher number is better. Also adjusting your budget to meet your real income is a good idea.
My mother's understanding was that the retail investor could only count on real returns of about 2% above inflation after taxes, etc. After all, even if one were in only the 15% bracket, which most of us are not, that plus state taxes would mean at least 20% would be lost to friction in the system. My combined rate is about 35%, not exactly chump change, so the earnings above my current level get whacked more than just a bit.
I don't think it is quite as bad as 2% but expecting a whole lot more and not getting it could put you into a real bind. 50% of all bankruptcies in this country are for medical debt so age and the normal expectation that has proven true, for the most part, that one spend about 80% of all your medical costs in the last 5 years of your life is worth taking into your accounting as to how much you might need.
Best,
Allen
Hi Toofuzzy, I suspect that your figure is a bit low as most people would say you should not withdraw more than 4%/year if you want your money to last. This would mean, after deducting SS, multiply by 25 but I think that is too little given our longer lives and the likely chaos given the political situation in this country and around the world. I think that you need about 30 times your yearly requirements in your portfolio.
No, I did not need to read the book for that, but rather to figure out how to talk with my daughter as a bald statement would be ignored as being what dad says. It can be ignored. I also read it to be able to talk with the members of the credit union I'm on the Board of Directors of so that they can be better prepared 35+ years from now.
Best,
Allen
Interesting read: "The Number - What Do You Need for the Rest of Your Life, and What Will It Cost?" by Lee Eisenberg.
Most of what is in it is stuff we mostly already know but have not necessarily assembled quite as clearly as he has put it together. This is an especially valuable book for the younger reader, like my college age daughter. Now to get her to actually read it and implement the thinking as she plans (kids plan?) for her future.
But even for me it was a very useful read, especially the part about the crash dummies examples. I recommend it because it challenges common thinking but does not talk solely about high-wealth people like so many of the magazines and books do who think that everybody has $100K to get started with.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Is the CBOEO EX implied Volatility (^VXO) index a rough inverse metric for market down position?
In Feb 2009 it was 42 for the week of the 9th and 49 for the week of the 17th. In looking at last October it hit a daily high point on the 15th of 23.18.
Seems like it to me and this may make it a good metric to look at like the ValueLine Appreciation Potential that the VWave is calculated from. It might be a possible metric like the 13/30 SMA for getting into a position.
Best,
Allen
Hi Gang, Does anybody know about the SKEW/VIX ratio, its relationship to market cycles and how it is calculated?
Thanks,
Allen
Hi Gang, Not many ETFs/ETNs that broke their 52 week low today. SPFF still seems to have the highest yield and the least volatility at 6.82% with a 52 week range of only 5.57% from low to high range. It is also only 1.74% above its 52 week low so it might be worth looking at for holding a portion of your cash.
For ETF/ETN volatility the most was JNUG (3x leveraged) at 2270% over 52 weeks, plus it pays 3.03% at the current price, so if you want Froggy's Wild Ride, hop on. However, it is 86.4% above the low at $34.10. It might be headed down.
More rational choices might be DIG, TQQQ, XOP, GLDX, OSMS, XES, SMIN, and SCIF with volatility around 90-105%. OSMS even pays a dividend of 3.24% at a price of $24.55.
Best,
Allen
Hi Grabber, The law in the US for trusts based in the US, is that they are required to pay out 90% or more of their net income. There are a couple of minor fiddles that can affect this a bit, not not all that much. There are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) and others that often seem to be commodity trusts. I see them around oil and natural gas. There are probably others that I am not aware of.
A couple of things to watch for is the stability of the price for the shares, the 52 week (more is wise to look at) range, high to low, are they selling at, above or below Net Asset Value (NAV) and how long the trust will be in existence. Another thing to look for with all trusts is what will happen with the money you spent on the shares. Most, but not all, return the par value when the trust ends. Some, however, collapse to no value at all - go to zero - once certain conditions are met. Oil trusts are often like that. Once they have delivered x per the trust agreement then it ends, period.
One example of this is WHX.