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You just causally stated that they will issue additional 500M shares when current outstanding is about 160M shares. Are you serious?
According to your other post, you haven't owned shares of APT in the last 5 years. So what exactly are you running away from?
LOL what a joke. I bet you won't even leave this forum and will come back with more nonsense.
LOL. You mean all these other years that the world was on lockdown beacuse of a deadly virus and have imposed export bans of PPE because of this and the US goverment has commited 100s of billions to deal with it while we see people with masks (in many cases mandatory) in western countries when previously it was unthinkable?
When exactly did that happen?
If you want out that's fair enough but that is no reason to leave BS on your way out
LOOOOOL
Do you know why? Because ALL supply goes to the hospitals. Once the hospitals build enough stock and N95s start flowing the market as before, what do you think is going to happen?
LOOOOOOOOOOL
You do realise that was nonsense right?
What it means is that you cannot use a mask more than once. You buy one, you use it once (to go to work for example), but on your way back you need to use a new one to be safe.
And actually you can get fined now in Texas if you don't use a mask
https://abc7news.com/laredo-texas-coronavirus-wearing-masks-covid-19/6070888/
and other places in the US are starting to recommend them. As I suspected from the start, the story changed. Masks not only help, but they are ESSENTIAL to slow the spread AND get people safely to work or the supermarket. And they have to change them often. So please DO short, I'd like to see this pop hard taking all the DD-averse, tea leaf reading shorts out.
LOL this is ridiculous. Development of new drugs takes a bear minimum of 5 years. There will be vaccines in 18 months.
This is why it started to rise again
"$1,000 fine to residents caught without a mask in Texas city"
https://abc7.com/health/$1k-fine-to-residents-caught-without-mask-in-texas-city/6070888/
There are PPE export bans pretty much everywhere now. APT one of the few options left
Seconded!
Exactly. But also to add that although clearly masks help, an N95 on a health or emergency service professional will provide more protection for the population than it will provide on a person from the general population if that means that N95 is not longer available for the professional. These people MUST come first in using the N95s.
FYI
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/health/us-coronavirus-face-masks.html?referringSource=articleShare
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says (Note that Science is one of the most respected scientific journals)
More importantly, it doesn't even matter from a revenue point of view. Billions of masks are needed just for the hospitals, emergency services etc. All everyone has to do is make as many as they can.
All the doubters questions answered in one CNN video. Production increased by 5000%, 160 workers in total (from about 10 last year), no issues about sourcing raw material.
Biggest customer is the US gov and the hospitals and they will accumulate stock for the next 18 months as per the gov solicitation I previously posted. This is because there is ongoing demand on one hand and the Strategic stockpile on the other. Of course there is the continuous demand from the general public now of course and which we can safely expect it will stil be much higher YOY this and likely the following winters.
Again, according to CDC, it is BILLIONS of masks the US needs just for the services, let alone the demand from the general population.
Is this a bot?
NO. EU banned EXPORT of masks, they did not ban sale of masks in the EU. Means $APT has even less competition and, in my opinion, it increases the chance they get some aid to expand further.
60% is the latest growth, which is on top of already substantial reported increases in accepted orders.
Can you provide a source for not "expanding significantly"? Because they say otherwise and only a few days ago they reported a further 60%+ increase in accepted orders.
They are expanding as they have stated many times and also keep in mind that APT has been (and remains) profitable and had (and still has) an active share buy back programme LONG before the coronavirus crisis. Also keep in mind that all major mask and ppe producing countries have BANNED exports (or only allow export of "gesture" quantities) of ppe equipment. It is my speculation that the US gov will have no choice but to fully and actively support increase of domestic production.
LOOOOOOOOOL
Being sheep won't make you any money in the stock market
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/hhs-clarifies-us-has-about-1percent-of-face-masks-needed-for-full-blown-pandemic.html
https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/04/hhs-to-procure-n95-respirators-to-support-healthcare-workers-in-covid-19-outbreaks.html
And that is JUST for the health services without taking into account the EXTREME demand from the general population.
Shorts WILL be burned.
Thousands? CDC estimates we will need OVER 1.2 BILLION just for the health services
Actually it is $22.6M now, >60% increase relative to the report on the 27th of February. And that's just for masks, they now report segnificant sales of other ppe also.
I have sent several emails to their IR with no reply. I think everyone should pressure them to provide an update. We need to know if the previous updates (which coincided perfectly with insider selling) were just for management to make some money or if they plan to provide additional updates.
ir@alphaprotech.com
From reddit
"I actually bought 1000 more bringing the total to 4000 shares for this trade (note that I don't play with money I need and my total investment fund is massively larger than this). The masks don't help farse is going to end soon, check in the article where it has a hyperlinked sentence that ends with "and more". Click on that link and you will see the measures Taiwan took to contain it, about half of them concern stocking and making masks available.
The farse will end soon :)
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/future-perfect/2020/3/10/21171722/taiwan-coronavirus-china-social-distancing-quarantine
"
They actually have an active share buyback programme (and only 8M float). Check their reports. They put aside some of the profits (they have been profitable for a long time, unlike MOST of the "coronavirus" stocks) every year to buy back shares. And although this year the pps will be higher, they will also have A LOT more cash.
LOOOOOL. Do you have ANY idea how companies work? That's what options are for, this is their bonus, why would they not take it?? I would have done exactly the same thing.
Why do you want them to go private?
I was very conservative, US needs may be 1.2B N95 respirators alone, and 3B surgical masks. Also if it was a more serious event they would need 3.5B N95 alone. We known they will be stockpiling forbat least 18 months. And that is JUST for the government services, there is demand also from the general population.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/hhs-clarifies-us-has-about-1percent-of-face-masks-needed-for-full-blown-pandemic.html
Any way you look at it, at the very least $3B go to health services preparedness,and at least 1B masks to order, 500M for the national strategic stockpile (obviously this is for stocking) and I would say another 500M masks for health and other public services (imo that is very conservative) and that is without taking into account the other protective equipment that APT makes.
Perhaps you should read articles that provide more detail than that. Most of it goes to hospitals by different routes. Actually 300M for vaccines, diagnostics and drugs, though this is current ones. Big part of the 3.2B the CDC gets will also go to hospitals but I do expect a decent chunk of it to go to new vaccine development. Another part os dedicated to the Strategic Stockpile and I've posted about that recently. It's from a guy on reddit who apparently researches this a lot.
Here is a better breakdown of where the money goes
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485932-lawmakers-clinch-deal-for-776-billion-to-combat-coronavirus%3famp
Gov throwing $7.8B at the coronavirus, most of it for health services, some to vaccines too (300M or so) but mostly CDC, hospitals, the Strategic National Stockpile (remember that? APT is eligible:)) etc
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485932-lawmakers-clinch-deal-for-776-billion-to-combat-coronavirus%3famp
And all made in the US
LOL
Buy the manufacturers, not the masks!
With about 15-20% of the cases developing serious symptoms and with the current ongoing epidemic, there is a risk that if enough healthcare professionals get infected the hospitals will no longer be able to accomodate all the people in the 15-20% that may need medical help. This could lead to unnecessary loss of life and unnecessary panic in general.
Though South Korea has started to recommend masks for the general population, keep in mind that in the region many people wear masks regularly during the flu season and because of the pollution. Therefore, they probably had higher stocks relative to other countries as well as the capacity to ramp quickly.
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200304006700315
In other countries, including the US, this is not the case. Mask stocks are very low and governments are rushing to source masks (especially N95 respirators which are the recommended for the health professionals during this outbreak) from the manufacturers in the past 2 weeks or so. Just for the health services alone, US may need 100s of millions of masks just for the next 3 months. In addition, the Strategic Reserves solicitation which I posted earlier, requires that masks produced for that purpose are manufactured in the US.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fc2gdk/us_gov_just_published_a_solicitation_notice_for/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
For the general population, even regular (not even surgical) masks are going to be enough to offer some protection relative to the general risk, especially if combined with goggles and changed often (at the very minimum 1-2 per day for the general population, healthcare professionals could use up to 20-30 per shift).
Some people are scalping surgical and N95 masks. Don't be those people! As soon as the hospitals are stocked you can then "upgrade" to N95 or surgical. IMHO there is plenty of money to be made still by buying the right manufacturer. Obviously 3M and Honeywell will sell a lot but this will be only a small fraction of their revenue (unless the rest of their revenue collapses, in which case the pps will drop anyway).
Also for the US, foreign suppliers on the CDC list are excluded for contracts like the above, as well as some domestic companies that manufacture the masks outside the US (for example $LAKE manufactures N95s in the Asia Pacific region).
Also IMHO, until the end of 2020 healthcare and other emergency services could need more than 1 billion masks. (About 16 million people work in the healthcare sector in the US and there are others like, firefighters, police, military etc that either needs them immediately or are planning to stock).
GLTA!
(And consider buying $APT, Alpha Pro Tech :) )
Another reason why I prefer companies that manufacture in the US. The other countries also need them and may block exports of protective gear that is manufactured inside their territory.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fdb37b/turkey_restricts_exports_of_medical_protective/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
South Korea has started recommending masks for the general population, despite WHO advice. IMO it is likely to happen in other countries and we already know the US government has started to fund masks production with multiple contracts
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200304006700315
US gov just published a Solicitation Notice for 500M N95 respirators and other masks for the Strategic National Stockpile. Multiple contracts expected. 18 months long. MUST be produced in the US.
https://beta.sam.gov/opp/d58f262ced1b46218f8d13aa4717a7ea/view#general
"ASPR/DSNS intends to issue a solicitation to obtain Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) via firm-fixed price contracts. A split award resulting in multiple contracts is anticipated. The solicitation is expected to be posted on or about March 11, 2020 this is a target date which may move or change. Once the solicitation is released, all responsible sources may submit a proposal which shall be considered by the agency. Sources must have a valid DUNS Number or have the ability to obtain one, and also must be registered in beta.sam.gov. The anticipated requirement is for up to 500 million NIOSH approved (and/or FDA cleared) N95 respirators or other surgical masks/facemasks to be delivered over the course of 18 months. A delay in commencement of deliveries may occur; the Government’s requirement is for domestically produced and/or Buy American Act & Trade Agreements Act compliant product."
APT N95 is NIOSH approved and produced in the US with materials sourced in the US. Go $APT :)
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fc2gdk/us_gov_just_published_a_solicitation_notice_for/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Except people will buy anyway, and even hospitals/health/emergency services alone will need 10s of millions every month.
I agree that this is not a temporary spike in demand. Even past the epidemic peak, people will still be careful until it disappears completely. It may even increase the pre-ncov baseline permanently especially every flu season.
It is more important that people who are infected wear them than healthy people because the virus can still infect you through the eyes while it is usually spread by droplets from mouth and nose (talking, sneezing, coughing).
Therefore it is far more useful to prevent spreading than protection from infection. However, people buy them anyway even if they don't provide great protection if not combined with goggles. This is true for N95 masks that APT sells, if you combine them with goggles or even glasses they offer significant protection but by no means absolute.
Regular surgical masks don't even protect from the smaller droplets but they are still very useful in preventing spread by infected people. In any case people buy them and create shortages, and that is why supporting mask production is in the government's plans.
I think there is a good chance we will see another APT bull run on Monday
The virus is spreading in the US with at least 3 cases of community infection (source: multiple news sites). This will increase demand for N95 further.
According to their most recent year end financial results (source apt website) their overall gross margin is about 35%. They have also reported in their recent earnings release (FEB 26) the N95 masks have significantly higher margin than that. In addition, there is short supply which almost certainly will have a further positive impact on the margins (retailers are responsible for most of the increase in prices, however this will still have some effect on company gross margin). Therefore APT is expected to maintain increased sales while also improving its profit margin.
One issue is they expect to reach full capacity in May which obviously I would prefer if it was earlier. But the virus has only just started in the US and if more cases are found over the weekend and the following days then almost certainly demand will remain high even after the peak. Company said that demand may remain high for the whole of 2020 which, if we start to see more cases in the US, makes sense to me.
They only have about 14M shares and they have a regular share buyback program. They were already profitable, no debt, debt on book is basically a 3M credit facility which they haven't actually used but they have to report (check earnings release).
Apple CEO recently reported that their factories are starting to re-open, but that says nothing about how the capacity is recovering or when will all of the factories open and work at full capacity. Also, CV cases are clearly dropping in China as a result of the containment efforts. However, if they abruptly stop those containment measures, then they risk losing control of the virus again.
This FT from today titled "China factory index hits record low on coronavirus" (paywalled but I'm sure you can find it elsewhere) explains the problem well:
"While the NBS announced that medium-to-large sized enterprises had a “work resumption rate” of 78.9 per cent, banking group ANZ said it they were probably operating well below this in terms of capacity utilisation. Based on migration data, ANZ said the Chinese economy was operating at 20 per cent of capacity, with about 50 per cent of workers back at their posts as of this weekend."
Therefore, I think that the recent optimism that things in China will normalise soon is a bit misguided and premature. Just my personal opinion.
South Korea is also very important, especially in the technology sector, and they are in high growth epidemic phase.
So there is a chance we will see another drop in the general market on Monday but some recovery of the "coronavirus stocks".
What do you think?
AMD SVP M. Papermaster says they see 40-50%
market share in the recent CPU orders: