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Zip, I don't consider algae harvesting "synthetic". It's just a different way of acquiring it. That is very different from what Meowza was asking.
North, that's why I didn't answer the question. It doesn't exist. If it did, AMRN would be done
for sure. A generic that can make a synthetic API for less than the $400M that AMRN has is inventory would result in the end of AMRN. What are they going to do? Sell the inventory for $300M?
North, what synthesizable API are you talking about? How about we start there?
We already know AMRN's cost of API is cheaper than generics today. They have the best suppliers and cost locked up. With larger volumes come lower costs. The threat is that AMRN has built way too much inventory so they can maintain that advantage. It's not sustainable to continue that and no doubt they can blow that advantage quickly. It's the biggest problem facing the US market from an operational viewpoint.
Meowza, first and foremost there is a greater than 75% gross margin built into V presently. It's simple. A BP buys AMRN and eliminates all of the present costs. You put the cost lower than generics can afford to sell. You advertise the hell out of it, even in the US market. A competent BP can expand the present market at a minimum 5 times, making a ton of money while squeezing out generics. A BP already have a built-in cost advantage on overhead and marketing while having a better reach with it's sales force. They can get V tier 2 on insurance plans. Lastly, they can develop the combo pill in less than a year and get it approved much faster than AMRN due to their political power inside and outside the FDA. They also have the power to enforce the RI patents much more effectively than AMRN could ever dream of. It's not that hard. If it was, BP's wouldn't exist as they would have no advantage in the markets. That's what Denner see's. It's not like they lost the patents after he bought. He know's how to fix this. The difference is management is part of the "costs" to be eliminated. Management likes that part of the equation. Denner or a BP will eliminate them.
Raf, I responded to her this morning, before I saw this post. As I look around on Twitter and the subject of long covid, I am disappointed that so many doctors think OTC's offer the same benefit as V. Management has utterly failed, won't recognize the failure and will destroy the company without outside intervention by the likes of Denner with a sale of the company as our only hope. They don't have the muscle to effect change and never will.
Jas, one has to assume that AMRN blew and got nothing. If it's confidential, how can they use it against other insurers? Of course since it's confidential, they can tell us it was good for the company. Irrelevant if it's not as keeping Denner at bay is more important than everything else. Like a bunch of other things, such as all the approvals that were to happen before year end, they hope you will forget about this.
Newman, I thought I saw in a recent filing that there was an agreement that happened in September, but the parties delayed the announcement a number of times with the last delay being until today. Anyone?
Ns, you can believe AMRN when they say the settlement will have a positive effect on the insurance industry. I am of the mindset..."SHOW ME"! Considering today's action, plenty of others are looking at it the same way. At this point, Denner should be making a move in the next couple of months positioning for an entire new slate of board members at the next annual meeting.
So the question I have is why settle in September, then hold announcing it until January when it's a confidential settlement anyway? Bottom line is it can't be that good. Does anyone have the ability to get a prescription thru HealthNet? I guess the only way we get answers is to do the work ourselves! Usual bs from these guys. Sorry, but it's Denner or doom.
Ns, the reason I say that is because at least on the surface, it seems that a lot of insurance companies are dropping V from coverage. AMRN must address this and that starts on January 3rd. Coincidentally they held disclosure of the settlement until then. It's reasonable to assume there is some significance with that date. If AMRN was to launch an authorized generic, it would be hard to continue the lawsuit imo. I have little faith that this will move us up significantly for a sustained period. I hope I am wrong.
What are the odds the settlement on January 3rd will be an agreement for HealthNet to buy generic Vascepa from AMRN along with an announcement of the launch of an authorized generic? If AMRN settles for nothing....Denner?...Denner?
I don't believe this has been posted yet.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565146-amarins-german-troubles-spillover-other-markets?source=copy_to_clipboard
Then you can get Vascepa...we just don't have to pay for it. If you want to "try" those other drugs get back to us. Don't worry, if you have a heart attack or stroke, we have you covered!
raf, first they won't admit they are infringing. They are just covering a generic product. They don't get into what it's for, that's a doctors decision. The BCBS logic doesn't have to prevail forever, just long enough to get AMRN to offer a generic. AMRN would most likely eventually prevail, but can they afford to wait that long? That's what it's going to come down to imo.
Ok raf. I am not concerned about infringement. What's the worst-case scenario? Healthnet settled. It isn't a financially devastating settlement or Healthnet wouldn't have made one. We think the brand is overpriced and want AMRN to provide a generic. You have shown no proof brand is better! I am saving people enrolled in my plans money without sacrificing care. Lower expenses results in lower premiums. We have the federal government and FDA on our side. Bring a lawsuit, the savings going generic will offset any legal costs for now, and maybe forever. We have more money than you do.
zip, the settlement must address the differences between the indications in a way the benefits AMRN or they are done in the US when talking brand name product. If the settlement doesn't address infringement, a big selloff is coming. Hopefully the recent uptick in volume is based on knowledge and not speculation of the contents of settlement.
lb, it looks like it was a chance to sell. I expected no less. There are only 3 positive things that could matter at this point. Solving the inventory problem, Denner taking concrete action to get representation on the board or a BO. All this other stuff about approvals or science is irrelevant and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. With pressure from year-end tax selling and a daunting looking 2023 in the US from an insurance aspect, this is dead money.
cbb, what has AMRN management done right? Oh yeah, form 4's!
lizzy, I was here before BB ever bought a single share. They bought at around $1.50/share their first buy. They did at one time make another investment of about $30M that was preferred shares that paid interest. They paid a price of $.15/share, but those shares converted to common at 10:1 making the price $1.50/share for common. The BB were selling some of their 70M+ shares at $26+ when RI was approved at the ADCOM and numerous times before and after, so I agree they got out their costs and a nice profit out long ago.
zip, at this point have you considered that those 2 appointments were with Denner's approval? Every day that goes by gives me more confidence in my opinion that's the case. After that scathing letter, I am having a hard time believing that AMRN responds with the middle finger and Denner then just drags his feet. The 13f's give me hope that Denner has associates moving in to help the cause and get it fixed.
Mrmainstreet, they were down to a little over 5M shares at the end of the quarter. Probably out totally by now. At one point they had over 70M shares. They made a profit long ago. Obviously they found better investments.
All my other biotechs are up double digits today. Then there's AMRN.
rosemount, I would add to my position if Denner came out and stated those were his appointees as I could be wrong in my view. Just can't do it with the current clown show calling the shots.
My father lived in Ormond by the Sea. Driving down to the Cape to watch a shuttle launch was a memorable experience. Hope to get down there soon to see SpaceX launch.
rosemount, did you ever consider those 2 board members are Denner's picks?
North, agree about promoting, but they could have done a news release when the study was published. They only have one drug. It's an 11 on a scale of 1-10. It shouldn't be this hard. If it's not the drug, it must be management.
shadolane, one would think the top seller of pharmacological EPA would have been all over it. Nope! How many ways can they suck at promoting their one amazing drug? I guess we may never know.
Irishman, everything you say is true, but how does that differ us from the generic?...because last time I checked, generics were costing us more money than haters like Nissen.
raf, you know I am a big supporter of EPA, V and AMRN minus the current management. I take 4 gms of V a day paying out of pocket and have a significant investment in the company. The results of RESPECT were impressive, but it makes me wonder if this helps us. You had a lot less EPA have a significant result. Does this bolster an inferior EPA product, gV, as an acceptable alternative to V? Without any scientific evidence touting V superiority over gV, this may help out the acceptance of EPA, but at the same time ammunition to the generics that their products work and the difference we purport isn't really that significant. Just a different perspective on what this trial really may mean for AMRN.
I have stated before that I believe these board picks are by Denner or with his input. A view shared by almost nobody else. If I am wrong, and I don't believe I am, one would think by the end of this week Denner will make his move. The quaterly report is out and the AHA is over. The holidays are coming. What else would he be waiting for?
Anybody buying as a swing trade thru Monday? I have to say, I am not sure anything positive over the weekend will move this up significantly. Might try to swing 10k shares. Had a big positive day on other holdings, so I have to ask myself what's the upside?
zip, that's the conundrum. With a four year supply, they could easily cut prices to undercut the generics to the point the generics wouldn't be profitable. The question is would they be profitable long-term? Also, if they do that, does it affect prices in the EU, especially since negotiations on pricing are still on going? I said long ago they should make a deal with a BP for a territory. Say all of South America. The BP buys $200M or whatever amount of API upfront along with the royalty with the stipulation that it must be used in the designated territory. Helps immensely with the inventory problem and gives them cash. This is the kind of the out of the box thinking that is lacking from AMRN management.
ziploc, I don't believe the problem is money. The problem is inventory. What do they do with a 4 year supply? I am sure they have done the math. They need EU sales to eat away at the excessive inventory. If they could switch tomorrow to the new formulation, they would eat hundreds of millions in spoiled inventory from the old one. They know this, thus the mantra it will take 3 years before it's ready. The math says a slow development is the best option. Let the shareholders know you are working on it and it's hard without telling them you made the mess in the first place.
Kiwi, I agree...they should have eliminated the US sales force once they lost at the SC. Of course, before that they should have applied for approval in the EU at the same time as the US. They would be well established by now and our cash and sales would be much higher. Just 2 of many mistakes made by management. Somehow we are to believe they won't make any more.
Damn straight I am. If there is a proxy fight, I am with him. There is no downside with that position. Only better transparency.
Rosemount, maybe Zuck can talk to AMRN since they don't listen to us.
Kiwi, I am not in META, but put it on my watch list. Management reminds me of AMRN. Revenues were not that bad, but management won't adjust headcount and expenses to smaller margins and lower revenue. Hence they got crushed.
META getting crushed. AMRN better have something positive to say.
raf, further down on that feed.
mRNA vaccine produces Spike protein in cytoplasm by mutating genetic code causing damage to endothelial cells of heart & blood vessels,clots in legs,lungs, heart( myocarditis),brain( stroke)paralysis, azoospermia ,infertility, dementia , Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease.
— Dr Mohammad I Adil MBBS. FRCS UK,FRCSI (@DrMohammadIAdi1) October 25, 2022
rosemount, I certainly hope they have something good to say, they need it. I am saying from a personally perspective, I have been doing well with all my other positions as this has done absolutely nothing, so no reason to move money in here yet. I would rather buy at a higher price knowing we will climb than buy now and get a haircut since I expect sales and inventory to be negatives.