Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
76,321
Bob, maybe Denner doesn't need to add more shares. If Denner is getting traction with management...given the macro environment he may figure it's best to just hold his present position.
sstyles, I also am not sure Denner needs to or is going to try to get a seat at the board. I am sure we will find out in the coming months. It will depend on the relationship between KM and Denner. For all we know, Denner could have had influence on the board already. Per Wold-Olson could have been with Denner's blessing...or not. Ekman's selling of shares held by his investment vehicle should be a sign his days are numbered. If KM is smart, he will not fight Denner, but embrace his input.
cbb, I am sure Denner looks at it like we do. AMRN is set up for a BO and that was done by AMRN management. Even though they talk about GIA, they don't run the business like that is the long-term plan. So even though Denner doesn't look to invest based on his getting a company sold, he has to know that is the plan for everyone involved. The big difference is Denner can get them focused to do what they need to do to get it done faster than they would do on their own.
Pdude, great job. Amazing what shareholders of AMRN do for the company and people's health. I am sure there are 300 people south of the border that could learn a lot from you.
Jas, I wrote this earlier on Stock Twits replying to another post:
the resolution should be all options and grants for management are tied to the share price. None are given until the stock is over $10. If they quit, who cares. Any clown can do just as poorly. My guess is the price would be over $10 in less than a year. If you can't hit them in the wallet, then the price won't go anywhere. I am management...let me think about this...7500 free shares at $3 or 3000 free shares at $7.50? That's their thinking.
lizzy, hopefully that was Denner buying towards the end of the day.
raf, this is why we need Denner to be very proactive. Management and our goals do not align anymore. Back before Du, they did as everyone was expecting a buyout. That has now changed. The majority of us shareholders would accept something less than we would have in December 2019. For some $15, others $20 and so on, but we want it soon. Management has a plan that will take years to execute. They may not even get us to what they expect, but what they do get is 10's or even 100's of thousands of shares while time goes by. No skin off their back if after 3 or 4 years their plans don't work out or are marginal at best. They are being paid to wait. They literally can't lose unless the company goes bankrupt because even with a stagnant share price they all gained hundreds of thousands of shares. Give me half the free shares these guys get and I will gladly wait 3, 4 even 5 years, but don't think for second that they have your best interests or patients for that matter in mind. No one can convince me that sales in Germany would only have been $700k if a BP was involved. Seriously if it wasn't for Denner, I would have just sold based on this last earnings release which was just like every other release going back years. The only difference is KM speaks better than JT. As far as bold action, there is none.
zip, my only point with what you wrote is if AMRN is doing the selling. That means we are here 3 years from now when they launch if they hold to that timeline. How long before we really know if they can successfully sell it? Another 2 years on top of that?...shoot me now if that's the case.
On the other side, no way Denner waits 3 years and if he sells, I will be unloading the bulk of my shares.
ramfan, the moment the RI trial was known to management to be successful, they should have been pushing the development of the combo pill. They raised hundreds of millions in 2019 because they knew they could lose the patent case. We would have it now. Another failure by management.
kiwi, I agree that it's a waste developing a combo pill if the plan is for AMRN to use the pill to boast sales. Not a waste if the plan is to sell to Pfizer who would know how to blow that up!
gg, think about that for second. So they were working on the combo pill in 2011. Billions in revenue later and they have not done squat with development. I can't blame KM for that, but it shows how long that has been out there. Considering how fast Pfizer moved on a covid vaccine, how many weeks do you think it would take them to develop that combo pill?
sstyles, to be honest, I don't expect AMRN management to be accommodative to Denner. He is a threat to their long-term plans. I hope I am wrong. If they are, he will have one or two board seats this year. All I know is AMRN management and Denner both have histories for all to see. I don't have to tell you who I will be backing.
kiwi, I am certain they could increase supply of V dramatically if needed. I recall JT stating that they had minimums they were required to buy per contracts with suppliers. I also remember JT saying they could supply for over $1B in sales and were working to increase it to get to $5B. That was like 2 years ago. Supply is where it's at because of contracts and can be easly increased to meet demand. Our sales suck and for people that may be worried about running out of inventory...I would say please God, can we have a good problem for once!
BAM, it is simple. The market was factoring in a potential sale of the company in a short timeframe before KM. KM taking over changed that and unless Denner can get people on the board, that's not happening anytime soon. Obvious to me these guys are not selling for chump change. They believe they can successfully GIA and if they fight Denner, it's not happening for 2 - 3 years before we even know if their plan worked.
Facts or not, that's reality!
mrmain, I believe the answer is no. Most of the analysts that asked questions were probably junior analysts. They would give their name stating they were asking questions on behalf of someone else. Another sign we are irrelevant at this time.
Pdude, here is my take. The inventory increase is really due to AMRN has contracts with suppliers...which has minimum quantities required to purchase written into them. I am not concerned about inventory due to the almost 80% margin they have relative to sales. The key to the future in the next 2 years is really the US and Denner. The EU will have no meaningful contribution before 2024. Throw in the combo pill sounds like a 3 year project at best and we are looking at a slow grind upward minus any action caused by Denner.
In the US they need to lock in other customers like they did CVS. At almost 80% margin, they could easily lower price to lock in market share while also pointing out the legal aspects to customers who infringe. I get the part about lowering price here while negotiating in the EU, but you can't sacrifice the US for the EU...the cost benefit is to large. The fact that AMRN has about $750M in net assets vs a market cap of $1.3B shows lack of confidence in AMRN's strategy in the short term.
Long term if they execute the price will climb. Minus action by Denner, this stock won't see double digits this year. We are presently undervalued and hopefully Denner will put some urgency in everything AMRN does.
ILT, imo the generics actions are predictable. You are thinking like a private business owner. Generics are not private companies and those who run them may not be there in 5 years. There is a reason why Elon Musk doesn't want to bring SpaceX public at this time.
Even AMRN's strategy may not align with ours. The GIA so far is proof of that. Rule 60? Why didn't they bring that suit themselves in 2020? Current management has not proven anything to me yet.
raf, you are correct when specific to Hikma, but they have all claimed that and probable will continue to say that as all generics could quadruple their supply tomorrow and still will say they have supply problems. I am looking at the total market and overall their supply is steadily growing. A number of people on here commented previously that supply for the generics should be capped around 20k scripts a week until towards the end of 2022. Well, they are at 28k and growing. Ok, new scripts are up...maybe due to CVS, but does that really matter? Unless they lock up more customers, generics will just shift who they sell to. The bottom line...and that's all that really matters, is they are slowly bleeding out. Is there a strategy to reverse that? I am waiting!
Well the generics can say they are having problems expanding supply, but the numbers don't lie.
Rosemount, as far as AMRN...superior product, biggest margins and largest supply equals power right now. They need to use it before the US market is gone. That means locking in as many customers as possible. To cut margin to maintain or grow sales is the logical option. In any other industry, this would have happened already. Pharma is different...when you have a patent.
On BCRX, I sold some this morning. I expect it to trade sideways for the first quarter. As we get into the 2nd quarter, I expect the price to rise as institutions should start pushing the price due to 9930 possibly reading out year end or early 2023. A successful readout makes it much more valuable. Institutions went from 59% to over 70% ownership from q3 to q4. That will increase, and as the available float decreases, the price should move up significantly looking towards year end.
Pdude, isn't that what I said?
"Without more deals like CVS Amarin sales will collapse within a year. The HealthNet case won’t be resolved for several years so with no enforceable patents Amarin is under major pressure to maintain sales at years end."
Invest, generics will only try to increase supply if they can sell all their product for a profit. If AMRN locks up the bulk of the customers with a cheaper price while increasing volumes, that leaves probably weaker customers(smaller pharmacies) with an inferior product. They will want further price decreases. At what point would generics decide to not expand investment in an inferior product that some consumers see as inferior and will reject getting their script when they go pick it up? How much extra cost goes into hundreds or thousands of customers doing that? If the generics can get 20k scripts a week, but can only sell 15k, what do they do? AMRN has the best product, best margins and largest supply. Time they start flexing that power and stop generics now before it's too late. By the time the legal aspects play out, the US market will be gone.
Ns, a settlement is smart in many respects. It would require an adjustment to strategy which may have already happened. Again, I look to CVS and believe they made some kind of deal. Now that may or may not be the case, but let's assume they lowered their margin to get exclusivity. Is that good? Personally I believe it's a no brainer and can't understand why it's taking so long to put that strategy to work with all US suppliers. You also have to factor in supply and the future. Generics are growing their supply faster than I or anyone else's predictions I have seen posted here. They have been able to sell it all and therefore are constantly trying to get more supply. If AMRN cut V's price and did exclusivity deals in conjunction, I can see Generics having problems selling theirs. This would stop Generics from trying to grow their supply. It's the same principle AMRN uses on supply, locking in their suppliers to only supply them. IMO, this should be their strategy now, not only locking in continuous revenue, but actually being able to grow the market. They have the superior product and need to use that to their advantage.
If you believe a combo pill is coming, this strategy actually helps faster adoption when that time comes as AMRN would have dominance in the market to force the switch because they have the supply controlled.
The alternative is having Generics grow supply and insurance companies selling all of that. Eventually generics will have enough supply to force AMRN to match price anyway. Why wait and lose market share you may never get back? Anyone invested here because they think we win in court in 5 years is nuts.
Ns, something got CVS to change without suing them. I believe that's going to be the strategy going forward. One strategy gets fast results, one won't.
Ns, ok, two responses in a row directed at you is sheer coincidence. I don't necessarily agree that AMRN will have to defend them at some point. That may come to be, but I can see all parties wanting to avoid that. AMRN can't afford to lose that patent protection and no defendants are going to be able to afford the cost of a loss. Treble damages is too big a risk. If AMRN does lower the price, are generics going to match price, lowering margins then risk a big payout years from now because they infringed? Generics are already making all they can by skirting the stupid laws of this country. Why rock that boat if you don't have to?
Ns, agree that it's not a settlement. That being said, CVS is now only dispensing branded V. Now they are vague, but point to a cheaper price though AMRN denies that. Maybe HealthNet is seeing the logic in what CVS has done or maybe they make a deal and AMRN gives a little. I do believe that a settlement is the logical conclusion to the case. With around a 75% gross margin on AMRN's part, there is plenty of room to get one done. Would you rather have 65% margin of $1B or 75% of 400M?
rosemount, this is why I believe our only hope is Denner. As I have been saying...the fact that KM is a salesman is not a positive other than a short-term execution to get a BP to relent and make a reasonable offer. My fear is he truly believes that he can get sales into the billions in a couple of years. Stupid plan if that's what it is. His plan, though correct for a BP, will never succeed in AMRN's hand in the long-term. KM said himself that once the price is set in the EU, you can't go back and get yearly price increases. With inflation running hot, AMRN will have any increases in revenue because of increased volume eaten up by decreasing margins due to labor and fixed costs. Throw in years of exclusivity in the EU being used up before meaningful revenue does develop and we are looking at dead money. The opportunity of a sale is the next year. Hopefully Denner gets board seats this year. Everyone should support his candidates if possible. KM thinking AMRN can go it alone, as the article you posted points out, is a failed option. Watch what Denner does. As long as he is holding, we should be fine. I get a wiff of him selling and I am gone.
Invest, anyone invested in biotech has probably seen most of those investments get crushed. The problem with comparing the average biotech to AMRN is the average biotech doesn't have any revenue, but does have debt. AMRN with revenue and $500M in the bank should be fairing much better. As Denner has said, it's significantly undervalued. I just hope Denner accumulates enough shares to effect the board this year. Would suck to have to wait until 2023.
mrmain, without a doubt the fastest way to $10-$15 is a bo. Our only hope for that is Denner. As long as he is adding or holding, so will I. Management may be able to get us there, but that's not gaureentteed and if they do, it could take years. How the hell long do we need to wait? KM has now been CEO over 6 months. Plenty of time to assess what the hell is going on and execute a bold strategy. Something like a partnership in the US with Pfizer to rapidly expand sales outstripping generics ability to grow. I am afraid him being a salesman, that the slow grind to higher sales is where he is focused. I personally don't have faith in that strategy if that's the plan. Getting rid of 300 sales reps was obvious and the reality is they should have never expanded the work force to start with, especially knowing that the generics wouldn't settle and the possibility of losing the patent case. Once they lost the appeal in the Federal Circuit, those job cuts should have been immediate. What's the timeline for the combo pill? Probably years and again, at this point more wasted time. Pipeline?...the way they have dealt with that problem, one they have known about for over 5 years is endemic of everything wrong with AMRN. The guy who invented the air bag died broke. AMRN reminds me of that. Having a great product gaureentees nothing.
So basically the top institutional owners added about 20M shares overall and we went from around $5 to $3.50/share the last quarter. Makes sense. Damn retail. I may not be buying, but am definitely not selling.
Kiwi, you and have been running businesses a long time. We know how it works.
Ns, curious...what do you think AMRN paid for that interview?
rosemount, I do recall you mentioning your investment in BCRX. Presently is my biggest holding. Sold a bunch of AMRN and bought more BCRX a little over a year ago when they both were about $4. Wish I sold it all and put it all there. BCRX is the real deal that should get over $100/share in the next 2 years. Institutional ownership increased from 59% to 70% this past quarter. As it keeps climbing, so will the price. That's where hopefully Denner helps AMRN. The price has to climb before a BO.
Rosemount, the only reason I am still here with the shares I have is because of Denner. He really is our only hope right now. To think somehow AMRN is going to take this to the next level is without foundation. They couldn't have done less if they tried imo. Again, I will not add until I actually see something from management that says they get it. In the meantime, BCRX is going to new high's daily. Now that's a management team with a plan that they are executing very well.
SVB Leerink analyst Roanna Ruiz maintains Amarin Corp with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $11 to $10.
Can't argue with the lower price target. I mean AMRN management is virtually nonexistent. Leerink has a healthcare conference literally going on today. Where is AMRN? Either they don't give a damn about the stock price and couldn't be bothered attending or they were not invited. Either of those scenarios is very concerning. Denner is really our only hope right now. Considering what KM has done so far, I have very low expectations for the earnings call. Hope I am wrong.
Invest, assuming a remand to Du, they will give a reason for reversing the rule 24 denial. They may also give instructions on how to proceed on the rule 60, especially if they evaluate some of marjac's rule 60 claims. As an example, coming out and saying standing was granted due to new evidence uncovered in Curfman/Bhatt paper being new evidence and a hearing is to be conducted.
My understanding on voting is cases heard that morning are discussed that day. Obviously if it's unanimous decision, a rule 36 is issued if there are no issues with the district court ruling and its reasoning. Did we get past that? I believe so. Now if they talked Friday afternoon and didn't rule 36 us, then they could have come to a decision or maybe are undecided and need to do more research. They can go back and forth between the judges with opinions or determinations until each judge comes to their own conclusions. Then they vote. So maybe they already voted and have someone writing an opinion/order...or maybe they are doing research and will decide at some point in the future.
marjac, after that masterful performance, no matter the outcome, I am sure you will have hundreds of people back any action that you initiate that helps the shareholders. I know I am one for sure. Anyone who listened to the oral know it was a combination of fraud on the part of the generics as well as a total failure of adequate representation to protect the shareholders by AMRN and their legal team.
Ilt, without looking into it, I am going to guess the difference is the first date is when the paper came out and the second date is when it was published after being peer reviewed.
Ns. I agree with Kiwi. Mori is an error because the it came to the wrong conclusion due to a misunderstanding of statistics. So in essence, Mori was submitted to the record with the wrong conclusion that was used to invalidate the patents. How is that not an error?