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Hi Drilla,
Thank you for all your posts and a great 2017 to you too!
I also decided to sell my shares as I cannot hold them. The CREST depository adopted by my UK broker does not allow for brasilian shares.
I had been in apparent worst situation with British stocks where they delisted completly. But I can hold unlisted british stocks with my stockbroker which I hold and sold after few years through a channel set up by the company. Although annoying, I did sold for a fair value after I bought them really cheap. Not this time. You win some, you lose some
I will be completly out of gas and oil sector after my Petriorio holdings are sold, as I am bearish on them for the medium/long term. Without being exaustive/boring, global debt and demographics are my main concerns.
Bye!
I am not sure of the purpose of this post. Sorry!
Nice :)
Hopefully this means that the dilution that will occur due to debentures may be potentially lower than expected?
On a more side note, that is what is wrong with the financial markets. Shares does not go up because they are undervalued, it goes up either due to financial engineering or due to momentum investing. But it is what it is.. if you are in this game you need to accept the rules.
Keeping my shares of course. I don't give away free stuff.
Hi Biff.
You need to make your own mind, the information is out there plus the typical forecast of the oil price which you have 50% of get it right.
I personally won't top up as I have a limit to invest on an individual stock, and also I am bearish on the oil price in the medium term. Too many producers (Iran now in the game) for a consumption which is getting lesser (China is changing). Beside, the only economic growth that the world can have Is the charade of QE, as it is well known that there is no middle class explosion in china, world population getting old and historical debt levels everywhere. Happy to hear your bullish comments :)
I won't sell either as I may be wrong and I sell at fair price, not cheap.
Hi Tom,
Few days ago I could see 0.45 CAD for bid and 0.80 for asking price. The spread is high due to low volume, which makes the price extremely irregular. I cannot expect in any way the price reflecting the company's value on such conditions.
Also, I could not trade during a week due to the name change (broker related issue) so I wonder if other people had not that issue.
As a side note and being only my opinion (I am still a PetroRio shareholder), I do like the company's fundamental but I am a bit concerned about the oil price. Will Iran now flood the market with oil? China is deleveraging, so who is going to be the next saviour and engage in massive stimulus? Only Europe is left and as it is now, I cannot see a pickup on oil consumption in the short term. But who knows right? After all, there are unexpected events occurring all the time.
Cya!
Fair, honest and straighforward comments. thanks
We "just" need demand :)
Hi Tom,
I do really feel your pain. My comment here is not answering your question as I have been disconnected from this stock for some few months. I still hold the shares by the way, so I am not of those people who post messages on the company without owning a single share. I question those people who spend so much time on something which he has not and does not plan to have a relation with! that's against common sense and believe me, no ones cares more about your money beside yourself. There are no white Angels. For many people, the pleasure of watching people going downhill is more gratifying than the opposite.
My assumptions from reading your post may be wrong, so do forgive me If I got it wrong. But I want to challenge you to something more important than the fundamental analysis of a single stock. Am I assuming correctly you were too overweight on this single stock? What rules or strategy do you apply on your investment? These are key questions as I often see to many good people putting too much allocation on a single stock with great valid reasons behind it. I know a guy who did great in such approach but I know many more who had their fingers heavily burned. From seeing other people and from myself I realize that the odds of such approach are as similar as black jack, there are so many unpredictable events that the luck component is greater than what we want to admit. Now, having 20 or 30 of investments and doing well can be hardly seen as a fluke. Beside, a loss is easily absorbed unless you were to focused on a market/sector that is crashing.
Personally I am holding the stock. I have a small proportion of my portfolio free for small speculative stocks, but for sure their performance has been underwhelming. If you get excited you are likely to lose money for some reason. My boring investments are the one making money... I guess life is supposed to be boring :\
Tesco to axe up to 10,000 positions
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/15/tesco-job-cuts-store-closures-dave-lewis-reports
Tesco sales return to growth for first time in a year, survey suggests
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31352427
Thai billionaire keen on Tesco Lotus!!!!
!!!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/11401778/Thai-billionaire-Dhanin-Chearavanont-keen-on-Tesco-Lotus-deal.html
Hi Eddy.
Don't load everything you have in one stock, that's a no no :)
I am concerned about the macro economics. If markets crashes, then good and bad stock would go down indiscriminately, so be sure to have some cash on the side :)
Regarding Tesco, the UK business is struggling due to discounters plus all the bad press of Tesco squashing the suppliers to extract money from them (like mafia), but I believe Dave Lewis is on top of this. It was great to know that in the "Third Quarter Interim Management Statement" there was no talk about issuing stock.
Tesco could offload the asian business (such as Tesco Lotus in Thailand) and Dunn Humby at a good price, and refocus on the UK business. Let's see what happens during this year as this sort of things does not happen overnight.
Disclaimer: I have 4% of my portfolio on Tesco.
Tesco is starting to pick up from the bottom. I am holding my shares as the book value may not reflect properly the asian business plus all the land it owns in UK. I don't believe it will be back to the old good days, but now the shares looks too battered
Wouldn't that be a tall order?
People laugh at me when I say that Russian stocks are dirt cheap and worthwhile to have some allocation to a portfolio. Sure, there is risk, corruption, Putin, etc But good news is the antitheses of great value, so the great value needs to be looked where news are clearly overhyped on decent companies. And Russia is not an Argentina or a Russia of 1999. Russia has a debt of 11% GDP and has around of $500 billion of foreign reserve currency (in contrast of $7billion and debt of 162% GDP in 1999).
I still remember when friends were telling me that I would be mad to have invested in Japanese companies 4 years ago. They claimed it would be dead money for generations. I acknowledge that they could be right (I am not a fortune teller or have a time machine), but they looked such a great value that I could not resist. So I bought some and in the end it turned ok. In the end the biggest risk would be to have listened to other people without looking myself at the figures.
What am I owning in Russia? Gazprom at P/E of around 3 (give or take) and knowing that Putin is enforcing the companies to pay more dividends. Putin's idea is to force companies to give away more profits to shareholders so that those companies start to be more efficient with the remainder and stop misallocating the current amount of surplus.
This is my 10 cents. The probability of being right is 50%, the same as a fund manager but without charging you a commission :)
Off course never invest the farm. There will be always events that cannot be predicted.
I agree with you.
I will leave my comments to myself to keep this board as clean as possible.
Ha zerohedge... the perma bear deflationist fanatics which would rather see thr wold going to a deflationary collapse. Some of the writers are incognito as they were probably kicked out from wall street due to dodgy behaviour, so better to keep it hidden from the readers.
Some good articles, others utterly crap which mislead some people to loses on gold and shorts(or being out of the market all these years)
Since the reverse split (10:1), which already do 3 months, the oil price has been declining
This forum is great. We have great fundamental analysis from drilla and now some technical analysis from tom. What about macro?
My 10 cents for what is worth. Looking forward for your comments as this is only my basic interpretation.
Hopefully we are not getting into deflation otherwise we will be screwed for the short/medium term (as an investor point of view). The lack of action from ECB plus the end line of the current QE on US does not look good. China has been responsible for around a quarter of all money injection in the world in the last few years , and god knows what China is up at the moment. At the current debt levels across the globe plus european banks still in a horrible shape, I cannot see inflation without more money creation. All stocks goes down on deflation (funny enough gold only works well on deflation and not inflation as most people like to believe). resources stocks would be hammered :( but would be a good entry point
That does not sound right. I would like to see Tom's post please
Interesting technical analysis. Thanks for sharing :)
I have been on a stock that plunged 80 percent without any strong reason and now is 400% up than the original price (GWP listed on aim market). As long as the fundamentals are strong, the price variations are just noise.
Good news I guess. If the stock have gone up even with such short selling then the stock can go further up due to short squeeze. Although I would rather it would have gone up due to long term investors :)
Yes, I also noticed a large amount of cash missing from my Sipp account!!!!
Thanks Drilla for the good post.
Share buybacks by companies is only worthwhile when the company is cash rich, have consistent and strong cash flow and is undervalued. This is not a common approach for truly undervalued and good (underlin good) companies as it is indicative of a good management that is thinking on the long term. AIG is one of the good examples.
What you see in the real world is that companies do share repurchases when there is no other way to pump the stock up, Several management have their bonus indexed on the stock performance, so it is in their best and selfish interest to pump it up. So they end up doing share purchases when the stock is overvalued (as there is no buyer left and the stock cannot go higher in normal market conditions) which end ups a pretty poor deal for the existing shareholders as the company is buying expensive shares.
HRT and share buyback? That would be silly. The argument of having a lot of cash works until it runs out with their on-going activities.
Northsun0,
You are entirely right.
From my experience in UK, even if you can hold your unlisted shares after a company going private (which by the way,it is really difficult to sell the shares), the majority shareholders could still try to dilute the minority shareholders in some way. For example, they could move a resolution to suspend pre-emption rights. That would allow the company to issue new shares without first offering them to all existing shareholders. They would need 75% of shareholders to approve. But 75% is measured in terms of the number voting not the total number of shares outstanding. So it's not impossible.
Not sure if this applies to Canada or USA.
Owning a tiny share of a small company is an hazardous job, that's why I never allow myself to allocate more than 3% of the portfolio to HRP
. You can be forced to sale.
Two years ago I was invested in a penny stock in the UK aim market and the big players decided to unlist the company. Many stock brokers in UK does not allow unlisted shares so the small investor were forced to sale. On the day it was annouced, millions of stock were dumped (average daily transaction of few thousands shares). The stock was trading at 10p when the company had tangible assets of 50p. Who bought got a bargain while the small investor got burned. Believe me, that company will be relisted in 5-10 years and the big players who bought in will make a fortune.
I was shafted with that company and I have a funny felling I am going to be again with HRT.