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i don't think that the directors lied outright; it just hasn't worked out as they expected it would. It doesn't look as though they have had any traction to speak of to date.
Given additional pressures on the price (e.g dilution) the share price can easily sink into the 1s and settle and the mid 1s
Positive news is only likely to give the share price a temporary bump; it's revenues that matter now. If they can get the revenues right, the stock will shoot off.
what about the big dump a couple moments ago?
Earnings for the quarter came in at $183K, poor by any standards. Loss was just -0.05 a share though, but this was primarily because of a change in warrant liabilities; not because of any real fundamental reason.
In today's conference call, the promises of things that are 'about to happen' continued. I need to go over the CC again as Wei Chung's connection was so poor but from what I gathered, it sounded as though there are a lot of opportunities to be exploit in the marketplace. It also sounded as though other companies are coming to them wanting to make deals instead of the other way around.
It would be a mistake to just discount these apparent opportunities; they appear to have a lot of them and if they hit them all, YOD may actually start making revenue to cover their expenses and make some profit.
Guidance remains at $3 million for the year, suggesting that they will start to make good of these opportunities sooner rather than later. However, to the realist, this will seem like a stretch given the previous 2 quarters of the FY.
How will the share price react tomorrow? There will be those who will buy believing in the opportunities, they will be those who will be disappointed with the $138K revenue, there will be those who prefer to sit it out and wait until the real revenues actually come before they invest.
Whatever happens, it will be an interesting day tomorrow for YOD's share price.
One week away from the quarterly ER. Earnings estimates anyone? Last quarter I think I said 500k and actuals came in at 138k; I'll stick with 500k again for this quarter. This estimate is not based on much at all; I'm making this estimate given that Shane M gave guidance of $3 million for the full year based on the traction they were seeing up until the last CC.
A lot of things can result in an outperformance of this estimate (excellent Xiaomi revenues coming through; decent performance in mobile)
However, based on previous ERs, actual revenues have been dismal; will the poor revenues continue this quarter?
Time shall tell.
YOD has announced that earnings will be reported less than 2 weeks from now; on Aug 14th.
The current share price has dropped to 2.35 after a volatile run over the last couple of weeks. The stock has managed to keep its price above 2 despite a market valuation that is not consistent with it's revenue. How? Key investments by big players and the hope of investors that positive news will be released 'shortly'.
Sadly, to date this has not happened and the share price now sits at where it is today.
While this may be a hard pill to swallow, this price (2.36) may be generous given what could be coming at the ER. The ER could report another dismal set of revenues and could report delays/challenges with the initiatives mentioned on the CC 3 months ago. If this occurs, the share price will likely sink considerably to have a firm place in the mid 1s
Alternatively, if a significant announcement is released (e.g an imminent rollout with a telecoms operator; extremely positive revenues since hte implementation via Xiaomi boxes, an imminent rollout with more huawei phones or other mobile operators), the share price could spike considerably and could even pass 4 in the short term.
General market sentiment is low at the moment. The 2.36 price may reflect this but I suspect that between now and the ER even if the market recovers, the share price could remain depressed.
It's also important not to have your head in the sky. Everyone knows that with news the stock will move. That isn't an epiphany. I've said that in most of my posts. The problem is that there hasn't been any news for over 2 months for this technology growth stock. It's not about being negative. The last quarter's results were far from good for a company that has a diluted market cap of ~80 mil but one thing that was good were the proposed plans and projections.
Without any updates on these plans, people will inevitably sell the stock because of the uncertainty and risk that's involved with the current market valuation. This is how the market works. The billionaire's involvement and Shane's purchasing of shares helped to avoid the stock from sinking into the 1s this quarter.
As is usual on these boards, if anyone brings an alternative view, longs with their heads in the sky are always quick to say that someone is being negative and to leave. It's really funny when I see it all the time.
That said, today has seen an interesting rise with some large purchases. It would be interesting to know who's buying.
Back down to 2.43..not surprising. Whilst other companies are releasing news around the sector (see Alibaba and LionsGate news here), YOD has released nothing in over 2 months. Investors are left wondering what and if anything is happening and the stock reflects this uncertainty.
Unfortunately if no news comes over the next month, expect to see the stock drop below even current levels. If the current quarter's results are released next month without any news, expect the stock to drop well below 2.
On the other hand, there is some chance still that news will be released. A decent news release would take this stock sharply upwards, but in the meantime, investors will continue to sell.
the stock hit a low of 2.45 only today and you think it's impossible for it to test low 2s again? In the absence of news I can assure you, it is indeed possible
The stock is being shorted because there is a good chance in the minds of some investors that the company will fail.
There are several reasons why the company could fail; low revenues, piracy in China, poor execution on cable platform, take your pick. Becoming the Netflix of Asia is a tall order.
Nothing is impossible of course, but it's a tall order.
What this stock needs is some news confirmation on the potential deals that were mentioned in the last conference call on May 1th.
The company is just over a month away from the next earnings release. Without news between now and then, this stock will continue to sink; It may even test the low 2s once again. A significant ramp in earnings for this quarter is not expected and as such, a significant deal is required to maintain the price even at current levels.
Positive SEC filings like the switch to KPMG have helped to prop up the stock in the absence of real news but it seems like the PR department has gone on holiday as even the addition to the Russell Index did not manage to make it to the News Releases page.
The next month could be a tough one for investors but the potential of a share price spike has not diminished. The possibility remains that at any day, significant news can be released that confirms a major deal. Any such news will result in a significant spike in the company's share price.
So..the new 8-K report that was published today (see Sec filings)shows that the current accounting firm has been fired and that KPMG has been hired. What does this mean? It doesn't look as though the old accounting firm has been fired because of any issues with the numbers in the financial statements; it looks as though YOD is tightening up on the controls of their financial reporting.
It'll be interesting to see how the market responds to this; on one hand, it's a good thing that YOD is taking a step in this direction as it means better reporting; KPMG is also a very well know accounting firm.
On the other hand; even though the 8K says that there aren't any real issues with the old reports; you still have to wonder......
The drop to 2.72 isn't surprising. What was surprising was how much the stock went up in such a short space of time after the billionaire investor bought.
The famine of news is slowly sucking the life out of this stock. The longer that there's no news, the more it will drop. Will it get back down to 2.15 before August? Who knows.....unlikely I think but you never know with these small caps. It's clear that someone has been exercising their preferential shares; as to how much has been exercised is anyone's guess. It's never encouraging to know that this is happening as this could mean impending doom for a stock.
On the other hand, It's been almost a month and a half since the last set of 'news' and the CEO of YOD was quoted saying that a 'big' deal could be announced within 2-3 months from May 15th, maybe even sooner. Any day there could be an announcement that causes the stock to spike again. For those who believe this news is coming, now is probably a good time time to load up on shares. It can be argued that there wasn't anything much to justify the share price being just under 4 and it's now back down to reasonable levels. Also, whoever exercised their preferential shares may just be doing it now because they need the cash and they are in the money with YOD if they sell.
Who knows what the future holds for YOD. A $0 stock, a $30 stock; time will tell.
spoke too soon. 2.85!
2.95! there it goes under 3! how much lower will it go?
Click the Russell Microcap section on this link: HERE
But savnut, just because it's included doesn't mean the price will shoot off; it looks like it was included back in 2012 too(see here).
YOD is a very volatile stock; over the past couple of weeks we saw the stock increase sharply without any news; a drop shouldn't surprise.
I'm wondering though if in this case, this drop in price is related to parties converting & exercising preferred shares now that the S3 filed on Feb 6th has become effective
I may be pulling at straws here and speculating but it will all come to light soon enough
@3.17 down just under 6%...and dropping fast...will it hit the 2s again?
3.31 and down over 7 percent..let's see how low it can go..will it hit 2s again soon?
It's anyone's guess when next news will be posted by You on Demand.
Every month since January there has been at least 1 news posting; I'm thinking that this month may follow suite. However, there have also been pretty big lulls ( Nov 15 13th- Jan 30th 14), (Sep 09th 13 - Nov 05th 13)
I'm surprised that the share price has held up so well despite a lack of news. The actions of the billionaire investor&Shane have really helped to encourage others to invest in the stock. Let's see how long the enthusiasm lasts..the price is looking as though it's starting to wane.
that sort of strategy would have definitely worked the past week. It may even work next week but if news is published before the opening or at the end of the trading day, you may miss an opportunity to have some decent gains.
did you actually hear this from somewhere or are you spreading propaganda?
3.8 right now; up over 7%. No news.
Currently at 3.52, up over 7%, no news.
Price is up 11.5% right now at 3.37
Without news...surprising, but we all know it can drop just as quickly.
Unfortunately we don't know when the next set of 'big news' will break. The last conference call made reference to launching with a provincial operator within 2-3 months; Weichung said it may be even earlier. With the Huawei launch, the announcement was made just the Friday before the actual launch. They will probably do something similar here; which means that significant news may not come until around 2 months after the conference call May 15th; which would take us to about July 15th..just over a month from now.
Of course, other news could come out between now and then but we may not hear anything significant over the next couple of days.
The good thing is that the billionaire has shown interest in You on Demand by investing; this may prop up the price until the next big set of news breaks.
I agree, no real news since April (Even though it can be argued that they gave a business update on May 15th). In the last conference call, they mentioned several potential news items that could be announced in the coming months. The longer the delay in announcing, the more the share price will drop. The stock is very volatile and could see a 50% increase like what happened on May 23rd if the correct news item comes out.
For the short-term, Shane has placed a temporary floor on the stock at around ~$2.20 by purchasing @ $2.18 so hopefully it shouldn't sink through that support.
Currently down 4% in premarket
Looks like people are getting scared with the S3 doc that was published yesterday. Let's see how much it drops by today and if it rebounds later on
Short interest is only reported twice a month on the following schedule (see Dissemination Date column)
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortIntPubSch
You can see it here:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/yod/short-interest
you may have another window to avg down this week
i think it's unlikely for it to go back down to $2.20 in the near future given that Shane bought shares at $2.18 but with these sort of stocks you never know.
Price is going through an expected correction today after Friday's run up; the price will likely have large swings in both directions over the next few months with different news releases; the price probably won't stabilize until a solid earnings release comes out
Will the YOD dream run continue today?
Or will there be a sharp pullback in the price?
It appears that the billionaire and Shane have given other investors the confidence to invest in this stock; at least at the ~$2.20 levels.
The question is whether or not this confidence is enough to keep the share price at the current $3.23 level or higher.
I don't know how many people who bought the stock on Friday did sufficient analysis before investing but on a fundamental level, revenue for the last quarter contracted and was very low.
Future plans are good, but if YOD does not come out soon with more positive announcements, the current price level will likely not hold.
these sort of days seldom come for a stock or trader. YOD has been a dream today for those who currently have shares; it looks like the confidence the billionaire gave the stock has encouraged many others that the stock isnt just a pump and dump
these sort of days seldom come for a stock or trader. YOD has been a dream today for those who currently have shares; it looks like the confidence the billionaire gave the stock has encouraged many others that the stock isnt just a pump and dump
it's at $2 because of several reasons including
1. Current revenues are low (actually contracted in the last quarter) in relation to the current valuation
2. There's lots of uncertainty around plan execution and revenue generation (given what happened with the cable side; millions of potential customers, hardly any revenues)
3. There's lot of competition around in the Chinese environment (not just other companies, but pirating)
4. The stock has a lot of convertible shares; with a potential share count of ~ 35 mln; meaning $2 could really translate into a $70 mil valuation; i.e double the current market valuation
5. The share is being shorted
The share price reflects all of those reasons. I'm not surprised its at $2 right now
Could revenues increase exponentially? Sure. Could the share price increase sharply as a result? Sure. But until it happens...its all theory...it's been theory for the past several years.
If the company starts executing, the share price will shoot off; I'm not saying that the price can't get to $15..I'm just saying that $15 by August 2014 seems a bit much.
lol just a few days ago every post you made cried down the stock, now you have a completely different tune.
$15 by Aug/Sept? That's an increase of 680% in 3 months. Seems a bit unrealistic to me but who knows.
i agree with you; something does seem a bit odd with the share price few days..now at 2.02, diluted market cap of roughly 70 mil
the future guidance was good but the revenue was poor; someone big is selling; may be an institutional investor though
They didn't give an exact breakout but the CEO indicated to expect a 50-50 breakdown for the next 3-6 months..I suspect the cable business actually decreased the past quarter by a considerable amount.
It will be interesting to see what the stock does tomorrow as there were several little nuggets that were positive
1. Activation rate on mobile of 70%
2. 47% of users would buy the service from the trials
3. Given the positive feedback, there will likely be a rollout on Huawei's Honor series..which they are targeting 20 million phones for this yr
4. Imminent rollout with a major operator for their service on mobile as well as TV
5. Confidence to give a $3 million target in revenue by the end of the year
On the flip side, I'm sure revenue was below most persons' expectations; the cable business looks dead.
revenue was only 138k for the quarter...will prob be a major selloff tomorrow