Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
A lot of this is simply guessing... but interesting enough to throw out there.
MNK rolled out Seroquel starting in June... so how much product do you issue a Purchase order for??? they really didn't know what take up would be... so my guess is a cautious $100K worth, and assuming cost of goods to be 20% of sales... then that $100K of goods would translate to $500K of sales.
Now notice on the chart below that on the week of July 28th, as MNK reached $500K worth of sales, there was a hiccup in the sales #s... was it possibly that they ran out of product and could not fill orders??? and does that also account for the spike on August 11th???? --- were they filling back-orders then???
So now my guess on that second purchase order was for $400K worth, and assuming cost of goods to be 20% of sales... then that $400 would translate to $2 million in sales.
The following month everything is going very smoothly with sales but notice another glitch on September 15th... did they once again run out of stock when they reached $2.6 million in aggregate sales??? and might that indicate a spike is due next week as they fill back-orders???
Regardless of whether or not you can read into the spikes and glitches... we know for a fact there have been $2.5 million in aggregate sales to date.
Assuming a 20% cost of goods and 80% profit, then those $2.5 million worth of sold goods cost IPCI $500K to produce - further assuming 20% as the PLUS in the Cost PLUS agreement, then IPCI will have earned $100K so far on manufacturing Seroquel. --- This also assuming that 2nd order was received before end of August... other wise $80K of that $100K earned will go into 4th Qtr.
We're on a roll... let's take it a step further... with the assumption that cost of goods is 20% of sales #s and IPCI gets Cost PLUS 20% of costs.
I believe that down the road MNK's Seroquel sales will approximate PAR's Focalin sales of $72 million... YES IT'S FACT... PAR IS SELLING APPROX $6 MILLION A MONTH... $72 MILLION WORTH OF FOCALIN A YEAR... I see no reason MNK can't match PAR's sales a couple of years down the road when Seroquel sales have matured as Focalin's sales have.
Assuming they sell 1/2 of that in 2018 or $3 million a month, $36 million a year... then 20% cost of goods is $7.2 million, and IPCI cost PLUS of 20% equals $1.44 million in manufacturing earnings for 2018.
But wait... there's more... those numbers are for Seroquel alone - Pristiq and Lamictal's markets combined are 1-1/2 times as much as Seroquel... and they are already partnered with the same economics... and no waiting 180 days once they are FDA approved.
My guess... IPCI's $10 Vegas party... end of next year.
Fisherman... you want to drain 1/2 of that glass... go right ahead and post your "realistic" numbers... and would you point out what in my post is not realistic???
tilator... if you hit "Public Reply" all the way to left... rather than "Post New Msg" your reply will indicate who you are responding to and makes a chain.
Try it... you'll like it.
I'm sure you do... I feel the same about your ABSURD 15% to 20% royalty estimates on Seroquel and 50% PLUS on the cost PLUS of manufacturing.
First is RIDICULOUSLY LOW, the other is ABSURDLY HIGH.
Note that 42 cents profit on 30 million OS is $12 million - so apparently they are estimating on IPCI to spend $22 million in 2018 - which is about $10 million??? above their 2017 burn.
I actually think that Lamictal and Pristiq can/will generate at least $15 million in 2018 if approved before end of November and I also think they may receive approval on Ranexa before end of year which should bring in another $10 million in 2018... so I'm calling for close to $1 earnings in 2018... and that doesn't include up front money on Regabatin which I think will be partnered in 2018.
ps. Looks like the fever has broken on IPCI.
Anyone with Fidelety brokerage here that knows or can find out what %age they are offering to lend out IPCI shares???
With 2.9 million shares short it's gatta be pretty high.
An approval on Lamictal or Pristiq now would go a long way.
ps - my Ameritrade think-or-swim says 3rd Qtr earnings report are on October 11, 2017 - they are usually right... but with a change in CFO who knows.
Off Topic: I ask this on this board because there are so many knowledgeable posters here.
On the PDUFA date, does the FDA post the results publically somewhere or does it only notify the company of the results... and if so when would the company legally be required to make that information known???
Thanxs in advance.
The negative catalyst that still remains is the perception that IPCI will need to raise money down here and may do a poisoned PP with warrants.
If IPCI can put out a PR with assurances that dilution is not necessary going forward... that they have acquired a sizeable sum of money either through discounting by 10% to 12% or even 20% future royalty payments on Seroquel or Focalin, or have acquired a $5 to $10 million line of credit from a bank by using future royalty payments as collateral... or signing a partnership with a few millions $ up front payment... and they will be buying back up to 5 million of their own shares... then you'll see IPCI at $3 a share practically overnight, and upwards of $6 a share within a couple of quarters of earnings.
Those 3 million shares will have to cover... if you look at the totality of it... it may seem we longs are at a disadvantage... but that could be turned around with only a single PR.
Anyone that doesn't see the opportunity here is "brain dead".
Sure it hurts... but "suck it up"... let yourself "know what you know"... open your eyes... this is a multi billion dollar company in the making.
Does the FDA put out a PR or posts the results on the Rexista findings or do they notify IPCI and IPCI discloses the results???
If it's left up to IPCI then they could diffuse this by posting the PR after hours where the MoMos who simply read headlines can be made somewhat irrelevant.
Hoping to get fred's MNK Seroquel sales #s today for week ending September 15th.
Looking for ~ $477K for the week... anything above is icing on the cake... although there are sometimes up or down swings in earnings, the last four weeks it seemed to have settled into approx. 18% growth week-to-week.
$477K would be a 15% growth week-to-week.
Just remembered - we probably should make some allowance, on the downside, due to the disruptive weather during that period.
fisherman... Would you like your exact post if it was posted by Impact Trader???
Would you share what you heard, and where you heard it, so we can decide for ourselves if it has any merit?
I like it fred... and all within reason... but I'm guessing $8 to $10 at end of 2018.
Would you please post the September 15th numbers as soon as available tomorrow??? I'm on pins and needles to see if MNK really does have that kind of muscle.
Would also help if you post TRXs for the competitors as a comparison... last time you posted them MNK seemed awesome by comparison.
Nice positive post Doug... I imagine you've refilled your prescription???
Is it Xanax??? Paxil??? Lexapro??? wait... don't tell me it's Seroquel XR??? what brand??? - can you pass one of those "bad boys" to WiMike???
ps - welcome back... I missed you yesterday.
Samsa, I don't believe that posting about Purdue trial events would have caused for a gag order to be placed on you.
Therefore... I have a tendency to believe that you are perhaps lead plaintiff in one of the classic action lawsuits???
Or, a private lawsuit against the board not meeting their fiduciary duties to stockholders by allowing bonuses to be paid even when the drug itself is not being marketed???
Have you joined the blood sucking lawyers Samsa??? birds of a feather???
a gag order would not keep you from disclosing the truth... so what is going on.
I see it totally different - they can walk it down to $0 and not lose a single share if no one is there to buy.
If an institution - or better yet... if IPCI sets themselves up at say $.90 to buy... and takes up all the shares that come down, then the shorts will not be able to get below that... and if it takes say 200K or 1 million shares in trying to break that $.90 then it will be 200K or 1 million more shares they will have to buy back, and thereby raise the ask to who knows what to get it back.
Of course on CRL announcement the MoMos that only read headlines and short anything negative will initially take it down if there isn't large buyer to absorb the short... but it seems to me, there are many here prepping to buy on that drop, so I would not be surprised at all if we end the day in the green.
ps - a partnership announcement within a day with a $5 to %10 million up front payment would break the shorts back.. and they would never return.
IPCI's problem is not so much that it's oversold as it is that it's underbought... and shorts (and many longs) believe IPCI will inevitably have to raise cash and they can be in on the offering.
Hello Fred
Please post September 15th sales #s as soon as you can... I'm anxiously awaiting to add them to spreadsheet.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134711793
I'm hoping for approx. $475K in Sales and approx. 675 TRXs... anything above that would be welcomed news.
Doug... pop a Xanax or something.
Yes I agree we may yet feel further pain... but I think success is inevitable now.
MNK's numbers (actual numbers) on Seroquel sales look "fantastic" and it seems inevitable that 4th quarter will be profitable for IPCI on Focalin XR and Seroquel XR sales alone.
Would hate not to meet you at the Vegas $10 IPCI party... and I would not at all be surprised if it happens before the end of next year.
Here is new Spreadsheet with latest figures (up to Sept. 8)
I've also added (in yellow) my estimates on what we may expect.
The estimates are predicated on 15% growth Weekly for September (last actual figure we have was 19.49% growth for week of Sept. 8th) and a total of 65% monthly for the month of September (actual growth for August was 178%, but I believe monthly % growth will decline going forward... although monthly $ growth for that period will stay about the same).
I look forward to next week's figures... thanxs Fred.
September 8th actual figures added to this spreadsheet are very very encouraging.
Thank you fred.
I will organize and post ASAP
Hello fred... I've presented the data you posted in a comprehensive exel file... take a look.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134674088
However... it was compiled from 3 separate postings of yours.
It presents a nice picture...... but it's incomplete.
Would you post all weekly data on Seroquel XR SALES and TRXs from it's rollout in May/June???
Also all Focalin XR data from December 2016 to March 2017.
I will then update the spreadsheet and we will have a much more complete picture of what is happening.