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Retail psychology has changed. Today retail (this afternoon) is slapping the ask !
Today
Mindset is what retail thinks about direction. Chart Null
Psychology is the timing of retail action. Technical indicators Negative improving
Sentiment is the strength in their buys & sells. Volume Weaker then yesterday
Retail psychology must change.
Mindset is what retail thinks about direction.
Psychology is the timing of retail action.
Sentiment is the strength in their buys & sells.
Hate to do it but Chart update.
I know I'll be accused of bashing and trying to get price lower, so I can buy back in lower. But a chart is a chart. And I don't buy before positive breakout of resistance levels. My next entry is when 2 cents is broken. I buy when positive things happen only. Don't gamble on come backs.
Make of it what you will. This is my 7th chart here. All previous were positive or weak positive. Since yesterday things have changed.
What ALL should be hoping for is a failed descending chart pattern. Meaning .012 to HOLD. You don't want to see increasing volume in any price decline, for that to happen.
Patterns do fail completely (never break) and partially (don't reach target). But the odds on patterns successes is good. That's why I trade them.
Also if it does break down, watch for stalls at support, as a positive. But if it breaks, those small gaps below act as tiny magnets on direction.
All orders closed (OTC 1st & 2nd tier) are reported in the TIME & SALES. But order requests on the OTC level II are between market makers, not retail. I've seen NITE use 10k and close 100's of k daily. The difference is tier 1 closures.
Here's a link about the OTC trading system;
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=122748780&txt2find=Quotation|system
Hope you make large gains also.
Just another opinion
Most penny playing message boarders believes in the story potential. But I believe in the BIG GUY actions with OTC stock plays. Swing trading TA & Charts is relying that all involved with price action will react as seen in history over decades.
Runs run and retraces retrace when big money volumes are involved. Price stalls with little volume. Just a known fact. If one see's increasing volume in a run, history tells us the run should continue. When volume decreases in a run, history tells us runs will slow. When support or resistance lines are broken on increasing volume, continuation is expected. With weak volume, return to those lines are expected.
It doesn't really matter if this action is seen in a good companies stock or a bad companies stock. What is happening is human action and reaction, based on price direction and strength behind that direction. Whether one is a small guy, big guy; believed in potential or fundamentals. There are as many reasons for runs, retraces , and stalls to happen, as there are retail.
TA & charts project historical actions, Fundamentals and beliefs predict future actions. Since statistical projection are more reliable then future predictions. We often see good companies with bad stocks and bad companies with good stock. Because human actions are more reliable then human beliefs.
Bla Bla Bla; My point, you can want what you believe, but you get what actually happens.
The term long & strong is not logical, it's based on prediction. Swing trading in & out with action and reaction creates success, it's based on projection.
If your playing pennies to make money, one better learn the game. Because capital preservation is just as important to success as banking gain. You can always leave and re-enter on continuation. But you can't cause come backs, to come back. No matter what one believes/expects.
Here's why I expect a good future @ CDNL; I'd never hold for it, but will trade it, when it happens.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=122986549
NO My standing stop limit orders closed and I banked gains. That's a win.
Want to see trade action?
http://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/cardinal-resources-inc-CDNL/trades
Ever think traders had a stop limit order @ .013 & .012 ? It's called capital preservation when price falls. Protect some of ones gain. This is how swing traders succeed. They take profits as profits dwindle. Want happened today was stop limit orders closing. I'm out, but watching for re-entry opportunity, before the real play starts. Because all the potential is still present in CDNL. But some gains are now safely in the bank, if panic selling happens and the come back, doesn't come back. If it does, I'll be back also.
old post warning 5/25/16
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=122906470
Someone else also thinks the dividend may have something to do with the gap down.
Me;
A little more thought on the subject, more then the individual happening. Unreasonable price gaps!
I've noticed when your involved with a company which has a large institutional position, over say 70%. You'll find large news driven price gaps.
Why can only be guessed at. But the reason is (my guess) high freq trading algorithms used by these firms. This causes computer pile on dumping, large snowballing sell orders.
That guess is because many times the company involved has good fundamentals and such a large gap just shows zero human logic. I just got involved in RUBI which had the same thing happen.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RUBI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96275194756
Look at the volume yesterday at CCE. Bang some computer put up a open sell order way down @ $37 and the computers went nuts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49898302447
You can't have 30% of the OS adding 1 day and 10% of the OS selling down 24% without computer error. IMO
Actually when you find these huge gap downs, if fundamentals warrant, are good trade opportunities. Because the reason institutional entered in the first place still exists. So re-entry can be expected.
NYMT had a good day today. It broke 5.90 resistance on increasing volume. Adding comfort to the flag pattern target @ 6.35 stronger. (In large @ 5.75)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NYMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39063967437
LQMT is progressing, but I'm not too happy about todays gap up open and slightly lower volume. (In small @ .16)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p29495349533
Link back for original heads up post.
Not sure but spent a few minutes looking at fundamentals and my guess is it has to do with the fact over 80% of the float is held by institutional and they have recently sold 40% of their holdings. There wasn't a large short position. Also may have something to do with expectation July dividend Declaration will fall.
Really don't understand any of that (hiding bids) (bid higher then ask)(high bid bit) Or what's the question about all this?
None
Many companies business addresses are not in the state the corporation is registered in. So all legal mail and notifications go to a third party residing in that state. They then forward info to business. It's just a mail drop.
Lets leave CDNL for a minute and talk about how I evaluate investment grade companies on the big boards.
Using fundamentals, I always look at what the big guys are doing. "What is the Institutional ownership %".
Institutional investment managers have many college grad's running financial numbers. They invest millions when the fundamentals are good. They know what retail investors don't know. They research deeper with departments of people that do nothing but research, using computer models and the like.
So it stands to reason; if Institutional investment is strong. The big guys know MORE then me. So I follow that fundamental as a main factor. On average under 30% institution is poor, 30% to 50% average and above 50% strong. So I personally wouldn't event think of holding a long position in a company with less then 50% Institutional ownership.
--------------------------------------------------------
Now we'll go back to CDNL. Think of Mr. Li Jie Shan, the China big guy, as an OTC institutional investor. I see he wants eventually to own 51% of the company. So I feel he has a plan to increase potential to reality. Because he has used many business types to aid with a $7.5 mil funding deal decision. He knows a hell of a lot more then me, about CDNL's potential. He designed an agreement that protects himself, as Cardinal Resources has also.
So the more I can understand the China JV future share structure requirements in the various funding stages, the more I'll raise my comfort level, of the deal completing. What is Li Jie Shan's end game.
Due to my research; I'm seeing he requires CDNL's assets to be owned by the China JV company. He require the product manufacturing to be by "probably a related manufacturer" in China. He requires his board member added. He wants CDNL to be debit free. He wanted room in the share structure for increase investment (debit conversion). Yet he wants buy backs ??? and a reverse splits to position that share structure to eventually conform to big board company standards eventually. When the complete deal is finished.
He also WANTED retail to see 10 cents a share as true value !!! He wants existing debit holders to convert and hold cheap shares. Thus eating up a part of the new AS. Then IMO he expects the OTC game to be used by these VC investment firms for their ROI. (maybe event ask for) Which will raise the company fundamentals as price moves to 10 cents a share. Putting CDNL market cap closer to up listing requirements. When a reverse split will cap it all off, raising price also.
VC shares are not restricted like his. IMO his plan is to use them to get the share price to his first tranche 10 cent price level. And when they are all gone. He'll close his second trance at high discount levels allowing a 51% ownership for the China JV.
Each stage giving him assurances he's plan is on track, before enacting the next stage. Ending with Cardinal Resources becoming a Chinese company, with product manufacturing, & board members from China. But listed on a US national exchange.
What happens to the existing owner? He will go from owning over 10% of a start up. To owning 49% of a large company. And probably maintain a board seat. Without having to except a reverse merger deal and remaining on the OTC. His protection is the blank check preferred shares he can issue himself for .001 any time he doesn't like what's going on and regain complete control.
Welcome to my mind!
IMO this whole process should take over a year and I'll be watching filings to see if my guessing is correct. While swing trading the price action along the way.
Mr. Li Jie Shan has protection built into this deal, Kevin Jones has and I also have.
Watching cost nothing. That's my protection.
I wonder if board members actually know the Redbird/Cardinal Resources Inc. marketing plan. It's being marketed as a water business, not water filtration product. At least to date. It's possible the China JV will change this. And the company will be selling product, not business infrastructure.
Cardinal's rev stream will be from selling potable water. Then the water business after investment recoup & profit, a service contract on the product, As I read.
The private company I've been covering sells product. A completely different market niche.
Cardinal Resources Inc.
Economically Sustainable Water Business
Case Example – India
Organically Growing from 3 to 1,000 Red Bird Systems
http://content.equisolve.net/cardinalres/media/845de936ecd8266d0000a6ccd6dd23d5.pdf
Restarting the Bayelsa, Nigeria Contract
Innovative Approach to Project Financing
To Deliver Clean Water
May 25, 2016
http://content.stockpr.com/cardinalres/db/3/4213/file/Bayelsa+restart.pdf
Exactly. I wasn't trying to stress competition as much as the problem and product niches and CDNL's managements ability to market in it's best fit, without shareholder help.
But lets be realistic. Redbird isn't the only product focused on community needs. Just the one going where it's management feels the best odds for successful marketing. If board posters believe management is great. Then stop thinking their smarter then it. Leave them alone.
Ps;
http://www.iconlifesaver.com/products/lifesaver-c2.htm
Your correct, many in Flint are using this product for individual potable water. They can afford it, even though their governments do nothing.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/272163214973?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT
I've been interested in the world potable water problem for some time now. There are plenty of companies looking for an answer to potable water. Each having their own niche market.
Redbird isn't the answer to every niche. I'm sure management is spending their time where it will fit best, without constant annoyance from shareholders.
Very interesting subject from TED Talks in India, back in 2011;
Happy Memorial Day
It's a common gap. Just like the one, back the beginning of Mar. They fill quickly. But a flag pattern is not forming. There is no 3 to 5 day pole, only the flag down floating in the air.
Been spending a lot time chasing down share structure.
Last 10k Sept 30, 2015, SC 13G's / form 4's the 8k's, debit; both conversions and existing as of Sept 30 2015 and judgment info just released.
Back OCT 1,2015 there was a "Letter of Intent" LOI between CDNL and the CHINA funder. Has anyone found a copy of this and can provide a link !!!!
I have read the SPA completely several times, looking for where it requires or requests CDNL to buy back shares with cash from funding and can't see it there.
There are 8k's stating this is required.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=11363386
But it is not spelled out directly with-in the DEC 9th SPA.
What is spelled out though is CDNL will do a reverse split within 60 days after the final trance of funding. #5d Other agreements of the parties, page 15.
Under section #5e use of funds received. No comment directly spelling out a buy back. It referrers one to the LOI of Oct 1, 2015 found in exhibit A. But when you go to exhibit A in the SPA it is blank!!!
I'm looking for the Oct 1, 2015 LOI. Need help !!
My trades, plans, and actions for LQMT, NYMT, RUBI
LQMT back in play. Bounced just at 50% FIBs on weak volume, so far. My standing order closed for a 1st small position. Plan is larger at .18 top resistance break. With .21 target, this time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01421260355
Also have a swing trade position at NYMT 15.71 top resistance break, again. Which is moving up slowly, on increasing volume. Watching 5.90 resistance. Over all target 6.35
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NYMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p89668918002
RUBI I nibbled a little more on yesterdays gap down, to average down basis, on my previous 15 resistance break small entry. Todays move north has me just in the green again thanks to averaging down. Plan on adding a little more when 15.25 next resistance broken. And going larger when top resistance @ .17 is broken and price enters the gap area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RUBI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p22406569512
Play any at your own risk.
Ps; Still hold CDNL. Volume SUCKS and is lower then 1% of OS and lower then before the run started. But gain and acceptable loss figures haven't been reached. So just trading the plan. And watching the paint dry. LOL
No
You found a stock with insiders trying to say off a NAZ delisting notice, IMO.
Under a buck for 30 days can trigger a delisting notice.
Plus it's been falling forever and has a 10% short interest. Scary
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PTX
Thanks, but it's very thinly traded for 145 mil OS. Don't see how to make money with a 30 day average volume at 104k and ave price in the 18 cent range.
I'll put on weekly watch though. Let me know if you see any storm clouds forming, before a lightning strike.
I'm watching BAA if gold ever stops this retrace. It's sub dollar and tracks GLD very well, so gains will be much larger.
Never chase a running stock. Besides todays black candle signals exhaustion. Odds are a reversal will happen.
Then one could watch it for a flag pattern to trade to gap fill breakout. But it's not something that should be entered until that flag happens and bounces.
Are you thinking/looking for big guy manipulator accumulation, or retail accumulation. What I post and talk about is retail accumulation.
If StochRSI is low below .2, indicating the stock is over sold and the CMF is high above .25 strong buy pressure. That is a conflict. Just like the opposite would be. Because when lots of retail is buying, then the stock should show over bought.
So what one is seeing is; as price falls and selling takes place, retail is buying it up more then retail is selling it down. This is hard to justify for every buyer, there is a seller.
BUT
The main thing that allows one to see this take place is within the way the 2 support indicators formulas are calculated, over the 14 days, I have the indicators set for.
If trade psychology is normal; as price falls, buy pressure falls, and the stock becomes over sold. If price rises; buy pressure increases, and the stock becomes over bought.
But when you see price fall, but buy pressure continue to remain strong. It means the retail psychology is loading up, not moving out. Accumulation of the falling price, not distribution. More moving in then moving out.
Seeing accumulation only adds comfort if your long or waiting for a retrace reversal. Like seeing price very high and running, with the short interest ratio remaining small, on the big boards. That says retail expects continuation, not enough is enough.
So one can speculate a positive mindset prevails, in both situations. Accumulating a retrace or not shorting a major run.
It's a way to judge/speculate retails real feelings or mindset behind the stocks future. No matter the price direction. And add comfort if seen.
Ask him what color he painted his office walls last Friday? Because shareholders are watching it dry. Volumes under 1% of the OS since. (meant to be a joke)
CDNL chart update
Nice day. I was very concerned when .016 support broke down. The next support level was .013 and even though it gapped down at open, it finished strong. Support held, that was encouraging. Also even though it finished down for the day. Closing above the open was a positive. Volume was a null.
The light shining for down trend reverse is there are 2 gaps above now. With a candle which signaled trade psychology change today. Still have direction concern until price gets back above .016. But things look better today, then yesterday.
TA entry/exit indicators are at a null. not bad yet, but still saying indecision point. Support indicators are showing some weak accumulation the past 3 days. A positive considering it's been retracing.
There is a gap below MAY 2nd. which could still cause concern. But 1st gaps in a new move are often left behind. And it didn't seem to have much strength with .013 holding so far.
Here's a warning though. If .013 does fall, the gap below at .0115 will probably take price below 1 cent and that could trigger panic selling. So far selling sentiment has been weak.
NYMT back to strong watch for another flag up play. We want volume increase tomorrow, if 5.75 is broken. Target 6.35. Next resistance is 5.90 so there may be a problem.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NYMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39063967437
LQMT gave those still in the red day take profits signal today. Back on watch for flag formation. We want a retrace bounce before .15 which is FIBs 50%.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75231553673
Your market cap is wrong. Don't use what's on last reported. It's old data. And actually calculated using 215 mil OS (last reported)@ the price during the (last reported) report.
To find market cap you do multiply closing price, times last known OS. So today it closed at .0146 x 518 mil the CEO posted = $7,562,800. That's the market cap. Now use your formula and it just reverses the calculation. Your finding stock value which is known. It's todays closing price.
When I talk about true value, that's the average price of what people buying & selling the stock over time is. Moving averages gives true value. Depending on what time frame your interested in. Knowing what retails high & low average feelings are helps one understand if a stocks present price is under or over valued.
Agree not the norm. And so far not a manipulated move.
But; We all have hopes and dreams. LOL
What is a start up company, what increases risk. IMO penny players need to not only have knowledge of the market they trade. But the underlying structure of the companies on that market.
I'd be willing to bet most penny players don't know what they see on the OTC level 2 isn't their orders, but market makers orders. I'd be willing to bet most penny players don't know the structure and stages a start up companies on their chosen market.
Knowledge is what this board is about.
I don't like your wording response to BigBake1. Get a life! Really isn't called for, in a difference of opinion post here.
Enough we don't argue here. I already removed one of your posts for things like that. I Want you here to learn. Not re-enforce ego's with impolite comments. Thanks for stopping this.
Life "like the market" is full of GRAY. Which is best BLACK or WHITE will not help readers become successful traders.
On to a "on topic subject."
Trading start up company stocks.
First one needs to know the different stages of a start up company.
1. A business plan
2. Funding to execute that plan
3. Execution of the plan.
4. Product development
5. Product marketing
The each of the last 3 stages require capital inflow just like the first. So most often you will see 3 stages of raising capital. After the start up capital has been raised. (3 rounds of funding) a seed round, series A & series B round.
Stage 3. needs business staff, offices, supplies and the like.
Stage 4. needs production staff, materials, tools, work space and the like.
Stage 5. needs Marketing staff, advertising materials, communications, and the like.
Start up companies only have one thing of value to raise the capital needed to step through these stages. Stock. The stock is used for collateral, out right purchase, services payment and employee bonuses and the like.
Now we will get into the Venture Capital Market.
There are several levels of firms which loan money at different stages of a start up company. Because as a business progresses they acquire more and more assets on the balance sheet. Also each funding stage acquires more Equity and Debit.
Funding rounds
Stage 2. normally involves angel investors (private individuals)
Stage 3. involves professional companies which manage other people money.
Stage 4. usually as successful entrepreneurs involved
Stage 5. Could be any of the above.
As a start up business progresses through the growth stages it involves a different level of investment risk. Thus different types of firms. Each firm has expertise to evaluate risk based on how strong the company has managed money before. And this expertise involves assistance the companies management, along with capital.
I should also mention there are two types of start up companies. Private and public. We're moving in public only. From this point.
Most of the OTC company funding involves the stage 3. type of venture capital firm. Un like and angel investor who has lots of money and likes being on the ground floor of new ideas. Or the stage 4. entrepreneurs groups which assists management with both direction and capital as long term investors. The stage 2. firms are around to create gains for the people's money they manage.
Stage 2. VC's are the most profit/loss orientated type of Venture Capital firm. Armed with basically the same department staffs as a big board hedge fund.
So public company managements have a completely different mindset to motivate funding then a private company. Private start ups sell growth, potential market size, previous money management successes. Public management needs to sell stock value, much more then company value. For the capital investment their after. Because OTC VC's main goal is gain, not success.
This is the main, maybe the only reason penny players are involved in a much higher risk of becoming involved with a scam company. The people investment funding aren't investment minded. They are profit mined.
Another thing to keep in your mind is most CEO's on the OTC are first time start up company managers. They have the idea, they invest personal cash in the first stages. They love to micro manage.
While a private start up company CEO will hire legal, financial, marketing staff in their first original business plan executional steps.
Public company types, do it all themselves.
There is a all or nothing, my way is the best way. I need no advice only cash thought process, to how their minds work. This mindset, INCREASES your risk level when you agree and believe, rather then evaluate and research successful business financials.
It's my feeling there are so many scams on the OTC because of this micro management CEO style seen in the start up company public market. When it's your baby, even honest people may waver for the cash they need to save their kid. And because penny players can't and don't really evaluate and research true business strength/weakness. Bad guys flock there.
Food for Thought !
You all know, I'd like to expound on LQMT and the OTC. I've not played the OTC for a LONG time and when I started back checking for plays. I looked for funding. Since many more old penny friends are up to date on OTC action. And telling me; now days, the old days are gone. I must agree, But;
It still seems finding funding shares, works to some degree. Holding +50% at CDNL and closed second real nice trade @ LQMT.
I really don't feel the old days are returning. But am forming an opinion that using the same bases for interest, holds true today.
I say when you see something new to you, happens 3 times; it's a pattern and patterns are a more reliable way to trade markets. So far, finding funding shares issued, seems to still work. Maybe the runs don't look the same. But action in a OTC stocks price are hitting as expected so far. And finding possible action , before it happens, does help win/loss ratios.
RUBI & LQMT
Got a first nibble at RUBI's 1st resistance break today. It's in play IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RUBI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01526280528
Trade at your own risk
-----------------------------------------------------
For those with me at LQMT
Closed LQMT this afternoon @ .18
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=122799508&txt2find=lqmt
An early exit, but I really had no chart pattern target. Probably miss some up side. But too much emotion, volume and run time. Emotion seen in gap open & high candle spike. That's a reversal sign! Volume almost doubling previous 2 days volume levels and 4th day of a normally 3 to 5 day run. If tomorrow isn't red, I missed some. But will bet red comes after tomorrow.
Beside this is my second gain in the bank @ LQMT. So how much greed is needed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p31785609273
Oh 1 more thing about message board talk.
They are not talking about the first tranche of funding was suppose to be $3.5 mil, but got broken into 3 new smaller distributions. $1.1 mil each.
Only the first distribution took place. My concern only 1/3 of expected. And no one talking about that or was that really good or bad news.
I personally don't feel this is good news. If China was committed and Cardinal Resources were committed. They would wait for any regulatory agencies to OK the as signed deal, was originally out lined.
Seems to me like both, wanted a news event more then deal completion. And that smells a tiny tiny bit like scamdom actions.
I just don't understand your post.
1st what is;
Your 100% correct any up listing talk is sooo ahead of it's time it's a joke people are talking about that.
Since 2003 I've personally only seen 1 OTC start up, up list. And that was to the American exchange who's requirement were well below the NAZ, back then. Basically I'm saying never happen !
What do I expect for CDNL now that I have several weeks interest involved.
My original expectations to see funders manipulate price for profits, like I saw 6 months before on the CDNL chart has been proven wrong!
What's my feelings about anyone's owned shares.
When there is no manipulation, one should expect TA & charting to have a high amount of reliability. But there is no logic to CDNL's chart or TA, ever since the flag bounce didn't break top resistance. It's not following normal plots or paths for the patterns or indications in the data.
So I have personally lowered my expectation on making big money there. Well I mean HUGE money there. My trade plan was altered to protect capital. As trade plans should. Since I see little chance for a major run to 10X in the near term. I no longer feel accepting a 50% loss as reasonable. And have my acceptable loss changed to a minimum gain of 25%.
My personal GUESS is because price broke below .016 (true value), which was also major support, it will get lower. Next level of concern is .013. If that's gone, I'm gone. And I would hope others would take profits rather the watch their money drift away.
Everyone that trades any market Needs to realize capital preservation is just; maybe more; important then gain. You can always protect capital and re-enter if things improve with a stock. But if 50,75, or 90% of your capital is gone when a true reversal takes place. It's much harder to make losses up.
My mantra:
Don't except large losses on a decision to hold a falling price. If your hopes & expectations become true. Re-entry is always possible, and always more profitable.
NO
I see a negative chart pattern with negative TA indicators.