Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
It's really hard to say. I rarely, if ever get complete tops or bottoms. Was pretty darn close on these recent puts, but I completely finished covering this morning. I have no idea how much lower she could go but ripped through my strike prices. Even the furthest out at 34.
As for $50 before $25... I'd say the odds are stacked against that bet however, my next swing will most likely be on the way up. I'm very patient. Just not sure of I'll se as big of a run up as I've seen it drop recently let alone the way up the last year (or few).
There will certainly be more hype leading into rec, but as for share price, Keep a very close eye on the share count over the next 6 months. Are you seeing $50 a share with today's count around 200M? I would use 300M for a 6 month projection. That puts them at $15B. Why? What mathematically adds up to a $15B valuation? I don't see it. What will prices be like 6 months after rec? How is the black market preparing to compete. Will there be a price war? Are drinks really going to be as big as Bruce thinks? Many things to consider.
It would take a perfect storm to justify $15B imo and the odds are heavily stacked against that possibility for at least the next year or more imho. Depends how much the hype will be worth though and I suck at putting a valuation to hype.
Most, but not all,)
Time frames are certainly key to all trades. The longer your horizon, the more possibilities and variables on both sides of the equation.
Hopefully you'll never see that bottom. I'm definitely not hating on the company. I just think were in for a reality check...
Thanks man.
I don't blame anyone for disagreeing. I've always been a bit of a contrarian.
Lol. Never can stop watching. The bunnies have been abundant. Almost as if there was a breeding program inside the hat. I've honestly never been so amazed.
Fair enough. We have a disagreement in projections. They are the pros though.
The share count at the time was also much closer to 35 Million outstanding. With today's share count my target would have been closer to $3...
I am considering writing an article that will go into further detail with regards to the numbers. I will say that based on the Deloitte estimates and taking into account the wholesale models across many provinces, I don't see Canopy pulling in 1 billion in annual sales just from Canada for quite some time.
When I put the $17 target on Tweed in 2014, it was based on them hitting $100M in sales with 60% gross margins. At the time, Tweed had roughly 35M shares outstanding and was trading around $100M market cap.
People laughed, and with the exception of a few from this board, most thought I was out to lunch. In the end, I was the one laughing when my sales order went through on that memorable day of hitting $17 a share. Shortly after, I reloaded for nearly half of what I sold them at. I then liquidated those shares in chunks during the run up. I finally got rid of the last couple thousand shares in the $33 and $34's.
This has forever changed my life. Everything I own is from my investment in Tweed (Canopy). I live much better than I did before, I can retire much earlier than ever thought possible and I have more to invest and play with than I ever would have thought at this stage of my life.
I say all this so you know the next thing I'm going to say isn't coming from a hater, but in fact one of Canopy's biggest lovers (I have a friggin wall of Tweed and Canopy gear in my man cave paying homage to what I call my Canopy Wealth Experience). But the fact is, I not only am no longer long on Canopy. In fact, over the last couple weeks, I have taken up "short" positions via put options with different timelines and strike prices.
This decision does not come easy and I am not advising anyone else to follow my decision. I just felt that after seeing how big a hit my $17 target was on this board for such a long time, it was only right that I announce my new found feeling and positions here. I will say that I feel my decision does
come after careful analysis of the overall market as well as taking into consideration the international opportunities and diverse investments of Canopy.
My new valuation of Canopy also takes into consideration the announced approaches from all the provinces with regards to their distribution models and the change those different models will have on the bottom line for Canopy wholesale. Fully owned retail distributors of Canopy (Tweed Mainstreet locations) was the hardest to account for.
Regardless, every model I have attempted, puts us at a much lower valuation than the current market cap.
When I first found Tweed, they were undervalued at $100M valuation and projecting $100M in sales. My math didn't add up and I had to invest! Now we are here at $100M in sales and in the same position but overvalued. The models I've used don't come anywhere near $8B. I think a reality check will be in store. Whether or not that reality check is initiated by near term financials (first since listing on NYSE) or a couple quarters into rec is yet to be seen, but once again my math doesn't up and I had to go "short".
I think there's a reason they only sell those huge papers and blunt wraps over there. Sure would be nice to grab some Tweed when on Holidays.
No. Not even close. Some half decent hash, but don't recall ever coming across any sensimilla let alone quad quality. The top of the top in Jamaica is equivalent to our lower end mid grades at best.
I've been all over. More times than I can count. From growers Fields to wharfs where they are drying. Sure, if I just wanted a bag I could get any can driver outside the resort to hook me up with some brown crap. When looking for the best I have been to some really sketchy spots. You got very lucky to get a trip to a field and a bag for only $40.
Not sure what the plan is for Tweed in Jamaica. I've been on some pretty sketchy adventures looking for good bud in Jamaica. Would have been much easier and much safer to just grab some bud at the resort or a shop of some sort.
Absolutely. I've certainly flipped a few times these past few years. Worked out everytime like clockwork until last. Time for flipping is over. Positions are set. Nothing to do now but wait and keep loading. 90% of all my positions are in Canopy and I've never felt safer.
Storage limit on 25 plants under ACMPR is roughly 1125 grams. If he was yielding 500 grams per plant then his first 3 plants would put him over the limit. He's also not getting 500 grams per plant indoors unless he's got 12x 1000 watt lights, 14 foot ceilings and the 10's of thousands of dollars to run a setup like that. He's also not doing that 4 x per year without a perpetual grow including veg room, flower room, mother room, etc. And that would put him over his plant count if he was vegging and in flower with 25 plants in each room. If he was doing it outdoors then the vegetation time needed to yield that per plant would only leave enough time for 1 grow in Canada.
Most of the peoeple with a license to grow are small tent growers just like Bob here. I grow substantially more than Bob but I still sign up with licensed producers. They have variety and I can only grow so many strains at once. I also love the flavours from Tweed.
Order # 500975 moments ago
Exactly.
Just an FYI.
Plastic might not be recommended by your source, but one of the best growers around uses plastic. Not any plastic mind you - it has to be Zip Zag bags (formerly BC Bags). Comes out sticky icky and fresh but stems still snap. He ("Grand Master Level") created "The Death Bubba" and just won the Island Harvest Cup for both Indica and Sativa. With that said, I don't think he stores for more than a few months. I personally use an 18 litre "Cvault" and it keeps humidity and moisture content perfect for at least a year. Just thought I'd mention that.
Didn't you pretty much say the same thing when I put a $17 target on Tweed in April 2014? That was 3.3 years ago Bob. It hit. I made a lot of money. I didn't listen to you then and no one is dumb enough to listen to you now. At the time I called that, Tweed had just crosses over a market cap of $100M. You sat there warning people against it all the way from then until now. The company is now worth $1.3B Bob. That is a capital B for Billion! Now you are going to continue from here until they are worth $10B? Don't make a fool of yourself twice Bob. You will see the equivalent of $100 per share one day. $13B market cap is very achievable. Don't fool yourself twice.
Indeed! Some heavy sativas definitely give me anxiety and a racing heart. There is much more to these plants that we don't know. Some sort of entourage effect between all the terpenes and cannabinoids is my assumption on the cause. Considering sativas and indicas (and of course ruderalis) developed their properties in very different climates around the world, it's no surprise that they would have different effects. The psychoactive effects may be similar but there is much more going within the endocannabinoid system that we are just beginning to study.
Awesome! Lemon skunk is definitely very nice. I had it coming out my ears when they lowered it to $6 just before the switch to Mainstreet. The best I have had from them was back when the Ghost Train Haze (Princeton I believe) and the UK cheese (from the Smith Falls facility) was around. The taste was to die for.
Tweed lot #2 is one of my top 5 all time strains from Tweed. Taste is beautiful. Super terpy and very unique. Enjoy.
You wouldn't want to see the reaction I would have if someone said that in front of me.
Not too shabby!
Had order number sent to me. 414940 about an hour ago.
I could be mistaken, but I believe at least 1 batch of Leafs by Snoop was from the farm (sunset). I was shocked at what an amazing quality it was. Didn't look anything like outdoor. Very dense and tasty as could be.
Indeed. I just don't think you can extrapolate a decent estimate for market share without including Mettrum's sales from that period. This was 5 months ago and prior to a major acquisition which makes it no longer relevant.
Have a great night. Bed time capsules kicking in...
Thanks for the clarification on the definition of "client" in the regs lol. No need to read the document. You just told me... I'll take your word...
You agree that you didn't include the mettrum numbers when comparing to HC'S. This should be added to Canopys kilograms sold. You cannot accurately state Canopys market share without doing so. 13% is not an accurate estimate of market share. You don't have to imply, but to ignore relevant data is to mislead. For a true estimate you must include Mettrum. Pointless for you to even state 13% otherwise imo.
Sorry for the late reply. Don't post much as I don't usually have enough time.
Couple things stand out to me about those numbers you're using. Don't think it's accurate to say Canopy has only 13% when you consider the following.
1. The market data from Health Canada for Kilograms and equivalents sold to clients... Is this including grams sold to authorized users and LP'S. Is an LP considered a client in b2b sales? As an example, were the grams sold to Aurora by Organigram counted in these numbers and counted again when sold to authorized users? Without separating these sales the numbers are skewed from the beginning.
2. If I'm not mistaken, the numbers you are comparing to HC's market data are not inclusive of the Mettrum Acquisition. You are comparing Canopy to the data prior to the Mettrum acquisition yet using numbers from Health Canada that do include Mettrum kilograms sold. That alone would obviously increase the market share for Canopy.
3. Tweed Mainstreet proudly states on the landing page "it's no wonder 1/4 of all ACMPR shipments come from us".
Basic things to consider in your elementary DD...
How in the world did you come up with 13%?
I have a feeling the build out will be adequate and timely. As for the 20 million, we are getting a piece of the competition right off the bat. Other funds are already allocated to construction including the new manager if I'm not mistaken.
I like the streaming idea. I wouldn't be surprised if Chuck had it first and Canopy got word but pumped it out first. I don't care about the number of deals, but the quality. As long as Rivers focuses on quality deals, this could pan out really nice. While I like most aspects of the deal Wheaton has with Broken coast, I'm not too impressed with some of the other names. In fact, some of them are what I would consider straight bottom of the barrel and gave me a dirty feeling with Wheaton being associated with them.
I'm hoping to see Rivers stay away from those types and focus on quality over quantity.
Thank you. I would agree completely. The data would be nice.
As you clearly know, the media likes to use numbers and wording to their advantage. I've been guilty of intentionally doing the same myself lol. I highly doubt it's in the thousands of patients. Would be surprised if it's even in the hundreds. Personally, I'm Just curious to know the reasons and cause/effects on the receptors. The mysteries we will hopefully soon unlock with regards to the endocannabinoid system is very exciting.
I've been waiting to see more and more of this. I smoked copious amounts of the highest grade cannabis since age of 11 (save the judgement lol). When I was 18 I started waking every few months with an odd and painful "flopping sensation" in the left side of my abdomen. I would then start vomiting intensely to the point of dry heaving and even bleeding of the esophagus. These vomiting episodes would last for roughly 24 hours and happened every few months. (I of course continued to ingest cannabis for its anti emetic properties during these episods lol)
I had dozens of Ambulance and emergency room visits with this condition for 10 years. I had every test imaginable with no positive results. I had Doctors with theories from opiate withdrawal (despite negative opiate tests) to theories of it all being in my head.
5 years ago I was going through what had become the regular emergency Hospital routine after yet another Ambulance trip. I had a young ER doctor who was quite curious about my cannabis use. After discussing my extremely large usage of connosieur quality, the good doc through a term at my I had never heard. Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome. He explained the theory of this condition and I was floored. I hit every symptom perfectly. When I heard about the hot bathing I was positive it must be this.
As hard as it was, I quit using cannabis in every way. I did so for 12 months. After 12 months I took a chance. I had a couple tokes and waited a week. All was fine. I gradually built up my tolerance again over the next 4 years without a single episode. I now use roughly 20 grams per day via multiple application methods and feel great. If I have another episode I will rinse and repeat with 6 months of not ingesting.
CHS is extremely mysterious and I'm looking forward to the research that will inevitably be coming over next several years.
It is amazing. Can't understand where this notion that they grow crappie comes from. Have had 2 batches I wasn't pleased with out of hundreds of orders. The top stuff is definitely connosieur grade.
Exactly. Great way of looking at it.
Not necessarily. I'm not that ill and I have well over 8 grams a day and use it all. I make topicals creams, eat edibles like you wouldn't believe and take a boat load of cbd oil. I also vape 4 to 6 grams a day on average. When you make topicals, have a tolerance for edibles and vape like I do, it goes really quick.
Sorry to jump in. Just wanted to point out that the 4 plant recommendation is only for recreational Purposes (and might not get passed into legislation). Medical users can grow 5 indoor plants for every gram per day. Some of us are allowed hundreds of plants. The people that can grow and have the time to do so are not the target market anyways.
Indeed. I'm sure they will have their place.
Alberta Healthcare pays for it also. First time I got mine was in 2014. I had to fly to BC and pay a doc $500. I now see Natural Health Services and it is covered completely.
Hmmm. My understanding was that those genetics were DNA's but obtained by Tweed from MMAR growers who were using DNA Genetics during the transition to MMPR. DNA obviously was providing genetics to the grey market and MMAR prior to the transition. This is why those genetics have the story about the mother being kept in Vegas for over 20 years and Father being donated by "Eddie" (Its the same story from DNA's website for those genetics.) If I was to order seeds from DNA genetics today, I would get those genetics, but quite sure they would be illegally imported from Europe (stealth shipping.) I could be wrong, but I'm quite sure that Tweed did not import any genetics from the states.
Are you sure the origin of that product was from the states? Could have swore it was from the Okanagan.