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Agree hyr, also most of rox's earnings reports seem to take forever for people to digest and decide what to make of it. On the one hand the Quarter was eh, but it was better than last years on the other hand Lampen actually put some mild guidance out there for like the first time ever. Seems like we will be in this .80 - .90 range for a while until people decide what to make of it, seems like once it hit .85 people started bidding where as this morning there were minimal to no bidders.
Shorts piling on and people getting out, most people expected this to run up and they come out with a weak 10Q. With no bidders, this will be in the 70s if not 60's before the end of next week if not this week. With no news until 11/08 for their next quarterly it's dead money, entirely up to you with what you want to do IE get out vs stay in. I very much feel the same as you, I don't trade based on emotional reactions though.
Sorry if this is a report. saw it today.
http://wgno.com/2016/08/09/bourbon-barrels-transported-by-boat-arrive-in-new-orleans/
For their slowest historical quarter I didn't particularly have much issue with the report, y/y comparison their balance sheet is still improving and heading towards the black. While it would have nicer to see larger increases it would be more concerning if it was a decrease.
PPS has actually held up so far considering 110k shares were dumped in an hour. Seems like some people are interested in high 80's price range.
Commentary below
"While sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2017, typically our slowest
period, were impacted by the timing of introductions of various line
extensions and wholesale shipments, we anticipate accelerating sales growth
over the balance of fiscal 2017. We are planning several additional releases
for Jefferson's, including Ocean Cask Strength and other wine finishes, to
build on the success of Jefferson's and Jefferson's Reserve. We expect sales
of Goslings Black Seal to accelerate both in the U.S. and internationally and
be augmented by the launch of Goslings Gold Seal, while we continue to see
increasing sales of Goslings Stormy Ginger Beer," stated Richard J. Lampen,
President and Chief Executive Officer of Castle Brands.
"Based on the growing strength of depletions (sales from our wholesalers to
retail outlets) during the quarter, we expect that accelerating sales growth
will produce increased revenue, gross margin and EBITDA, as adjusted. Improved
bottom line and substantial unused debt capacity position us to continue to
add to our bourbon reserves to support Jefferson's as opportunities arise,"
Mr. Lampen added.
"We are very pleased that Impact, a leading industry newsletter, has named
Jefferson's a "Hot Prospect" brand based on accelerated sales growth in recent
years. In addition, Goslings' sponsorship of the 35^th America's Cup Challenge
continues to expose Goslings Rum and the "Dark 'n Stormy"® cocktail on a
global scale, and should provide for continued growth in the brand's core
markets as well as the opportunity to expand to new markets. With the addition
of new Goslings distributors in Canada and the Caribbean and launches in
France, Sweden, Norway and Italy, we expect U.S. and international sales to
increase over the balance of the year," said John Glover, Chief Operating
Officer of Castle Brands.
In the first quarter of fiscal 2017, the Company had net sales of $16.8
million, a 1.4% increase from net sales of $16.5 million in the comparable
prior-year period. Net loss attributable to common shareholders was ($0.8)
million, or ($0.00) per basic and diluted share, in the first quarter of
fiscal 2017, as compared to a loss of ($1.1) million, or ($0.01) per basic and
diluted share, in the prior-year period.
EBITDA, as adjusted, for the first quarter of fiscal 2017 was $0.5 million as
compared to $0.6 million for the comparable prior-year period.
Kind of a ho hum quarter, nice to see some actually commentary from Lampen though.
Operating highlights for the quarter ended June 30, 2016:
Net sales increased 1.4% to $16.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2017, as compared to
$16.5 million in the comparable prior-year period.
Total gross profit increased 1.3% to $6.7 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2017, as compared
to $6.6 million in the comparable prior-year period.
Jefferson's was named a "Hot Prospect" brand by Impact, a prominent industry newsletter,
based on accelerated sales growth in recent years and was ranked by IWSR as the number three selling super-premium american whiskey
Nice 20k bidder .8996 and some blocks going off earlier. Hopefully they put out a nice report. I was hoping they would have done prelim again.
Some nice block buys here. Might be some shorts covering on stop loss as it pushes back to the upper 80's. Estimated Earnings release is 8/9/2016 so likely on Tuesday we will have some news.
lol a Zacks rating, might as well just call it the stocktwits.com rating, as they are as clueless as any other website.
Looks like you were right Soldier, probably that 100k Bidder got his cheap shares to load up. Now -6 to +1% on the day.
It would be nice if this stock wasn't so easily manipulated, I don't blame shorts for targeting it.
Someone felt the need to offload ~800k shares in 3 days that is fore sure.
Looks like at this point the preliminary earnings were a 1 time only occurrence.
Nice 49k Bidder on .85 encouraging to see after yesterdays buyerless day.
If ~.84 doesn't hold aka the 50 & 20sma then it will go back to .70 before earnings, nothing else besides some weak support at .75
Basically what they are doing, Shorting it to try and get stop losses to trigger and increase selling as the volume died down from ~300k shares a day to 100k, much easier to manipulate a stock downwards when there isn't a ton of volume than there is when people are actively trading it.
Short Volume creeping up again. 1.2MM/1.24% of Float. Hopefully see a nice Quarterly come out on 8/9 and see them rush to cover again.
There he is, once the 80k Dumped 160k .89 bidder is back in bigger size.
Interesting 100k Bidder at .89 haven't seen size that large in a while.
I think we are seeing a combo of both today. Some additional Covering as it broke and held the 50 sma in addition to some likey traders getting in as well as im sure it popped up on alot of scans looking for price crossing over the 50 sma. Either way, a nice day.
Looks like 2MM Shorts covered during this rally. Seeing SI at 969.9k/1.03% of float, down from 3MM shorted. Looks like the majority have moved on which is always a good thing.
Just popped up over that 50sma, and no sell off. Couple large blocks in the mid 80's but we got some nice cosonsistant creeping up.
slow and steady to the break of the 50 sma. I much prefer slower steady inclines than the massive green bar candles that get shorted into oblivion like we saw it make the last few years. Rather there be natural price appreciation organically than traders ringing it up.
Still currently 3MM/3.18% of Float Short, 23.7 Days to Cover. 3MM Shares needing to be bought still sitting probably hoping for a failure at the 50 SMA. I'd expect alot of stop losses placed above it.
There's some nice end of day volume. 50k slap. some nice over .80 bid support.
Interesting premarket activity +16% 3500 bidder at .81 already
Lampen dropping the Multiple Form 4 200k+ share buy. According to the form 4 puts him 180 shares short of 2.5MM personally, including him and his wife together.
Someone still selling. some block trades going off, someone at .71 keeps refreshing their buy. Held onto .70 if it doesn't next stop would be .65
Wouldn't be surprised to see some form 4's filed next few days. I almost added 72/73 range but figured why bother. Likely can get some cheaper shares tomorrow.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some form 4's filed next few days. I almost added 72/73 range but figured why bother. Likely can get some cheaper shares tomorrow.
Very interesting selling here. I imagine a fund (non-russel), has been liquidating. That or some long has tapped out.
Might be a little bit low, supports are above .50 on the weekly/monthly charts, but who knows. To be honest the market absolutely hates this stock for some reason. There are far worse companies that trade well above this for no real reason. Could go to .30 cents for all we know before it bounces, this is not trading off fundamentals, it's completely at the whim on traders.
Hyr - Agree with you, I meant to say after the russel rebalancing selling we will likely be very oversold, had that not been a short catalyst I'd believe we would be approaching bounce territory here as the stock has been red now 9 days in a row after a steep decline. I would expect to see some short covering into that as well as 3MM shares are short and this has a 12.3 Days to Cover (Over 5 is considered rather high for those unaware.
I for one was not saying buy at 1.80, I was trying to convince a friend to sell at 1.80. I think we are over extended to the downside at the moment personally and think this is an attractive entry area. Given there are 94.9M Shares Float vs 160.5 Shares out, that number is down a fair amount from this time last year and the market cap is relatively low at ~123.6M considering comparables trade at a much higher multiplier than ROX does. Now this all could be moot if they throw out a dud of a earnings release however I think real depreciation in price was due to the poor earnings quarters directly related to acquiring more stock/inventory and the partial investment in the Distillery they bought into to help acquire more stock.
I think we would see estimates again (If they decide to do them ever again) a week or two before earnings. Currently that is estimated on 8/8/16 So realistically Mid/End of July is when I'd think we would have some idea on some estimates, again assuming they decide to give them out again.
Yeah they meet the market cap requirements. its the sub $1 PPS. Should prob bottom out around the low 70's mid 60's assuming everyone is just straight dumping shares on Friday. I may add somewhere in there. Depends how the liquidation goes.
I frankly never understood why they joined the index, if anything it seemed to invite more attention to the company for short sellers then any liquidity benefits for longs. People analyze the indices and look for weak spots, what is ROX? A small growth company who never PR's anything and has lower volume between news cycles, seems like a great place to hammer away at if your shorting.
another 19900 block @ .85.
Well that was quite the block trade. 145362 to open.
Once whoever is done liquidating will be able to see some actual upwards movement. I assume its funds, I'd be surprised if it was Barrington selling S3 shares at these levels. I'd assume its in anticipation of them being dropped from the Index on June 24th.
Yeah, if anything you are seeing institutional holding/re-balancing changes if anything as quarter end is coming up in 2 weeks. Looks more like just some typical shorting which has been higher than normal in the last month or two trying to push this down.