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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon
What is most important is the following. If you read the above link you will realize that bitcoin is the next evolution of “money.” Gold millenia ago, paper currency, now bitcoin. If you can take a risk with FnF, you can do bitcoin, and best yet institutions haven’t invested yet = no bubble yet. Read ...
10. Putting a Value on Bitcoin
To attempt to put an objective value on Bitcoin let’s look at BTC's competitors, and other popular asset classes along with their respective market values.
Investable Gold: Roughly $3.5 trillion
Physical Currencies: $7.6 trillion
M1 World Money Supply: $37 trillion
World Stock Markets: $73 trillion
M3 World Money Supply: $90 trillion
Derivative Market: $544 trillion-$1.2 quadrillion
Bitcoin: $223 billion
Sammy, ur post doesn’t get to the 400 billion. Please support that #.
Sammy, can you provide a ref to the 400 billion prefered #? I may sell my prefereds soon and get into bitcoin as this may drag on further than expected. I’ll come back when there is better clarity, which might not happen until Corker and Hensarling are gone.
If you can’t beat’em join’em
-Sold common and converted to prefereds
-From a congressional view, shareholders are one of several prorities for housing reform, and from an objective perspective the reform can be handled in a two step process where government backing for new mortgage structure is guaranteed with new entity (Ginnie Mae?) and secondary market through new companies. Fannie and Freddie capital structure is sold or reassigned. Depending on simplicity or complexity of plan will determine difficulty in passing legislation
-Possibiity of 60 votes in senate may not happen in 2018 but government backing for affordable housing advocates could eventually get enough to pass votes eventually
-Paulson (prefereds) was first to back Trump, Trump doesn’t care as much about commons. Commons may get something but it will be scraps = heavy dilution
-Probably most important is caveat emptor = buyer beware - if you bought shares in a company in conservtorship and there is horrible dilution for commons, you knew what you were getting into. What this means is legal standing for shareholders is shaky. Legal track record is abissmal
-For me wildcard is Ackman - what are his options if prefereds (Paulson, et al) are made whole and now Ackman is left on an island to influence lawmakers while everyone else is appeased?
-Corker/Warner want to make a deal and do enough to get it passed - commoners may not lose but they will be paid last
Precisely - need an equitable solution for all parties involved in litigation, otherwise there is too much risk for Treasury.
It’s a simple debit / credit scenario - banking 101. The treasury has een receiving dividends on questionable legal footing. FnF have paid way beyond their original bailout. The government can easily structure the net positive position accumulated from the billions of sr dividends as recapitialization for settlement of all lawsuits.
Mnuchin and friends have a lot of flexibility here. To suggest anything else is either uninformed or disingenious.
Let’s wait and see what the legislation proposes. Below demonstrates the discretionary spending powers by congress. Easily included in a “Housing Soundness Resolution.” Pick a name ...
https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-budget-101/spending/
This “article” is BEYOND self-serving. Simple point: Use difference between 186B and ~280B repaid to recapitalize the companies at ~100B. This is a MAJOR step towards PROTECTING taxpayers. Also, common will not drop to 1.80 per share. Forward looking PEs, etc., will provide a multiple based on potential future earnings from arguably the largest industry on the planet. So once FnF are on solid footing institutionals will take large positions in FnF for retirement, pension, etc. My time horizon is long term as I got in around the 2 buck mark in 2017.
Makes better sense to settle ALL lawsuits and recapitalize FnF with ~100 Billion net gains via sr pref dividends and nullify all sr preferreds and let the jr preferreds run their natural free market course, which provides a windfall to Paulson, Berkowitz, et al, plus some type of conversion between 50 and 100%.
The author of that article has a plan and is using their platform to generate more volume in Jr preferreds so they can start to take a position in common. I bet lawsuits will be dismissed contingent upon the Sr preferred’s warrants being nullified. That is a nice and neet way of ending all lawsuits that would be the only true risk to a Mnuchin/Treasury plan. Ackman wouldn’t accept anything less . Looks like this author got nervous from Groshan’s Benzinga article and is trying to spin it
Perhaps you should read this one. It’s the basic foundation behind Groshan’s analysis, not mine. I’m just putting it in Layman’s terms. Hopefully this will help ...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/208214-preferred-vs-common-stock-whats-the-difference
Possibly only 50 percent conversion for prefereds is worrisome for them. Especially if only specific preferreds are provided with preferential treatment. So preferreds may go up three times where they are now depending on which preferred you’re invested in while common technically doesn’t have a ceiling over the long term and as the price of commons from this floor goes up, that in turn means less appreciation of equity for preferreds after being converted to common post appreciation. I like holding the common.
Plus, Berkowitz et al maybe fine with 3×4 times return on their money via preffeteds with a modest conversion to common to appreciate a little more. Again, I’d rather be in common.
Funny how so many are trying to minimize the overarching news and trend that supports Bill Ackman's comments about the shareprice not reflecting the bipartisan support that keeps the GSEs standing.
What that means, especially to the shorts, is the risk in holding this stock has minimal risk in losing value. Betting against FnF at this point is not recommended, especially since further information will undoubtedly be released to the public over the coming weeks.
#FNMAShortSqueeze
Well, at least it wasn’t in exchange for adding HR 4560 to any upcoming bills.
Doesn’t any legislation originating from the house need to pass the full house and senate, AND go to the president’s desk? If so that will be interesting. Or is Hensarling via French trying to add this to a budget bill?
From a Common Shareholder perspective, I’m not sure I care if TBTF enter into the secndary market via Watner/Corker II as long as a equity stake is converted from FnF to the new companies. Seems like the community bank people are nervous ... Not sure FnF shareholders truly care.
Ok, after doing some digging based on the fact that Corker/Warner II has a plan to break up FnF into multi vs single, and then further breakup those two general groups into further subgroups, meaning companies, based on the following link dated 6/27/17:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/06/27/republican-democrat-fannie-mae-freddie-mac.html
And the fact that Mnuchin has obviously been kept in the loop by Warner and Corker (probably helping with framwork) and these guys want to enact reform that can pass and get reasonable buy in from lobbysts and general public. Mnuchin and by default Trump do not want to act unilaterally as any blame or faults would lay at their doorstep.
So since the latest Bloomberg article confirming Warner/Corker II that has been in the works for many months, and has had input from Mnuchin, Treasury & Warner/Corker may be getting to a point where they may be benchmarking FnF to breakup the companies like the utilities were in the 20th century.
This way no one, or two in this case, company monopolizes the secondary mortgage market. Shares from FnF are replaced with a benchmarked conversion of many shares in many different/smaller FnF companies that attract significant private capital as the first layer of risk. Treasury can essentially convert the warrants and spread them over all the companies. Ginnie Mae then backs the FnF small companies and the “bad day” fund begins to be capitalized via mortgage fees.
Even Hensling could say he helped end Fannie and Freddie, although really they would’ve been broken up into smaller companies to diversify the risk better.
Lastly, there would be essentially three layers of protection for taxpayers - FnF brokenup companies, Ginnie Mae, and the “rainy day” fund. And shareholders rights would be honored by converting equity in FnF into smaler FnF companies for diversification and competition.
All IMO
Well, IF they are attempting to rush a “solution” through with Warner/Corker/Mnuchin and FnF are to continue to exist, then they may need to benchmark the common shares for a type of conversion. No time like the present with 3 bucks being the benchmark. Just some basic speculation.
So you’re in a room with Trump cabinet members, Mnuchin, etc, and tell Warner-Corker its time to play ball. Trump cabinet members say, “Even if you could pass your original legislation, Pres Trump will veto it anyway. Play ball, fix the system, and let the companies live on with greater competition.” Fine by me as the sp will go up 5 to 10 times where it is now.
31 million short interest as of nov 15th. How do you continue to short FnF when they will continue? I’d probably give up my short positions right about now. A little short squeeze at the open tomorrow would be nice. Warner-Corker have made a very large course correction.
It looks like alot of folks posting may not be long and want to buy in tomorrow. If you read the Bloomberg article you will see that the senators, the trumpet administration, and prominent stakeholders including hedge fund owners which also includes Ackman who is a common shareholder are all at the table. The new senate plan has FnF plus more competitors in the market. These companies will have to pass stress tests and certainly will be tradeable.
Good luck at the open. At least a corner has been turned.
Well, they may recap and release after making the preferreds whole and buying them out. Who knows. Need more details from the plan but FnF are staying.
I suppose it all comes down to each investors’ cost basis. If your cost basis is in the 40s or 50s, it doesn’t sound like the new Warner-Corker plan will get investors close to whole. I suspect if your cost basis is closer to 3 bucks, those investors will probably fair pretty well. Plus, FnF may be able to continue to earn profits going forward and who knows where that takes the share price.
So when they say “make whole” do you believe that means make whole back to the $60 price that Fannie was trading at prior to the housing collapse in 2008?
Even with 6 billion shares fannie made between 15 to 20 billion net. 6 into 18 = 3$ withe a PE of 1. With a PE of 10 = 30$. PE of 20 = 60$.
Got it
Can you break the 5 billion down from where we are today at 1.3 billion?
Can someone tell me even if the warrants at 80% are exercised wouldn’t that mean essentially you would have another billion shares in the float along with any convertible preferred if say the mollis plan was enacted So Even with two.5 billion shares in the company will still probably average roughly 15 to 20 billion a year in net income for the forseeable future? Isn’t that still plenty of net income to drive the share price at a 20 multiple to say $30-$50?
What am I missing? Top 3 only plz ??
Moore's Emails ...
I would like to know what is in the 2008 emails. According to Acer's counsel Moore's emails possibly relate to the Texas claim construction. It was all after the fact though considering the claim construction took place in late 2006 or early 2007 if I remember correctly.
I am curious to know what was in those emails. Hopefully it is a ploy by Acer to create more confusion for Judge Fogel.
Corrections, comments welcome...
GLTAL
I suggest reading how the courts deal with reexams and litigation. The courts will not wait indefinitely and will eventually move forward with legal proceedings regardless of the PTO.
How do you think some of the most successful patents win in litigation while being continually challenged at the PTO?
Answer: The court moves forward.
I highly doubt a stay will be granted on the 336 again.
GLTAL
And what is the relevance?
GLTAL
The vast majority of litigations settles. So I expect PTSC vs TPL will also settle.
The terms I would like PTSC to win from TPL via settlement negotiations would be a new Master Agreement where:
- Absolute separation of TPL sole proprietary IP being commingled with the MMP
- PTSC employees are permitted to work at Alliacense for auditing purposes of ALL facets of company operations to confirm separation of intellectual property portfolios and appropriate accounting of PTSC dollars exclusively towards MMP costs
- PTSC is allowed to control MMP PRs
- PTSC is allowed to appoint the "independent manager" to the PDS management committee
- Decisions on infringement litigation strategy is "ultimately" approved by the PDS management committee
I liked that in the latest PR about the 336 NIRC TPL referenced Alliacense as being essentially the sole reason for the MMP success. IMO it seemed like a message from TPL to PTSC about the importance of Alliacense and, IMO, TPL's greatest bargaining chip. PTSC's possible greatest bargaining chip is criminal activity IMO.
The MMP certainly appears to be an important piece of IP. There is a lot to lose if a settlement is not reached at some point. I suspect Leckrone will give some ground over the next 6 months. The question is how much?
GLTAL
I find it hard to believe that the Leckrones would be embroiled in patent infringement litigation against the T3, already have their preliminary infringement contentions (PICs) against the T3, and then risk disrupting the MMP licensing campaign all over a 1 million dollar promisary note.
Have the Leckrones really squandered their half of MMP money also? I know a lot of money went into Chuck Moore's venture and the Leckrones were required to pay Moore his percentage although it is not yet known if Moore has in fact received it.
Was the 1 million dollar promisary note the proverbial straw?
I find it hard to believe that Leckrone would risk the quantity of MMP money in the "infringement pool" by defaulting on a million dollar loan.
So now PTSC has decided to push back. I still do not like the current BOD make-up but their current course is the only course and is long overdue.
If memory serves the Master Agreement requires that the independent manager of PDS be mutually approved by both TPL and PTSC. Carlton Johnson is apparently overseeing the books.
There are also apparently 3 licenses that have yet to be announced, one probably being Sirius, so hopefully Monday morning PTSC will announce the 3 and soften the 10k blow. Who knows?
The court in Santa Barbara, California has saw fit to NOT compel private arbitration which, again if memory serves, goes completely against the Master Agreement that states TPL and PTSC must go into private arbitration if their is a dispute between the parties. It appears as though the courts are willing to question the Master Agreement and rule against the contract considering the breach of the million dollar promisary note AND all of the alleged illegal behavior by Leckrone.
I assume that the 1 million dollar promisary note was a ploy on PTSC's part?
Ahhh, the beloved Pelligrini Ploy of my little league days. To put it in plain language for all to understand, Mr. Pelligrini and Mr. Leckrone would've been best buddies if they were both coaching the same team. lol
GLTAL
It all comes down to who has the upper hand or who will blink in the PTSC vs TPL litigation.
The end game for PTSC vs TPL is to resolve their dispute so they can continue to make money off of the MMP.
So imo PTSC and TPL will continue to announce licenses, or something more is in the works. Any future MMP licenses that TPL sign in conjunction with non-MMP linceses could be subject to litigation considering the PDS "management committee" voted two to one that TPL can not group MMP and non-MMP licenses together.
If PTSC has a contract leg to stand on then TPL will eventually yield some "decision making" control from PDS.
The sooner it is resolved, as long as PTSC receives concessions, the better off PTSC investors will be.
GLTAL
The Falk Family Trust
Apparently a post I made earlier today was deleted for no apparent reason. As far as anyone is concerned I could easily be related to ease2002 and not one person on this message forum would be capable of discerning the difference. Therefore, any reason for deleting my posts because of my relation to ease2002 is unwarranted and unsubstantiated. My IP address is not that of ease2002's banned IP address.
It is like saying because a "representative" of the Falk Family Trust on the Agoracom message board was banned, all Falk Family Trust Agoracom message board posters must be banned. Or treated harshly with deleted posts about on topic PTSC issues.
Obviously anyone can see the conundrum anonymous message board posting creates.
PTSC and the Falk Family Trust are pertinent topics of discussion on this forum.
Now I do believe there are Falk's who live in Germany. More importantly I would like to know how many Falk's there are who were originally listed in the 16 + million shares that were distributed to the heirs.
These topics go to the very heart of current PTSC activity in my extremely humble opinion.
Good luck to all longs
---
http://agoracom.com/ir/patriot/forums/discussion/topics/434372-the-falk-family-trust/messages/1420477#message
The above was posted by a person with the name of ease20022002. I must say he/she has a great taste in names.
I wouldn't mind PTSC using all of the settlement proceeds to repurchasing shares and then resupplying with future licensees. There is a four month golden opportunity to try and bring the float closer to 300 million.
That would be huge IMO.
Someone give me money so I can buy...plzzzz
GLTAL
Head22, Cmon...
I am 100% confident TPL/PTSC settled for atleast decent money, or future contracts to both TPL and PTSC. It will be worth our while.
We have fought hard and won in Texas and we will win at the USPTO. The USPTO used the Markman to intially reject the 584. I strongly believe they will use the Markman, especially NOW, to AFFIRM the 336 and 148. (SOMEONE LEND ME MONEY SO I CAN BUY!!!)
There is no way the settlement was for 0 dollars until the USPTO renders any decision. I would bet the USPTO comes out over the next month or so and says the 336 and 148 are solid and beyond reproach. It is over. The legal uncertainty is gone.
SOMEONE LEND ME MONEY SO I CAN BUY!!!
GLTAL
How can I get 20k at a reasonable interest rate? I need the money...that will get me to where I would want to be sharewise...
ughhh
Warren Buffet - Do not focus on the day-to-day price fluctuations. Or something like that.
Legal uncertainty GONE!!! and I am not pumping, I truly feel good that there really isn't a way for this PPS to tank. It may fluctuate, but it won't tank!!!
I wish I could double my share count. I don't own a home so I can't get the money for that...ahhhhhhh...I need cash to buy...
Congrats to all longs.
GLTAL
I need money to buy this stock. This thing will be at 3 to 5 bucks within 6 to 1 years time.
I need money. If I had any money I would be buying shares hand over fist.
How can I get financing for say 20 k?
The price drop doesn't bother me in the slightest. Now is the time to buy IMO b.c the legal uncertainty is GONE!!!! Thanks goodness. I need money. Someone lend me something...
GLTAL
Is there a way to view only a specific posters posts? I was loooking to go through Wolf's pacers, but I can't do that unless I can view only his posts.
Thanks in advance for any help.
ease