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If Infrastructure remains strong, then PRIM, STRL, or ROAD ?
I'd like to get any opinions on these, as it appears with the infrastructure bill passed, that companies building & repairing roads and bridges stand to continue to benefit. Now I have picked three companies that do roads and bridges- PRIM, ROAD, and STRL. The question I have is, what is the best value ? For me, I am big on PEG ratio, and getting analyst opinions on the next few years of overall growth in addition. Assuming balance sheets aren't a problem for any of these companies, which would be the best value ?
PRIM- 10% eps growth expected, PE of 12 going forward, and next five years growth expected 10%/year
STRL - 13% eps growth expected, PE of 19 going forward, and next five years growth expected 11%/year
ROAD - 29% eps growth expcted, PE of 30 going forward, and next five years growth expected 60%+/year
For me ROAD is the winner, both in PEG ratio over the next year, and by far the most impressive with huge growth expected for years to come
SS, do I have any more trades available to use
at this point ?
NVDA down 15% from day highs !
Soooooo much AI hype, I've only seen in 2000 with the Internet hype. It ended badly then, and it will end badly this time. That is, stocks in the space are just up waaaay too much for their potential. Now that doesn't mean that NVDA & SMCI aren't really getting order up the wazu, and it doesn't mean that growth hasn't been fanstastic. However this is the case in every new technology. I mean the Internet, Solar panels, and now AI. Of course the analysts are saying AI is the biggest thing since the light bulb, the steam engine, etc. However no one I talk to has any idea how much AI will average making companies for the increased productivity it will translate to. I've heard 3%/year for the average S&P company for the next 10 years. So I remain in the camp that the AI bubble will burst, that tech stocks will get pounded, and that the market will enter correction over the next 3-4 months at latest.
Wadegarret portfolio- up 6% YTD, up 177% since Jan 22
SS, like to renig on a trade if
you haven't made it yet. That is trading SOXS for PLTR. I've decided to trade SOXS and buy IART instead. Let me know if you can do that. Thanks
Updated portfolio
Cash $73,725
GERN 50000 shares
HALO 3000 shares
Sell PLTR @ $25.85
Sell 2800 PLTR @ $25.85 = $72380
Updated porfolio
PLTR 2800
GERN 50000
HALO 3000
Cash $1345
Buy PLTR @ $26.02
Buy 2800 PLTR @ $26.02 = $72856
Sell SOXS @ $3.01
Sell 24500 SOXS @ $3.01 = $73745
Updated portfolio
SOXS 24500 shares
GERN 50000
HALO 3000
Cash $456
Buy SOXS @ $3.01
Buy 24500 SOXS @ $3.01 = $73745
Sell PLTR @ $26.25
Sell 2800 PLTR @ $26.25 = $73500
Updated portfolio
PLTR 2800 shares
GERN 50000
HALO 3000 shares
Cash $701
Buy PLTR @ $26.88
Buy 2800 PLTR @ $26.88 = $75264
Updated portfolio
Cash $75,965
GERN 50000 shares
HALO 3000 shares
Sell SOXS @ $2.87
Sell 26500 SOXS @ $2.87 = $76055
Timing the top to the semi or tech sector is impossible
I may just stop trying, and go back to what I know. Plus there is massive manipulation from sophisticated algorithms, that seem to know the behavior of the masses at all times, making it impossible to play momentum. Wadegarret portfolio is trying hard to stay ahead this year, but it's been tough.
Bobwins- PLTR
Yes, great company, but why a 65 PE going forward, when NVDA has a 30, AMD a 39, and SMCI a 35 ? I mean the growth with NVDA, AMD, and SMCI is about 30%-40% going forward, where as analysts only have 10% growth expected for PLTR going forward. I mean to be the next GOOG, MSFT etc, the growth has to be what these companies had when they were growing, which was around 50% eps growth for years, Where are the analysts making their mistakes ?
I see this market as very tough
I mean, you can always chase momentum in stocks that are extended, but that risk/reward has no appeal to me. Also you can short over valued names, but very risky in a frothy market like this. I mean this year my short plays have hurt me a little, and in 2003, I got clobbered with them. For the most part, I've gone back to the way I always played before 2018, and what most of the board does. That is, find good values, with the most growth vs peers, and play them. The thing that makes this market so tough is,,very few stocks rally a great deal intra qtr. I mean if you generally don't hold into earnings, you look to make out off a good report or intra qtr good news, suggesting the stock is still cheap, even after any earnings day pops. So to make out, the stock has to keep rallying past earnings day. This is becoming increasingly difficult IMO. Also for me, I don't like anemic liquidity stocks, as the bid ask spreads are huge, and you move the stock way too much trying to trade it. If I do start mostly longing stocks again, this would be the first year in six, as I've mostly shorted indexes/stocks, or both since 2018.
I've only seen this one other time in history
late 1999 to March 2000
Anyone tempted to play SOXS ?
Updated portfolio
SOXS 26500
GERN 50000
HALO 3000
Cash - $90
Buy SOXS @ $3..08
Buy 26500 SOXS @ $3.08 = $81620
Sell 26500 SOXS @ $3.07= $81355
Sell SOXS @ $3.07
Nelson- GERN
March 14 is the day the Oncology Advisory Committee meets, and discusses GERNs drug Imetelstat. It isn't the day the FDA comes out with a yea or nea, as that's June 14. However according to JAMA, 97% of the time the Advisory is positive on a drug, it gets approved.
Semiconductor Index up 60% in 4 months !
Unreal. I can't help myself to short it !
CRWD- Has given back 60% of pre market gains !
A blowout report, but investors selling off since the open.
R59- GERN
Thanks. Good luck to you as well
KIK, are you still in SOXS ?
FACO- are they required to put out an audited 10K ?
Updated portfolio
SOXS 26500 shares
GERN 50000 shares
HALO 3000 shares
Cash $175
Buy SOXS @ $3.08
Buy 26500 SOXS @ $3.08 = $81620
Updated portfolio
Cash $81,795
GERN 50000
HALO 3000
Sell SOXS @ $3.08
Sell 26500 SOXS @ $3.08 = $81620
Has anyone looked at the MAX chart on ^SOX ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESOX
Please click MAX
How much more will AI make companies ?
I'm hearing 3%/year more for the average S&P company.
Updated portfolio
GERN 50000 shares
SOXS 26,500 shares
HALO 3000 sh
Cash $175
Buy SOXS @ $3.12
Buy 26500 SOXS @ $3.12 = $82680