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R59- SOXS
No, I changed my tune after the hit I took in 2023, that I can't time it. I thought I could, but just lucky in 2022.
Wadegarret portfolio- up 35% YTD/up 254% since Jan 22
R59- FOR
My feeling is, mortgage rates are going up. Inflation is stubborn again, as Powell suggested this week that the goal of getting to 2% is far away. I think the rally in home builders has seen it's day, and the almost 10% drop in FOR, despite strong earnings, suggests future demand will wane with rates staying as high, or going higher.
R59- ADFJF-
What is your sell target ? thanks
DRCT from $3 to $32 to $7 in 5 months
Unreal ! Next step ? Back to $3 by August.
Updated portfolio
ELTK 12700 shares
GERN 70000 shares
cash $1559
Sell IART/Buy ELTK
Sell 4300 IART @ $31.90 = $137.170
Buy 12,700 ELTK @ $10.77 = $136.779
Cash $391
Why does CMG deserve a 44 PE going forward, and
a PEG ratio of 2 to 1. Generally speaking a 2 to 1 PE ratio suggests a rich valuation. I mean SMCI and NVDA have closer to a 1 PEG ratio. However it does appear food stocks have higher PEG ratios than tech companies.
R59- IART($32)
Re, what do you think of this one ? Seems like a good risk/reward into earnings next week, as the company said their Boston Factory should be back on line this May or June, and gave guidance of $3.19 for 2024 and $3.60 for 2025. The stock has gotten demolished for almost 3 years now, and there are major concerns that the closing of their Boston Factory for the last year or so(due to recalls from 2018-2023), will have caused them to lose market share for their medical device product made there. However the recall has overall not yielded many problems. My feeling is, they wouldn't be opening up the factory if they thought they lost that much demand for the product. Using the guidance given, the stock is selling for less than a 9 PE going forward, in an industry that demands 25 PE or higher for the average medical device manufacturer.
GERN $3.75 acting nicely-
I believe GERN is one of the best plays out there. That is, after the ADCOM recommended approval of Imetelstat on March 14, with a 12-2 vote, chance of FDA approval is 97% according to JAMA studies. I believe GERN will be over $6 if FDA approves on June 16. As I've posted many times, after crunching the numbers, I feel GERN will post $.60+ fully taxed and diluted on $1B in revenues, which I believe will happen by 2028. GERN estimates $2B+/year by 2030. This estimate doesn't include the use of Imetelstat for Myelofibrosis, which is in phase 3 studies by GERN. So huge potential for GERN IMO
Hweb- MAMO
Looks like they reported around $.25 for fiscal 2023. How much do you think they might post in fiscal 2024 ?
Hweb- IART
The company says, assuming the Boston Factory re opens this May/June, that they will post $3.19 this year and $3.60 in 2025. PE on every medical device manufacturer is 20+ going forward, but with IART at $31.90, is less than a 9 PE going forward. One other negative is, 29% of their revenues come from outside the US, and currency exchange is expected to negatively affect earnings according to an article I read. Even so, with Q1 coming out April 25, seems like this one is a good risk/reward buying at $31.90 today. What do you think ?
IART($32.08)- Conflicted on this one
Bought back shares in Wadegarret this morning $.30 cheaper. Seems there is resistance at $32.
Updated portfolio
GERN 70000 shares
IART 4300 shares
Cash $1168
Buy IART @ $32.04
Buy 4300 IART @ $32.04 = $137,772
Updated portfolio
Cash $138,940
GERN 70000 shares
Sell IART @ $32.34
Sell 4200 IART @ $32.34 = $135,828
IART, I've changed my mind
I have no idea why the stock seems to have no bottom, but if it were just the Boston Factory issue, this stock wouldn't keep dropping. I may wait till after earnings on April 25, but for now, will take a 9% loss.
SS- IART
Why do you think investors keep selling ? Are you buying more ? It seems the stock has no bottom
IART($32.70), if it goes to $30, I'll buy 50% more
This one is one of the most ridiculously sold off stocks out there. I mean the company is guiding for more in 2025 than they made when the stock was $76, yet the stock is $32 ! The only way the current valuation makes any sense is, if the Boston Factory re opens, and there is no demand for their once popular product. However I can't see how they wouldn't know if they've lost that much market share. The other concern is that 29% of their revenue is from outside the US, and currency exchange is expected to hurt profits if the current trend holds. Again though, currency exchange fluctuates constantly, and is impossible to predict. So IMO, every day the stock goes down to new multi year lows, the valuation becomes more irrational. In fact, at this point, the stock is acting like it might go out of business. Of course stocks always go higher and lower than expected, sometimes to a great degree. If it goes down another $2, I plan to buy 50% more, as earnings come out April 25, and I expect them to say positive things about the re opening of the Boston Factory. If I'm wrong, the stock has already been more than appropriately punished, so minimal downside IMO.
Wadegarret portfolio- up 34% YTD/up 251% since Jan 22
SS- IART, here is and excerpt of the PR I cited from
" Foreign Exchange Woes Persist: Integra faces challenges from foreign exchange fluctuations as a significant portion of its revenues come from outside the United States, involving transactions in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. With the recent upward trend observed in the value of the U.S. dollar, further acceleration expected by analysts in this value will cause the company’s revenues to face a tough situation overseas."
My bad on the assumption of over half revenues outside the US, as the article just says "significant portion of it's revenues" . However even 29% of revenues that are causing a problem is still a nice chunk. I sure hope $32.60 proves a low, but we have till April 25 to go lower, and I believe we will unfortunately.
GERN($3.65)- I would use this pullback from $4.05
to start a position, or add, if you already have one.
Hweb- GERN
Definitely holding for now. I mean GERN has a drug that only one other company in the world has to treat MDS(a deadly anemia), so huge potential to take market share(about $5B/year overall potential) IMO. Plus they are finishing phase 3 for the use of Imetelstat in another fatal anemia- Myelofibrosis. If successful, GERNs Imetelstat would be the only drug in the world to treat it. I think GERN could easily get bought out for around $10.
SS- IART
The stock is down about 10% in the last month- are you adding to your position ? One article talks about currency exchange hurting earnings as well, as most of their revenues come from out of the US. Still, I'm surprised to see the stock continue to fall, after the company reiterated about the Boston Factory re opening in May or June. Seems like there is major concern about them losing market share for the product they were making in Boston, as there is no bottom here, but I added a little today at $32.77
GERN($3.59) is a solid play here
Positive ADCOM vote on March 14, almost assures FDA approval. As I've posted many times, I've crunched the numbers, and assuming their infusion drug has 80% margins, GERN will make over $.60 fully taxed and diluted by 2028/2029. GERNs drug Imetelstat will be one of only two drugs in the world to treat low risk MDS(a deadly anemia), and revenues are expected reach $1B/year by 2029, and possibly much higher by 2030. I really like the potential here, and feel, assuming FDA approval, that GERN will be worth $10+, and a buyout candidate for sure.
IART from $73 to $33 in 2 years ?
Is this all because of the the recalls from their Boston Factory, that caused a shutdown the last year ? Now the company says the Boston Factory will be back on line by May, and in fact, they've given eps estimates for 2024 of around $3.20, and 2025 of $3.60. I've got to tell you, it seems to me, this stock has been over sold. I mean I understand investors are concerned IART lost market share this last year, but to sell off the stock over 50% seems an over reaction, Time will tell, but with PEs in the medical device sector averaging 25 going forward, I would have to say, knocking IART down to a 9 PE going forward is a bit much. Earnings are coming out for the March qtr on April 25, and I'm sure the company will give an update on the Boston Factory re opening. In the meantime, it seems IARTs other products are doing well, so hoping for a nice spike on April 25 on positive news about the Boston Factory.
EOG up 30% in a month !
I always liked this stock. PE of 11 going forward, and I think it goes higher yet, with the middle east situation.
GERN & IART- Surprised the board not in these
SS is in IART, but no one else, and no one is in GERN but me. Here's the thing. Not only are these two fantastic risk/reward plays over the next few months, but they have liquidity vs anemic micro caps that you can't trade more than $10K, without making the stock go up or dow n 10%+ ! Both GERN and IART have at least 50% upside potential over the next 3-6 months IMO.
INMD looks cheap at $18
I mean, so they now make $10M less in revenues, but margins are holding. I still see around $2.30 in eps, and believe the stock is worth around $23, even though things are slowing
There will be no soft landing
Anyone been to the gas station lately, or the grocery store ? What did wage inflation look like this last month ? I'm looking forward to moving a large 3.5% 3 year bond coming due this summer to 4.5%+. Also looking forward to GERN on June 16
I'm predicting a 10% correction starting by May 31
Wadegarret portfolio- up 28% YTD/up 236% since Jan 22
R59- Points well taken
However I think how one plays the market depends on ones goals. My goal was to make enough in the stock market, that I could live on the interest. When I got there a few years ago, I took out enough to do that, assuming 4%-5%. Now if I had a huge cash reserve over that, I would be open to putting more in, but in this particular market, I'd rather be out anyway. My gains over the last two years have been stellar, but a bad market correction of 40%+ could wipe it out quickly. Re, I guess you could say, I'm content with my success at this point, and don't want to chase anymore. If I would continue to be as good with the market going forward, as these last couple years, I'm sure I'll build up my portfolio nicely again, and may just let it ride the rest of my life.
PRIM($45.50)- was a mistake getting out at $40
I just figured, that the 10% or so eps growth given as guidance for 2024 was a bit disappointing, and that it wouldn't get more than a 12 PE. I was wrong, and now the stock is already selling at a 14 PE going forward, and it appears it has momentum to $50.
Very happy to be 90% fixed income
This market reeks of trouble ahead. Look at the jobs report today. There is no way that wage inflation can keep rising, and not affect overall inflation. One thing for sure, there is zero reason to lower rates. Higher rates for longer, much longer, is for sure, yet markets are pricing in 3 rate cuts this year at least. Something has to break, and I'm glad to have so little in stocks. I told my wife in 2021, that I didn't feel it prudent to keep even 50% of my available funds in the stock market, and especially true if rates went to 4% or higher. Well that day came to fruition, and I followed my mantra. IMO, especially after the rally in markets since November 2022, anyone with over 50% in the stock market right now is gambling big time, regardless of the fundamentals, or valuation of the stocks they own.
IART lawsuit- concerns of recalled medical devices
made at the Boston Factory from 2018 to 2023. The lawsuit is from about 10 months ago. I had a feeling there was more to the story than just a closed Boston Factory. IMO the main reason investors are scared, is that other companies have likely taken market share of IARTs products that were made at that factory. I still think the stock is an interesting play on the Factory reopening(as no major issues resulting in any major illness or death from the recalled devices), but this would explain why it may not get near the PE of other medical device companies ie Stryker or Baxter- at least for now. Another concern may be, that when the Factory re opens, the new devices made won't bring the margins they once did.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230523006118/en/IART-INVESTOR-NOTICE-ROSEN-A-LEADING-NATIONAL-FIRM-Encourages-Integra-LifeSciences-Holdings-Corporation-Investors-to-Inquire-About-Securities-Class-Action-Investigation-%E2%80%93-IART
SS- IART
SS, there seems to be no bottom to the stock. Why do you think there isn't more interest, being that the company says the Boston Factory will be back on line in May or June ? I was reading the Yahoo message board from a year ago, and they were talking about lawsuits from tissue displacement ? SS, why was the Boston Factory shut down in the first place ? thanks
Updated portfolio
IART 4200 shares
GERN 70,000 shares
Cash $3112
Sell IART @ $34.20/Buy GERN @ $3.20
Sell 700 IART @ $34.20 = $23,940
Buy 7000 GERN @ $3.20 = $22,400
Cash $1540