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Value- SMCI($740) down $340 in two sessions !
I actually am liking it for re entry, but may wait a bit, as the semi sector and AI sector getting smashed today, and may continue. I think SMCI will be a buy for sure around $600.
Updated portfolio
GERN 74,000 shares
PRIM 4210.76 shares
Cash $569
Sell GERN @ $2.04
Sell 180.96 GERN @ $2.04= $369
Sell RXRX @ $12.40/Buy GERN @ $2.04
Sell 5623.32 RXRX @ $12.40 = $69729
Buy 34180.96 GERN @ $2.04= $69729
NVDA report this week is huge for AI
I have a feeling though, that the NVDA report, no matter what is said, will see a sell off in the stock and sector. I think SMCI could come back to the $600 area yet as well.
I find this market tough
I mean, GERN my favorite stock, is manipulated to the point of ridiculousness. How else can one explain persistent increases in Institutional ownership quarter after quarter, while the stock gets cut in half, and is still trending down. I mean how does a biotech trend down that much while waiting for FDA approval of a best in class multi billion dollar/year potential drug ? It's as if someone knows the drug won't get approved, and shorts every rally.
Then there was GEOS, which was a 10% loser. Then SOXS has been around a 10% loser. PRIM has been a 15% winner, Now AAOI was my one big winner, but almost entirely last year, as I got out at $19.25. My day trades have 80% been losers, no matter what the stock. I mean I'm up a couple % this year, but it's surely like pulling teeth.
SMCI up $770 in 3 weeks/down $270 1 day
Now that's the stock I want to trade !
Wadegarret portfolio- up 8% YTD/up 184% since Jan 2022
Hweb- SMCI is a gamblers stock above $550-$600
The company has analysts at $28-$29 in eps for fiscal 2025. I personally wouldn't give the stock more than a 20 PE going forward. I mean no matter how hard some try to say no, SMCI is a hardware company, and sold for a 7-8 PE for most of last year. Also there was talk of competition today, so unless SMCI has barrier to entry, I don't know that they should get more than even a 15 PE going forward.
Updated portfolio
GERN 40000 shares
RXRX 5623.32
PRIM 4210.76
Cash $200
Sell GERN @ $2.06/Buy RXRX @ $13.47
Sell 36770 GERN @ $2.06 = $75746
Buy 5623.32 RXRX @ $13.47 = $75746
SMCI, I'm tempted to short @ $990
Updated portfolio
GERN 76770 shares
PRIM 4210.76
CASH $200
Sell SOXS @ $4.24/Buy GERN @ $2.09
Sell 13195.57 SOXS @ $4.24 = $55949
Buy 26770 GERN @ $2.09 = $55949
Sell GERN @ $2..10/Buy SOXS @ $4.28
Sell 26893.84 GERN @ $2.10 = $56477
Buy 13,195.57 SOXS @ $4.28 = $56477
Updated portfolio
GERN 76893.84
PRIM 4210.76
Cash $200
Sell RXRX @ $12/Buy GERN @ $2.11
Sell 6487.2 RXRX @ $12 = $77846
Buy 36893.84 GERN @ $2.11= $77846
Updated portfolio
GERN 40000 shares
RXRX 6487.20
PRIM 4210.76
Cash $200
Sell GERN $2.10/Buy RXRX @ $11.33
Sell 35000 GERN @ $2.10 = $73500
Buy 6487.20 RXRX @ $11.33 = $73500
SS, I think this market is similar to 2000
I mean how many SMCI type moves in late 1999 to early 2000 ! Yes PEs were higher, but there was similar euphoria. I think this all ends over the next 1-3 months, and then we have a substantial correction. I succumb though to the fact that it's almost impossible to time.
A correction
I posted I sold 24305 shares of SOXS instead of 23350, so 45 shares @ $4.44 = $200 more cash
Updated portfolio
PRIM 4210.76 shares
GERN 75000 shares
Buy PRIM @ $37.45
Buy 834.90 PRIM @ $37.45= $31267
Updated portfolio
GERN 75,000 shares
PRIM 3375.86 shares
Cash $31,267
Buy GERN @ $2..19
Buy 35000 GERN @ $2.19 = $76650
Updated portfolio
Cash $107,917
GERN 40000
PRIM 3375.86
Sell SOXS @ $4.44
Sell 24,305.71 SOXS @ $4.44 = $107,917
This market has to correct eventually
Extremely dangerous market IMO. Long is no good, short is no good. Something has to give
Like to publicly thanks SS
As the board knows, I set up a managed portfolio at the request of R59, that I started on Jan 2022. What I didn't know until I kept making math errors was, SSKILLZ had been double checking my math. I never asked him to do this, but he does. Today especially, I want to publicly thank SS, as earlier today he found a $10,000 errror I made against myself in recording a transaction. Being that, for whatever reason, I usually make math errors against myself, he has saved my portfolio $15000+ in math errors over the last 2 years. Thanks again SS !
Updated portfolio correction
I made a mistake on my buy of $44,200 of SOXS earlier today. I had the buy price as $5.56 instead of $4.46, so the correct amount should have been 9692.98 shares, not 7949.64 shares. The difference is 1743,34, what when added to the 22,607.37 I had recorded, equals a correct amount of 24350.71 shares. Thanks to SS for pointing this out to me. Here is my corrected updated portfolio...
SOXS 24305.71 shares
GERN 40000 shares
PRIM 3375.86 shrs
Updated portfolio
GERN 40000 shares
SOXS 22607.37 shares
PRIM 3375.86 shares
Sell GERN @ $2.18/Buy SOXS @ $4.61
Sell 10000 GERN @ $2.18 = $21,800
Buy 4728.85 SOXS @ $4.61 = $21800
Updated portfolio
PRIM 3375.86 shares
SOXS 17878.52 shares
GERN 50000 shares
Sell GERN @ $2.21/Buy SOXS @ $4.56
Sell 20000 GERN @ $2.21 = $44,200
Buy 7949.64 SOXS @ $5.56 = $44,200
ESOA- Anyone have opinion after Q4 report ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/energy-services-america-announces-financial-213000561.html
Hweb- ESP, good catch on the higher margin assumption
I would agree, and expect that next qtr isn't $.72 again, even if revenues are the same- maybe more like $.60-$.65. Problem I have is, how much over a 10 PE going forward does one attach here ? I mean(in hindsight) at $15, the stock was trading at a 6 or so PE going forward, so a steal then. However now, assuming the $.72 will be closer to $.62 without the higher margin, then the stock has a 10 PE going forward at $24-$25. What PE going forward would you attach ?
R59- GERN
Re, I think this is the right time to hold, as March 14 is only a month away. I believe the stock will trend up into the announcement, and maybe even get to the $3 area by then.