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TPC vs PRIM
TPC has 40% the market cap of PRIM. Both companies are doing well for the Infrastructure Bill. TPC looks to have analysts expecting 80% growth in 2025 vs 2024 vs 20% for PRIM. The question is, what should the valuation be. For TPC, in which $1.50 eps is expected in 2025 ? the stock is selling for a 12 going forward. For PRIM, analysts expect $3.28 eps for 2025, so a 14 PE going forward. In addition, backlog for TPC as of Dec 31,2023 grew 26% vs 20% for PRIM. Lastly PRIM pays a dividend, and TPC doesn't.
However, the big question is, if you think the Infrastructure Bill(to last till Dec 31, 2026) will continue to benefit roads and bridges stocks for the next couple years, which company has more upside potential % wise. At first glance is surely appears like TPC is the winner. However one would have to look at the PEs for both TPC and PRIM over a long period of time to see which one garners the higher PE in general. Also PRIM is over twice as large on a market cap basis, so that might mean something. Lastly PRIM does pay a dividend, all though only around .5%. Hard to know for sure, but with the stronger earnings growth of TPC vs PRIM, yet a lower PE, it seems it would TPC, even after the unreal run it's had over the last year, may still have more potential % upside vs PRIM. However important to note is, analysts only have a $15 average price target on TPC, while PRIM a $55 target. I suspect though that the price target for TPC will go up after the latest qtr that only came out a day ago(analysts have not upgraded yet).
Wadegarret managed portfolio- up 36% YTD/up 256% since Jan 22
Updated portfolio
Cash $135,645
GERN 70000 shares
Sell IART @ $28.33
Sell 4800 IART @ $28.33 = $135,984
Corrected portfolio
IART 4800 shares
GERN 70000 shares
Cash - $339
SMCI & NVDA- Just bet on the stock that is lower !
Whenever NVDA is higher than SMCI, bet on SMCI to go up. Whenever NVDA is lower than SMCI, bet on NVDA to go up ! That is the pattern now.
SS- IART
How bad could it be on May 6 ? I mean, what do you think the bottom for the stock would be if the Boston Factory has bad news ie it will take another 3-6 months to get it on line ?
IART($27.40)- I just bought in Wadegarret @ $27.67
I just hope they aren't going bankrupt !
R59- AAOI, good points
I was a bit mixed up, as I thought analysts were raising targets, not lowering.
Updated portfolio
IART 4800 shares
GERN 70000 shares
Cash $339
Buy IART @ $27.67
Buy 4800 IART @ $27.67 = $132,816
Sell AAOI @ $10.52
Sell 12000 AAOI @ $10.52 = $126,240
Hweb- AAOI
The hope is that MSFT will give AAOI more business than they can handle, as there has been recent news that they expect to keep increasing their data centers. MSFT is AAOIs major customer, and they just gave AAOI a $300M contract. Then again, it was a very disappointing qtr in Q4, and I may decide to sell for now, and make sure things are looking better in guidance for Q2
IART($27.30)- down another 7% ?
I don't get this one. How bad could the news be on May 6 ? The company has been cut by 65% in 3 years, and it's persistent. In the meantime, eps could end up to be at $3+ for fiscal 2024, even without the Boston Factory. This stock is acting like the company may not make it !
Hweb- AAOI, yes fiscal 2025
R59- META, yes & I just bought AAOI
at around $11 today ! The semi stocks are also down after hours, so what chance does any tech stock have tomorrow ! I looked at AAOI, and do find it attractive around $10-$11, as MSFT has said they are planning on even more data centers. Thing is with AAOI is, analysts feel they will post around $.90 over the next year, which is over twice as high as six months ago. IMO this all has to do with the analysts feeling that MSFT will give AAOI all the business they can handle. However I have a feeling AAOI will go down to around $10 or lower before earnings on May 9. I do feel AAOI is a strong hold into earnings at around $10-$11, and I will likely hold.
I'm also tempted to hold IART into earnings on May 6, if the stock is in the $28s or lower the day before.
New Portolio
AAOI 12,000 shares
GERN 70000 shares
Cash $6237
Buy AAOI @ $10.98
Buy 3000 AAOI @ $10.98 = $32,940
New Portfolio
AAOI 9000 shares
GERN 70000 share
Cash $39,177
Buy AAOI @ $11.06
Buy 2000 AAOI @ $11.06 = $22,120
Buy AAOI @ $11.05
Buy 1000 AAOI @ $11.05 = $11,050
AAOI- Nibbling @ $11
I think the stock could go to $10, but that's about it before earnings on May 9. MSFT, their largest customer, keeps adding to their supply of data centers. I believe that AAOI could still make $1 going forward 4 quarters, despite the weak Q1 to come. I just don't think it's over for AAOI just yet, and hopefully they come to life again with strong Q2 guidance.
Buy AAOI @ $11.04
Buy 6000 AAOI @ $11.04 = $66,240
Updated portfolio
Cash $138,587
GERN 70000 shares
KIK- GL
You obviously were swayed by the short report. What's your take presently ? thanks
SS, PERI($11.60).- I think the bounce may be over
I was thinking about the $9 cash/share. However I think PERI may only receive a 6-7 PE now on eps estimates of around $1.50 on Yahoo, especially with the MSFT contract expiring in Dec coming. Just too much uncertainty about the future of PERI in general
Sell IART @ $29.18
Sell 4700 IART @ $29.18 = $137,146
GERN- Can the FDA be bought off ?
FDA said they don't think there is much efficacy for GERNs drug Imtelstat. In addition, they don't think the risk of the side effects(specifically Cytopenias and Nuertopenias) are worth the benefit the drug gives to so few. The Advisory Committee told the FDA on March 14 that there is huge efficacy for Imetelstat, and it met primary and secondary end points in phase 3. They also said the side effect of Cytopenias can be well managed, and the beneifts of the drug far outweigh the risks. They said that around 40% of the patients taking the drug have much improved lives, and are either totally transfusion independent or take far fewer transfusions, even after e year. They said overall hemoglobin levels are much higher for these 40%, and patients just feel much better. They said that being there is just about no treatment for these patients that have MDS(a deadly anemia), the Imetelstat is an option well worth taking, despite the fact that 60% were non respondent, and had to endure side effects while on the drug.
My fear is that there was no logical reason for the FDA to have been so negative in light of a 12 to 2 vote as a suggestion to the FDA to approve the drug. I am concerned that big pharma was swaying their view on Imetelstat, and that if they still are, that FDA approval may not be given on June 16, despite that fact that 97% of time the Advisory Board has a major consensus, the drug gets approved.
Hweb- DRCT, I still think a scam
Value, now that would explain Wadegarret portfolio
2.4 year gains of 260% !
R59, Ok,
thanks
R59- SMCI, I can't read the article
It's making me sign up to read
Hweb- GERN
Like to get your opinion on whether the FDA can be bought. I mean, I wonder how often the FDA comes out days before the all important Advisory Committee meeting, and ditches a stock. That's exactly what they did with Geron. Here is the scathing report the FDA had just two days before the ADCOM meeting on march 14(which ended up in favor or approval with a 12 to 2 vote)...
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-fda-staff-flags-concerns-about-gerons-anemia-treatment-2024-03-12/
My concern is, the FDA was somehow pressured by big pharma to come out with this scathing report. I mean how in the world could the ADCOM have such a strongly opposite opinion on GERNs drug Imetelstat than the FDA had ? Bottom line is, if in fact the FDA was swayed by big pharma to write the scathing report just two days before the ADCOM meeting, then why isn't it possible that the FDA will continue to be swayed by big pharma, and NOT give GERNs drug approval on June 16 ?
SS- PERI, good points about the cash
I will look further.
SS- PERI
Yes it appears cheap. However PEs expand when things are going well, and contract when things are going bad. In fact, during periods of strong growth, there's no way to know how much higher the PE will go. SMCI sold for a 8-10 PE for years, and now with AI, sells for a 25-30 PE. So PEs can expand or contract by multiples, and during the height of the up/down growth cycles, it's especially hard to know how to value. PERI is cheap right now compared to the past, but who knows what PE it will now receive. For me, I don't see any growth story in tact for PERI right now, and therefore, I could see where a 7-8 PE going forward might be all it gets. I like a story like IART better, as they've been demolished, are selling at less than half their normal PE, and could be a comeback growth story yet, where the PE expands again.
Back in IART @ $29.10
Sold at $31.90, so back in cheaper after the delayed report announcement. I can't see this company being worth much less than this. I mean the news would have to be really bad to send the stock much lower !
Updated portfolio
GERN 70000 shares
IART 4700 sh
Cash 1441
Buy IART @ $29.10
Buy 4700 IART @ $29.10 = $136,770
Sell ELTK @ $10.76
Sell 12700 ELTK @$10.76 = $136,652
abh- FOR
Nice dd !