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Anyone have a watchlist of earnings anticipation stocks for the next 10 weeks?
Thanks for keeping up the free posts here and the educational info. I'm still paper trading while raising capital to re-enter at some point. I've been doing great with paper trading swing longs at very very carefully selected points where the market is at support or looking like a reversal. That's where I've selected some quiet stocks about 2 or 3 weeks ahead of earnings where also the comparison chart of the industry and sub-industry is also looking like a support and reversal area. And of course the stock is at a similar pattern, but not specifically adhearing to an 'offcial' set-up.
Also I've been looking for clues for the additional evidence for my selections in sector rotation. My question is, How frequently are the sector rotations turning lately, is it an overnight, weekly, few days, or midday reversal? And secondly, don't you always find some segment rising even when the entire maket is falling because the liqufication of securities ends up with cash flowing back in somewhere?
I think there may be a few like me who are still lurking and learning. Keep it up! - J.
Wow, interesting market. Too bad for the investors.
This went up nice since earnings day, but too low volume usually, SNHY.
Here's another acting nicely, decent vol, a day before and since earnings, GYMB.
What's the best research for homework on sector rotation? IBD, WSJ, TA on the indexes and Worden groups and ETF's?
As far as volume accumulation, is that to be found on the ETF's or the top stocks in the sector? Wondering where to look.
Hey Jenna, can you say a little about how we can get a heads up on sector rotation? -J.
Now I see why so swings, except for options. Must drive 'investors' crazy, and managers too, i guess.
I remember that. It caught me off guard after that crazy everything-goes-up period, a.k.a just-go-long. But for me, that's when I started learning, or rather learning wrong, the markets. So it took me these few years to adjust to a more normal environment. Starting back in 98 could really mess with your head. Glad you are still here to learn from. It was expensive for me, but I'll get back in eventually with a better understanding.
You know how to find the volatility. That's a less stressful way to trade. No reason to wrap one's ego up into having to 'belive' in one direction or another. Seems there are too many variables to compute for general market direction, but far fewer to contend with for your earnings plays.
Hey Jenna, Glad to see you here and on new service.
I went for some Oct 30 QQQ Puts the start of Sept. as it looked like a steep move up there at $34 and after a number of up waves, a fairly large distance up from averages, 4 weeks almost straight line up, possible exhaustion, top of channel, and other reasons like earnings coming.
I normally would strangle and allow for profit on either side, but this time around I was a bit more bearish. Anyway, not much volatility and that's bad for strangles, so I actually saved by being on one side and not losing on both sides.
What do you make of the way this recent (since mid April) upswing seems to have V troughs and rounded peaks? On the one hand the bottoms come up fast - opportunities seen by buyers, on the other hand, there's a supply at the tops and the pauses are longer at the supply?
BMET rising a month before report?
Glad to see the thread going strong.
Do you think smaller traders/investors have given it up to watch the news lately?
Thanks, I realized the 'change' fields are just wrong on the quote grid in Datek, but the prices are correct. I'll just have to track the price changes myself, I look at em every day anyway....
QQQ down and so are puts. What's up with that?
down here suddenly at 11:15 News?
Isn't it funny, how there were so many average people attracted to trading/day trading back when the trend was up, yet now that the trend is just as strong, but down, many of them are gone? It takes some studying and knowledge to get into trading at all, so why did they leave if it only takes a little bit more to trade a downtrend? I had some of that downward-trend-profit-mental block also. But look at that mountain of a chart. People like to ski down a slope even more than riding up the lift, right? So what's the bug about trading down the slope? For me, the 'party' seemed over, and there's a bit of a downer to that. And it took me way to long to get over it and see what Jenna saw right away. Now I look at that sick downward trend and ask myself why I wasn't buying puts all the way down. I could have really cleaned up. If anything, I learned from it...slowly.
Nasdaq 1000 anyone?
That was one long down swing. I figured we were due some minor rally, longer than an hour. Don't we need a 3-day? That would really get me buying puts again. I feel a bit like I did going long Feb. 2000, the this-can't-last-forever feeling. But there's so much missing for a meaningful rally, that 'down' makes sense. But then there's the other case, sideways. I can't get 400% on put/call if we go flat. So I guess that is the Q: Still more volatility?
Hey Lee, I closed my QQQ put Friday, could have held but only for a little more anyway. I did however, hold on to the MWD calls and today, first time yet, in the money Oct 30. Jenna said beef weren't over and she was right. Yikes. Hey, that's a quadruple !!
Morgan still Mooing Q's in money again, but time is running out for October puts to come thru for me. Beef continues, I got into really low puts - 30 instead of more expensive 35's.... Same with Q's .50 is a nice price, but hard to triple sometimes....
Agrarian references appreciated in a high-tech world. Rather Pythonesc. (Monty)
Fed rally? My QQQ Oct 21 put now in the money.
Lee, so true. It's taken me 5 years to start to get it right. After trying other ways that do work for others, I had to be flexible enough to adapt them all to my own unique personality/psychological idiosyncracies. (Just short of calling myself pathological) I can't trade stock, for example. Too much anxiety, I need options to hold me back and help me structure a time frame and a plan. Like I need to keep a job, so I can eat 3 meals and drink water.... btw, your posts have been so normal lately, are you ok? :)
reverse chart titles, right? (MWD message) I'm still holding puts. I used to over trade, the options are making me stop and watch, but it's not easy for my disposition.... Since they move small amounts per day and less intraday, with small number of contracts, you have to sit back, and you know you have a time frame to do it in.
MWD is the beef over? I still have puts Oct 30 up 110%
BBY seems to be only gap still trying to hold on right at the 20. MWD gap & crap and lower too.
MWD reports this week and other brokerages. Can we expect some volatility out of this group?
Good one. I want a hot tub too, can I be a Lifestyle Correspondent?
I know someone who never got her money into the market at all and her 401k is in CD's. I called her fearful, but she's doing good now and didn't risk, but didn't loose either, but also, she did no work at it and had no worries or stress over her accounts. Now I see that as an ok option, a fine way to go, in hindsight.
Their building looks stable. Passed it every day for 8 months. There's my fundamental analysis. :)
Yes, nice price, but it looks like it was about a buck Jan. '01?
Thanks, I guess it's reliable enough.
Good to have that general down trend, but we just
had a higher low with a lower high, so not as
clear this week.
Here is the post 10:30 am after-the-rally fade, just
as you've been calling it.
At the moment, Datek shows Oct 45 ROOM put volume at 11 and open int at 1440. Anywhere near accurate?
Options are so relaxing. No worries,
no pagers with quotes every 5 15 30 whatever minutes,
You get like, 5 weeks, can even take vacation.
Strangle, and up/down, doesn't matter...
Which reminds me.... I was on a trip and in the
room was cable and on a channel was an infomercial
on "Spread Trading," or something like that....
10 CDROMs and 6 books, you get a whole 30 days to
try it out! 10 CDROMs can hold an encyclopedia....
You need 30 months, anyway they never mentioned options
but what else could it be if they claimed that the
direction of the market didn't matter. It has to
be options spread, straddle or strangle....
Were they (ROOM options) hard to get?
On Datek I see low volume and
low open interest. Not sure if it's showing the whole
market in options. Many seem to have low vol. & op. int.
got qqq oct 21 put at peak on 11th, doing well until
this 10:30 high. Still have call too.
Possible Patriotic Rally for the 11th?
Even if it happens, it won't help things much
in the long run.
Pop got Oct 25 QQQ call for a first try at
options. Got Friday at .70
Looking for volatility down here at the lows.
Strong stuff Jenna, but true. Pop just told me
Mom has (had?) an IRA of 8,000 now worth 2,000,
they didn't tell me soon enough, oh well...
saw 3 QQQ peaks shortable since Jen mentioned
it's still possible to short em. But technically
it looked soooo low.... I didn't do it, and couldn't
convince Pop to do it, he's too market scarred to
make any moves. Q's made nice smooth candles too,
right up at resistance and looks about to break down
past the base. I don't know about a short now, but
maybe wait for a relief rally?
Mr. Levitt, what's the significance of the Enron scandal and collapse for the markets as a whole? Is this just a group of bad guys who broke the law maybe in one company? Or is this symptomatic of something larger?
I think the Enron scandal is symptomatic of something much broader than Enron. I think it's symptomatic of a breakdown of the ethical values of business over a period of perhaps 20 years, a gradual erosion of business ethics that brought us to an Enron, but might very well bring us to a whole host of Enrons as we move down the road.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/regulation/interviews/levitt.html
Frontline: Bigger Than Enron
Frontline a must see on Options accounting. Wow, I really didn't know this was happening, did you? Now I'm not even so sure that tech and internet even had much to do with the huge 99,00 rally, but just the lure to abuse accounting for giant options gains. And they pick on Martha?
Smiling thru Your "subtle" message with it's carefully chosen words. I like it. : )
That's an easy question, just look.
http://www.pristine.com/rates.htm
Also glad to see you back. I always thought this was
a good combination, a free highlight/update service and
a more intense subscription one. Especially good for
those of us following along trading lightly, or on the
sidelines for some reason. This way we don't loose
touch and still learn and have a door to go deeper.
And a place to refer others. Keep doing what you
do best; love those charts!
I've come a long way. I really learned and it cost me. The info was great, you did a lot of work, got me into the Pristine way. Thanks for keeping up the free access as long as you did, I was surprised it lasted this long.
Blue collar work isn't so bad after all. See recent Newsweek article about a guy who made the change also.
It'll be years before I amass the amount needed to trade again, so I'll be handicapping the thoroughbreds for a while until I pay bills accumulated when I was a white collar worker. Now I and my other former computer career guys at my new blue collar job have the same stories to tell. At least we're not alone.