Who wants to check my math? First, let me say that I am as green as they come when it comes to trading. I am just your average corporate soccer dad trying to get a kid through college. I am not a basher in any way, just a guy trying to figure out this addictive and dangerous game. I went all in with FITX last month and have flipped it a couple times to increase share count, but have had full intention of being long; however, I may be getting cold feet.
I made efforts to learn how a fair pps is determined. I know pennyland is it's own animal in the investing world, but I have tried applying fundamentals that I may or may not understand. Help me out if you want to comment. Check out my math and speculative projections and let me know if I am way off track in your opinion. These are my calculations.
100,000 MM Patients by 2015
FITX Market Share 20% - I feel that is generous considering I haven't seen solid proof of a stellar FITX branding or marketing team and there could be 12+ licensed suppliers by then.
2015 FITX Patients at 20% market share = 20,000
Average Grams/day per Patient = 2 (I feel this is also generous)
2015 projected grams sold = 14,600,000
2015 Revenue @ $8/gram = 116,800,000
2015 Revenue @ 75% Gross Profit = $87,600,000
25% (21,900,000) to PHOT = $65,700,000 Net Revenue
$65,700,000 / 3,500,000,000 shares = .019 Earnings per Share
P/E Ratio of 30 = .57 PPS
Is .57 to da moon? I would guess that it will rise above .57 in the early days, but by the end of 2015 where will it sit? Any input would be greatly appreciated.