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Here are the facts..
I bought stock Dec 03 under they symbol MSIT. The stock was trading OTC BB (real time quotes). During Jan the stock gained a little. In Feb it went up more. Finally late Feb-early March it topped at 0.019. MSIT at that time dropped off of the the OTC BB and the symbol changed to MSITF. The stock dropped sub-penny within 2 months.
What pisses me off is that I have been talking with Robert Talbot regularly from then until now (8 times), and he has never responded to questions I put to him truthfully. He has always been vague and evasive when discussing financial information. He has never been able to supply even one answer about how many kits were shipped relative to any single press release. Every time he has commited to an answer it has proven to be a lie (over time). Do I trust him? No.
I still own a bunch of this stock. I don't want to loose on this investment (just like you). But in the last year and a half, all I have been able to verify is that Talbot has a pump and dump philosophy towards MSITF stock; which means a press release followed by a stock surge and a negative price direction. Last month RT told me 2.1B out, Island says 2.9.
What information has RT given you that he hasn't given me? I think that potiential investors need to be made aware of the mentality MSITF management has, that's why I pan this stock. In the long run I think that we are all going to eat it on this one.
The answer to your question is
The penalty for for a company that intentionally misleads investors or participates in unethical practices is subject to a stop-trading order by regulators.
That happened to MSIT in Canada and that's why their stock (or any company run by RT) is no longer allowed to trade in Canada. Last year MSIT briefly traded on the OTC BB. When they refused to comply with information disclosure rules the symbol was changed to MSITF and is no longer carried on the OTC BB. So the only place you can find MSITF listed is on the Pink Sheets.
Complaints have been filed with the SEC against MSITF. If the regulators decide that the company has mislead investors a stop trading order may be issued for the U.S. also.
Who knows what exchange RT will move to next. Who knows if you'll be trying to sell your shares in Asia or Africa.
3Billion heading for 4?
Tell me that MR Talbot isn't planning on dumping another billion shares? He's enlisted help to "pump" up the volume instead of publishing financials. He knows where to put the money.
Some Words Of Caution
I just want to relate some of my personal experiences with Robert Talbot. Last June I called him and talked to him about the 2003 financials that they had just released. He told me that the 04 financials would be out by August. In August I called him and asked him when the 04 financials would be out, he said in September. In Setember I called him and asked him when 04 financials would be out, he said November. In February I called him and asked him when the 04 financials would be out, he said "very soon".
This guy is a liar. I think that much of the good PR is true about the company, but I believe that Mr Talbot is going to implement a reverse split as soon as he is ready to get back on a real time exchange, (without getting on a real-time exchange this stock isn't going nowhere). He did a reverse split in 2001 and the Canadian exchange kicked his butt off of the ontario exchange because of his stock management practices. This is just history which anyone can find out about (clearstation.com/SEDAR).
What this means to the general investor is that sooner or later you will have 1/15 your investment and if Talbot decides to issue stock under the Minerva company shell, the investors many not even have that. Minerva is manufacturing the kits in China so the stage is already set for his next move.
So what do you do? I've filed a complaint with the SEC. I don't plan on buying any more MSITF stock. I recommend that you conduct further research on Talbot before you do.
I'm still in, a lot of activity over the last few days.
Silk Purse or a Sows Ear?
I talked to a rep at their PR firm. He said that MSITF has 2.1B shares out right now. He didn't seem to know much about anything, now I know why Talbot hired them.
However, I think that some of the recent posters on this web site assume that MSITF is more then it is, a long shot.
MSITF is a small company with few funds, few permanent employees, & struggling for survival. Talbot has been trying to make a go of these products for a very long time and now he may be making some head-way.
I have confirmed independently that MSITF has been approved in China (Watsons is selling their products in China) & Peru (one of the testers in the government responed to an e-mail).
My conclusion is that most of their PR is true, but MSITF is a long way from proving itself as a viable company. The HIV products are out there and being shipped, that's only the first step.
Talbot has a slippery history with issuing stock then conducting reverse splits (2001); there may be more shares out then what is being disclosed, it may take six more months for MSITF to publish financials, what are you going to do?
I wouldn't buy any of their stock right now, but by the same token I wouldn't dump what I do have.
Investors Are Scared Of This One
No audited financials in 2 years and a hazy history of both the management and the company makes this a very high risk.
The upside is tremendous, they will report at least 25M in sales with an unrelated cost of goods in 04 (by June). The PE may bring the valuation above 0.10 per share very quickly once financials are published. The $25M cash with $25M backlog is a great boost to starting fiscal 05 (July). This should dispell the negative image Medical Services has gained to this point.
I talked to Robert T. yesterday. He's trying to make the delivery of the financials as profitable to investors as possible. I hope that he accomplishes his goal.
P/E
PE is calculated on net rather then gross earnings so if MS has gross earnings of .0047/share you could guess that the net should be around .004 worst case (they should have a ton of write-offs).
(Todays close .0033) /(.004 net earnings/share) = a PE of 0.825. Nasdaq.com places the industy average at a PE of 18.5. (18.5 x .0033)/.825 = 0.074 per share as a fair valuation when MS reports gross earnings of .0047/share.
Nothing speaks louder then confirmed orders. It looks like more are on the way.
You need to call RT & ask him yourself, or don't you have the balls? My question to him was what is the # of shares OS right now. He said 2B.
Do you have facts that indicates otherwise? If so share it with the rest of us and tell us what your source is.
You need to call RT & ask him yourself, or don't you have the balls? My question to him was what is the # of shares OS right now. He said 2B.
Do you have facts that indicates otherwise? If so share it with the rest of us and tell us what your source is.
P/E & Price Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth (per Nasdaq.com) for the industry MS is in is 22.17. Last Mar MS posted earnings per share of .0001. If MS makes $5M net (or .0025/share) their earings growth will be 25. In-line or slightly above the industry.
P/E
Price per Earnings (at $5M net) is .004/.0025 = 1.5. The industry has an average PE of 18.45. So fully valued with a PE ratio of 18.45 the stock price of MSITF would be .046 per share. For the investor this means an 11.5 times increase in value.
How likely is it that MSITF will net $5M between Jun 05 & June 06? Todays news stated that they have income from confirmed and audited contracts that will net $4.3M gross (before taxes) profit during that period. And that doesn't include income from other products, or income from distribution in China, nor income from outside of China on any products. So I would say that the likelyhood is pretty good.
Check my numbers...any comments
Shares outstanding ~ 2B. Talked to RT yesterday and this is the number he gace to me.
Timing is everything. If you had bought 1,000,000 shares MSITF yesterday at .0036 and sold it today at .0049, you would have made $1300 or 26% in one day. Are you unhappy because you didn't see the opportunity or are you unhappy because you didn't take advantage of it. You can't do much better than 26% in one day. Money is indifferent to "good" and "bad" companies. 36M shares traded today, I guess that some of them weren't yours.
LOOK AT THIS AS THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG, I WOULD SAY THAT THIS IS THE OPPOSITE OF SLIM, I WOULD SAY THIS IS HUGE. IT CONFIRMS THAT THE PR RELEASED BY MSIT UP UNTIL NOW IS FACT AND THAT THEY ARE IN A GREAT GROWTH POSITION.
THE $2.11/KIT IS THE PRICE THE GOVERNMENT IN CHINA (OR ANY OTHER GOVERNMENT)GETS. THIS PRICE LEVEL WILL KEEP MOST COMPETITORS OUT OF THE PICTURE, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT IMPORT THEIR KITS AND HAVE TO PAY DUTY.
MSIT WILL "NET" APPROX $2M/YR ON THE $8.5 GROSS SALES (JUST ANNOUNCED TODAY) AFTER EXPENSES, (AND THIS IS ONLY ONE GOVERNMENT CONTRACT FOR ONE PRODUCT). 23% NET MARGIN IN MY OPINION IS VERY GOOD FOR A PRODUCT LIKE THIS.
OTHER GOVERNMENT CONTRACTS WILL BE PLACED AS DIFFERENT PROVINCES GENERATE REQUIREMENTS. ADD IN THE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN CHINA. ADD A FEW PRODUCT LINES ONCE THEY ARE APPROVED. THE UPSIDE IS PRETTY GOOD, AND THIS IS JUST ONE OF MANY COUNTRIES MSIT IS SELLING KITS TO.
I THINK THAT MSIT IS A GREAT LONG TERM PLAY AND THAT'S WHY I BOUGHT THEIR STOCK. ITS A FACT MSIT HAS ISSUES IN PRODUCING FINANCIALS, BUT I THINK THAT WHEN THEY DO THE NUMBERS WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO BOOST THE STOCK PRICE SIGNIFICANTLY.
Conversation with Talbot
Posting off of another site.....
I spoke with Mr. Robert Talbot on wednesday 2/23/05, and I asked him several questions that I had commented on a few weeks ago.
1. When will the P/R firm Start that he had mentioned in our previous conversation ?Answer, "2/28/05 Monday they will start, and there will be an offical announcement"
2. When Will the Year End Fin. Statement be Ready? Answer, "Very soon".
3. I asked about the differences between the MSITF products and a couple others that are out there? Answer, "most other kits require some refrigreation of the tests, and the V-Scan line does both HIV 1,& 2 and the other disease test kits function the same way.and MSITF is approved in countries that represent 48% of the worlds population"
4. The recently settled Lawsuit,what was that about? Answer, "It involved an early pay back of on a loan that they had on one of there proporties, there loan was for 13 years with the ability to pay it back sooner, they bought the facility in 1996 and paid it of early in 1998, the note holder sued for early payoff and the court ruled the MISTF was well within there contract rights to pay off early".
5. Will consolidation of the stock ever be and option? Answer, " As previously mentioned in our previousl phone call this will not happen as it hurts the small investor"
With the chinesse new year coming to a close a increase in productivity out of there china facilty will be very apparent, and things will start to change for the invstor.
I am an investor and I also run a construction company, I encourage anyone to call Mr. Talbot and discuss there interests, I have spoken to him 3 times since the first or the year, he is easy to talk to and informative.
Long on MSITF
Regards
Madmorgan8
MSITF & Watsons Pharmacies. As the latest news release stated MSITF has launched distribution through Watson Pharmacies. Watsons has 139 pharmacies in China. Watson has an agreement with Walmart (34 Superstores in China) to supply their pharmacies also. Watson has 720 personal care stores in 8 Asian countries, they have 20,000 people working for them.
HALIFAX, Jan. 5 /CNW/ - MedMira Inc., ("MedMira") (TSX Venture: MIR, NASDAQ:MMIRF......Ya right.
MMIRF. 0.52 two weeks ago 0.32 today. Do they have any orders from the government in China yet, or is it PR we are discussing?
ICMH : It looks like they finally got all their new products on their web site. I talked to Doug again and he said that the new year would bring news of finalized contracts and more info on their sales.
otterman, re technical analysis..
MSITF has a market cap of 6.6M with a projected sales of 8-12M in 05 (ratio 1.8). MED-X has a market cap of 19.8M with 05s sales projected between 4-6M (ratio .303). If MSITF were to have the same relative sales/market cap as MED-X, MSITFs stock price would be at 0.021 right now.
The target audience of MSIT is ASIA, INDIA, & AFRICA; not the US (as opposed to MED-X/FDA). Manufacturing has been set up in each of those countries whereas MED-X has to import their kits into those countries (which in itself is another issue).
The HIV kit in China for both MSIT & MED-X has competition. However, MSIT has the TB kit (to be formally approved in January in China) that will service the #1 disease in China and which does not have any competition at present. This is huge. MSIT also has a kit that will test for both HIV and TB.
Sooner or later the stock valuation will catch up to where it should be and I'll be there. Look at SIRI on the NASDAQ, it has a ratio of 0.006 (60M sales with a cap of 9.8B). Thats a ratio to dream of if only for a day. MED-X stock would be 50x of what it is now and MSITF 300x. Good PR goes a long way.
TALGADAR is no longer an active company, so the PR you see and the web site that is still active is not applicable. MSITF has developed distribution agreements with individual distributors in each country to market VSCAN.
Medmira: 27.7M common (nonvoting), 15M Preferred, 1.3M in outstanding warrants. Total sales less then 4M/yr. Better than 98% effective in testing process. Published financials and info saying that their product was placed #1 in China in the last few days. Stock at .53 as of this morning.
MSITF isn't the only competitor in China; true, but they did get the government orders based on the hospital test results of better than 99% accuracy. I don't see on their Medmiras web site where they have any orders from the government in China. How can Medmiras results of 98% place them higher then MSITFs 99%? MSITFs initial orders in China totaled more than Medmira sold world wide last year. Something smells in China.
MSITF's management obviously lacks nimbleness. I guess that only time will tell. Which one do you think has a greater up side?
I wanted to see who was pumping and dumping the stock price so I subscribed to Alphatrade and here's what it looks like. The market makers at SCHB & NITE are buying and selling to themselves driving the price down and accumilating the stocks at a lower price from panicked sellers at GVRC (.0058). It looks like everyone else is still sitting on the side lines (at .0075 and higher). Good job SCHB! I hope you make a million.
The news today didn't mention that the projections were for the fiscal year (which they are). So the 6M starting number is for the fiscal year from Jun 04 to Jun 05. And than number is only going to go up as we get later into the fiscal year.
MSITF. We know that the company is the "worth something" because several countries have already approved their product (India, Nigeria, etc.) and orders are being filled. The big approval will be SDA in China because of the present backlog and the piggy-back approval of their TB kits.
How much is MSIT worth?
Right now, if there is 2B shares out at .01 per share it's worth 20M. Most pharma companies have more than that in their petty cash accounts. A company looking to expand into world wide product distribution (that isn't already there) can pick up a product line, approvals, and distribution connections for bargin-basement prices.
I'm surprised it didn't happen when the stock price was .002.
MSITF. The India approval (to me) is just another indicator that MSIT is the real deal. You can make any argument you want about the management and what they did or didn't do, but the reality is that MSIT is collecting approvals, and with approvals SALES.
I talked to Bob last week. He's gun-shy about announcing info on SDA approval, not because there's any problems in the approval process but because investors have given him a rash of shit on SDA approval being later then what China had indicated to him.
Because of the huge shipment back log awaiting SDA approval the financials are also stalled.
So what are you going to do? The faint hearted will bail out. The bashers will bash away, the market makers will pump and dump, and I'll sit back (with most of you out there) and watch. I have the time.
ICMH. Talked to Doug this morning. He said that they have issued their domestic "Secured Cash" debit card and are now finalizing their "gkard" international Visa/payroll card contracts.
All the information about their products is on their web site. The group at ICMH has been working very hard on the launch of the products and Doug admits that improving the stock price has not been a focus.
Its just my opinion but having talked with Doug several times, I think this stock is "a little giant" because of the very low buy-in price now.
Give Doug a call or email him and see if you don't agree.
MSITF. Talked to Bob again today, they have two people that will be meeting with the SDA this week regarding status on their final approval. He reaffirmed that the company was shipping a "ton" of kits from their 3 manufacturing sites and that they were working on the financials due out later this month.
The clock has started ticking once again. Talked to Doug today and he said that they got the cards in and were processing everything. He said that they we hoping to have a news release out by the week of 11/15. Somebody must know something, the stock jumped 70% today.
I've been holding this stock since last year at this time, it looks like its coming back to life. I like Doug, every time I've talked to him he's given me a straight answer on the companys' status. I think that they will be back on track by the end of the year.
kenser80. Talked to Bill again today. He confirmed pretty much what we already know and what I had mentioned in my earlier postings. The Malaysia orders were for revenue and were not for evaluation, just as were the ones that went to Indonesia and the first 50,000 kits beings sent out to distribution in China. From what I can gather from talking to Bob & Bill MSIT is generating revenue and growing sales. Can't ask for much more than that.
tta. Good luck. I think that your move was a bit impetuous but you got-to-do what you think you need to. If you don't have very many shares, capital gains probably wasn't an issue.
Talked to Bob again this morning. He said they are shipping a "ton" of kits right now outside of Asia. He said that we would have to wait until financials were published for the numbers. They are working on the financials now and will have them out in November.
They shipped 1500 Denge Fever kits (last news release) though they didn't mention the qty in the news release.
On the SDA approval, he said we will know as soon as they know. He said that there is no hocus-pocus going either on the part of MSIT or the SDA.
I asked him why their statements always said that their kits cannot be sold in Canada. He said that MSIT did not target North America as a primary market (did not apply in Canada). Their marketing resources were focused on ASIA, South & Central America, Africa, India & the Middle East. He feels early detection and shelf storage advantages outdistance their
competition.
My take on the conversation was that things are "rockin" at MSIT and they are doing all they can to make more things happen. The fact that the SDA is dragging their feet doesn't make anyone comfortable. But that's just the way it is for now.
I think that this is a little company that will do well down the road. Anybody out there agree?
holms
tta. A stock buy back is a healthy approach to boosting the stock price. Like I said earlier, at a sales of $40M/yr (MS%), i.e. 20M kits/yr@$4 per, I see the stock value to be around 0.16. A stock buy back announced any time after the 04 financials are released (Nov) would encourage investors to hold the stock knowing that increasing revenues would decrease total shares out, thus increasing each individuals holdings by percentage. That coupled with the one year capital gains incentive would make holing this stock for more then a year quite attractive (especially at the price it is now). The booked orders at the time of announcement would confirm the reality of any projections.
I don't think anyone will know what is going on until the 04 financials come out. I have been accumilating MedSvc stock over the last year. I like the products and the people running the company (though Bob can be a bit grumpy at times).
You seem to have an inside track view on this one, where did you get the buy back info?
Your 5-10 cent target is more in line with the general concensus I agree, but from habit I have become very conservative. Several people I have talked to agree with your projection, but the inability to access "real time" trading price and volume numbers has also spooked some of those same people. The "not real-time" factor is an intangible element that (I believe) has taken the steam out of a run up before SDA approval. Do you agree?
On your subject of a stock buy back, however, I am uncertain. I have tracked 2 companies in the last year that had become highly capitalized (greater than 1B shares), PRIM (now PMHJ) and VLVT (now VLXC). Both companies have reorganized and started generating sales (and doing quite well at it). Going forward they both look like excellent investments. However, they both did a reverse 100 to 1 stock split to get back up to a realistic capitilization level (less then .5B shares). Now a reverse split isn't always a bad thing but in both cases a knee jerk panic was created causing a sell off and corresponding drop in stock value short term.
Bob T did say that there was not going to be a reverse split in a phone conversation with me. He didn't want to say anything more then that for now. A stock buy back of 1.5B would be $75M at a share cost of .05. Where would the $ come from to do that? What are your thoughts?
To date MSITF has approx 2.7M kit orders on the books (HIV + TB combined)in Asia. From the 8/30 news release you can figure $2.12 is the average kit sale price ($3.4M/1.6M orders). That makes the gross booked orders so far worth $5.7M.
Outside of Asia no total numbers have been released yet but they have been approved in several countries and are presently shipping.
Orasure (OSUR) sells HIV kits in the US. They sell $40M a year with a stock price around $6.50 (45M shares out). If you compare market cap and sales of MSITF to OSUR, at $10M sales per year (1,900M shares out)the MSITF stock would be at .04 (instead of .0045). So for those that plan to stay in for a while this should be a pretty exciting time over the next year. With $5.7M booked prior to approval, getting to $10M (in Asia alone) by the middle of next year should be a very conservative expectation.
What do you think?
Much of the information listed below is published in news releases, however, I phoned both the Pres & CFO of MSITF and confirmed the following.
Approval for HIV and TB kits in China due by 9/28. 1.4 M orders on books for HIV kits in China alone ($3.5M revenue). Production facility in China set up and approved. Distribution network in China set up with additional 200K orders for kits. Testing in US completed on HIV kits, FDA paper work being prepared now and will be submitted in November (even though the US market is not a primary target market). Testing results look good, no false positives. FDA approval within 90 days of paperwork submission (late Feb 05). 2004 financials due in November, said to look good. The "most promising" aspect for income growth of MSITF is the TB kit which has no competition in China, 9-13 news confirmed that the use of the TB kit was expanding to more hospitals in China.
I have owned this stock for almost a year. I am impressed that the Pres and CFO of MSITF make themselves available to answer the phone calls of investors. I suggest that should any of the people on this board have concerns unanswered by news releases, that they should give them a call.
If you find out anything we don't already know, please post it. Thank You all.