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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Good post about Richard Russell. He's been around and he's seen this before. The only place for "serious" non-trading money is T-notes and T-Bills.
Lane: It ain't the news, be it good or bad...it's how the market reacts to the news.
Steel Guy: It's a bit of a dirty business. I just ignore most analysts and whatever they say. They have their job, but what they do is of little value for me.
Steel Guy: I think your feelings about analysts are somewhat harsah, though I understand your anger. I think that many analysts just got lazy; too many years of not really having to
work hard. Companies too often told 'em what was coming, offered "guidance"; did their work for them and made them Street "stars." Those days are over, and now many of them are paying the price. But there are some fine analysts who can trake apart an income statement, balance sheet, ask tough questions and come up with a decent analysis of the company and it's prospects and probable earnings and not concern themselves with the stock or price targets.
Lane: The Motorola CEO & Chairman's statement sounds a bit suspicious to me. He seems to be blaming the woeful U.S. economy and the high-tech recession for his firm's problems. This may well be true, but I'd prefer that he said simply that "our business is rather poor now, we'll have to get through it, we will get through it...and then our business will pick up and our earnings will improve. Unfortunately I can't say just when this will occur, but occur it will." Let's see how the stock does. I saw that it was down about 90 cents at one point after hours today. A final thought: MOT and it's sectpr may not do well, but that doesn't necessarily preclude a robust bear market rally.
Nice to see you here John. It's remarkable how the professionals and serious students/traders are drawn together as if pulled by a magnet.
Nice post. Keep in mind that it's not merely the (poor) earnings that are likely to come...but the market's reaction. If MOT comes in with poor earnings and the stock doesn't drop...well, that tells you something.
I fully agree with your contention that RS is critical for identifying strong and weak stocks. Where do you get the RS rankings? IBD and Bill O'Neill? Keep those RS lists coming.
Hi Reid: Yes, the speed is fine. Only thing missing is the ability to edit.
Jenna: All you say about Qcharts is true; they are miserably managed. But when they work they are quite good. I reiterate: download their 4.1 beta version. With but one interruption this past weekend the beta has been very reliable.
Jenna: The 4.1 beta version Qcharts were mahvelous for a couple of weeeks..then kablooie. An e-mail to Qcharts typically takes 2-3 weeks for a response. If I can't get up and running early this morning with Qcharts (they told me I have no account!) I shall try e-signal. Qcharts states that new accounts (yup, I signed up again yesterdauy) will be operative the next business day.
Despite efforts Herculean I am still without Qcharts. Must I stay up all night getting 'em to do my bidding. I try to log on and I keep getting "Logon failed....would you like to try again or cancel." Any help would be greatly appreciated.
nboneed: I see now that both you and Greenhugh are keeping tabs on the Fed. I think my dubbing of Greenhugh as "Fed Watcher" may have been a bit precipitous. Looks like you two may have to joust it out...or better yet, keep posting what you learn about the Fed. We shall keep the "dubbing" and "knighthood" honors in abbeyance for the nonce. The gauntlet has clearly been thrown and may the best man prevail.
Greenhugh: Good post. I dub thee Fed Watcher.
Reid: Two cents? I'd say more like 20,000 cents.
I just read Jaguar 20's, (Fred) last post about Reid. It takes no wizard that the comments about Reid are on the money. Perhaps Reid would take a free-trial in Pristine's intermediate trading room where Jenna resides during the day. I'm not seeking new members, just a good trader... which Reid appears to be.
Reid: Thanks for your post. I'm not an expert on candlesticks, though I do use them with bar charts and of course on the dinner table. One thing I forget to mention; I also look at the sectors...the weekly and daily sector charts give me a nice sense of the major trend. One recent sector that we noted was the broker/dealer sector....hence the MER and LEH shorts.
Lee.
Reid: Whenever I contemplate a trade I look at the weekly and daily charts...to get a sense of the major trend. Then I go to the 60 and 15 minute charts. And for entry I look at the 5 and 2 minute charts. Fundamentals are importnant, but have little import for an intra-day trade. And of course I/we in the Traading Room always look at the futures, to get a read on the market internls and to look for a trend; best to go with the trend....so sense swimming against the current, i.e., trading against the trend.
Reid: Nice to know you'll post occasionally. This thread, as with every thread initiated by Jenna....attracts the best.
Reid: Fine post. Lee
Techno Futurist: I find your post rather curious. Shorters are no more greedy than longs; both groups, (and the long bulls FAR outnumber the short bears) trade with the notion that if they are right...they'll make a profit. Last time I looked, businesses are in business to do the same. "Shorting is no more than selfishness"...another curious contention. Are you suggesting that those who espouse the long side are not as selfish? Greed and selfishnes are rather inflammatory words. I do agree with your thought that there has been some inappropriate behavior by some bears...but the same can be said of far more bulls. It sedems that you are blaming this bear market on the shorters. I can't buy that argument. A final thought; today's "shorter" is tomorrow's buyer. I hope you do well. Lee
I’ve been working with Jenna in the trading room for two months now, which is why I don’t post on this thread as often as I used to and would like to. I’d like to tell you about those two months: At first I was honored that Jenna asked me to help. And then I was very nervous. Would I be of help? Would I know what the heck I was doing? Sure, I’m a pretty fair trader, but I’d never done any moderating before. The night before I was to begin I didn’t get too much sleep. But it’s been ok. More than ok. It’s been interesting and often exciting. And I think it’s fair to say that we’ve done well for the traders. For the most part we’ve done well on the short side and we even sniffed out the late Thursday rally before it began, covered the shorts, went long and did pretty well Friday too. The traders in the room range from aggressive traders who are in and out maybe 6-10 times a day…to the far less aggressive who trade perhaps once or twice a day or once every couple of days. It’s hard to know who’s doing what since some traders post every move they make while others don’t. I’m going to offer a suggestion, but before I do I want you to know that I’m not employed by Pristine; I’m simply helping Jenna. I don’t work on commission or incentive or anything else. I derive no benefit from what I’m about to propose. Here is my suggestion: Try the room on a free-trial basis. Observe; make a trade or two if you see something you like. Then decide if a trade or two or five over the course of a month will cover the cost of subscribing and provide you with a nice profit too. It’s really a no-lose play; either it works for you or it doesn’t. And, if you do subscribe, (and I suggest you do it on a monthly basis) and find that it’s not to your liking…cancel. Again, I offer this idea because I sense it will be of benefit to some of you. Lee.
"Goldman said the Fed....would have to lower Fed Funds rate to 3-4% to revitalize the economy." Indeed. We've had three rate cuts of 50 basis points each in the past three months. On the first rate cut I went out a immediately bought a new yacht. One the second I bought a summer mansion on Matha's Vineyard. And this past week, when I saw another 50 basis point cut I made arrangements to acquire the entire state of Rhode Island. Hell, if they keep cutting, I'll keep buying. Sure.
DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes 3/24/01
I walked into Doc Kronkite’s office five minutes early with a bounce in my step, a smile on my face and a blueberry muffin in my pocket. Doc’s receptionist, the alluringly lovely Miss Tushbumper returned the smile, the smile I was certain she kept in reserve all week just for me, then she turned her porcelain face a touch so I could plant a wet smacker on her cheek. An innocent ritual, like two old friends shaking hands, but a major fantasy that could lead who knew where, in my mushy mind.
“Doctor will be with you directly,” she cooed.
“No rush.” I answered. No rush indeed.
Too soon the buzzer sounded. Miss Tushbumper pressed the intercom button and I heard “Send in the clone.” Doc was a major-league malapropist. What he meant of course was “Send in the clown.” Mmm.
Doc wiped the smile off my face faster than Superman could change from a mild-mannered reporter to the man of steel.
“Today’s the day,” said doc Kronkite, pulling hard at his Mel-Brooks like hair.
“The day? What day?” I asked, nervously.
“The day for your annual check-up.” Doc said.
“But doc, I had my last physical exam just last month,” I cried.
“No dunderhead. Not a physical checkup, a mental checkup.”
“Oh. Is it really necessary? I feel pretty good in the noggin.”
“We shall see. Now assume the position.”
I eased my now trembling body onto his lumpy couch.
“As you know, I’ve had some recent troubles in the market,” said the doc. “So I’ve decided to consult a fortune-teller.”
Somewhat taken aback I said “Doc, why not seek out a market analyst for help? Or even a CNBC expert? That would be a happy medium.”
“That would be rare, but I might just take your advice,” he said.
“Well done,” I replied.
“First though, before we begin the test,” he continued, “talk on me about your trading week.”
“Golly doc, it was terrific. The DOW broke on Tuesday and we went short. It continued on Wednesday and Thursday until about 2:15. We sniffed out a rally, covered our shorts, and went long. Terrific rally late Thursday that carried over into Friday.”
“So a new bull market we’ve got?” asked the doc excitedly.
“No doc, so far it’s just a rally within the bear market.”
“So what did you short? I’m becoming a specialist on selling short you know.”
“I know doc. Well, we caught the bio’s when they cracked, AMGN and GENZ and ENZN. And we shorted the brokers and then IFIN and CAH. Did ok doc. Then we went long ADBE, ADVP and a few others.”
“Ok, enough with this cutterbup banter,” he said. He meant buttercup of course. “On with the test.”
“Gee doc, do we really have to? I don’t like being tested. Tests give me a bad case of hives and a severe case of locked bowels. Can’t we do it next week?” I pleaded.
“Absolutely not. You didn’t get to the top of the trading game without ten years of analysis with me. This annual test is critical to your continued success. I’m a specialist in test-giving you know.”
“I know doc.”
“First question: You’re given the option of making love to Britney Spears or daytrading. What do you do?”
“Gee, doc. Couldn’t you start me off with an easy one?”
“That was the easy one. Answer please, you have five more seconds.”
“Doc, I’d choose daytrading.”
“Wrong, very wrong. I knew your were batty in the belfry, but not this cuckoo.” he said, shaking his head while making a violent slash with his pen.
“Next question: You’re on the way to the movies. They have ten screens. Do you choose “Wall Street”, “Trading Places” or” My Dinner With Andre?”
“That’s an easy one doc. I’d get a jumbo box of popcorn and see “Wall Street.”
“ Wrong again.” Another slash of the pen.
“Next question: You’re one of the members of the TV show Survivor, the test of man against nature filmed in the Australian outback. A contest is about to begin, the winner can choose an evening alone with the woman of your choice, a bottle of Lafitte Rothschild ’79, a CD player with Santana, Aerosmith, Dylan and Harry Connick Jr. CD’s or a computer with a direct link to the exchanges for the duration of your stay.”
“The computer doc. Absolutely. The computer.”
“You are now ‘ought for three.” Another violent slash.
“Doc, can we do this next week? I guess I need to study. Anything I can do to earn extra credit? I asked hopefully.
“No. You’ve flunked. After ten years of deep analysis you have failed. Actually, it is I who have failed you. I thought you were ready to fly from my nest. This test confirms that several more years of analysis are in order. Perhaps we shall begin again with more kryptonizing.” He meant hypnotizing.
“I devoted an entire chapter on kryptonizing in my book, “The Truss: Friend or Foe” a best seller at only $59.95. Read on it, read.”
“I will doc, I’ll mesmorize it. Commit it to memory even. And doc?”
“Yes?”
“Thanks. I see now that I’m in dire need of your continued help.”
“That’s quite alright. Did I tell you I’m a specialist? See miss Tusbumper on the way out. Make appointments, lots of appointments.”
“I will doc. I want to be a good trader. Guess I just got lucky this week huh?”
“Luck is the residue of hard and lengthy psychiatric analysis with a specialist. Did I mention I’m a specialist?”
“I think so. Ok doc, see you next week.”
Lee Kramer
DAYTRADING: "The Highs and the Woes" resumes here tomorrow, Saturday.
Great new site Jenna. Dortmunder's gonna love it here.