mr_market 63: I pulled up a weekly/daily chart of ODFL. It looks higher to me. What I like most is that it is in new all-time high ground: no overhead supply, read: unhappy holders looking to unload every time it moves up a bit. Everyone who owns the stock is smiling, because they're all making money. And folks tend to hang onto what makes 'em happy. Sure, there will be occasional bouts of taking profits, and the stock will likely back off at times. But the float is quite low and it won't take much volume to move it higher. No guarantees, but I like the long side probabilities.

Hi Augie: Now that I have jettisoned Max Pain...sounds like the answer to a Jeopardy question. The category is 'Famous Hollywood Names' and Alex says, "For $1,000, name the actor born in Brooklyn in 1943 as Sy Gezundt?" One of the contestants furiously hits the buzzer and says "Max Pain." Anyway, I've tried RSI and Stochastics and the whacky (to me) Bollinger Bands. Now I understand that there are traders who are able to use these indicators successfully. But I am not in that group. Some fellow long ago said, and I paraphrase here, "Give me a lever, a solid place to stand and I can move the world." Well, I spent some time with the late John Magee, co-author of "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" and I came away with the notion, "Give me a chart, with volume, and I can read it." For me, it works.

Hi Barb: You are the Queen Lady of the Anticipatory Upswing, and, if memory serves, you coined that phrase, which by the way is being used, i.e. "filched, purloined,poached,pillaged, pilfered and STOLEN! by others who give you no credit as they take it and use is as their own. Smarmy they are and a dastardly deed indeed. Anyway, of the three you mentioned, SHLM, LEN and CMH, I kinda like CMH the best; but only from looking at the weekly and daily charts. The rationale: the stock has not yet "run," thus an anticipatory upswing may move it and prove profitable.
We got about 15 inches of snow yesterday thru this morning. I am quite intimate now with my shovel. How much snow did you guys get down in Boca?

atjt99: Thanks for the explanation. I agree, I don't think it is that helpful; certainly not to me.

Hi insanediego: Yes, I have been out to the San Diego. Spent two weeks in a cage with a talking chimp who was into the market. A day-trader even. He called his broker and I followed his trades. Made a bundle. I send him a crate of bananas every week.

Hi Sherlock: <"How about...because the market looks 6-12 months ahead"> I must disagree. After years of study I have determined that the "market," read: fund and institutional managers look 6, 12, 18 months [and more..."In the long run they'll come back."} Sure. Anyway, my intensive study proves that the market looks ahead but one day, at most.

Hi ajtj99: I've lost, perhaps eaten, the 3x5 card that allowed me to determine Max Pain. If you have the time, I'd be grateful for the formula or whatever it is that gives the Max Pain...and maybe a sentence or two telling me the rationale, the reason for Max Pain...i.e., what it is. Thanks, Lee.

jrhana: Good post. I don't disagree; gold is in a nice uptrend. How far, how fast it will go?...no way to know.

Sylvestor80: You make a good and [troubling] point. Yes, the Fed has been pumping up the money supply with little hoped-for results. I suspect they are worried about an economy that get's "stuck" despite infusions of printing press money and credit availability. They are running out of bullets.

Hi OPNION/Opie: It's been a while. I'll check the charts you mentioned. Thanks...Lee

Augie: The NOK weekly chart shows a nice head and shoulders bottom; a break of the down-trend and the start of a new mark-up phase. We've seen a higher high, and if NOK holds at $15 or so, we'll have a higher low. Looks like a decent probability play. Another thought: the Apr 03 15 (.45 in the money) call is bid 2.00-2.15. The Apr 03 17.5 call is bid 1.00-1.10. The Jul 03 15 call is 2.60-2.70

George Cole: That was an outstanding post; an extraordinary analysis and right on the money. Many Big Banks, who should be the best, are terrible lenders; and have proven this for decades. Bank Boston,[now Fleet Bank] lends billions to South American nations because they swoon over the interest they can charge. Guy lends 10 billion to Brazil and they make him an executive V.P. You could look it up. When the loans go bad, they are "written" off, a clever euphemism for "we blew it, AGAIN." There are maybe a dozen BIG Banks I could cite who do the same nonsense. It's my sense they are motivated by earnings,(quarterly) and stock prices and shareholder happiness. I'd put my money under my mattress, (I do) before giving it to a Big Bank. Deal with a Big Bank and you've got ATM's and fees for giving 'em YOUR money; fees for ordering checks; fees for writing more than 20 or 30 checks each month; annual fees for just doing business with them; and should you make a mistake, by a penny even, and a check bounces,(often causing 10 more checks you've sent out to bounce) well, there's a slight $25 or $35 check-bouncing fee. These Big Bank sharpies must sit around thinking of new fees they can charge the depositors, [the folks who give them money.] And I don't want to talk about Big Bank executive remuneration; it would take me the better part of a fortnight.
The best way to deal with the Big Banks? Short 'em.

Better than Say's Law is Cole's Law. Cole said, and this is a direct quote: "A liberal sprinkling of ColeSlaw on a corned-beed and swiss on rye makes a wonderful sandwich. Cures insomnia, hives, itchy elbows and locked-bowels." You could look it up. [Who shut down the market today? Let's find and flog him.]

Hi Dan: I'm not so sure that gold is "starting a monstrous bull run." Yes, it is a bullish chart and the gold stocks are long-side tradeable. But a "monstrous run?" I suspect that it'll take monstrous inflation of the money supply and subsequent [much] higher long-term interest rates and an eventual sharp rise in the general level of prices. This may all come about, but I don't see it...yet.

Hi Eve: I agree with your take on EDSN. The weekly and daily charts look higher.

Hi Sylvester: When trying to ascertain "inflation" I suggest you look at the "general level of prices" rather than the CRB index. If the boys over at Treasury and the Fed inflate the money supply, it will, after 6-18 months, be seen in a rise in the general level of prices. Rising prices, as many folks think, are NOT inflation, they are the consequence, the result of prior money-supply inflating. I could write a tome about this (and have) but I hope this brief note is helpful.

Hi Alex..."Put down the bong pipe" you say. It's been a long time since the '60's and '70's. Ah, those were the days my friend. Be well and enjoy a prosperous year. Say, who closed the markets today?...Lee

Hi Augie...Yes, the RRI chart inidictes a major re-accumulation after a long mark-down phase. It looks higher.

mlsoft: I gotta agree with your last post.

Nice eyes Larry. AMZN broke the trendline as you indicated.

Augie: That was RRI, not RII.

Hi Alex...I take a wee bit of umbrage. To wit: ..."you are a perfect example of the bubble mentality being alive and well,"

"Jacques Brel is alive and well and Living in Paris."

But I digress. I called the bubble, 'nay documented the call of the bubble, while it was bubbling.

As to your comment that "in the long term it's ALL ABOUT EARNINGS" I disagree vehemently, fervently, passionately and even vegetatively.

Earnings, [sometimes, rarely] are the driving force for a handful of stocks for a long time. But for most, they are merely one more excuse to buy or sell. You could look it up.

Lee

The RRI chart is worth a look. A breakaway gap today after a 2-month consolidation. I'm long a bit of RII, bought today.

There was a time when earnings meant nice dividends. Those days are long gone. So why is everyone and his cousin kvelling over earnings? Rising earnings don't make stocks go up; orders to buy stocks, [more orders/volume] than orders to sell. Earnings? Feh, I say.

Sure I remeber you sparks. I'm glad to see Jenna is back posting. Trade well, Lee

Chrysler's comment: more baloney. And they pay these guys a ton of money for talking baloney. It must be nice.

Federal Reseves: Mr. Bush is twisting Venezuelan arms for quick, unprecedented elections. The hopeful winner will keep the oil flowing in our direction. 'Course, the other alternative is to invade IRAQ, (I think the movie will be out before the war starts) and grab their oil. All done in the name of protecting us from those weapons of Mass Destruction. Last I looked, we had a few of those same weapons. Gee, maybe IRAQ will invade us.

If day-trading is your style you might want to take a peek at ONTC. The 60 min chart shows a bull flag. The flag-"pole" is a 4 bar move from 2.90-3.50. The flag, still forming, is in it's 6th bar. No guarantee the stock will break up and out of the flag, but the probabilities are pretty good. And if the prior move continues the % gain may be pleasingly acceptable. Just a thought.

gf: The Street firms got away with murder. The fines: a mere bagatelle, a half a drop in the bucket. Make these things crimes and they'll stop stealing, cheating, lying and other stuff. But guess who writes the laws?

Gary: Jerry rarely discusses option "writing." It's been my experience that the pro's write the options; kinda like being a book-maker, taking the "vig," the commission, while 90% of the bettors lose. My best friend was a bookmaker for several decades. He gave me those numbers.

Hi Gary...Something else you might consider is the "writing" of calls on stocks you own but are looking to sell.
Occasionally you find some pretty nice premiums leading to a pretty good % return.

Hi jrhna: Thanks for your response. Cleary your strategy works for you. May it continue to bring you success.

Hi jrhana: I don't understand. Why hold off until next June?

Another observation on Gold; The weekly chart has been in a consolidation since last May, after the prior move up from $360 to just over $440. The consolidation was broken to the upside this week. It's a bullish weekly chart.

I note a lot of interest in gold. I'll share my experience dating back to the late '60's thru the parabolic run up in late '79. Gold, like any chart, resembles a retail operation: Inventory is accumulated, then it's marked-up as demand increases, it's distributed as supply and demand achieve 'balance' and then it's marked-down as a means of reducing the inventory. The the cycle tends to repeat. I sense that's what we're seeing now. Gold has been marked down and has been re-accumulated. A look at a long-term chart shows that it is in a new mark-up phase, (an uptrend.) It may gap on Monday. The chart suggests that it looks higher. But the conditions that were in place grom '65 thru '79 do not [seem] yet to be in place now, so I'm not looking for that parabolic run. The index and several gold stocks do appear to be very tradeable from the long side.

Hi Milo: I feel terrible. I don't have a portfolio. I don't have a favorite stock. I do have a nasty headache from trying to figure out where the market will be six, twelve or eighteen months from now, and I don't have a clue though I see a lot of charts making rer0accumulation bottoms. I don't carry a stock overnight; bad stuff happens overnight. I look at dozens of charts though every morning before the bell rings, try to find one that looks very good, one that looks worse than Steve Van Zandt's hair. Call me cuckoo, (many do) but a stock is just a vehicle to me: I buy 'em and sell 'em real quick, short 'em and cover 'em real quick. That's just my style; the way I try to make a day's pay. And we all have our styles, so whatever works, stick with it. That's what my analyst doc Kronkite always says. And I've been in therapy with him for ten years. He's a specialist. He treats traders.

SI: StockTalk: Short-Term Traders : ***Trend Setters and Range Riders***



DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes 12/14/02

I entered doc Kronkite’s office for my regular Saturday morning session.

The curvaciously gorgeous miss Tushbumper greeted me with a smile, a kiss fully on the lips, [be still my heart!] all the while pressing against me. Hard. You can imagine my surprise.

I finally, reluctantly, pulled away and wobbled into the doc’s office and stumbled onto his lumpy leather couch.

“You look peak-ed,” said the doc.

I said nothing.

The doc walked over to me, pulled out a watch fob with a lengthy chain and began to swing it back and forth. Back and forth.

I was 7:04. a.m.

The doc said, in voice low and sonorous, “Watch the watch.”

I watched the watch.

“You are getting sleepy, very sleepy,” he said.

I was getting a bit sleepy.

“Your eyelids are drooping,” he said.

“My eyelids never droop,” I replied as my eyes closed.

“You are getting sleepy, very sleepy,” the doc said.

“Absolutely not,” I insisted, or so I thought, for I was deep asleep.

“ We shall hyptonize you,” said the doc. The Freudian method, of which I am a recognized expert, is simply not working. And it’s been ten years.”

“ I can’t be hypnotized. “ I said. “Can’t be done.”

“You are in the hypnotic state,” said the doc. “You feel relaxed and you will do what I say.”

“Doc,“ I cried, “you’re not gonna make me cackle and run around like a chicken are you?

“Absolutely not,” he said. “I’m going to make you a better trader.”

“Gee doc, that would be great. ‘Cause if you want to know the truth, I haven’t been trading very well lately.”

“Mmm,” he said. The doc’s favorite word.

“And I’m a mass of neuroses too. I think it’s affecting my trading, “ I cried.

“Well it’s good you came to me,” he said “I’m a specialist you know.”

“I know doc. And now you’re a hypno-therapist. A great combination. Kinda like Larry, Moe and Curly. I know you can cure me,” I said, still deep asleep.

“Mmm. Tell me what you’re doing wrong when you trade. Leave nothing out.”

“Gee doc, I don’t know where to begin. I put on a trade and right away I get nervous. I start to sweat. My heart begins to pound, I feel heart ploppitations. I worry that the stock will go down. I watch every transaction and if it drops by ten cents a share I begin pacing. I bump into the wall, my head hurts. I’m afraid that I’ll lose hundreds, thousands. I want to sell the stock. You gotta help me doc. I can’t sleep, I can’t eat, I can’t make nick-nick.” I screamed.

“Nick-nick?” he said puzzled. “Is it anything like strudel?
Miss Tushbumper, you may have noticed her, makes wonderful strudel. Would you like some?” he said reaching into his pocket.

“No strudel doc. Trading help I need. I thought you were a specialist?”

“Mmm. This is a very interesting case, a very perplexing case. I’ve never seen such a case in any of the literature. I’ll tell my brother analysts about you, maybe they can give me some advice.”

“But doc, the market opens Monday morning. I need a cure now! I thought you were a specialist.” This did it.

“Mmm. Ok, I’ve just come up with a solution. A brilliant solution. Listen,” he said.

“I’m all ears,” I said.

“Would you like a piece of strudel?” he asked.

“Doc, no strudel. Tell me your brilliant solution.”

“Mmm. Yes of course. I shall give you post-hypnotic suggestions,” he said, beaming.

“I don’t want suggestions,” I wailed. “I want solutions.”

“Same thing,” he said. “Are you still deep asleep? He asked.

“Yes doc, I’m asleep.”

“So how come you’re talking? You can’t talk when you’re asleep. It’s a fact. You could look it up even.”

“Doc, give me suggestions, please,” I pleaded.

“Mmm. Ok,ok. When you get nervous think good thoughts. Relax.”

“Doc, you’re a genius!” I cried.

“Of course. How do you think I got to the top of the shrinking game? Ok, ok, “he continued. “When you get nervous, when you sweat and bump into walls and have heart ploppitations you will recall the word ‘bubeleh’ , the post-hypnotic suggestion. And you will trade like never before. Millions you will make. Trust me on this. Did I tell you I’m a specialist?”

“I think so doc.”

“Ok. At the count of 3.1416 you will awake.”

I awoke, felt terrific. Couldn’t wait to trade.

Lee Kramer

Copyright 12/14/02 LSK Ltd.





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MSFT: MICROSOFT CORP(NASDAQ) Saturday, Dec 14, 2002 11:28 AM ET
Symbol Last Time Change High Low Volume
MSFT 4:01 PM 52 1/2 -1.67 -3.08% 53 3/4 52.49 32,702,809
Prev Close Open Bid Ask Last Tick Avg Volume 52-week range
54.17 53.68 52.54 52 3/4 Down 34,745,000 41.41 - 70.62
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Hi George: Sure.

Hi Leon: The QQQ price at 26.99 was a bad print. It happens occasionally with stocks, rarely with the QQQ's.

mlsoft: I agree strongly with your post. If you've been around the Street long enough you've seen "bubbles", [I call 'em periods of insanity] that seem to occur every generation or so. Not to pat myself on the back too hard I knew we were in "madness" time..and knew too that it would end badly. The few who saw it for what it was profited and exited early.