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What was the news from today's call?
JT reinforced that Reduce IT was an "outcomes study" NOT a "Triglycerides Lowering" study.
This is a MAJOR point and I think he wants the FDA to do an ADCOM to drive that home.
No other drug coming behind Vascepa should be able to point to lowering Triglycerides as evidence of reduced heart attacks, strokes, etc.. I personally believe FDA agrees with that and Reduce IT set the standard others will need to follow.
The label will be expansive in this vein and not the lowering of Triglycerides.
The moat around Vascepa is very wide!
A doctor who writes scripts for statins who has "never heard" of Reduce It should not be practicing medicine.
Sam, thank you for being so reliable.
Good post. Thank you.
To really make the next leg up we need new inflows from new investors. Everyone closely watching Sam has their shares.
It matters not... I appreciate all you say. If we see this one small detail differently I think that's ok. And seriously, congrats and thank you as I believe your posts directly may have influenced mgt for the better.
That makes sense Cards, but my point was that if a patient has progressed from seeing their primary care doc once a year for a physical and routine blood work to seeing you (Cardiologist) the odds of them costing the insurance company for an event, heart attack, stroke, etc is multiples higher.
My neighbor is working on her Phd in math and is specifically working on modeling health issues and life expectancy and costs associated from diagnosis.
Insurance companies are heartless data driven casinos. Not a judgement, just an observation.
It's my opinion that the insurance companies are modeling the numbers of that specific population now, today... And the math on that population says get them on drug.
You are awesome. I appreciate everything you post, and hope this push back is not taken wrongly.
The Cardiologists are seeing patients more in need than those seeing a PC doc and IMO insurance is far less likely to push back against a Cardiologist although some do.
The NNT of 21 may be causing meetings already where they may want to get those patients in particular on Vascepa.
It's all about $$$$.
Cards on this board was spot on, and I'm really happy to hear mgt has moved the effort in that direction because at this time with the current label it makes perfect sense from a resource allocation vs return perspective.
JT just confirmed Cardiologists seem to get it, so we've tweaked what we are doing to more focus on them!
Well then based on that and growth, I expect to hear upgrades by tomorrow from all 3 analysts who were on the call.
BB, did I hear the CFO correctly say that at scale gross margins of 80%?
Throw me in. 70% $41
Hi North,
I've thought about that exact thing many times. A non/traditional move aimed at cost reductions for society's health burdens would need ownership in the chain of diagnosis, care and pharma which seems at first glance a very difficult prospect.
While in theory it sounds good, in practice I doubt that will ever happen.
I'd say if you are a fan of the possible Novartis buyout this is actually a bullish sign as it indicates a strong intent in CVD in their growth plan.
PR after the close that AMRN has secured an investment banking team to assist in valuing offers would make this place crazy town on Monday.
The $350 million will need to be revised upward and covering analysts will need to also begin to up price targets. My guess is very shortly after next weeks earnings call.
Thank you Sam!!
I think there is a connection between all the posts about B/O prices and the stock dumping. LoL
Sam81, I think everyone on this board appreciates what you do here. And I for sure appreciate Cards giving you answers and he's a wealth of good info too. Thank you both.
Don't know your height, weight, stress levels, or general disposition to life and I'm no doctor, but exercise is fun once you get started. It clears the mind in my experience and running or even brisk walking without headphones is medatative and will all go a long way with the meds you and your doctor decide to use. In other words, your numbers are a lot like golf. While you can compare them to others, the real game is only with yourself.
Thanks for all you do for us.
From the secondary to this moment our stock has traded very poorly, but, it does seem to be in a steady rise since the start of 2019 but incredibly slow.
It's time to get the secondary behind us. I say that because until we successfully get the PPS above the secondary and hold it it's a very big negative IMO.
The good news is we are now close.
LOL. Yes TMI for sure. Thanks.
Astounding lack of volume out of the gate. Friday before a 3 day weekend with sNDA announcement any minute or Europe, or even buyout on top of clearly growing scripts? Should be moving, but that's how stocks go.
Much appreciated. Thank you.
Not sure where you get data, but I'd love to know. According to Baker's 13F filing on holdings as of 9/30/18 vs the 13F filing today on holdings 12/31/18 they added 8.5 million shares.
If I'm wrong you prove it. LOL right back at ya.
YOU ARE WRONG. They added 8.5 MILLION SHARES.
They now own 13.2% of the entire company.
WOWZA!!! Look at Baker Bros GO!!!
I poured out all the pills on the counter and carefully inspected each one. I see no broken capsules and no residue at the bottom of the bottle and I feel quite safe taking them.
I really don't think it's a big deal, but I reported it so they can bring it to their quality control.
Dude, it's Vascepa. Good Lord...
I called Amarin and reported it. They were very courteous. They took the lot number and the name, address, and phone of the pharmacy to report to their internal quality control team.
Best
My script of Vascepa smells like fish.
I opened it and the odor was pretty strong. I looked to see if there was a broken capsul, but I don't see any and there is no residue on the bottom of the inside of the bottle.
It's only my 3rd bottle. First 2 did not have any odor.
Anyone else experience this?
Hi North,
I don't see Vascepa as a NASH play. Maybe there is something there but that's not what I was trying to say about GILD.
GILD has a Cardio drug Ranexa. It did about $750 Mil last year in the US. It has a sales team and that team likely has key relationships.
Ranexa is due to go generic over the next year and that revenue is in jeopardy for GILD.
That's the holistic fit.
GILD has a host of problems across the board and is losing revenue at a rate of 15% YOY and that's likely to grow BUT, they are sitting on $29 Billion in cash.
They must go shopping for growth. Their back is to the wall. That's why I said they could easily be a potential player in AMRN's future. But that's just my guess.
BB, I'm not in disagreement and my hope is we GIA.
My point is GILD is an absolute dumpster fire. I'm talking a raging white hot dumpster fire.
GILD is losing ground to Enata and AbbVie in Hep C, and if Glaxo and Merk keep making progress on their HIV platforms that is a massive revenue risk to GILD not even considering yesterday's NASH fail and Renaxa going generic soon.
Their management is in disarray and they are getting downgrades and can't figure out which way to turn and have resulted to doing stock buybacks when in the best case they see their revenues shrinking 15% YOY.
It's a wounded animal....
They will be looking for very de/risked plays and will be ready to unload cash to start to turn this around. They have no choice.
It's in that light, I'm saying keep it on the radar. Makes way more sense to me than PFE, but who knows?
Ranexa from GILD is/was a billion dollar cardio drug that will soon go generic.
GILD is a mess with shrinking revenue misguided management and $29 Billion in cash on hand.
Last night's news of GILD's fail in NASH puts more and more pressure for them to find a bolt on or larger M&A deal to stem the bleeding.
They have an existing CV team, and could easily fold in the entire AMRN team from the sales reps to every member of management.
IMO, this is the space to watch. Makes as much or more sense than a lot of other potential players.
They have the resources to make Vascepa a household brand globally.
Numbers are a very stubborn thing. Today's script numbers begin a process of fact based trading.
Fact: Sales reps are making a difference.
Fact: Going Alone is very viable.
Fact: Doctors are adopting and understanding the stakes.
I have no idea what the PPS will do today or next week or even next month but I'm positive what's going to happen over the medium and long term.
BB, you are on fire this AM!! Thanks for all you post.
Quote:
"Re: Amarin needing a partner. You are completely off-base and wrong. Amarin needed a partner in the fall of 2012, nobody was smart enough to buy AMRN at $60 PPS after Marine approval. Fast forward to the de-risked Amarin.... It's not for sale anymore."
On this I must disagree. I think the odds are now in favor of us going really big on our own, but there is no such thing as a company not for sale for a price. The question is anyone smart enough to offer JT $50 this morning? Not sure he'd take that, but you get the point.
Thanks again.
The current PPS, is not IMO and indictment on GIA. It feels like more of a technical trade standing alone in a void of news.
I have no guess on where the PPS will be in a trading sense in the short run, but I do have an opinion on GIA and upcoming events.
We are in an incredibly unique position of having Vascepa on the market with a newly engaged salesforce and scheduled industry events with data and the sNDA coming.
I think the GIA strategy is not an option but the true current status. We are doing it now. We are alone, and in that there is a tremendous opportunity for value creation.
So many micro and midcap biotechs cross this bridge with zero in sales. No sales teams ready, no relationships, and zero payers already covering their drug.
"IF" the sNDA is accepted and assigned a priority status, while new data shows deeper value in outcomes, while simultaneously, scripts continue to rise, along with market share? The PPS will reset much higher and GIA will become more desirable and any possible takeover much more expensive if even possible. The sentiment will turn on a dime as revenue projections will increase by both covering analysts and the company itself. The manufacturing and supply chain will become much more of a focus as the realization of multi billion dollar sales in 2020 and 2021 become not just possible, but expected.
And again, our major advantage in all of this? We are very far down the GIA road right this second.
I would expect we will see considerable PPS appreciation over the next 60 days, and even more over the next 4 months. All eyes on script numbers over the next 4 weeks and the growing acceptance among Cardiologists.
What will the PPS do this week? Who cares? Will it reach $14 or jump to $18? Who cares? This is a very short window for traders to trade, as a new trend is almost upon us.
BB, where can we follow the ITC developments? Do you have a guess as to outcome and timeline at this point?
TIA
Dude, Scripts don't suck... Not at all, but the expectations by many are unrealistic.
50% of Americans can't handle an unexpected expense of $1000 without the use of a credit card, or another type of loan. Think about that and think about the health needs of people with poor nutrition and lack of exercise and diabetes. This is a big chunk of the customer base. Yes, the reps are armed with the NEJM and the Reduce IT results and a 1st Amendment right to explain it to doctors or anyone they choose, but in the end, until the sNDA wins FDA expanded label and works it's way on to insurance plans these folks will not go fill a $300 out of pocket script.
Now all that said, I've watched the debate on here and appreciate both doctors Cardio, and JL even if they hate each other. Both bring real value, and I believe Cardio is 100% correct about where the focus should be because I believe the Cardiologists are most likely to get their patients approved by the insurance payers.
The company is making a wise investment ramping up all the activity now, and this will have the moment of the expanded label be a real launching pad, hopefully in August and all this is "IF" BP does not step in with an offer which I think is highly likely.
In short, everything is right on track, the only disappointment is against individual's expectations. The company is hitting on all cylinders.
Best
And now for some realism. Thank you Motorhead.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4236808-amarin-rebuttal-omegaminus-3-fans
Any chance this is driving today's price action?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-pivots-to-cancer-drugs-for-growth-11548601200