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Well many of the posters here are indeed experts IMO. I think the company listens to a few of them as well.
I freely admit I could be wrong, but I do believe if the company can address this topic fully it would be very positive.
I also believe it is indeed addressable. I believe they can secure the needed commitments for API to support a large peak sales number.
Lack of institutional investors is driving the PPS.
The company/JT has done a fantastic job and this board was way ahead of the market on the Reduce It results.
While we do have some great forward leaning players like Baker Bros, we are still by a large % a retail held stock. WHY?
Why have bigger names not soaked up the shares especially over last December during a big downturn from September?
I believe the overhang holding everything back is API. The company needs to detail a roadmap that assures the street of the availability of API, that supports the expected demand and far beyond. You simply can't get to $3 billion much less $10 billion in peak sales as an investor without assurance the API will be available.
Clear this overhang and I believe the PPS ramps quickly.
I think there might be something to this. $10 bil without the details is impossible to judge. I'm thinking we are maybe about to hear something.
These type of headlines are harmful to folks trying to do the right thing for themselves. Equating low cholesterol to Alzheimer's is like saying the invention of the iphone caused the deaths of World War II veterans. The numbers are undeniable.
As soon as the iphone hit the market World War II veterans began dying in droves.
My grandfather and father did not get Alzheimer's. The reason is the both died from Heart Attacks too young before the risk of Alzheimer's really kicks in.
Lower cholesterol does not cause Alzheimer's. It allows you to live long enough for Alzheimer's or cancer or being hit by a bus to happen.
Sure not trading as if any B/O is looming.
It's been stuck in the mud since November.
They need to sell the company. Way too much optimism around scripts has led too many retail including myself to think they could go alone. They can't. JT was 100% correct not to raise guidance. Without the expanded label and insurance coverage the 400 reps are spinning their wheels.
Let's sober up and realize what a win a buyout would be at a fair price of about $38.
Sam, your work is so appreciated. Thank you.
The pie in the face is ok,,,, as long as it's a flavor you like. Happens to everyone now and then. LOL
Newbies on this board owe you a thanks for such a well put together and accurate explanation.
Thanks
BB, I believe the FDA is under tremendous pressure to move Vascepa to the masses ASAP.
Health Canada and the ADA only increased the pressure last week.
I honestly can't recall anything like what the ADA did in front of the FDA approval of a label ever happening before.
I feel confident we will get priority review and I also believe there will NOT be an adcom. Vascepa will be approved for anyone with Triglycerides above 135, period.
I also believe AMRN is in discussions with multiple potential suitors and everything is likely to come to a boil very quickly.
If I'm wrong, I'm off by a factor of weeks before the end game not years or even months. It's almost over.
Haha. Ok BB. Go get'em!!!
BB, anything can happen, and too many weak traders fret over the PPS and lose sight of the end game.
I accept whatever comes but I would not be surprised if Amarin receives notification next week of priority review and no adcom.
Appreciate all you do and each post as well.
Thanks
JL, Marki is not hurting anything with these posts, and they make as much or even more sense than a plethora of what I've seen here.
Money is the ultimate equalizer. No matter what expert opinion and life experience any posters has the fact is if you have your money involved your opinion is equal to anyone else's.
Best to each of you.
zip, I'm in whether it takes a day or 4 or 5 years.
But anyone who thinks success is assured is a fool. Anyone who thinks the markets will remain healthy for equities is a fool. Anyone who thinks you can increase spending exploding deficits while reducing taxes and failing to fund education and infrastructure for our longer term benefit is a fool.
Will all these things work out? Maybe... Even a fool can win on a scratch lottery ticket.
I have no idea whether markets will even open tomorrow. Investors went to bed on 10-10-2001 sure they would be trading stocks the next day.
Many folks working for Bear Sterns felt fine both working for and investing in their investment bank in July 2007.
The point is ALL future predictions come with risk. Bird in the hand?
BB, you are my favorite poster here. You are smart, passionate, and informed. But I have to disagree.
The stock's current dilemma is pretty simple. Listen to Cramer last night. An uninformed carnival barker of equities.
Listen closely...
Lot's of speculation about a buyout on AMRN but I can't recommend a stock on a buyout because if you don't get it it's coming down.
He's debating GIA vs. buyout in a single sentence, and, he's right IMO.
Nothing moves us. Not Canada, not ADA, and priority review is baked in too IMO.
This is where we are. GIA, could indeed be awesome. But could also take years in a skeptical market to show up in the PPS. It just is what it is.
That's 100% true and something I hope JT and the board think about.
I'd bet they thought that after they released the secondary info on Reduce It in November the stock would be much higher. Wrong. Well timed hit on Mineral Oil spoiled it and their secondary went out in the low $18s which again is not what management was expecting.
I'd bet they thought increased scripts and big increase in 4Q alone would inspire the street and cause appreciation. Wrong again.
I'd bet they thought a successful JPM19 would get things moving. Wrong.
I'd bet they thought new analyst coverage by Stifel would get it going. Wrong.
I'd be they thought getting the sNDA in on time would move the stock. Wrong.
Nobody knows what's in front of us. Nobody. GUA seems so enticing but in reality could hold back shareholder value for years and years.
I love the idea of GIA. I can clearly see how much value can be built. Then I have a coffee and clear my mind.
Management needs to get out of the way of Vascepa and get it into BP hands ASAP.
There is simply too much to be done globally for us to GIA and with our limited patent life it's time to get a deal done without delay.
I've run many sales teams and headed up sales departments over the last 25 years and I've learned one lessen that is always true.
"You can't grow a pig by weighing it." It's a funny expression but has proven true in my observations over and over.
It works like this. Management, "not sales" becomes enchanted with the manager with the perfect spreadsheets and updated to the second daily charts toward objective. This person can quickly tell you where each rep is toward goal, and how the entire team is tracking and management promotes this person to the head of the sales department and sales quickly fall off a cliff.
Measuring/weighing is not selling.
The manager you want is the one in the field, riding with the reps, instinctively knowing which rep needs the most help. Knowing which doctor is the most important and will lead to additional adopters.
Yes, sales people and their managers are vital to success. It never fails that non sales people fall for the weighing it trap and often wonder if salespeople are even needed.
These are all pie in the sky numbers, but the thing to focus on now is where we are and what should be achievable blindfolded.
What if we do $2 Billion in sales in 2020. That seems very low to me. But as long as the Vascepa were growing at a good rate at the end of 2020 what multiple would be appropriate? Keep in mind, I'm talking about P/E, not a multiple of sales.
Could we get EBITDA of $1 Billion on $2 Billion in sales? Maybe...
Could we get a P/E of 20? Maybe...
Anyway we look at it the current cap is incredibly low. 2020 is 20 months away. Easy triple from here with no buyout.
Very difficult to overstate the magnitude of ADA making Vascepa SOC. That alone will constitute the support needed to make our drug a mega blockbuster and our current market cap will look tiny by comparison in a relatively short time frame.
Congrats to management and to all my fellow Longs.
Dead money for 6 months now. It's time for management to make a deal. The lost opportunity costs are starting to stack up.
I think healthcare and pre/existing conditions and our poor and elderly can rest easy and that will include accessible prescription drugs like Vascepa and help for opioid stricken areas in old coal country and beyond. The President said repeal and replace. He said he had a plan for after the repeal. I'm sure he will share that plan any minute now. Be patient.
I don't care what Dr. Robinson has to say or the speculation as to what may or may not have been her thinking or motivation. Free speech is a right.
The MAJOR objection I have to it was Herper's omission of her ties to Repatha. That is not ok. It's information the reader should have been given to allow them to inform their opinion of the statements, which were bat shit crazy to be sure.
Trading at a 1 month low after what you'd have to consider a de-risking delivery of data and basically sitting on the same level as the last secondary is frustrating.
The question is how long it lasts?
That was the most outrageous part of Herper's article. He owes readers an explanation of the omission but it will be a cold day in Hell before he does.
What did mgt fumble?
I'm not debating that. I'm pointing to the obvious strategy. In business you can be right, but be wrong.
JT is following the perfect path to help the most patients and us shareholders with the least risk.
Once you hold a beach head you expand inland. Why risk the beach because you know you're right? You don't...
JT is brilliant. They/he is going for the layup. Expanding the label to Triglycerides >150 is the lane the FDA has basically no hurdles on based on the SPA of Reduce IT and expands the market to the point supply will be an issue in 2020. Once complete everything else is on the table. No distractions.
What went wrong today? Nothing.
Everyone should just relax or just get back to polling the board on buyouts and %s...
Look, the company is hitting on cylinders. Scripts are running Lovaza out of town and AZN is basically using all their surrogates to plead hopelessly to slow down Vascepa's roll toward market dominance.
In fact after today I'll bet they have participants in the Strength trial dropping out to get on Vascepa. Wouldn't you? Why would you risk being in their placebo arm, or that maybe it works as well as Vascepa? Talk about betting your life!!
As long as JT and the mgt team keep the messaging going to docs, get the sNDA on time and maybe partner up Europe for some big cash we are well on our way.
Feeling really good about all of it. It even feels like Herper basically threw in the towel with that lame article this AM.
All this will pass and I predict new 52 week highs very soon.
Herper reminds me of Ayn Rand. She railed against Social Security and Medicare and was the lead thinker of that movement, but when she found herself broke and old guess what? She sure wanted that governmet help and took it hoping nobody would know.
Herper can talk about mineral oil, and the Strength trial and any other BS he can think of but I bet anything if he suffered a heart attack or stroke he'd be gobbling up Vascepa pills like a kid eating Halloween candy.
That was a positive article even if you take exception to his choice of headline as was his writings on how AMRN would fit nicely as a bolt on to AMGN and the inclusion of JT in his nominees for CEO of the year.
Posting nonsense about how he's a mob boss hiring a writing hit man to give him cover at stat in MH is F Crazy!!! Tin foil hat CRAZY!!
Posting how he's out to get us, laying in wait and has been bashing us is NOT factual.
Facts please.
It's fine to hate him and to hold a grudge. It's not ok to post lies here about his current position scarring potential investors with outright lies.
If you think not getting an I'm sorry I was so wrong before Reduce It results from AF means it's ok to post falsehoods about AF which makes AMRN look sketchy as an investment then that's your view.
I personally don't give a crap about somebody's sore butt on the subject, especially when they point at a scam stock like NWBO as their evidence on the AMRN board.
The facts are AF is positive of AMRN, and this board acts too much like a private club where often facts are replaced by feelings and again sore butt disease.
Post Reduce IT has been a new world, but some folks would rather wear tin foil hats and post falsehoods rather than taking the win.
I didn't say AF was not an A hole... I was making the point he has not bashed AMRN since the Reduce IT results and in fact has been positive.
Imagine an investor in the market, not specifically biotech, who hears about AMRN and stops by our board during their DD. They come away thinking AF hates AMRN, and maybe they should avoid the stock because folks here are falsely posting how he's out to get us and wildly attacking us? How the F is that helpful? Especially when the opposite is basically true.
That's the dumbest thing I've heard in a while. Hey you over there at Forbes writing a hit piece on AMRN, if you come to Stat we can write exactly opposite of each other, won't that be great?
Look man, I can read, and I can judge them on their own writing and I'm not going to start wearing a tin foil conspiracy hat.
If AF publishes something unfair I'll be first to point it out.
So basically you hate AF, don't have a single example of a negative piece against AMRN since the Reduce IT results and are just using this board to bash him for his past on another stock? That's stupid.
AF is a professional pot stirrer and no doubt has been wrong and arrogant on many different stocks, but since the Reduce IT results he's been positive nominating JT for CEO of the year and writing positively about why AMGN should try to buy AMRN.
As for Herper? Bash away. He's been a bias hit piece publisher.
What "fake news" did AF publish? I get the Herper complaint, his story was AWFUL and clearly a hit job, but I've not seen anything negative from AF, in fact in think he's been positive since the results of Reduce It were announced.
I agree 100%