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Mind Games....
Another month has passed, I still feel my prediction post a month or so back will indeed come true.
It's interesting how your mind plays w/ you w/ Stocks like these. I have shares from when they 1st went public, to last year right below the $5 mark where everyone thought it was going to keep going to the moon. Bought more at the offering a few months ago & now here we are & it keeps falling. I've invested significantly more now than I ever intended & looking at the current price it looks like a fantastic buy in opportunity.
But than again I told myself that every single time I've bought in. & I mean every single time, & I now have a daunting number of shares.
So the mind games begin. Keep buying & possibly bury myself & essentially risk this investment turning into a XYZ Biotech Stock type stock that never comes to fruition or stay where I am & just keep believing for another year like I've done for so so long.
For those of you that have been in this for a while what are you all thinking? My share numbers are getting stupidly huge, great if it goes north, very sad if it doesn't.
I wish you all the best & enjoy your holiday.
Positive Attitude
Been pondering & thinking. This is a small Biotech company, they had some hype, some reality checks & I believe they have a great promising future. If you don't than why are you really invested in them?
I wasn't at the meeting. Know people who were. It had good & bad just like every meeting does. In the end these are my thoughts. Take them or leave them, but this is what my gut is telling me after all these years.
-The 3 month end results of the 1st patient will conclude before Christmas. So mathematical we need a pt to be treated within the next 60 days.
-The results will be exactly what the FDA wants.
-Share price for Christmas will be over $4 b/c the results will be released & positive.
-All sites will be up & running, with all surgeons trained by Jan 1, 2015
-The results for pt #2 will conclude & be released in April 2015
-2nd patients results will be exactly what the FDA wants & in turn Pt's 3-5 will be accelerated.
-Upon this news the Share price will be over $10 & will not dip below that mark again.
-Pt's 3-5 results will all conclude before the end of August 2015 & the results will all be exactly what the FDA is looking for.
That's my view, my opinion. Let's see if I'm correct.
Here we are coming up shortly on 3 months since the offering & it's quite easy to say InVivo did a rather horrible job of doing well anything since then. 3 months of nothing.
The question that comes to mind for me is if it takes this long to get 1 patient & they need to do 5 how long will this trial in it's entirety actually take? Think about that. This is actually a simple test in the beginning for safety. The bar is set fairly low & they have 3 sites approved, hopefully the rest shortly. Training a surgeon for this procedure takes a matter of hours, yes that's correct hours. For those of you in this field you'll all agree training is not a big hold up.
Back in March I was thinking & posted they would treat the 1st patient Aug/Sept time frame & then w/ the bump would ask for money. Obviously I got the offering wrong. Now I'm just hoping they treat someone in those months.
We are a few days away from a meeting where they can say whatever they want but without a patient treated (aka implanted) this could become a very ugly scene for many of us, including me.
Let's all hope for a treated patient very very very soon! I believe we are all ready for this train to finally depart the station.
Since they released this information now, before the meeting on July 30th & before they treated a patient I honestly don't even know if they are going to treat a patient before the end of the year anymore.
Think about it, if they treated a patient & then released this information it wouldn't be that big of a deal because they would be in the actual trial. Now they have let all those employees go & "realigned" the company. The next news will be from their meeting in a month saying how they have made "great strides in guiding the company down the correct path towards success, & by realigning to focus on key products we hope to implant in a patient by the end of the 4th quarter"
Or some other nonsense.
It might be good in the long run but it's going to kill the stock & basically has forced many people into wondering if they should start thinking about plan B. I'm not going to sell, as I can't take this big of a loss, but wow is this a blow.
It's really kind of sad because it's a fantastic product that was mismanaged. It's been years since the monkey trials.
Bandit is just a typical MB pumper. He actually makes it easier for me to see new posts b/c he groups all of his together sequentially so you can see the new posts by others easier.
What's more interesting is InVivo announced McAllister is now CFO, this is a great thing for the long term & the stock didn't move. They have a history of making personal announcements followed by some kind of bad news in the following days. Right about now I'm hoping everything in my gut is wrong.
We need a trial to begin, not a delay.
Sabby Cap isn't new info, they are the ones who struck the deal for $1.15 & the warrants. InVivo made the determination that they needed to raise cash, so they went out & found someone to do it with. This is where my post a few back came from & right now I'm just hoping I'm insanely wrong about InVivo having a long ways to go.
Recall I was saying how they had enough cash to get through the summer? Maybe even part of the spring for all we know. If they were going to have a patient treated before then the stock would rise, that's kind of a guarantee. Since we'd have to wait 3 months for the 2nd InVivo would have to determine if they wanted to do an offering then or hold their breath & treat the 2nd patient & get a huge bump in the stock & then do an offering. By then everyone would expect the offering, but since they would be in the 2nd patient I don't speculate it would have been too much of a dip.
So here we are all trying to ponder what was their reasoning why they did the offering @ $1.15 instead of waiting for a bump in price to do it. Within a month +/- they will have to release some information of what is going on.
If they start/commence a trial all is good & I'll have a smile on my face just like everybody else. If they say they need more time for a trial for any reason, no matter what the reason may be, we're looking @ $.75 or below.
For everyone out there buying & holding look at it's history. When good news is released the stock doesn't shoot up so you'll have time to buy, but when bad news is released it falls like a rock. Do what you wish but I'm saving some money till I know what's going on & then I'm all in w/ whatever I've got.
Good luck.
Frank is a business man, & he is good at it. He's been dumping shares for quite some time & he has plenty of them to dump, the only reason he'd hold is....for a reason.
When did he stop selling his shares & is there a way to confirm that he's holding onto all of them?
If this is indeed true this reassures me that there is a light at the end of this long tunnel.
Here's a ? for everyone. What does everyone truly believe the stock will be at 1 week after InVivo releases it's 1st pt has been treated? I'm asking 1 week as I figure that's a fair amount of time for the stock to jump & then settle.
Now before someone says $10, $15 or $20 I believe we are all wise enough to understand that isn't going to happen.
Are you all thinking $3, $5, $7?
It's a question that is being asked on a lot of the other boards and the average seems to be in $4-5 range. Then there is always a follow up post about the 2nd, 3rd pt etc. treated & then the results released on them, etc. Yes I believe everyone is aware that if the results are positive the stock will break the $10 mark quite easily & climb hopefully forever.
I'm just curious about your view after this event.
Errett
I don't really care if you think I'm Bernie Madoff or Warren Buffett it's a MB, anyone can post what they wish. I used to be very active, left for a few years to serve, came back, account was deactivated so started a new one.
I & am quite versed in bio-absorbable & non-absorbable scaffolding, it's been around for decades & I've worked for companies that utilizes them in long bones, maxillofacial, & traumatic reconstruction. Med Device is a very small world & we all talk, a lot. I've been working in it for over 27 years, I heard of how they were utilizing this technology back in the late 90's before monkeys, mice & InVivo existed, right as Langer started to have success in bridging polymers. This particular derived technology wasn't even originally intended to be used in the spine. InVivo's not even remotely the only company trying to accomplish this approach in SCI. If you're so versed in this technology go find the others, I currently know of 5 & I opted to invest in 3 of them. So yes, I can honestly say I've been w/ this product/company from the actual beginning. Realistically before anyone on this MB has ever heard of it, except for Steve. If he's still even reading these boards?
My jab about shipping was simply a comical poke at Biotech's common delays. Shipping & packaging issues with biologics are very common, & has resulted in entire lots being scrapped, that's just how it's always been. There's nothing more frustrating than having to divulge an entire lot # of product has been contaminated due to a faulty sterility seal in it's packaging.
Could I be wrong about the delays? Absolutely, & I would love to be, actually I'd be ecstatic. I've got a lot riding on this. By the sounds of it so don't you.
It's going to be a fun ride once this train leaves the station. Load up before it leaves & picks up steam, as then it will be too late.
Everyone for the most part on this board is pretty positive. Some of us are new, some have owned this stock since it first went public.
True there's a tremendous amount of positive events that can happen & hopefully will happen. Although when you get right down to it none of it has happened....yet.
Virtually every Biotech is like this, sadly I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't another delay of some sort. I can easily foresee everything being pushed till the end of the year due to "unforeseen complications in shipping & handling of product" or some other feeble issue.
We all need to think of this, before the public offering InVivo had enough cash to get through the summer. Yet they also stated they will be treating the 1st pt in the 2nd quarter. Now for anyone who's been investing in Biotech stocks knows this event would have generated significant interest & bumped the price of the stock. In turn they could have done an offering after this event & gotten more bang for their buck, but they didn't. Instead we're sitting around $1.20 & realistically will be for a bit. Sure InVivo will open more sites & say they've trained surgeons, etc. but actually implant their device into a pt? Actually get a Hydrogel partner? Actually up list? Prepare yourself for a long summer.
Don't get me wrong I'd love to see all the events unfold quickly & successfully. I have a significant number vested in this company & look forward to my life changing event like so many of you all are as well. I'm just saying if you just stop & compare the events of InVivo to countless other Biotechs it makes sense.
All the best of luck.
Blackbandit do you think you're texting/IM someone? I'm all for InVivo but seriously you post in these rapid groupings. Truly bizarre
Obviously we are unaware of what is occurring behind the scenes, but they will essentially need to release positive news in the very near term. The manufacturing delay I believe was just their desire to control the entire life cycle of this trial process. We all must realize that they will in the very near future require more money, & trading sub $2 is no wise way to acquire that funding. Hypothetically if everything we all believe will come to fruition than the delays we have all dealt with over the last year(s) will indeed be irrelevant, but for those of us who have a rather larger stake in this company any additional delays most likely would result in not only a financial loss but realistically would trigger legal action. Start looking back at InVivo's press releases (especially over the past year) and you will start to build a picture of false promises. Now imagine how many investors bought above $3, $4, or even $5 a share & you can quickly realize that there are many investors who if this company delays once again will be quite disappointed & may take the next step to be made whole again.
As an example if an investor bought 200,000 shares @ $4.00 & InVivo releases another delay & it crashed to under a dollar, what do you think that investor is thinking? You must remember he/she bought those shares last year right as everything was supposed to commence & InVivo looked like a home run. That was toward the end of June 2013. That's just 2 months away from being a year ago. Now how many other investors are there just like this one out there?
There comes a time when I believe a company has positioned itself in a way that it virtually guarantees, if not forces itself, to release certain information. In this case InVivo has forced itself into a corner where it has to release positive news or it will essentially destroy itself.
Delays are inevitable w/ every company, how they are handled is up to the company. InVivo just doesn't handle them very well. Looking at them historically they have been delayed on just about everything so this isn't a surprise to me. When the trials begin it will be nice but the more I think about it I foresee another delay & bet the first actual pt treated w/ the scaffold will be in the August/Sept range. Then the stock will bump up & that will coincide w/ when the company will need money so they'll offer more stock (Oct they run out).
Obviously we all want this to work out for many reasons.
I actually don't believe the scaffold is InVivo's big ticket but rather it's Hydrogel. There's a slew of issues w/ that coming to market but if they can figure out a way to do so than that will be a mammoth gain for us as stock holders.
Good luck to all.
I don't foresee InVivo's recent hires w/ all their previous accomplishments as people that would join a company that wasn't going to accomplish something. Rather I see them all as incredible additions that assure me that my long position in this company is secure. One concern that I do have is InVivo's inability to convey information, especially in a way that generates a positive view/outlook. I hope that their next hire will be a person with strong PR skills to convey information to the public & us stock holders in a more positive, consistent, & responsible way.
It's March 10th & not even a PR stating all is well, the company is in track for the end of the month commencement, etc, etc?
We can speculate all we want in what might occur w/ the volume & price once the trials begin, but as of now after years of waiting for a company so eager to prove the world their capabilities they currently excel at only dragging their own feet.
I pray they aren't about to release news of a delay, it will kill the share price.
March is just around the corner, I'm curious if this perfect storm per say will occur, or if there will be another announcement of a delay. So many incredible situations can/could play out for so many people I'm just praying for some positive news.
Believed in them since 2011, it's time to see miracles happen.
I've been following invivo for quite some time, been to the facility, seen it's truly amazing technology from rats to monkeys. From the scaffold to the hydrogel, I believe everything will be fantastic. I'm a trader by day (got a new log in, gotta love corporate rules) & went out & invested my own money on this one. It amazes me how there are 2 very different views on this company. One side sees this as not going anywhere, just an eternal FDA roller coaster, while there is the other side that believes this could actually not just make people money but be a rather large leap forward in medicine. I know time will tell, but wow has it ever been stressful this past year.
I wish you all the best. My personal DD on invivo makes me believe in it's future & I hope you all do as well.