Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Did anyone know what happened to Gld tmr?
I think this is the scenario that will play itself out. Have to agree with Dent & Stockman. What do you think?
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/harvard-trained-economist-asdfasdfasdf/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
Gld “If” the rest of the world is going to use the renminbi someday..as a reserve or trading currency, clearly it needs a mechanism by which to accumulate renminbi...How does the world accumulate sufficient renminbi to acquire reserve status? There are basically two ways. First, China can run a current account deficit. Second, foreign capital inflows into China can be matched by Chinese capital outflows. The second way does not result in a net foreign accumulation of Chinese assets, but it allows foreigners to hold renminbi bonds and other assets to the same extent that Chinese hold assets abroad (above the current account surplus, of course). So it too will run into triffin’s paradox and replace the US as the world’s global currency warehouse and run consistent trade deficits.
What do you think here?
Will do. Thx Gld
Yep. Pick your poison. I’m on my way to Bordeaux, Richard Thaler said: “Why tie to gold? Why not 1982 Bordeaux?
I love it!
Looks like the Generals haveTrumpy where they want him... boxed in. Now he has to go to war or he will look like a Russian stool.
Yep Looks like winter. Market rally fizzled. Interesting to see tomorrow how the Dow sell theory plays out.
23,533
That’s not good for the petrodollar
Ok. Thanks Gld
Is Richard Duncan worth the 500 bucks? Im interested in what he is saying.
QE to infinity... rough waters ahead. Problem is , will it have the same psychological impact as previous rounds ??
Great post. Hanging by a thread..
Amazing what three trading days can bring. I’ll be up n early here in Italy on Monday. Have a good weekend Gld...
Avalanche selling on monday... who knows? Could. Be.
Again...,
A parabolic move toward a top
A sharp correction followed by a failure to test the previous top
And finally, a break below support, followed by a dramatic plunge.
Found this interesting heading into today:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-dow-theory-sell-signal-could-trigger-a-selling-avalanche-2018-03-22
Perfect timing :)
Good call Gld: you called it ...
HYG:JNK DEATH CROSS.
...going up is going down.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/dow-futs-plunge-600-points-powell-highs-below-mondays-lows
Thanks Gld. I appreciate the input .
Gld, I found this article interesting, especially on what he said about risk, the dollar and what we may or may not have learned from ‘08 and the Fed. Tell me where you may or may or may not agree, and tell me your specifics for doing so, if you don’t mind. Have a good weekend...
Thx Gld...
“. . .Today almost two thirds of Ginnie Mae guaranteed securities are issued by independent mortgage banks. And independent mortgage bankers are using some of the most sophisticated financial engineering that this industry has ever seen. We are also seeing greater dependence on credit lines, securitization involving multiple players, and more frequent trading of servicing rights and all of these things have created a new and challenging environment for Ginnie Mae. . . . In other words, the risk is a lot higher and business models of our issuers are a lot more complex. Add in sharply higher annual volumes, and these risks are amplified many times over. . . . Also, we have depended on sheer luck. Luck that the economy does not fall into recession and increase mortgage delinquencies. Luck that our independent mortgage bankers remain able to access their lines of credit. And luck that nothing critical falls through the cracks. . . ”
If it happened once... it will surely happen again..
It’s always a liquidity issue.
https://protradingresearch.com/2018/03/09/housing-liquidity-crisis-looms-debt-deflation-follows/
Wow!! Go Gld Go! How do you feel about this aphorism: The best investors make 80% of their money 20% of the time?
I thought of your post yesterday when I read this a bit ago from the hedge. The Hawk shock...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-28/bank-america-only-number-matters-market
Some London analysts are saying if and when brexit goes through they could see the pound drop below the Euro. A first.
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3026935/amundi-sterling-to-fall-below-eur1-following-brexit
It sounds very plausible. Global synchronized growth, leads to global systematic crash IMO.
Haha! I should! The jet lag crushed me this time. I got up at 6:30 pm Italian time. Looks like things have settled down a bit in the market.
Looks like Dalio has been flip flopping in recent weeks, but is decidedly bearish at the moment. Heading to Europe Gld, Rome for some time and then I may settle in London. But I’ll be reading your posts and asking questions. Best of luck to you this volatile year!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/ray-dalio-everything-changed-last-10-days
What an insane day. Oil down, 10 year up. 200 dma hit then whipsawed. A crazy week. Stocks were on target for their worst week for US equities since Lehman in Oct 2008... (worst 2-week drop since Feb 2009)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-09/goldilocks-dead-stocks-suffer-worst-week-lehman
You no longer track tvix. What don’t you like about it.
We regretfully inform our net short sellers of (Vega) that due to an ‘acceleration’ event we are closing our doors for business.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/credit-suisse-terminates-xiv
No truer words... indeed. Dow drop 1500 at one point. It’s a new age.
Could we see a January -February redux of ‘16
Like the song says... time keeps on ticking... ticking... into the future...
ECONOMY:CHINA : 2009-2017 ; ever since SUB-PRIME crisis of US n EUROPE > CHINA has been buying all commodities ,US Treasuries all Metals , Coal , Crude to keep the world going for last 8-9 years. Now China holds $1.5 trln ( 6% of all ) US Treasury. almost @50% of all world Metals, @50% of world Coal, more than 50% of all Commodities !
this is funded by UNSUSTAINABLE Credit Boom ( 300% debt ) from China Banking system n Local Govts (NPA is about @25%)
Last 24 months $1 trln has left China, after which China has put in Capital Control to stem the outflow.
FREE FLOAT of YUAN will devastate the valuation of ASSETs of CHINA n China will be exposed as the BIGGEST HOAX of 21st century.
As correspondent Bart D. explains, opportunities to boost productivity via new infrastructure are scarce:
Why anyone believes that building 'infrastructure' somehow promotes economic growth in this day and age (as though it were 1950’s) is delusional. The reason 'infrastructure' worked back then to build economic activity was simply because it lagged behind the burgeoning private industry. These days there is no ‘hard industry’ left to 'lag behind.' Building a bigger road between the suburbs and the Mall won’t create prosperity for anyone except the owners of the road building company. Unlike a 1950’s road linking a steelworks to a port or a Beef farm to a meatworks."
In other words, when commerce already exists but is cumbersome, infrastructure that smooths the flow yields enormous productivity gains.
One example of this from history is the construction of the first stone bridge across the Seine River in Paris. This single structure changed commerce, tourism and social relations in the city, as it enabled two carts to pass side by side and enable pedestrians to cross the river safely.
For more on this impact of a single durable, commerce-enabling bridge in Paris, read this book: How Paris Became Paris: The Invention of the Modern City.
Replacing existing infrastructure is also problematic. It may well be necessary, but since it won't boost regional productivity (since it's merely replacing existing structures), it acts as a tax on the regional economy: if the replacement costs $1 billion and generates no real gains in productivity, it is in essence a tax that bleeds capital from the economy that could have been productively invested elsewhere.
Rebuilding a bridge generates higher spending on materials and wages, but if it doesn't generate additional productive capacity equal to its cost, this additional spending (in our world, always paid for with borrowed money that accrues interest for decades to come) runs out once the project is complete, but the costs of paying for the replacement continue on for decades.
You can only be the vacuum cleaner of the world for so long...
Thanks Gld. Very helpful.
Gld, Monetarism, as you know Formulated by Milton Friedman, argues that excessive expansion of the money supply is inherently inflationary, and that monetary authorities should focus solely on maintaining price stability.
My question here is: after $4.5 trillion of QE can we determine the debasement value of the dollar in percentage terms? So, if the dollar has lost 97% of its value since 1913, what has been the additional erosion since the Fed began QE in 2008?
Thanks Gld. I just downloaded his paper: Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth that he gave at Berkeley a few years back. Looking to delve a little deeper.