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Feels like there is a lot of emotion and knee jerk reaction going on here. As you can tell our moderator is smelling that fear and piling on. It's so nice to know how much he cares about our well being.
Nothing has changed as far as I'm concerned. I figured the split would take place closer to the end of the year. I must be a lousy "insider" since not only did I get that wrong I have also been wrong on every Quarterly reporting prediction as well.
I have no idea what the numbers will be for Q2 but I would expect they would be stronger than Q1 since that is typically the weakest quarter for all companies. So if the Q2 numbers come in higher then Q1 and let's say for arguments sake they top 1 million dollars would it be possible to believe that this isn't a scam company?
When I first started posting on this thread I indicated that I had a 2-5 year outlook on this stock. That's how long I figured it would take to get traction. I believe that was less than a year ago. I personally haven't changed my stance and nothing that is stated on this board no matter how many times and no matter in how many different ways is going to shake me. I either go out a major winner or I bust out. It's only money and money is easy enough to come by.
Well so much for me being an insider. Very surprised at the timing of this and the fact that there was no company announcement. I still believe in the company and will continue to hold long. Guess that makes me a promoter to.
Newelong- Well said I agree with you 100%.
Per usual you just twist words around. It seems to me you were the one that said Sandy Groshow needed a job and the money. I never stated he took a job with Adaptive and clearly proved he didn't need the money. So I really have no idea what you are talking about. Come to think of it I have been reading your posts for about 6 months now and really don't believe I have ever read anything that isn't twisted toward your agenda.
But I'm sure that's just me.
Say what? Your the one that said he needed a job and needed the money. So which is it?
I predict they have some big players in the pipeline but we just don't know it yet.
in case you missed it 236T568
BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. — The elites from Los Angeles’s entertainment, financial, and technology industries descended on a Beverly Hills estate last week for a buzzword-filled discussion of the state of media and the trends that will disrupt it.
Summa Group, Oppenheimer & Co.’s L.A.-based wealth-management cell for ultra-high-net-worth individuals, sponsored the private “State of the Industry” party, which hosted 500 guests at a home just south of Sunset Boulevard
Additionally, the event featured off-the-record conversations with “Paranormal Activity” producer Jason Blum, “X-Men,” and “Transformers” producer Tom DeSanto, Lowercase Capital partner Matt Mazzeo, former News Corp. executive Emiliano Calemzuk, ex-Fox Television Entertainment Group chairman Sandy Grushow, and Hollywood power-lawyers Tara Kole and Mark Geragos
I wonder how much money you have to have to be labeled Ultra High Net Worth?
Socio- "I hate to agree with you, but I thought the very same thing :D"
Do you even know who he is?
The elites from Los Angeles’s entertainment, financial, and technology industries descended on a Beverly Hills estate last week for a buzzword-filled discussion of the state of media and the trends that will disrupt it.
Summa Group, Oppenheimer & Co.’s L.A.-based wealth-management cell for ultra-high-net-worth individuals, sponsored the private “State of the Industry” party, which hosted 500 guests at a home just south of Sunset Boulevard
Additionally, the event featured off-the-record conversations with “Paranormal Activity” producer Jason Blum, “X-Men,” and “Transformers” producer Tom DeSanto, Lowercase Capital partner Matt Mazzeo, former News Corp. executive Emiliano Calemzuk, ex-Fox Television Entertainment Group chairman Sandy Grushow, and Hollywood power-lawyers Tara Kole and Mark Geragos
So a guy that is deemed ULTRA-HIGH-NET-WORTH needs the money??
Did you seriously just say he was out of a job and needed money? Sandy Groshow needs money? As you would say HA
I could go on an on about why this company is already successful and is a great investment. Newelong has done this over and over and you either are a believer or not.
One thing to consider is why is Sandy Grushow putting his name and reputation on the line for this company?
Grushow spent nearly 25 years at the Fox Entertainment Group, where he helped to create the Fox Broadcasting Company as it appears today. Grushow began his career in the feature film marketing department of 20th Century Fox, overseeing creative campaigns for movies such as Big, Die Hard and Broadcast News. In 1988, Grushow was asked by then chairman Barry Diller to invigorate Fox’s new broadcast TV network as he had the motion picture studio. Grushow built the network’s advertising and promotions department from the ground up between 1988 and 1990, launching signature FOX hits The Simpsons, In Living Color, COPS and 90210. [4] In addition to marketing, Grushow added programming and scheduling responsibilities to his purview in 1990 when he was named executive vice president of the FOX entertainment division. In 1992, at the age of 32, Grushow assumed the presidency of the Fox Entertainment Group entire network division, making him the youngest executive to ever hold the title of network president.[5] In that leadership role, Grushow oversaw the development and launch of The X-Files, Melrose Place, Party of Five, Living Single and MADtv while also expanding the network from four to seven nights of primetime programming. In 1996, following Grushow's successful network run, he was tasked with building FOX's television studio division, 20th Century Fox Television [6
I'm confused. Why would a company risk it's reputation getting in a business relationship with a "scam" company? I am sure that after all of their research into the company and an inside look as to where they are heading they must have seen that this was a big shell game??
Or is it just possible that another group of professionals looked at the company and determined that they are on the cusp of explosive growth and the could be a major player in this multi-billion dollar industry?
What seems more likely to you?
So true
You asked how long OneScreen and Adaptive have been working together. I don't know the exact answer but it appears that they have been working together for at least 8 months. When I went into the Adaptive Website this weekend I was looking at some of the case studies and they were OneScreens clients in the study- the Young Turks as an example.
I laugh to myself when it keeps getting pointed out that people are selling blocks of shares- guess what there is some major accumulation going on. In my opinion, there is at least one big boy quietly amassing millions of shares- 50K here- 100K there etc...... Now why do you suppose they would be doing that?
I will guarantee you that the longs will have the last laugh on this one. You can put that in the bank- I'm planning to.
Scam company?? did you bother to read this?
http://www.adaptivem.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Brands.pdf
236T568- Scam company? Really?
Take a look at this. This explains very clearly what Adaptive does.
http://www.adaptivem.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Video-Monetization.pdf
Very long on this stock.
Adaptive Media's is not acquiring One Screen. OneScreen spun off their technology platform Media Graph which is what Adaptive is purchasing for $15 million. Media Graph is a site where every media person or media company in the world can create an account and find each other and work with each other in one place and under one umbrella. You have media producers, media publishers, and advertisers that all need to work together to get clearance rights, video content, and buy ad space to get their message out. Traditionally you would have to reach out to multiple different companies to get each part of equation. Then you would need to try to get them synced together or pull it together yourself to get a final product that you could advertise.
Think of Media Graph like you think of Facebook or LinkedIn- these are places where people go to connect. Media Graph is place where advertisers, publishers, producers etc.... can find each other in one spot. Adaptive will get a cut of every transaction that happens on that platform. Now mix in that with Adaptive's current strengths and you have a dominating concept that could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. So $15 million for this technology is a drop in the bucket.
Newelong- I put together awhile back the relationship amongst all of these guys. Beanstock Adaptive and Norman Brodeur all have had working relationships with one another over the years. It wouldn't surprise me at all if at some point Adaptive, OneScreen and Beanstock became one big happy family. If that were to happen the revenue they produced together would be mind blowing.
You guys are cracking me up. I haven't gone anywhere I have been watching this thread every day since my last post. I couldn't care less if this stock is in the .10's .11's .12's and on up. Makes no difference to a true long.
Newelong- in my opinion you are correct when you say that the Beanstock relationship is going to much bigger than people think. This is going to turn out to be one of the most important partnerships they have ever made.
The OneScreen deal is confusing but keep in mind that Onescreen has the Media Graph which is the technology that Adaptive is most interested in. That old article about One Screen driving bad traffic is because they hooked up with the wrong third party that was supposed to monitor it. Now that they are using Adaptive to help them monitor for robotic traffic that is the thing of the past. Yes they lost a couple of clients- but Dow Jones didn't leave them, Clear Channel didn't leave them and they signed up the biggest account you tube has The Young Turks Network. Onescreen focus's mainly on desktop computers so they are a natural partner for Adaptive's customers that want to hit all avenues for revenue.
Bottom line is this company is going places and is farther down the road then any of us can imagine.
Prediction .20 - .25 in the next 30 days
you mean something like this?
Rocket Fuel Inc. (FUEL) -NasdaqGS ? Follow
41.13 Up 1.29(3.24%) 4:00PM EDT
After Hours : 42.25 Up 1.12 (2.72%) 7:28PM EDT
Market Cap:
1.44B
P/E (ttm):
N/A
EPS (ttm):
-1.38
Div & Yield:
0.07 (24.10%)
..
I was planning on listening to the webinar but unless I am wrong it appears they want $299.00 to listen to it?
Newelong- I have read each of the articles you have posted along with everything you have posted in the past.
What I take away from this is that Adaptive is one of a small number of companies if not the only company that has an end to end solution so that there need not be any manual process or areas of the business that can not communicate and share information with each other.
So the challenge we have is to get the big boys to notice us along with delivering on everything we say we can do.
If we can do that, which I believe we can, the sky is the limit.
I like the article a lot but unless I am not understanding something he is grossly overstating OneScreens revenue. It seems to me he thinks they did $38 million in sales this last year. They did $15 million in 2012- my guess is 2013 was flat if not a little bit down.
He is stating that ADTM would be receiving $7.5 million in revenues from OneScreen in Q1 of 2014. Not a chance.
His first table of sales projections makes sense to me with OneScreen coming in at a reasonable level. That projection is for $20 Million in sales for 2014 that if you recall I projected a month or so back and feel is possibly a bit conservative.
His second table while exciting has the OneScreen revenue share at $30 million which I am not quite share how he gets there.
All in all a great article and a nice summation of all of the things this company has going for it.
newelong, in my opinion the reason employees went from one company to the other is that there is going to be a merger. No way One Screen gives up 80% of it's revenunes for consulting. This month to month agreement allows them to dot the i's and cross the t's- we will see an announcement at some point that Adaptive Media has acquired OneScreen.
ADTM get's 80% of One Screens revenue
Nice digging, that is some great information. Bottom line is they are building a dream team. Saying that all of these guys are coming for the salary and stock only is laughable. Nobody leaves an established company for most likely a smaller salary with heavy stock incentives unless they feel like the company is positioned to be a big player. After all, stock options are no good if they can't deliver on stock performance.
Agreed OneScreen won't add $1 million dollars in revenue onto Q4 numbers. OneScreen was in major upheaval through all of December with layoffs, CEO ousting etc...... I doubt there was much emphasis in going out to generate revenues.
With that said I still expect Adaptive to post Q4 revenues in excess of $1 million. It really doesn't matter to me since I am in for the long haul.
I'm not sure exactly how many shares were bought this week but I think it was close to 7 million shares which means around $750,000.00 or so flowed through this company this week alone. That volume is an indicator of things moving in the right direction. I just read this again from the most recent SEC filing and I think it deserves another read since it is exactly why I am so bullish on this company.
“This is another step in what we think has the potential to be a very exciting, lucrative and mutually-beneficial relationship for our two companies,” said Adaptive Media CEO, Qayed Shareef. “OneScreen is a pioneer in digital video and has developed one of the most robust video content management platforms on the market. Combining their capabilities in video with our expertise, compliance DNA and advanced RTB systems across
mobile, online display and video makes for a unique and powerful combination in the industry.”
In recent months, Adaptive Media has made several strategic announcements that have positioned the company in the center of the advertising technology industry. The Company’s technology platform, born from a combination of acquisition and build, is competitive and on-par with larger legacy competitors that have raised hundreds of millions of dollars in venture capital. Overall, Adaptive has raised a fraction of the capital yet still sits in an enviable position in the industry alongside other incumbents. For instance, recent announcements and S-1 filings by Supply-side platforms Rubicon Project and Pubmatic, which has an estimated valuation greater than $1 billion, exhibit the scale and volume Adaptive Media believes it can achieve for investors.
“We look forward to sharing additional information on our plans with OneScreen as we finalize details in the near future,” Shareef concluded. “We believe investors will take notice of the compelling growth story happening at Adaptive Media right now.”
Now throw in the more recent Bean Stock announcement into the mix, which I believe will bring in a surprising amount of revenue, and this party is just getting warmed up.
Irish62 the apology wasn't necessary but I appreciate it. It's ok to be skeptical about peoples motives. I am certainly no expert but I will admit I spend a fair amount of time getting educated and I am learning a lot from this board and appreciate newelongs posts and I enjoy the speculation and watching the puzzle pieces being put together.
I believe in this company and can see that they are in the process of building a company that IS going to compete with the big boys. At this point they don't give a rip about the stock price and neither do I since my goals for this holding are very lofty and the day to day fluctuations mean nothing.
The "backdoor" into the website is now gone. I looked through the website earlier and it was much better than the current format. I am wondering what to make of the locations. Just for kicks I map quested the current Adaptive location to the Fountain Valley location and that address is less than 10 miles away. The other location in India is a real head scratcher.
I went to link you provided for the Addapptive Media site. I wonder if they are changing the spelling of the company name for some reason. Also I found this interesting when I clicked on offices it came up as follows:
Our Offices
North America Office:
10810 Warner Ave, Suite 7
Fountain Valley, CA 92708
USA
Tel: (424) 218-6875
India Office:
202 North Point, 4/1 North Road, St Thomas Town
Bangalore 560 084
INDIA
What's up with the India office??????
Yeah hoping those Q4 numbers are going to surprise us.
Stock is heading upwards as volume is increasing. Almost 2 million shares today. PR machine is running at full steam starting to get more coverage. You can't ask for much more than that.
Public Venture Capital: Turning Micro-Caps Into Macro Wealth Builders
Mar. 4, 2014 11:41 AM ET | About: ADTM, Includes: CRTO, FUEL
Disclosure: I am long ADTM. (More...)
(Editors' Note: This article covers a micro-cap stock. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.)
Returns from private equity and venture capital investments can be life-changing, but small investors are generally not invited to participate. And a rule of thumb on "Private Placement Memorandum" (PPM) opportunities in private companies is "if it's being offered to you, it's probably not a very good deal." Take it from an investor like me with "a lot of experience," which is a euphemism for "I've made a lot of bad investments."
After getting bitten by a few too many deals that went south, I reached my breaking point. There had to be a better way to play "early-stage" companies without having to be uber-wealthy and/or locked up with indefinite illiquidity.
A couple of years ago I stumbled upon an investment bank that was touting "public venture capital" opportunities -- PVC for short. The big benefit of PVC is that it allows "everyday investors" to gain access at the earliest, most profitable investing stage of companies creating technological breakthroughs. This kind of critical first-stage access -- when companies are trading at pennies, dimes or a couple of dollars -- can take a small nest egg and turn it into life-changing wealth. It is exactly the kind of access most venture capital funds parlay into hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars while small investors only can access after the eagle has soared. Real money is made by buying the future adult eagle when it's just a hatchling!
So these days, I look for micro-cap public companies meeting a certain criteria with total valuations in the millions to tens of millions of dollars that could turn into enterprises worth hundreds of millions (or more). Ultimately, with public venture capital, any investor, large or small, has this opportunity to buy common stock on the open market through their brokerage account and participate in what I've found to be some of the most exciting and lucrative investment opportunities available.
Here is the Public Venture Capital formula I have been using and am now a full on champion for:
1. Find a small, publicly-traded "micro-cap" or "nano-cap" company with potentially disruptive technology and experienced executive teams.
2. Determine the upside by comparing it to a "mature" company in a similar space that has a fully-recognized value in the public markets in the hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. My reasoning is that if a company in a similar industry or market sector has reached this level of success, then the micro-cap with a good management team and strong product has more than a fair shot at exponential growth. I like to look for companies that have a minimum upside of 3-5x the current market capitalization, with the potential for 10-20x returns (or more).
3. Confirm the technology has legs regarding near-term viability for creating a marketable product or service, and confirm that the company can scale to achieve tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in sales. This step involves analyzing the management team for past successes and operational chops.
4. Lastly, the valuation has to offer massive upside in terms of the stock being unknown and/or undervalued. Fortunately, this is not too difficult as most investors seem to follow and invest a few, already well-known stocks without digging deeper to find the future darlings. THIS is where the real money is made!
In this article, and in other future posts in my "Public Venture Capital" series, I'll be sharing micro-cap companies that I have personally selected as meeting all of the criteria above, and that I have chosen to invest in. Each of my picks has a hugely successful, fully-valued public company that shows the upside potential. First, I'll show the mature company from a similar industry and market segment that gives offers a look at the potential the early-stage company could reach if its management team succeeds. Then I detail the early-stage opportunity.
Please keep in mind that just as with investments in private, early-stage companies, investments in PVC is definitely a risky proposition. Risks include competitive risk, business execution risk, funding (or under-funding) risk, and more. So, when contemplating a "public venture capital" investment, please make sure you're aware of the risks and that you can afford to lose the money. And that's why I only allocate 10% of my portfolio for this riskier class of investments. But unlike a private venture capital investment, with PVC you can get liquidity almost any time you want! That said, micro-cap stocks are prone to higher levels of volatility and tend to have fewer shares traded per day. Due to the lack of liquidity, there is the potential for a small amount of volume to significantly impact the stock price. Timely trade execution is also a risk when investing in micro-cap and nano-cap stocks. They tend to be in weak financial positions, which can pose a going-concern risk, and are often in perpetual fund-raising mode, which means dilution. Losses from investing in micro-cap stocks can be substantially greater than in larger-sized stocks due to the risks outlined above.
With that risk disclaimer now behind us, I'm going to start in "Advertising Technology," or "ad-tech" for short. This space is red hot for good reason, particularly companies focused on "programmatic buying" or selling (also known as real-time bidding - "RTB") of digital advertising. See the February 18 Seeking Alpha post, Real-Time Bidding: Disruptive Ad Tech and Rocket Fuel IPO Blasts Off... How To Play The Ad-Tech Boom, which posted September 23, 2013. Dollars spent on old-school advertising formats including radio, newspaper and magazines, and even television advertising are either and radio are either decreasing or facing stagnant growth while digital advertising is growing at an incredibly strong clip.
RocketFuel (FUEL) - website: www.rocketfuel.com, which provides an artificial-intelligence based automated, decision-making platform for online advertising, exploded out of the gates when it went public last September, and has a market capitalization in the $2 Billion range. Meanwhile Criteo (CRTO ) - website: criteo.com, which IPOd last November, has a similar market cap with annual sales of north of $500 Million and steep 57% year-over-year revenue growth. Both FUEL and CRTO are at enormous scale - the early-stage investors and venture capitalists absolutely crushed it on these investments.
My way of playing this sector with a micro-cap investment is through Adaptive Medias, Inc. (OTCQB:ADTM) - website: www.adaptivem.com. Adaptive's competitive advantage is that it offers an end-to-end solution including video content management, ad serving, waterfall management, programmatic buying and selling and yield optimization for its customers. The Irvine, California-based company helps its partner websites, mobile applications, and video content owners achieve the highest ad revenue possible based on audience metrics and optimized ad rotations. Adaptive acquired Ember in December to help round out its technical suite with a real-time bidding platform. By combining RTB capabilities with the recently-announced partnership with OneScreen for video, Adaptive has a strong multi-channel offering across the key platforms of display ads, mobile, and video. The company has been profiled on Seeking Alpha several times in the past - on September 23, 2013, December 10, 2013 and December 18, 2013.
With ADTM trading around $0.10/share, its market cap is approximately $15 Million. The chart looks strong with the stock breaking out above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages …
(click to enlarge)
Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com
The company's revenues grew almost 1400% from Q2 to Q3 last year (Q3 revenues were $373,737), and I believe the company could upwards of $10 Million in 2014 as revenues kick in. This is the kind of growth that makes valuations turn parabolic in a hurry. According to eMarketer, the annual market for mobile ads will be upwards of $29 Billion this year while the online video advertising markets are expected to more than triple by 2017 as video becomes the preeminent delivery channel for digital advertising, reaching over two billion people worldwide. Adaptive is in the epicenter of these burgeoning markets and is poised to gain market share, which should lead to a huge boost in its valuation. One more potential catalyst: Adaptive recently reached an agreement with Gemini Master Fund to retire all outside convertible debt and cancelled four million warrants.
So that's why I'm an investor in Adaptive Medias: there's a substantial upside opportunity and only a few pennies of downside risk, considering that much of the outside financing has come in at $.075/share.
The two most obvious risk factors for Adaptive Media are: 1) this is a highly-competitive industry, and the big players are well capitalized; and 2) the Company will need to raise additional money in order to get to scale, which means "dilution."
Right place right time- this if from a Rocket Fuel article I read today.
the general indication is that digital ads will increasingly move to programmatic platforms due to growing complexity.
Rocket Fuel aims to provide the right ad to the right person at the right time using big data and machine learning. These ads are delivered to customers in an automated, real-time process that learns from the results of the last ad and optimizes the performance. The fourth-quarter results again back up the benefits of this system with revenue surging more than 100% over last year. The results finish off a stellar four-year period where Rocket Fuel grew from virtually nothing to reach revenue of $240 million. For 2013, revenue growth surged 126%.
Huge market opportunity
Even with the stellar growth, Rocket Fuel is only a tiny fish in the massive ocean of advertising. According to the slide below from the recent Rocket Fuel presentation, the advertising market now reaches $490 billion in annual spending, with digital advertising still less than 10% of the total ad market. Even more important, Rocket Fuel is only a tiny fraction of the digital ad market, leaving tons of room for growth.
Likewise, Millennial Media recently reported that revenue surged more than 40% in 2013 to reach $342 million. Millennial recently merged with fellow mobile ad firm Jumptap in order to focus on the fast-growing programmatic segment. After several weak quarters, Millennial smashed expectations in the fourth quarter. In total, the mobile ad market is expected to reach $9.6 billion this year and skyrocket to more than $35 billion in 2017.
Fellow global leader Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO ) is using machine-learning algorithms to improve digital display advertisements. The France-based ad tech firm saw revenue surge 63% during 2013 to reach more than $600 million for the year. Unlike the other firms in the sector, Criteo is actually profitable and generated free cash flow last year.
Complex tech favors programmatic
The recent growth of Rocket Fuel and the resurgence of Millennial Media places an emphasis on the shift in multi-channel advertising toward real-time bidding, or RTB, and programmatic exchanges. Rocket Fuel saw an exceptional 721% growth of mobile, social, and video ads, highlighting the shift in the market that gets more complex on a daily basis.
The issue with these new forms of advertising is that the area of focus constantly shifts within social sites and between mobile devices; a human optimizing a campaign can't possibly keep up. Is it better to serve the ad up to a user on an iOS phone looking at Facebook or the desktop looking at Pinterest?
As an example, Millennial Media estimates that it serves ads to 9,000 mobile device types over a profile base of 625 million users that need to be taken into account in marketing decisions. Rocket Fuel estimates that it can analyze, in real-time, more than 1,000 simultaneous ad campaigns with millions of attributes to make automated decisions on more than 450,000 bid requests per second.
The competitive advantage is clear in the numbers, with Rocket Fuel having a revenue retention rate of 168% in 2013. This means that customers in 2012 spent 68% more on its services during 2013. On top of that, gross margins surged roughly 600 basis points for the year, showing that Rocket Fuel was adding business at more profitable margins.
Bottom line
The key takeaway is that Rocket Fuel is only taking off and it will be years before the explosive growth of programmatic buying of digital ads slows down. Yet, despite the explosive growth and big-data tag, the stock only trades at around five times estimated revenue. Criteo surged to new highs recently, leaving hope that investors are becoming more comfortable with the stocks in the sector after some initial failures. Rocket Fuel could be the next to move higher.
Your CPA doesn't happen to end every meeting with the words "No worries mate"
welcome to the show. This ride will require some patience but I truly believe the upside could be HUGE while the downside is very minimal.
No idea what kind of revenue they will bring in. Can't find any revenue information on Beanstock so I don't know how large they are now.
that's the way business works. Next is they get their friends friends to do business. Keep that going and they have everyone. Exactly how Facebook built their customer list to over a billion users or whatever the number is.
Speaking of things that make you go hmmmmmmm. I was just on the Beanstock Website and noticed the Chief Revenue Officer for Beanstock is Joe Lyons. I recognized that name from somewhere and realized that he is on the Advisory Board for William Nichols Venture Group which is run by Norman Broduer. So these guys all know each other.