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Quick Overview on my sentiment:
ALIM is a small MC, but already has something FDA approved that they are working to sell. While there is some competition they have better results. The ramp to profitability has been a little slower than desired, but they are making steady progress. By Jan1st they will have a need J code which will help to rapidly advance $$ in Q1. The chart looks prime for a big move in the short term with recent highs being in the $4-5 range and a drop not due to fundamentals changing, but investors disappointed with the rate of market penetration. What more can you ask for in a company?
A valid question.
Seems like this board has been abandoned for a long time. I saw the big move today and am wondering if anyone has a good overview of the company.
Wow, that was an exciting day between share price movement and posting battles. Here is to hoping for a better tomorrow.
Nope :( It will not happen in time to help ONCS, but it will happen and will be significant for other companies in the birth stage in the future.
The other significant paradigm change that needs to happen is to incentivize investing to help companies grow versus just the making of money. It may not seem it, but it is a significant issue in the US that has long term national security implications. Not sure this one will happen due to the corrupt political systems.
The good news is that in the coming years the days of MM control in the markets will be on the decline. Eventually if you piss off enough people, one of them has enough power to make things happen. You will get the last laugh as the livelihood of the "criminals" will be eliminated. There are three fronts currently in progress that just have not surfaced yet:
1) Similar to the drive to make money through patent trolling, there will be similar lawsuits against MMs. The ability to hide the borderline legal activity has decreased while the ability to collect data to determine violators has increased. The result is an ability to prove financial loss. Making money through trading is not the only way one can make money in the markets. It will be interesting to see how the "free" market reacts.
2) This would be my biggest concern if I was employed as a MM: The need for MMs is decreasing rapidly. The entire job role will be eliminated as they are simply a middleman that is no longer needed. If I was an MM I would be doing everything I could to show that I am needed instead of pissing people off.
3) Regulatory adjacencies are well aware of key issues. One day you may wake up to a pleasant headline.
The cadence of information continues to increase as predicted with a few surprises thrown in. Reminds me of my trip to NY last week. Just before takeoff the engines began to purr. The question is, when will they hit the throttle? Will it be this week or later in the month? My guess is that the most significant news is still down stream. The news this week will just allow bigger players to play. My recommendation is that the MMs let it run lest they get burned.
Everyone should quit worrying about catalysts. That implies that the run will be a short term reaction. If that is the case, than eventually the reactants will run out and things will crash. In case you had not noticed, the company continues to build itself.
Instead of catalysts, view the milestones as a foundation for a building. As each floor is built it acts as support for the next. At this point, those who are smart can tell that the building will be a skyscraper that reaches to the heavens as the foundation is being well planned with quite a large base. As Punit stated earlier this year, 2015 will be an action packed year of data results. The recent PRs give an idea of how much data is expected. Some of you still can not see it, and by the time you do, it will be too late. The time to invest is now, before they begin to lay the higher levels.
For those who did not read the Nature article I will repost the PR and a link to the PDF. Many of you may not realize it, but publishing in Nature is a BIG deal:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20141126005700/en/Nature-Publication-Co-Authored-Robert-H.-Pierce-Chief#.VH38E8kvA18
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7528/pdf/nature13954.pdf
4) or it can be used to determine if a trial will succeed before they spend $100-900M dollars, thereby allowing them to concentrate on that which is very likely to be successful. Who knows, maybe one day the FDA may allow approval based on more criteria than just expensive trials. It is the difference between putting a blind fold on and trying to hit a target a mile away and using a laser guide.
Let me ask => If you were Merck/BMY or one of the other PD1 producers how much would you value being able to predict ahead of time success or failure? I am pretty sure you could License that capability for quite a bit of money.
Apparently the market is unimpressed with the Perkin Elmer collaboration. Maybe they remember the Hubble Telescope fiasco. The reality is that Perkin Elmer is a very well respected company and has many connections. This is just another example of how ONCS continues to surround themselves with world class scientists and collaborators. The investment community currently does not understand the implications. Eventually they will and by that time they will need to spend a pretty penny.
There are a few scenarios that get us to $20 this year. However, most of them are unlikely. The one real possibility is very good P2B results. Imagine the scenario at about the 6 month mark preliminary P2B results are outstanding. If the combo caused 90%+ systemic response rates the FDA would likely stop the trial given the known safety profile. The stock would rise to 20+ overnight on hype alone. I would not count on this scenario as real world results will most likely be less than the mouse models. The far fetched schemes to get to $20 would have odds of < 1%. This one is much better though as there is a very sound scientific rational. If forced, I would place the odds at about 10%, which is actually outstanding.
Interesting way to announce and interesting timing. As always, someone knew in advance. Now let's see what happens with the new indication trial ;). Pressure and time will eventually cause a pop.
JJ posting is correlated to a negative drop in price. Given what we know December is going to be like in terms of news I find the price action today disturbing. Who knows, maybe it will turn around.
I listened to the presentation from yesterday and what I think will happen is that the P2B will have PD1 from a partner and that there will be a milestone payment with official designation of a "strategic" partner for the P3. Anything more during the P2B (i.e. cash payments) and I would be ecstatic.
I believe licensing is a real possibility. Typically, ONCS has broadcast what is going on many months in advance. If you pay attention to their presentations key words get slipped in that later come to fruition. Back in the summer and then culminating in the fall licensing started to show up in job descriptions. In addition, they added council. The logic says that even if it doesn't happen, it is being seriously discussed. It could be one of the December surprises, although I'd bet on partnerships first.
Our real news has finally started. It is very clear that ONCS has been holding onto developments to create momentum. It has been very clear for many months that they are hard a work and yet there was no news. If we do not get news on the new trial this week, than there is a possibility that it might be more important than the P2B.
They are acting as if their goal is to build a cadence of events that increase shareholder value, and then to drop the bomb to launch the price to a level in which they can transition to another exchange. If the new trial is not announced this week, than it likely does not get announced until after the P2B. In my mind, this would mean that they expect it to have a bigger impact on value than the P2B. It should be fun to see what transpires over the next 4 weeks.
This should be telling:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704444604576173053709393900
I never use voicemail for two reasons: 1) I do not have the time during normal business hours for phone conversations. My schedule is normally packed from first thing in the morning until I leave the office. Fortunately, during many meetings I can access the web, which is a more convenient method. 2) Voice conversations have no meat. I prefer questions be answered in writing. If I remember correctly based on what you described you do, you should understand the merit of #2.
You really must be on a !#!@# list as I have always received a reply. Sometimes it takes a day or two, but I have always been given a cordial response when I have asked specific questions that I want answered. Maybe you are triggering a spam filter?
Punit mentions that this trip is to meet with investors. I guess he could also be doing more business than mentioned. Either way, it bodes well as packing a schedule like that to meet with investors just confirms the timing. I am familiar with Boston as my undergraduate degree is from that area. Most of the other locations I can understand => Chicago, NYC twice, Boston all would have lots of investing community. However, Dallas, Denver, Milwaukie and Minneapolis? Those are the ones that are less obvious to me. Why would he be traveling to those locations?
Interesting itinerary from Punit's twitter:
"Just landed in crisp ORD, kicking off 7 straight days of @Oncosec investor meetings ORD > MKE > NYC > MSP > DFW > DEN > JFK > BOS | #build"
Some are pretty obvious to me as to why he would be there. Others, not so much. Anyone care to enlighten me as to what is at each location?
Wow. The board has become a mad house. Everyone calm down. Good times are ahead.
Obviously the goal is to have Institutions looking when the treasure chest is opened. The fact that these are planned implies a well thought out strategy. The good news is that the waiting is just about over, the chart looks great, and significant SP appreciation is on the way.
Yep, they still have lots of news to release and I suspect there will still be a few surprises. The window is really getting small now. Based on the historical trend it was easy to predict some type of news this week. However, this is just an appetizer. There is an above average chance of getting more news either later this week or next week.
Great job! Looks like we will get news between the 7th and 15th.
You're right... better to use vague terms. Vague terms and the use of terms like "confident" don't ever mislead shareholders. There is no possible way to quantify confidence level in what you believe will happen. I mean, if you ask what will happen and you have done no DD you have the same confidence level as if you have done DD. Clearly none of us know 100% what will happen (you are right we are not internal to the company), that does not mean one can not infer through DD what is more or less likely to occur. As the PPS rises I am 100% confident that this board will become a mess not because a poster quantified his belief, but because there will be a much larger group of people with a larger set of motivations. Crap, maybe that should be 95% confident instead :)
I reserve the right to guess and make up statistics all I want, hence I am on a message board. Here are a few for you: 90% of people don't understand statistics and therefore believe they are made up. The other 10% use statistics to make informed decisions. < 1% of people understand quantum and probability, and therefore live in an improbable world. 75% of people believe common sayings are fact. 99.9% of MB posters just post crap, therefore never treat or interpret any post as fact.
1) There is a 95% chance that the new indication will be a combo trial
2) The new trial either needs to be announced within the next two weeks or the next window is the Dec 20th timeframe.
3) I believe there is 90%+ chance of the new indication being with a different partner than the P2B. There is a reason you need in house council. Also, consider what happened around ASCO with the sudden need to acquire new funding, Punit saying he could not wait to explain (which he never did), them mentioning plans to begin investigation of a new indication, and the use of "partners" in plural during recent over view talks. It all adds up to a different partner than the originally planned P2B, which in my opinion got somewhat delayed due to the labeling (i.e. partner 1 is Merck).
4) The other potential short term news: If you assume they have done nothing over the last year besides planning when they have 2 research teams than there would be nothing else to release. I am going to assume those teams have been hard at work and eventually they will tell us what they are doing :)
At this point all we can do is wait, hope, and speculate. Either we start in the next 2 weeks, or we start in about 4 weeks. The good news is that we now have at least 1 definitive date on when we will get new data and learn some of the plans! GLTA.
Yes, it is unlikely they discuss the P2B topic until December. However, there are other topics that still need disclosure to the public. There are only two more weeks in November in which news can be released and December is very limited as the P2B will be the topic for most of the beginning of the month. I believe there will be significant (i.e. not announcement of a conference) news within the next couple weeks. You have to remember that the company is hyper aware of what is going on as this is a very important inflection point in the company's history. To think that they have not planned out a strategy and that they will just remain quiet as the stock price sinks seems illogical. It is one of the reasons why I think furby made a mistake. If not for his mistake the price might already be over 0.60.
You know immunotherapy is starting to hit the mainstream when it ends up on webmd:
http://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20141104/immunotherapy-brings-new-hope-cancer-fight
Also, notice that in November there is a very strong uptick in number of searches for ONCS (and it is only the 4th). The last time we spiked this high was back in March when we hit 0.97. It might mean nothing, but interest is definitely growing:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=oncs
The answer is a bit complex, but try this fun activity:
1) Take a calendar for Nov/Dec. Cross out every Friday as it is reserved for bad news and I doubt they will release good news before a weekend.
2) Cross out the beginning of December as that will be reserved for the P2B release schedule and the directly associated milestones. I doubt they would double up on orthogonal news.
3) Remove days which would be bad due to holidays.
4) Remove other days that might be bad for misc reasons. For instance, today is election day - bad day for news as it will be overwhelmed by election coverage.
5) Start filling in known conference dates, key dates for other companies, related FDA meetings, etc...
6) Start plotting the increase in external articles
7) Start plotting increase in MB activity (this site / other sites)
It really starts to limit when other data/information can be released. When is the other information besides just the P2B to be released? Not to mention there are some things that are more under the radar that are likely to get released this year. All of those things need to come out by the end of the year. I do not know for sure, but there is a VERY high jump in probability from the 7th to 15th. I do not believe they will be quiet until the 4/5th as it makes more sense to start momentum and then follow through during all of December.
Remember, I am talking about the 2nd condition not the P2B. Also, I did not imply that a partner is not already done, only that we are waiting on something to do with the partner. This could be drug approval, publication of data, etc...
Either way, I think we start to hear our first real news between Nov7th and 15th. I am not sure if it will be related to this or one of the other items on the list. I could be wrong.
While we are waiting, let's talk about the 2nd condition. I am trying to determine why they have not disclosed plans yet.
1) Are they waiting on the FDA for approval of the plan? Seems unlikely given how long they have talked about it.
2) Is the wait due to a partner and potentially waiting for a key milestone that the partner needs to achieve?
3) Are they all set to go and like the P2B just waiting for a conference to announce? If so, does this not imply there is data to go along with the indication?
4) Maybe there is still more planning to do, but this seems unlikely given how long they have talked about it.
Anyone have any other valid theories? I choose door #3 with a little bit of door #2.
If you were planning on flipping would you want to stealthily sell shares or drop a bomb to reverse the momentum? I make no assumptions on anyone's intelligence nor their motivations. In this case furby might be inexperienced or he might be brilliant or he might just be manipulating the stock to where he wants it.
The math is actually fairly simple. Let's assume that the stock retraces to the midline. That means it will go to around 0.45. If you sell at 0.52 that is a gain of about 15%. Of course this assume you are right and that the stock makes it back to 0.45. Let's assume you sold 100,000 shares. This means you now have 115000 shares. If you stop the run and stock does not make it above $2 we likely settle at around 1.5. This means you have about $172,000. However, if you get it to run to $2 and only have 100,000 shares you have $200,000. If it gets to $2 it will not stop as an uplist will enable bigger buyers. This means you have >> $172,000. It all just depends on what effect you think the selling will have on the stock price. If you believe you can stop the short term run and cause significant short term retracement and that it has no impact on the longer term price, than yes... you are better off. However, if it does, you might have just screwed yourself out of significant gains. Also, take into account that he is only selling a small portion of his portfolio of ONCS. This means to gain that 15% (on 10% of his shares) he risks not making as high a profit on the other 90% + potentially not even on his extra 15%. Given the timeline of events and the potential for surprises (to the upside) it is why I say he has balls of steel. He may very well have called it perfectly, and he has enough shares to do some of his own manipulation. On the other hand, he can not control outside influences.
If you really have as many shares as you say, wouldn't you have been better off letting it run and working to push the price towards $2, especially given the technicals? If the price can get to $2 and there is an uplist, you will easily make more than if you try to play a swing (that may not happen). Just a thought.
Man, you've got some balls of steel. You hold this long and then decide to flip? I wish you luck, and hopefully greed does not come to bite you in the but. I've considered the same for many months, but have enough shares that I will be very happy when this begins to run. There are just to many potential surprises to take the risk at this time.
It is a great confirmation that they are not looking to raise $$ at this time. Typically, you want to give someone fairly new a can't lose assignment. The question is, will they make it easy for the first time presenter by releasing news.
The L2 does not matter as we all know a run is coming. We know significant news could start flowing any day as there is a lot that still needs to be announced. There are major milestones packed for the end of the year with the CEO adamantly confirming they will be met. In addition, yesterday there was news on Opdivo from BMY, which has some key December milestones. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a nice little Christmas gift for ONCS. I've been watching what is going on there since seeing them show up for the first time in ONCS slides back in Sept. Even if I am wrong it is still great for ONCS. Remember, ONCS is synergistic with any PD1. The bigger the PD1 market grows, the bigger the market for ONCS.
Two other interpretations:
1) He is sky high
2) He is in heaven
Both of these are very positive. I get the feeling good things are coming.