Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
besv can be good but very tough to get rid of shares as volume drops to nothing when the buyer(s) are done. This move was precipitated by someone who wanted 50k shares late last week. When they are done you can expect it to head south, it always does. The caveat is this, supposedly some interesting aquisitions to be announced - if others besides the latest buyer(s) like this news then there could still be room for gain.
Time lapse of turbine assembly...
http://www.gepower.com/businesses/ge_wind_energy/en/downloads/ew_manufacturing.mov
Google Earth image of DeWind turbine manufaturing site. Note proximity to freighters docked at Lubeck on the Baltic...
Another picture of D8 model in CTC Lobby...
Picture of D8 model in CTC Lobby...
Here's the link to the article written by AEP on ACCC:
http://tdworld.com/mag/power_line_upgrade_features/
Text:
Line Upgrade Features Low-Sag Conductor
Jul 1, 2006 12:00 PM
by James Berger, American Electric Power
If Thomas Edison's first electric system under the cobblestones of lower Manhattan, were still the industry standard, our industry would be a curiosity shop. These direct-current mains consisted of two 20-ft (6-m) sections of half-moon-shaped solid copper bars, separated by insulation, inserted into iron tubes filled with hot liquid asphalt. Prior to installation in 1881/1882, Edison himself considered making even more changes to these problematic mains, which had been tested and modified many times in Menlo Park, New Jersey, U.S. Obviously, Edison's first-generation distribution systems are curiosities, properly housed in museums. This is because of many, many technological advances and changes. But change is never easy; it is never routine. To change is to shake hands with risk, your constant and unforgiving companion in any new venture.
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS
American Electric Power (AEP; Columbus, Ohio, U.S.) recently confronted a situation involving an upgrade to its transmission system in Texas that cried out for a new approach that pushed the envelope. The potential rewards were great, and AEP carefully balanced them against the perceived risks.
AEP's 15.7-mile (25-km) 138-kV transmission line from its Pleasanton Substation to CPS Energy's portion of the line south of San Antonio, Texas, U.S., had become a power-delivery constraint. CPS Energy, the municipal electric system serving San Antonio, had upgraded its line from the Bexar County line into Leon Creek Substation with new structures and Drake 795 kcmil aluminum-conductor-steel-reinforced (ACSR) conductor. AEP's portion of the line was a 50-year-old wood H-frame line with Partridge 266.8 kcmil ACSR conductor.
The conventional choice for this project would be to replace the conductor with a much larger one that would require replacing more than 75% of the 139 existing structures. The tantalizing alternative would be to continue using the existing structures and replace the conductor with technology wire that promised to have limited conductor sag at elevated operating temperatures.
If AEP went with the conventional choice, structures would have to be replaced because of the increased mechanical load and sag of the much larger conductor. However, the new technology conductor would not increase mechanical loads, and would meet ground-clearance requirements with existing attachment elevations. Using existing structures would shorten construction and outage time. Furthermore, optimizing an existing right-of-way is a key element of AEP's transmission strategy. Employing new technology also supports the company's vision of maintaining leadership in technical innovation.
NEW TECHNOLOGY CONDUCTOR
The reported attributes of the new aluminum-conductor-composite-core/trapezoidal-wire (ACCC/TW) conductor are very positive and allow continued use of existing structures while providing the required incremental circuit capacity. ACCC/TW has a lightweight, high-strength composite core wrapped with fully annealed trapezoidal-shaped aluminum strands. ACCC core is a 30-to-70 resin-to-fiber ratio composite produced in a pultrusion die. The structural core consists of carbon fibers wrapped with a “shell” of continuous glass fibers, a hybrid polymer matrix. This ACCC core has more than 1.3 times the tensile strength of the same size ACSR core.
The composite core's coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) is four times lower than the steel core of ACSR. The result is an expected sixfold reduction in high-temperature sag. The composite core's low weight allows more conductor for the same weight. Plus, soft-tempered aluminum improves conductivity. Trapezoidal-shaped wires eliminate the interstitial spaces, characteristic of round strands, and increase the conductor aluminum cross-sectional area.
The bottom line for all these attractive mechanical and electrical attributes — in addition to no tower replacements — was US$600,000 in savings. This potential cost savings led AEP to undertake an extensive review of ACCC/TW.
The review process became one of extensive due diligence. AEP had to get comfortable with the new technology and manage the risks of applying the technology to its transmission system. Due diligence confirmed the advantages of ACCC/TW manufactured by General Cable Corp. (Highland Heights, Kentucky, U.S.) and Composite Technology Corp. (CTC; Irvine, California, U.S.). Another plus was a three-year full material and labor replacement warranty and an optional additional seven-year warranty covering material and labor to remove and replace wire. Longevity and durability testing to determine fatigue, brittleness, aging and environmental resistance helped bolster confidence.
EPRI's testing of ACCC/TW conductor hardware at high temperatures gave AEP even more reassurance. Ice-loading capability was a concern and could limit ACCC/TW's thermal advantages. Because conductor icing is limited in south Texas, AEP's Leon Creek project was able to take full advantage of ACCC/TW's reduced sag at elevated temperatures.
To quote Sherlock Holmes's esteemed associate Dr. Watson in The Hound of the Baskervilles: “Has anything escaped me? I trust there is nothing of consequence which I have overlooked.”
AEP decided to go with the new conductor and reap the savings. This would be the longest ACCC/TW transmission line in the United States — in fact, the world.
CONSTRUCTION SURPRISE
During the conductor pulling operation, installation crews experienced three breaks of the ACCC/TW conductor. The first break occurred at the outset of wire pulling when the conductor jumped off the tensioner bull wheel and wrapped around the tensioner axle. This event was plainly an operator error. During this specific operation, the operator should have applied the reel brake. Instead, the operator lessened brake tension, and the loosened wire left its track on the drum and broke when it was bent too severely around the tensioner axle. In this case, wire already pulled for this particular phase was simply eliminated, and pulling resumed with fresh wire.
The second and third wire breaks were more troubling and required in-depth forensics. Break two occurred as wire was pulled into a span and being tensioned for sagging. Break three, involving several breaks in the core, occurred less than two weeks later in the middle phase, after all three phases had been pulled in, tied off and the crew had left for the day.
POST-MORTEM
CTC submitted samples of broken wire to the University of Southern California's (USC's) Composites Center for testing. USC conducted thermal and mechanical tests on the damaged ACCC/TW wire. The post-mortem on the breaks included:
Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) to determine the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the failed cores versus a control group.
Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) on the two damaged resin compositions to determine differences in their reactivity as possible causes.
Three-point short beam shear tests on the control group and damaged composite parts to measure shear strength.
From these tests, the USC Composites Center determined that there were no significant differences in the thermal and mechanical (tensile and flexural) properties of the control group and the failed composite samples.
Based on these tests, CTC attributed the failures to excessive bending of the core during installation. “What events transpired that caused the excessive bending may never be known,” CTC concluded in its own review.
To quote Sherlock Holmes in The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet: “It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”
RESOLUTION
Conductor pulling had reached the last few spans when the breaks occurred. Based on the forensic test results, it was decided to leave in place the 14 miles (22 km) of ACCC/TW wire that had been installed, but not to install any ACCC/TW conductor from reels associated with the conductor breaks. This was done as a precautionary measure, not knowing the manufacturing history of this conductor. Standard ACSR Drake conductor was installed for the final mile, and the line was energized on schedule.
Based on all the evidence and experience to date, AEP plans to replace the final mile of Drake ACSR with ACCC/TW by the year's end.
ACCC/TW is a product with high-temperature sag advantages over existing ACSR technology. After one major project, AEP's knowledge of ACCC/TW has grown, as has its active interest. In fact, the new Leon Creek-Pleasanton line is another important step in the company's embrace, and management, of new technology.
James J. Berger began his career in 1984 with Central Power & Light Inc. in distribution planning, operations, design and construction. In 1992, Berger became director of Standards and Compatible Units with Central and South West Services Inc. Since joining American Electric Power in 2000 as director of Transmission Line Projects Engineering, Berger's responsibilities have included standardizing materials used in designing distribution electrical systems, developing corporatewide compatible units for use in the corporate work management system, developing an outage reporting system and implementing a mobile computer-based system for use by service personnel. Berger holds a BSEE degree from Texas A&M University and is a registered professional engineer in Texas. JJBerger@AEP.com
MANUFACTURER RESPONSE
When CTC and General Cable heard about conductor breaks at the Leon Creek installation, the team immediately began investigating possible causes. A thorough examination of manufacturing and quality disciplines was undertaken and all records were assembled.
The first break was a result of the conductor jumping off the bull-wheel tensioner and wrapping around the axle; therefore, it was easy to resolve. The other two breaks were not so obvious and did not become apparent until after conductor tensioning.
Extensive forensic investigations confirmed that the core break was a result of being bent around too tight of a radius. However, questions still remained:
What caused the core to bend to such a degree?
Could some type of production anomaly have caused a weakening of the core's flexural strength, and if so, how could that have been prevented?
What could have possibly caused damage to the core during the wrapping or shipping process to compromise its strength?
Improper installation methods seemed the obvious explanation, especially considering the bull-wheel incident and that more than a dozen other installation projects had been completed without similar incidents prior to the Leon Creek installation. However, definitive evidence was not available or apparent.
The General Cable/CTC team undertook an intensive review of all its manufacturing, quality-assurance and field-support procedures. The outcome of the review resulted in several proactive measures. Because field training is mission critical, a new installation manual was developed to help field supervisors avoid potential problems. Linemen training, preconstruction meetings and construction support measures were stepped up. Enhanced inspection devices were added throughout the manufacturing process.
Additionally, CTC instituted more stringent manufacturing controls including: laser sensors for filament in-feed tooling, redundant thermocouples to ensure proper die curing temperatures and a novel in-line continuous flex test to ensure that every millimeter of core produced meets all strength requirements.
As a result of these enhanced quality-control measures, CTC, General Cable and AEP are more confident than ever in the performance capabilities of ACCC.
Sorry, no pics of the model. It really is high quality - looks like it came out of a science and industry museum or the lobby of Rolls Royce or Pratt & Whitney jet engines.
Indeed CTC has been shorted in the past however IMO most "negative" selling since going into and out of BK has been people not happy with CTC for one reason or another.
Congress Weighs In On Shorts
Liz Moyer, 06.27.06, 11:10 AM ET
Former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigator Gary Aguirre is slated to testify at a hearing Wednesday as the Senate Judiciary Committee takes up the issue of hedge funds and manipulative short-selling.
Aguirre has complained to several members of Congress that he was fired last year from his job at the SEC for aggressively pursuing his investigation of possible insider trading at Pequot Capital Management, one of the largest and most prestigious hedge funds in the business.
Pequot Capital has denied wrongdoing. Aguirre says he was investigating several trades the fund executed in 2001, particularly two trades that netted Pequot some $18 million in profits when General Electric Capital announced a deal to purchase Heller Financial in July 2001.
The Judiciary Committee, chaired by Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter, is examining the relationship between hedge funds and securities analysts to see if there are abuses that can open the door to market manipulation. The tentative witness list was posted on the committee's Web site in advance of the hearing.
Overstock.com, the discount online retailer, has accused an independent research firm and a hedge fund of working together to drive down its shares and those of other companies by publishing negative research and shorting the shares before that research is made public.
Overstock.com Chief Executive Patrick Byrne has made manipulative short-selling his cause célèbre, pushing for reforms that make it more difficult for traders to short stocks without taking delivery on them (so-called "naked shorting") and demanding more transparency in the $10 billion annual business of securities lending.
Byrne will not attend Wednesday's hearing, but another influential member of the Judiciary Committee, Orrin Hatch, the Republican from Utah--the home state of Overstock.com--has been examining issues raised by his constituent.
Utah's governor signed into law last month a controversial measure that would force brokerages in the state to pay issuers if they handle trades that fail to deliver and then do not report those failures to the state securities department within 24 hours.
The Securities Industry Association, the lobbying group for the brokerage industry, is considering whether to argue that the Utah law be struck down or is subject to preemption by federal securities laws.
Other witnesses slated to testify Wednesday include Matt Friedrich, principal deputy assistant attorney general at the U.S. Department of Justice; Richard Blumenthal, the Connecticut state attorney general; Owen Lamont, a professor of finance at Yale University's school of management, who has published several papers about short-selling; and Joseph McLaughlin, a partner at Sidley & Austin appearing on behalf of the Managed Fund Association, a trade group for hedge funds.
FWIW - The wind tower model which had been sitting in the CTC lobby for a couple of years has been replaced by an absolutely stunning cut-a-way replica of a DeWind turbine made in the CTC Wind model shop in Germany. It's approx. 1/50th scale. Quite a work of art. I had the chance to meet with Michael Porter...seems like a good guy with loads of energy and initiative.
I just had an interesting conversation with a colleague. He gave me a report on the IEEE conference in Texas from the perspective of the director of transmission of a Southwestern utility. One of the goals in attending the conference was to sit down with both 3M and CTC. He wanted to review the different technologies and get a report on the progress each company has had toward commercializing their products. It was no contest, the CTC technical people as well as the product itself were determined to be superior to 3M.
Beating out 3M isn't a surprise to anyone who closely follows the technology. Some small time goof-ball on RB has made comments regarding CTC's technology being inferior to ACCR in the IEEE HTLS article. He can't comprehend and understand the value proposition that ACCC offers over ACCR, is pissed off at the company, or he wants a lower share price.
Interesting note...this utility already made a commitment on a short line using 3M while CTC was in BK land. Winning over an existing 3M customer bodes well for CTC!
I will speak directly with the transmission guy and summarize here early next week.
great picture!!!!!
Kind of like David and Goliath.
MGY - I love that article. The picture of the various cables says it all. Very subtle, reminds me of New York New York lyrics:
"Start spreading the news...
...And find I'm king of the hill - top of the heap"
Here's another published today in the CalTrade Report...
COMPOSITE TECH FINALIZING UK ACQUISITION
IRVINE - 05/31/06 - The Composite Technology Corporation is in the process of ironing out the details of its acquisition of UK-headquartered EU Energy plc.
The principals held a meeting recently to form a joint committee to advise on the management of the on going business of EU until the acquisition is completed.
According to sources, the committee will decide on several issue including the selection of a US assembly plant from a short list of three prospective sites; ensure that production capacity at the plant would accommodate Composite's 2007-2008 planned reserved production, valued at more than $1 billion in revenues; and integrate both companies' accounting and financial control systems and plan for the introduction of Sarbanes Oxley reporting and auditing requirements.
Composite Technology Corp. develops, manufactures, and sells products made of high-performance composite materials to create applications for the generation, transmission and distribution of electrical power.
EU Energy plc is a Milton Keynes, UK-based alternative energy group.
In July 2005, the company acquired DeWind GmbH to develop the market for DeWind wind energy turbines worldwide including India, Eastern Europe, and, soon, Canada and the US.
According to industry sources, EU Energy plc plans to establish assembly plants in its local markets.
Good one MGY!!!
Then I suggest you discover the facts rather than pass along inaccurate information that leads to false expectations. Perhaps Wildbird is your source.
Yours words in a response to a post of mine...
"There will also be partnership announced where-in the cost of the two turbine plants will not require capital expenditure by CPTC."
They are not close to a partnership and it would be foolhardy to believe this is an imminent decision.
"Expect also very large circuit mile orders from foreign users."
Foreign inquiries, yes, large circuit mile orders imminent, no.
"China is positive but not yet buying."
I could have sworn JFE (CTC's customer in China) has placed orders.
GE's Ga-Ga Over China
By Tim Beyers (TMF Mile High)
May 30, 2006
Some CEOs just never take a break. Consider the case of General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Jeff Immelt. On Monday, while millions were celebrating Memorial Day in the States, Immelt was in China, talking up his company's commitment to the region.
GE has signed an agreement with the Chinese government that calls for a $500 million commitment to produce non-polluting technologies. Some of that amount could go to a research center in Shanghai that currently employs more than 2,000 engineers and which the Associated Press says GE is thinking about expanding.
Clean energy persists as a common theme throughout the deals that were cut during Immelt's visit. That makes sense. GE is, after all, one of the world's largest producers of technology for wind and solar power. And Chinese firms, like their U.S. counterparts, will be forced to face the environmental fallout that comes from a burgeoning population and economic growth. GE may be able to profitably aid the transition. Immelt certainly thinks so: He believes his company's $5 billion in sales from the region will double by 2010.
More interesting to me, however, is GE's collaboration with the Chinese government. The company says it will provide management and leadership training for 2,500 individuals from the industry and the government. I find that startling. Remember: Aside from Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), GE has been perhaps the greatest management training ground in the history of business. Current CEOs Bob Nardelli of Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Jim McNerney of Boeing (NYSE: BA) are just two highly successful GE alums.
A GE pedigree won't offer entrepreneurs a free pass, of course. But with the firm's history of success in grooming leaders, combined with a market that's seeing increased venture investment daily, I suddenly find it easy to believe that the next Jack Welch won't be anything like the current one -- especially when it comes to his address.
Wildbrid - Why not admit you can't answer my questions because you don't know?
It's simple, Harrier talked to CTC IR and inaccurately posted some of what was told to him. Somehow international inquiries for ACCC turned into orders and discussions turned into a partnership agreement.
Why not tell it like it is rather than like it isn't?
OK Wildbird, here's your chance...
Harrier says: "There will also be partnership announced where-in the cost of the two turbine plants will not require capital expenditure by CPTC".
My question to you: With who and by when?
Wouldn't it be more prudent to keep the info to yourself or at least not postulate something as fact which has yet to even be evaluated?
------
Harrier says: "China is positive but not yet buying."
My question to you: Has JFE placed orders with CTC? If the answer is yes I rest my case.
------
Harrier says: "Expect also very large circuit mile orders from foreign users."
My question to you: With who and by when?
Wouldn't it be more appropriate to say "CTC has been in discussions with" rather than "expect large orders"? Sworn testimony In BK court by GC management and CTC sales indicated multiple orders were imminent. It's been 8 months and they have yet to become orders. I'm not saying GC and CTC were lying - I'm saying you do all a disservice by stating something that may not happen for a very long time.
I have no disrespect for Harrier and he has the right to say what he wants. But as soon as he said it, Golrusher questioned what was said. Why did he question? Because lots of stuff gets posted that never comes to fruition. Much of that information comes from the company. I could be wrong but I doubt Harrier was told CTC was going to get a large circuit mile order and I doubt he was told CTC had chosen a partner to manufacture the turbines. Are they in discussions, probably, but will it happen and how long will it take?
Quotes do not equal Orders and Discussion does not equal Partnership. They are precursors and nothing more.
I have been involved for 5 years and have learned the lesson. Nothing happens when CTC wants it to happen and when their SH hope it will happen. Multiply by months and in some cases years.
harrior - I don't want to rain or your parade but nothing happens quickly. Don't we wish it would!!!
Responses to your 4 comments.
1. Probably. Don't count on the timing.
2. Possibly, but definitely not close to your words "there will be a partnership". Investigating the possibility of using contract manufacturing is a better term.
3. Don't expect large orders any time soon. We have been "expecting large orders from foreign users" for a while. At some point they will happen. As CTC becomes more active marketing/selling overseas they will run into some large opportunities and quote the business. There is a huge delta in time and reality between quoting and getting the order.
ACCC is not ACSR. It's a big decision to go with the newer technology cable. First you have to prove the HTLS technology makes sense. Then you have to beat out your HTLS competition as well as ACSS/TW. ACSS/TW is tough to beat cause it's like the old stuff but carries considerably more power. I envision many decisions being made with the half way "careful" solution - ACSS/TW. There is no reason to debate the merits of ACSS/TW vs ACCC. Accept the fact that ACSS/TW is sold every day. The last ACCC order announced was months ago.
IF, IF, IF, IF you are selected it takes a minimum of months (and in some cases years) to engineer a line to a point where a utility knows how much cable, connectors, transformers, poles/towers are needed not to mention construction costs before a budget is established. Then an order is placed. Use AEP as an example. Everyone was talking imminent order 3 months ago. 3 months is imminent when it comes to the engineering but not imminent to SH and sales guys.
I would change your statement to, CTC has the opportunity to quote large orders, not "Expect large orders" with no time frame indicated. As for "China not buying yet". I beg to differ, China is buying, not yet though in quantities that SH dream about. Just the fact that BW went to China is huge. Go back and read posts from a year ago. Someone blinked at the OK corral and it wasn't CTC. Expect a steady stream of business as they lead up to the big ones.
4. Maybe.
Soft close terminology comes from accounting. Specifically, "when journal entries may be allowed to periods previously considered closed with the confidence that you can create corrected financial statements and that balances brought forward are corrected".
How does this relate to CTC/EU? Loosely, the EU/CTC deal could be consummated with the understanding that although the official date of closure (hard close) will be at some point in the future, the accounting will revert to the soft close date where the expenses/revenues from the soft close date forward will belong to CTC Wind.
I'm sure an accountant could better explain or correct.
Soft close is also a sales term that means something totally different but it does not relate to this CTC/EU transaction.
Bottom line - a soft close is damn close to the real deal.
isn't that why BW is there?
Pretty funny isn't he! The GIFT issue is not worth the discussion.
Gina - 2 things.
CRAC
There is no worry on the CRAC patent. CTC is not required to pay the license because of pending patents on ACCC. CTC may however elect to pay a portion of ACCC. I believe at the time of the settlement they intended to do so. I doubt they would pay now since the rights have been sold and the people now in possession are violating the agreement.
But who cares, even if there were no agreement, CRAC is a far cry from ACCC as well as more costly and more difficult to make.
NZ
GC is the dominant player in NZ. If ACCC makes sense for that project it will happen.
For some time I have been using that presentation to introduce people to ACCC within the utility world as well as potential investors...it's great!
No, ACCR is the 3M Aluminum Matrix Composite Conductor Technology. ACCR - Aluminium Cable Composite Reinforced.
ACSR - Aluminium Cable Steel Reinforced
Another:
"Wilcoxson/Porter better hustle cuz there is less than 7 months left this yr to set up the announced prototype Dewind 8.2 in Europe and open a US production plant.
All this and another EU "Framework Agreement" (whatever the 'ell that is). It boggles the mind."
Sorry to bore those that know what a Framework Agreement is. Obviously this CTC investor doesn't understand them - he has never been good on DD, just good at complaining.
Framework Agreements:
They are commonplace in Europe.
They are used in a variety of ways.
They are common within the European utility community to define business to business / supplier relationships
From a multipage document from the UK Dept. of Energy:
What is a Framework Agreement?
The current Utilities Directive, and the proposed consolidated public sector Directive, both define a framework agreement as an agreement with suppliers, the purpose of which is to establish the terms governing contracts to be awarded during a given period, in particular with regard to price and quantity. In other words, a framework agreement is a general term for agreements with suppliers which set out terms and conditions under which specific purchases (call-offs) can be made throughout the term of the agreement. The framework agreement may, itself, be a contract to which the EC procurement rules apply. This would be the case where the agreement places an obligation, in writing, to purchase goods, works or services for pecuniary interest (or consideration in UK legal terminology). For this type of agreement, there is no particular problem under the EC rules, as it can be treated in the same way as any other contract.
Another statement:
"The product is as great as ever. I question the chance for significant gains for the shareholders unless there are dramatic changes. If Benton can't sell "novel" wire, with a track record not to be emulated, why would one assume the Market thinks he can sell AND DELIVER "novel" windmills?"
A real lack of understanding in this statement. The utility industry hasn't been ready for 5 years. It is now just coming around and CTC should be able to leverage their relationship with GC, excellent test results, and success with AEP & PacifiCorp to their advantage. What would this person say about 3M's lack of success selling ACCR? ACCC was introduced 2 years behind ACCR yet smart money would say ACCC has surpassed ACCR.
ACCC vs. ACSR Facts:
ACCC has more installs
ACCC has more significant customers
ACCC replaced ACCR at EDF (world's largest manager of grid)
ACCC is available in all sizes. ACCR has 2.
Also, FERC has yet to define "reliable" as it relates to the 2005 Energy Act, and we all know ACCC is written into the policy. Many utilities are waiting the the Feds to tell them what to do.
Comments to a statement...
"I disagree with your prior posts when you said that the run up is not due to insider information leaking. The market cap doesn't move up 20%+ in a week for nothing."
IMO - The stock is now trading normally. In the past 20% was common with CTC. Normal was drift up, not down. What wasn't normal was the pressure on the Ask, EVEN IN THE FACE OF GOOD NEWS, since the BK exit. Clearly there was an agenda by seller(s). My belief has always been that some of the conv. debt guys were trying to cash in on a low CTC PPS, particularly since BW got them to release their future rights in January. I can't wait for CTC to pay them off.
Steady drift up on lack of news shows strength. The pressure on the Bid with good news will prove the "insider leaking statement above" to be false.
b-dog
All you need to know about GT is are in the CTC SEC filings.
Gina - Good find. Perhaps this article has let the cat out of the bag. CTC and BGC have yet to announce a relationship in New Zealand/Asia. Note that they mention Spain as a location for BGC. The last full SH mtg. included Spain as a hot spot of activity in Europe for CTC. Coincidence?
Dennis - They are still private.
My 2 favorite "plays" for hydrogen power.
The stock play:
QuantumSphere
http://www.qsinano.com/
http://www.qsinano.com/apps_hgen.php
http://www.qsinano.com/apps_fuelcell.php
The fun play:
http://media.ford.com/newsroom/release_display.cfm?release=22295
I don't think there are any issues with AEP that haven't been resolved. CTC is just waiting for AEP administrative folks to do there thing.
The question should be who is the first customer to order after AEP?
My Opinion on the AEP Focus and the Eventual Second Order:
The good. AEP's second order verifies ACCC benefits for the largest manager of grid in North America. For other utilities it may satisfy the need to feel secure in making a decision to buy ACCC if a significant customer orders a second time. Also gives potential and current CTC investors a confidence boost. I am told other utilities are waiting for this order to be placed before they buy for the first time.
The not so good. This industry has a hard time changing. The utilities that say they are waiting for AEP to buy again will find another reason not to buy as the change to something new is difficult for them. The sales guys that are using the "waiting for a big customer to place a second order excuse before my customers will commit" will find another reason not to sell.
I agree with what you are thinking but not saying. "Get off your ass and get some orders - 99% of the rest of the transmission world isn't affected by AEP."
Two Unrelated Yet Key Events for CTC Wind & CTC Cable
Oil pushes past $70
Crude prices hit highest level in 7-1/2 months, due to increasing tensions between Iran and the West.
Hot Temperatures Force Blackouts in Texas
HOUSTON Apr 18, 2006 (AP)— Faced with the prospect of another day of record heat, the state's power suppliers urged Texans to cut down on their electricity use in the hopes of avoiding more rolling blackouts.
Yes, EU investors came in today. Where were they on the first 2 pr's? Sitting on their hands like everyone else. Those PR's did very little for potential CTC Wind investors. New investors want the deal to close and not much less from a company that rose up from the ashes of BK. The EU PR's educated some, confused others, and spurred little interest in share buying or selling.
The recent selling is directly related to the lack of revenue, the perceived lack of progress towards revenue, and the condition of the chart. Throw some shorting on top and you get a pretty good shakeout.
So why did some CTC Wind buyers show up today? If you feel good about Wind these K-Mart blue light special prices are low enough for some to pull the trigger before CTC Wind is official. Even at these prices though the majority will wait until the deal is done.
The PPS needs to go up for more than an hour or two to validate anything. The key is for CTC in the short term is to put out a stream of positive events on ACCC. The more they relate to ACCC revenue and progress in China as well as other international business - the higher the PPS. The presumed 2nd ACCC order from AEP would be just what the doctor ordered for CTC as well as the PPS.
gold - kindly disagree with your analysis in my ramblings below.
In general I think CTC is at a point where the market is saying "Show Me". Anything short of revenue or events directly related to short term revenue will be a non-factor in the PPS.
EU isn't considered a negative by the vast majority of CTC shareholders I know - in fact they think it's great, but only when CTC can consummate the deal. Their opinion is the same as REA, a biweekly publication on renewable energy. Their headlines regarding CTC Wind:
Renewable Energy Access: "Turbine Sales May Reap Windfall Revenue"
The market sees EU as sideways, not up, not down. This will continue until CTC Wind becomes reality late this quarter. Millions in projected revenue in 2007-2010 backed up by $30 -$50 million in deposits in 2006 will be significant in the investing world.
EU news can be ignored by the general market and existing investors as long as CTC investor relations can parlay Wind in to new shareholders/institutional buying. I would imagine today's buyers come from the EU crowd rather than ACCC crowd. Put another way - perhaps today we had ACCC believers selling and Wind believers buying. If you still hold CTC then EU believers helped you today in this sell off.
China PR was priced in at much higher PPS. An 0.81 PPS has forgotten about China as well as other potential positive events discussed but not officially released. News about CTC's first revenue from China will be significant.
Clearly we saw a good number of sellers and some large buyers today. The close looked decent. Hopefully this was a good flush of the toilet and the weak were replaced by the strong. All that being said I think we still will have to churn through more unhappy shares before we see the PPS behave normally.
I read them a while back and figured it was a royalty agreement.
Here's a PR hot off the press. I hope EU has a connection with Airtricty seeing as they are both UK companies.
Pat Wood, ex head of FERC, also a fellow participant in numerous confreneces with CTC management has been hired by Airtricity. He is quite familiar with CTC and ACCC.
Wood sees renewables playing larger role in new U.S. power generation
CHICAGO, and AUSTIN, Texas, April 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Airtricity, Inc., a
leading renewable energy company, announced today the appointment of immediate
past Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Pat Wood, 43, as
Chairman of the Company's North American Advisory Board. Mr. Wood, now in
private energy infrastructure development, will provide strategic policy and
market development guidance to Airtricity's North American operations.
Airtricity CEO, Eddie O'Connor said, "We are delighted that Pat Wood has
agreed to lead Airtricity's Advisory Board in North America. His experience
in the current Administration and deep knowledge of the energy industry in the
United States will be a tremendous asset to Airtricity. As we recently
announced, we are rapidly expanding our operations here, following our
announcement last year of our plans to invest $1.5 billion by 2010 in the
North American market and subsequent acquisition of Renewable Generation Inc
in December of 2005. We expect to construct 200 MW later this year and
another 400 MW in 2007."
Pat Wood's leadership at the Public Utility Commission of Texas and then
at FERC created energy markets where wind and renewable energy can reach their
full economic potential. This appointment continues Wood's move into another
leadership role for renewable energy. In September, Wood was named an
independent director of recently-public SunPower Corp. (Nasdaq: SPWR). Mr.
Wood is also the past Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas
(1995-2001).
Pat Wood commented: "I believe that the US needs to develop a mix of
energy resources. I agree with President Bush's recent observation that wind
energy has the potential to supply up to 20 percent of our nation's
electricity. By the end of 2007, we expect that Texas will be the leading
state in wind development, as wind construction across the US accelerates.
Airtricity, under CEO Eddie O'Connor's leadership, has demonstrated the
potential for wind energy in Europe and, with their recent investments in
Texas, have brought that vision to the United States. I am looking forward to
working with the team as Airtricity continues its expansion and develops a
competitive retail supply network of renewable power for customers."
Airtricity also announced today the appointment of Declan Flanagan, 31,
General Manager North America. Mr. Flanagan, who holds BSc, MSc in
Environmental Science, joined Airtricity as Regulation and Trading Manager in
2000, and set up Airtricity's Northern Ireland retail business in 2002.
About Airtricity
Airtricity is a world leading renewable energy company. As an integrated
utility, the company is both a generator and supplier of green electricity.
The company currently supplies renewable electricity to over 45,000 commercial
customers in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and is
developing and operating wind farms in the Republic of Ireland, Northern
Ireland, Scotland, England, and the United States Airtricity together with its
joint venture partner Fluor, has also been awarded a lease from The Crown
Estate to build and operate a 500 megawatt offshore wind park at Greater
Gabbard in the United Kingdom.