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That would be a good plan. Maybe go back to AAMRQ days at a quarter. I think it's conversion factor would be like 30cents!
Whackiness returns with AAL off $1.15 already this morning. Are there ANY traders out there who hold anything longer than 15-20 minutes anymore? They won't be nabbing my AAL anytime soon though.
It certainly is frustrating Ralph. Maybe it's our totally NOT understanding HOW it could go down while the best news the company has ever seen dominate the news. Still, we must know that things will be okay. Numbers like a LOW P/E will eventually be taken into account. The only thing is outside events that can drag it down even more. Transports hate wars. Especially involving the likes of USSR... I mean Russia(same thing). Also there may be some selling now that Long term gains are coming into play for many investors now. We had all worried about each monthly distribution and the fear that those would weaken the price. Likewise these Long term gain sales could be weakening us now. I'm guessing smart mutual/hedge fund managers have been on the sideline waiting for those sales to put pressure on AAL.
Regarding new flights to Cap Hatien, I see it as AA has some aircraft freed up from not going to CCS (Venezuela) where we have hundreds of millions stashed away. IATA is talking to Venezuela which could be a boost if some sense is talked into their govt.
Normally special charges aren't taken in to account in the typical EPS. $1.98/sh excluding special charges. Beat the street estimates CONSENSUS. Maybe with the morning open there were a lot of sell orders already in place in anticipation of a disappointment. Boy. Are they disappointed. Stock buybacks, dividend payment, early PRE payment of debt and tripling of the required defined benefit pension payment. Not sure what else is possible. (Other than as pointed out earlier, finding cure for cancer and throw in Mideast peace)
I'll re-second it Ralph. The Yahoo board has been poisoned with angry and childish people. It's very difficult to glean ANY useful information any more. Too bad because in the early days of AAMRQ it was informative and adult like. Now, I suspect, there are several people who are way short and not happy campers!
We're POSITIVE. Not just from the low of day!! This may have been another good buying opportunity. I bought some 40 calls 11 days out for cheap. This is a strong company and doesn't always need to be tied in to the rest of the industry.
HEY, We're up $1.20 (from our low) ! Parker just said our bookings were strong. UAL is recovering, AAL is recovering... hope it will continue. We'll be okay. Remain Calm and Carry On!
Our P/E is still low, both compared to peers and S/P. AAL is enjoying high load factors and still high PRASM. Nothing has changed in that regard in the last 2 weeks. Delta is a different animal. It's month wasn't bad at all. AAL will be just fine. I've got a ton of AAL and intend to hold it for months or years.
We (pilots) got notice yesterday of a final distribution. It works out to about 30 shares per pilot x 8000 or so pilots. (240,000 shares) Other unions may get a smaller amount. It works out to be about another $1400 PRE tax, so it won't affect AAMRQ by a huge amount. Guess we'll hear something soon.
Not sure I would believe a lot of what Terry Maxson says. As a member of a dreaded "Labor group" I can say that I've never heard of any more potential distributions coming our way. As far as I know, we're done. I may have missed something but usually when there is a smell of dollars in the air, pilots are usually sniffing around like sharks near blood. The old joke is how do you make a mile of copper wire out of a Penny? You let two pilots fight over the Penny."
I guess we'll find out soon enough. Even if there's no more distributions to us, it's most certainly been a great flight!
Shanak, Go back a few posts to read about the extra distribution.. Or go on to Yahoo message board for AAL. We SHOULD have a pretty nice one after June 30. Simply icing on the cake.
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Regarding disputed claims reserve, this was posted on Yahoo message board. I can't verify any truth for sure but it does sound reasonable. (Especially since this is just icing on the wonderful cake!)
AAMRQ disputed claims reserve payout estimate
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Dec. 6, 2013 was the last day of trading for AAMRQ. On that day there were about 336 million shares outstanding.
The disputed claims reserve that was set aside contained a bit more than 30.5 million shares. The current market value of those shares is a bit over $1.250 billion dollars.
Of that amount, approximately $400 million will be used to pay the disputed claims, administration fees, court fees, attorney fees, etc. That leaves about $850 million dollars to be distributed from the disputed claims reserve to AAMRQ shareholders of record.
That means, generally, that for each share of AAMRQ held on Dec. 6, 2013, the disputed claims reserve will pay in the vicinity of $2.52 per share, more or less, depending on how well AAL lawyers defended against the claims.
So if you held 10,000 shares of AAMRQ on Dec. 6, 2013, you will receive a credit of AAL shares valued at about $25,000.00 sometime in July. Less
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Just got in from flying Hong Kong-DFW... Loads are outstanding. Not hauling cargo yet as they want to get a base for fuel consumption before adding in cargo weight. (it's a long haul) 777-300 ER is loaded to the gills with passengers. Normally early on new routes loads are on light side. Not on this. Cathay Pacific feeding into HKG and loading the DFW flight.
This is only a microscopic view of how things are going I know. The word is getting out about the undervalued P-E ratio and I'm seeing the unlocked value of the old American Airlines being unleashed by competent mgmt. That is something that has been missing from American Airlines for at least 20 of my 27 years there.
AAL has enabled me to work maybe a little less... or really flat out retire early. This is only important in that it allows me to spend more time with family.... which is all that really matters.
Congratulations to all of us who have been riding this terrific ride for the last year or so. Take the weekend to count your blessings.(and tally up profits!)
Up $1.35 from today's low. Also the volume was picking up as price climbed. Today was a real overreaction to Iraq and Lufthansa's comments yesterday. Seems cooler heads were starting to prevail by end of trading. AAG's loads are fantastic and PRASM are good and growing. These did not change because a European carrier lowered forecast rev.
Signed very long and holding.
Wondering why this is happening? Surely you saw that insurgents are overtaking all of Iraq and have their eyes on Syria and all of the Mideast. These are guys who make Al Queda look like a silly boys club. It's sickening to see all that our troops fought for going down the drain. Crazies are driving our Humvee's and flying our helicopters.
The airline industry has NEVER been able to tolerate Mideast instability very well. Oil rising as it has this week,($106) is the result as we're seeing today. That is the only real DIRECT impact on AAL/DAL/UAL/LUV. This on top of a Lufthansa warning has spooked some or at least given some people a nudge who were considering profit taking.
With Mideastern turmoil, our loads won't go down, and no cutbacks on routes will occur. Ticket prices remain strong(PRASM)
May be best to not look at the airline stock prices for a few days.
Ditto on holding. I can give some credit to our old friend
J U N K M A N L O N G !
Haven't seen him around lately, but he provided actual court documents that explained the conversion. Some credit to the professional analysts such as Jamie Baker from JPM. He's been in the lead and yet still somewhat conservative. (which is okay for a professional)
He doesn't talk with emotions or hope... but numbers.
Come back and see us Junkman.
RB
Don't look for any bad news from passenger load percentages. Loads have been outstanding AND the company reports show many,many days without ANY cancellations. That is remarkable with about 4500 mainline flights a day. Ops have been very good other than a just a few bad weather days at hubs. Can't run from those. ie. got nothing to worry about next week.
When Parker/Kirby spoke to investors conference, they said, "don't wait too long to buy or you'll miss the boat" (paraphrased) This is what they meant. And this $3.50 gain for the week is only the beginning. A march to 50-55 by end of 2014 is looking more and more likely.
I've had similar deals. I dealt with it by thinking only of the positive side of the equation. You really didn't LOSE a fortune. You just missed out on a fortune. But 300% return?? I bet if you annualized it out, it'd be about 1000%. Great move!
BassMusky, are you serious? You have gotten all of your distributions from your AAMRQ. Everyone got there's and I'd be very surprised if you were the one of hundreds of thousands of shareholders who didn't get yours. Go back and look at your brokerage records a little closer. One in December then larger ones around the 12th of each month Jan-April. There may be one more in late June. So far you should have about 72 shares of AAL for every 100 shares of AAMRQ you owned.
AAGroup and pilots reached a new milestone today in relations. For several months with the implementation of new FAA regs regarding pilots flying time and especially the complicated task of a new pilot reserve system, a new agreement was reached today(Friday) They had had discussions for months and were going to binding arbitration. The two sides sat down this week and pilots made an offer. 2 days later, mgmt. said simply "yes. Sounds good"
It may sound like no big deal but I look upon it as a totally new type of relationship forming. Old AA had a couple of negotiators who simply wanted to WIN, no matter how it tore the company apart. These new guys refer not just to shareholders but to all stake holders. That would include employees, shareholders, airline manufacturers etc. Pilots are excited at the agreement. It will cost very little dollar wise and make life a little more bearable for reserve pilots, which constitute about 25-30% of the pilot force.
This is an indication of forward thinking management who may take a more "wholistic" and long term approach to the airline. In the past, if they could beat the crap out of every employee to squeeze another nickel from them and their family... they'd do it. Happy employees are good employees. Good employees help keep customers coming back.
Where is Junk Man Long when you need him? Are you around JML? He and a few others may have some good estimates based on number of shares set aside.
Seventeen cents. We got to ride a roller coaster all day today for Seventeen cents. Try that at Six Flags!. It beats what UAL did though.
First of all pretty much NEVER try to imply anything by looking at after hours trading. It generally means nothing with regards to the next mornings open. As far as $40 tomorrow.... not to be a Debbie Downer but I doubt it will happen. I HOPE earnings may be worth a $1.25 pop. Then over the next couple of days of earnings we may go higher... IF... the broader market is stable or strong. Over the long run, I think we will continue an upward trajectory as 1) possible dividend payments are discussed 2)Possible S/P 500 inclusion with the mutual funds forced to buy the holding 3) Said.Mutual funds and Hedge funds are more likely to buy a new company after they have an initial quarterly statement to base their purchases on. 4) GUIDANCE... It's the GUIDANCE that will drive the price. Delta's guidance was good and I expect AAL to be as good or BETTER.
FYI, AAL has announced RE-Peaking of their hub in MIA. That's where the banks of flights are more definite and time constrained instead of what AAL went to after 9-11, a "rolling" hub. Parker and every other CEO feel that it's much more productive for increasing revenue. Later the rest of the hubs will be Re-Peaked for additional revenue gains. These guys in the front office are working their tails off all hours of the night to make it all work. Some slightly negative headlines are possible as kinks with new FAA regs and AAL contracts with pilots are reconciled.
$38.60 at close Thursday. $39.30 Friday. (Plus or minus 2 cents)! (assuming WWIII hasn't started in Ukraine.)
Best of luck to us all and be thankful for what we do have.
R
There likely will be another small distribution end of June. Don't expect much but you don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
While I really don't like to see this sell-off, I am relieved to see the Goldman and others Recommendations and good Deutchbank report. Sometimes we can focus SO much on our airline and maybe the others, that we don't even notice that our little ole industry is not the only one taking a large hit this week. The economy is still motoring and our earnings will be strong. There are 98 other reasons to own AAL. We cool folks..
You know James Brown used be introduced as "The hardest working man in show business!" Well, I can say that the executives are the "hardest working folks in the business" They are working well after midnight and doing conference calls and running ideas by others well into the wee hours. That NEVER happened in the old AMR. They're going at break neck speeds to make the conversion go as quickly as possible. It's an extremely complex procedure. It's being accomplished by people who have done this before with USAir and America West, AND they're using the experience of Delta/NWA merge to gain additional pointers.
They intend to make more money than God has. I hope they don't run over anyone that remotely gets in their way.(employees) I don't think they will. There are some contentious relations with pilots regarding implementation of both a new contract and new FAA regulations regarding crew rests and assignments. Only a small chance it could turn in to a hinderance but you will likely hear things about it.
I'm figuring 45 by early summer and perhaps $55 by EOY.
I bought additional calls with "their" money. Expiration is a week after earnings announcement. The weather related losses are well cooked in to the price already.
great post General ! I'm very happy with .744 . I didn't get in at .35 but started accumulating at $3 when I felt that DOJ would settle. I've enjoyed reading your posts all along here.
Rog
It's been known for months of USAirways joining Oneworld. No surprises there at all. As to what drove us down after the hot opening??? Who knows. All I know is maybe more sellers than buyers. I'm trying to teach myself not to look constantly at AAL but it's hard not to during VWAP week. Even that won't make a of difference on our distribution percentage. Gonna be 18-19% most likely. Hey, when you're up 400% - 800%, what's a % among friends! Good luck to all and think.... LONG - TERM. No reason to sell now, only to give Uncle Sam an extra 15-20%
Last post for January call. But I am looking forward to the next earnings report. Obviously weather will take a toll but usually investors don't seem to threat too much from temporary hits that all of the other airlines are absorbing as well.
Well that's not a fight between legacy American employees and legacy USAirways employees. It's a dispute between USAirways mechanics and the USAir mgmt. that is now in charge of American Airlines Group. I would anticipate that they will get it worked out. I'm hoping Parker&Co will show they're different than the old AA mgmt. If we needed to go to the bathroom, their mentality would be to say "what will you give us in return?" It didn't work well for anyone.
Good for you RayBan! $4 is a GREAT purchase. Sure there are some who picked it up for .75 but most didn't. I started my purchases at $3 due to expecting DoJ to drop their objections to the merger. I even bought some as high as $10/sh. Great to see a young person out of college get some nice graduation cash. Do good things with it!
Sure it's all exciting but come on.. The stock has been up about 100% since December. Annualized... 400%. And we're losing sleep over whether we get an additional 18% or is it 19%?? It's all good. Don't lose a moment of sleep and enjoy the good fortune you have with no fretting whatsoever.
How did you come up with a .21 distribution? I wouldn't complain but I've not seen any estimates like that and there are some guys who have been on here for a long time who are pretty sharp. Don't get me wrong.. I'd like to see a couple of .21's.
You could have sold your shares the first day they were in YOUR account. That's not to say it would have been a good idea. EXCELLENT decision you made not to sell.
Thanks PinkBu and JM. Must admit.. my eyes still glaze over reading that stuff!
We've had a link posted on here somewhere that shows all 500 plus pages of the settlement. I looked through it once to try to see about the alleged cap. My eyes started glazing over and I fell over and hit the keyboard and lost the link. Does anyone still have that link and maybe post it here for everyone's fun time reading? JML, I think you've posted it before. Last I saw, you were pretty convinced that the cap exists for aamrq holders. Now a few are saying it only exists for convertibles...
$670M is not anything to consider. In a $30B company it's a drop. Besides AA has from time to time, had a portion of the CRAF.(Civil Reserve Air Fleet) It's not like they operate those for free and they're all profit. Maybe add $15M to the bottom line. Not much when we're talking $Billions and $Billions of profits! It's okay to have for sure. But a game changer.. naah.
Right JML. .18 due to cap. Looks like some readers MIGHT have picked up on that by now. Are you doing any option trading on AAL? I've got a lot of eggs in this basket already but wouldn't mind picking up some more with a cheap call.
I've gotta say the CRAF (Civil Reserve Air Fleet) has been in existence for decades. Not a huge number to the bottom line. Certainly not enough to make our AAL soar. I've flown some "missions" and found it very rewarding on a personal level and hope to do more in the near future. I would much rather be bringing our guys and gals home than taking them over like before.
You know Wanekee, I started to respond to your posting about Schwab "No way. How could Schwab know what to do when the distributors of equity of AAL haven't determined the amount!"
Well, then I looked at my own Schwab acct and see that another 1600 shares were showing up in the "unrealized gain" amount. Exactly the same as Distribution D30. It doesn't show up yet on my "current positions" though.
Not saying there's anything at all nefarious happening. I'm sure there will be a completely logical explanation coming.