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AJ, I would have thought otherwise.
"When government is 35% of GDP it is very hard if not impossible to enable hyperinflation."
It seems to me the bigger Gov is the more likely funny money is needed for the inefficiency.
Thanks. Anyer
Possible Mexico collapse scenario by US military:
http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354
SPX 875 is .786 retrace from 857 to 940. Watching this level for turn up.
Own SLW, PAAS, TCK, just bought GSS.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=48705
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75589834360&a=110072645
let go of GG sigh
AJ, Any thoughts on this prospect of Comex going down?
I sold my GG just now but believe they are a lot of phantom shorts out there. I still have SLW which is breaking out now.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25237923
Geez corrruption everywhere!
Joined you with PBR. also FCX,VIP TBT, ITU.
Financial crime Taleb:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f86d422-c48f-11dd-8124-000077b07658.html
HES broke a H&S top ; target 20? Bought DUG.
Picked up GG at 23.97 on the backtest of the downtrend BO. Gold stocks look to be sahping up.
I surely appreciate everything all the wonderful posters contribute here!
Thanks AJ for making it such a PLEASURE.
Anyer
Aj, in your opinion what probabilty do you give we break SPX 800 before a meaningful rally? This may be
the last chance for the buy and hope crowd to get out, so I expect a good move up. Can't decide how much capital to deploy here[sigh].
thanks,
Anyer
Indeed, stopped out at 165. Bought some MOS here.
AJ, Thanks for that SKF long at 160.75! Anyer
GM and Chrysler:2 drunks trying to hold each other up?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/general-motors-held-merger-talks/story.aspx?guid=%7BD5E4EB2A%2D6C47%2D4007%2D9CA0%2D9BDDFAC28366%7D&siteid=rss
Kahn from Barrons:
A Bailout Law Won't Drive Off the Bear
By MICHAEL KAHN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
No matter what the final word from Washington may be, there are still too many technical negatives in this market to support more than a "bailout bounce."
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With these readers:
Or copy the rss link:
WHEN THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE plunged 777 points Monday, some analysts were calling it a final washout that sets a bottom and clears the decks for the next bull market. After all, a record drop on absolutely horrible breadth, elevated trading volume and panicky sentiment indicators come together at major market bottoms.
Indeed, many indicators about which I write here concurred.
Monday registered a "90% downside day" where more than 90% of all stocks fell and more than 90% of the volume was attributed to falling issues. It is an indication that selling intensity was huge and such days are often preludes to major bottoms.
Lowry's Reports, an institutional advisory in Florida that originated this research, further states that these downside days by themselves do not tell us it is time to buy. What is needed is a 90% upside day to mark intense buying and that is still missing.
Exciting as Tuesday's 485-point recovery may have been, it was not accompanied by overwhelmingly positive breadth and volume.
I have to move to a marine analogy to simplify the meaning here. When a tsunami is about to hit land, the first thing it does is suck all the water near the shore out to sea. That's the washout in the market.
When the wave finally hits, the rush back in is an unmistakable surge of force that cannot be stopped. In the case of the markets, all of the power of the wave is unleashed on the positive side.
Of course, a real tsunami is destructive, and I do not want to make light of its power to kill people and ruin property. But in the markets, the flood is one of demand and a bottom is usually the result.
Tuesday did not satisfy this requirement. Volume was merely "above average" and not really heavy, let alone extraordinary. Advancing issues beat decliners by a good margin, but an amazing 10% of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange tagged new 52-week lows. That is not a flood of demand, and the rising tide certainly did not raise all boats.
Looking at more traditional indicators, the relative strength index that measures market momentum did not reach oversold territory Monday. Such a reading would be another indication that bears were getting exhausted, but it did not happen.
Further, even though there have been some dramatic selloffs recently, net market movement over the past two weeks has been nearly zero. Monday's low was less than 100 Dow-points lower than the Sept. 18 low -- hardly something that can be called "falling off a cliff" and the final capitulation of the bulls.
These two go in the bear column. Let's also add the fact that the falling trend from one year ago remains intact.
I mentioned sentiment being fearful earlier and certainly the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, aka the VIX, registered some extremely high readings this week. Dubbed the "fear index," when the VIX reaches extreme highs it often marks a bottom of some kind.
Finally, something for the bull column.
But can we truly believe the VIX, which is based on options premiums? After all, investors are no longer allowed to sell more than 1000 stocks short thanks to a temporary ban. One of the few places to hedge a portfolio is in the options market, and that may be changing the VIX in ways we just cannot know at this point.
Anecdotally, I don't see the "get me out at any price" fear in the mainstream and financial media. Investors are fearful, but I don't think they are truly as panicked as we might believe.
So, the scales seem to be tipped for the bears, keeping capital preservation tops on my list of investment activities. The final word from Washington could change things in a hurry, but from the technical evidence we have, this bear market is not over.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Getting Technical Mailbag: Send your questions on technical analysis to us at online.editors@barrons.com. We'll cover as many as we can, but please remember that we cannot give investment advice.
Michael Kahn, author of three books on technical analysis, former Chief Technical Analyst
BTU went long under 40; bottom of the box and RS divergence 60 minute. Gulp!
InitQ, Don't we need climactic volume before the puking is over. IMO not seen yet! Anyer
GM dealer closes 13 locations. A preview of coming "attractions"!
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/e67fe7ff9dc3f0a2b5fa8d36b0d1cb18.htm
EXM RS divergence on 60 minute. PE of 2 geez. Went long.
Initq, Good analysis. That is how I am playing it as well.
Bought HES,PBR,CHK and FTO yesterday;already sold and reloaded. Look at TTEK and CGRB!
Anyer
AJ, Can you enlighten me about who ELI is on the LG website?
Thanks, Anyer Went to Costa Rica for a week as the twin Hurricanes Gustav and Ike just missed my house in Jasper SE Texas. When Rita hit in 2005 power was out for 3 weeks. I expect Houston to be crippled for at least a month. They will not be able to function in the downtown area w/o AC and until the windows are replaced the A/C is dysfunctional.
LG, Thank you so much for your contributions!
Anyer
Thanks AJ for that WYNN; shorted 94.30!CGRB on the loose.
Looking to buy PBR at 45! Any opinion on CGRB AJ? They have a new prostate cancer drug that looks very promising. low volume though a negative.
Thanks, Anyer
Chainik, I know not this answer without looking at each airline's financials. They were so oversold and IMO have now gained pricing power as they begin to treat people like freight which IMO they should.
Anyer
I love CPA but it never has much volume.
Hiker, Pretty chart CCC EOM.
Got back in LCC and CAL this AM. They look higher to me!
The siren song of socialism from both parties! Compassion, safety nets and goverment can do.
SDS is backtesting the breakout of the downtrend line as well!
I bought CHK,OXY,HK and also PBR after AJ noted it looked done for now on the down side. Was gratified to see insider buying in O&G per WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121919236284255211.html?mod=todays_us_money_and_investing
Trend, You have any opinion on SRS? Bought a little at 91.64.
Thanks, Anyer
Thanks Trend!Most of you guys are way ahead of me so I appreciate any and all feedback.
Started a position in SDS as it is breaking the downtrend line.
AJ, Any thoughts on CAL? I got back in on the 3 box reversal under 16. Sold 40% this AM. Thinking of buying CPA as they are taking business away from Miami and are expanding.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=cpa,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
COF appears to be breaking down out of a wedge. Bought airlines CAL and LCC before the close yesterday and sold way too soon shortly after the open. The strength of the market really surprising to me!