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hey, justa. are we near a bottom? what is your take at this point?
thanks, rich
justa,
smh? do i see some upside?
rich
thanks for your take on the market....
i like your view, it brings me back to reality...
the people on cnbc give me headaches...
thanks, rich
it has been 7 years since i sold my last semi's.
made a lot of money buying cymi, amat, asyt, mtsn...
i have been listening, watching, listening , watching, studying, listening for 7 years.
there has been many gurus say BUY!!!!!
never did.
does that answer your question.
now, the stock gods have realigned....
no guru has told me anything. but after waiting,listening, watching, listening , watching, studying, listening for 7 years .... it may be time?
rich
here are a couple of folks who like it:
New Upleg for SMH?
06/21/2007 11:43:15
Jun 21, 2007 (AdviceTrade via COMTEX News Network) -- The big picture of the Semiconductor HLDRs ETF (AMEX: SMH) shows today's action has the potential to represent a key upside reversal day, which I will view as the start of a new upleg that projects next into the 39.20/50 target zone, likely on the way to confront 40.00. Only a break of today's intraday low at 37.70 will wreck the developing scenario.
http://finance.comcast.net/stocks/news_body.html?ID_OSI=98572&ID_NEWS=49133992
Semiconductor HOLDRS Holds Up In Sell Off, Says Market Timer Frank Kollar
06/20/2007 22:53:40
Jun 21, 2007 (financialwire.net via COMTEX News Network) -- June 21, 2007 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) Shares of the exchange-traded fund Semiconductor HOLDRS (AMEX: SMH) declined on Wednesday along with the rest of the stock market, but only lost a fraction compared to larger losses for most other technology ETFs.
Semiconductor HOLDRS, which allows investors to trade a basket of chip stocks including such powerhouses as: Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ: AMAT), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN), has been strong these past two weeks.
Semiconductor HOLDRS is likely to hold up better than most high tech ETFs in coming days. After this correction, if it becomes a correction, has run its course, look for Semiconductor HOLDRS to outperform, with a target for this advance of $40.00 a share.
http://finance.comcast.net/stocks/news_body.html?ID_OSI=98572&ID_NEWS=49085087
Semiconductors Appear Ready to Spring
06/13/2007 14:27:44
Jun 13, 2007 (AdviceTrade via COMTEX News Network) -- The Semiconductor HLDRs ETF (AMEX: SMH) continues to grind higher and actually is trading above its May-June resistance line. Once again, the SMH looks to me like it is coiled ready to spring towards 37.00/25 next.
http://finance.comcast.net/stocks/news_body.html?ID_OSI=98572&ID_NEWS=48674974
am i assuming too much by expecting relative strength of the nasdaq to outperform in the coming upturn? will we see a "boom" with regard to the qqq's? relative to other indexes (SPY,etc....)? if so, i would expect that smh to finally perform...
just curious.... i have been expecting this for sometime..8)))
rich
with national semiconductor's news last friday....
what do you think about the semi's?
rich s.
thanks, rich
justa, what do you think?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23429144
is it time for SMH?
rich
it is on his website. rich
With BB's recent call, are you in agreement with his view on the market?
Justa,
wow, as i look into the numbers, it is not as clear as was the case in the 90's!
http://s105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13160968
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22788970
http://home.netcom.com/%7Ekirklindstrom/SemiLinks.html
rich
thanks,
i have to believe that semis will participate in any major "blow off the top" rally (if BB is right). it seems to me that after the 2000 peak and subsequent decline..... after seven years.....it may be time for another semi rally?!?!
rich
justa,
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=13&freq=2
i have watched smh over the past 7 years. in the last downturn, it has not followed the general trend. it has shown relative strength. have you followed the semi stocks? thoughts?
rich
justa,
if you had 10% of your portfolio to put in the market (tagged for stocks), what would be your strategy going forward. ?????
ie. wait for BB's buy call? what per cent gold (what fund)?
thoughts?
thanks,rich
WOW, just read the Barron's article on tech!!
Hot! CYMI, KLAC, ASML, etc....
is it time for SMH?????
there is a buzzzzzzz....
rich
how did Zeev do in the downturn post 2000?
i did not follow his posts?
rich
Thanks, rational thinking takes over as the market "goes back to the mean"...
can real estate go down in price? my friend thinks that maybe 5% maximum!!!!!!!!!
the psychology of bubbles is very interesting. I thought that after the nasdaq bubble, everyone would have been savy to all this.
bartender, drinks all around....
rich
"Rich, I think that measure is just the median sale price, inflation corrected, of all houses in the US."
i think that the "sale price of homes going forward ----inflation corrected" will be the key to follow. I know that it is expensive to buy and sell properties....
and that the tax deductions of real estate investments are offset by the high costs to keep up properties.
if all these issues are followed by a sale price that does not keep with ---in fact declines with resultant inflation... those that have hitched their cart to the real estate investments bandwagon----- will have problems on the downside... and will lose big when compared to other investments....
jmho
rich
PS was too drunk to buy in at the start of the real estate binge
so i can see a scenario that the decline of housing market will be the focus while the stock market will slowly inch upward to new heigths...
sucking all into it... everyone will say everyone is putting their real estate profits into the market...
then BAMMMMMM! the market will go down when extreme PE's etc show up in the data...
we may then hit the "mother of all buying opportunities"?
thoughts?
rich
considering the thread ...
binge drinkers beware..
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/27/INGD3KNV2U1.DTL
"Now I don't know what measure that is, I will check, "
thanks, would like to see it..
I would hope that this is thread is drunk!
drunk with reality, not Pie in the sky stuff..
hiccup!
rich
"You will be so tempted to commit funds to the market because you will feel that you are missing a great run and because you are kicking yourself because you did not get in earlier."
i find it very similiar to the present real estate "binge",
hiccup!!
i have very educated friends that are saying real estate CAN'T GO DOWN- !!!!!???
rich
will i get another chance to purchase spy at the 1250 level?
your thoughts are appreciated...
rich
justa,
i have 10% of my retirement portfolio that i would like to have invested in equities. it is designated for equities and recently we finally got access to these funds.
question? since we are 3% off the lows from where some(bob b.) have said to put money into equities, should i wait till the 1250 s&p level or should i invest now? I guess i am asking for your view of the next few months?
thanks, rich
justa, great to see that you are back!
did you start this dive bar because you think that there has been a possible change in the market?
inflexion point?
rich
PS it has been six years since the bubble burst in the nasdaq.....due for an increase in smh?
rest is just noise
what do you think of SMH?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SMH&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
i may buy here? looks as though it is retesting?
rich
thanks justa,
sounds just right. rich
buy his newsletter and find out!
so Justa, do you think that the market has to test the 1250 level two more times? or have we done that already?
rich
thanks,
noticed that the book to bill is going up in the semi's. we are really due for a big upward push in the semi's.
if that happens, qqqq would be a great diversification etf.
rich
i am trying to find an entry spot for some more QQQQ's?
do you think this is a good level?
rich
justa, did you know that large cap stocks (ie qqqq) over the last 4 years have increased in price 2% while the PE's for these stocks have increased 40%?
Hmmmm, rich
thanks, really like the low PE's here. I think we have some upside to go yet. like the fact that amat and the semi's are starting to show some life. they are overdue for a run.
rich
justa,
how low will we go?
do you have an idea?
what do your tea leaves say?
rich
what does this mean?
rich
Justa,
what do you think of this?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=%5EIXIC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=qqqq
note divergence of the qqqq and nasdaq.
this has not happened in quite a while....
rich
thanks,
sticking with BB's take and looking forward to 06 and making more money. Seems that we are about to climb that wall of worry and with the inverted yield curve (lions tigers, and bears OH My!!), everyone is set up for a big stock market increase. about time for the smh to come thru for us too!
rich
thanks, are you buying puts too?
are you making money?
just curious. thanks,rich