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VRNG $8 net cash a share fully diluted after all costs and taxes
Incredible how this trades at 5.30
then add Yahoo
then add all the small US search engines which all together will pay a sizeable sum
then add that VRNG has much more to win than to lose during the appeal process,
the math calculation and the laches are both very strong claims.
Google has been playing the whole game very poorly since the beginning imo.
then add the telecom infrastucture portfolio
ZTE, Maxim analysts are forecasting a 200M settlement.
ZTE is only 10% of the market, VRNG will then go after the other 90%, that's 2B total.
then add all the other projects
Akadiri Portfolio, Likely targets Facebook, Twitter
Alcatel Portfolio, Likely targets Garmin, TomTom, Navteq
Virginia Tech deal
Long Term target easily $12-14, maybe much more
well said
Just check all the other PIPCOs NOK VHC ACTG PRKR IDCC etc
they all trade at more than 2x cash
This means the market applies a valuation of 1x cash + a premium to all the suits/projects
With these same metrics VRNG would be trading at $7-8 just with a 3.5% ongoing royalties
Guess what happens with more than 3.5%
Tinkerer VRNG won't stay severely undervalued forever just because a ruling will be appealed
rulings are rarely reversed during the appeal process
If the same metrics applied to IDCC VHC ACTG and PRKR
were applied to VRNG it would be trading at $8-10
it's already severely undervalued at $4
2big2fail, JJ said he was ready to rule on RR explicitly
it will be soon
stop pumping your short
false, JJ said he was going to use a modified Georgia-Pacific approach
RR is due any day, any hour
So many projects going on
ADT settled
TYCO might settle soon
Apple suit is a possibility as you say
Facebook, Twitter, Garmin, TomTom, Navteq likely
Yahoo and small US search engines surely
ADT Settlement, nice
yes
and that will make the appeal process faster imo
and just to be clear that's not my forecast, I don't know what the RR will be
I just meant that anything at or above 4% would be a huge sum
Red Angus, yes it's possible
pps moves are totally meaningless before RR ruling
Ghart,the appeal process started in Early April 2013
so almost 10 months ago
Imo everything will be done in H1 2014
Re Ongoing Royalties, Anything at or above 4% would be great
3.5% is about 600M which is already a huge sum (Google ads search revenues are skyrocketing, it could be bigger than 600M)
4% is about 14% higher or about 685M
Anything above 4% would be awesome
then add 48M preverdict damages (30.5+17.5 supplemental)
then add 5% from MSFT
then add Yahoo
then add all the small US search engines which all together will pay a sizeable sum
then add that VRNG has much more to win than to lose during the appeal process,
the math calculation and the laches are both very strong claims.
Google has been playing the whole game very poorly since the beginning imo.
then add the telecom infrastucture portfolio
ZTE, Maxim analysts are forecasting a 200M settlement.
ZTE is only 10% of the market, VRNG will then go after the other 90%, that's 2B total.
then add all the other projects
ADT
Akadiri Portfolio, Likely targets Facebook, Twitter
Alcatel Portfolio, Likely targets Garmin, TomTom, Navteq
Virginia Tech deal
Long Term target easily $12-14, maybe much more
I don't advise warrants at all. Shares are better.
I have advised to avoid all calls (same as warrants basically) for the last 15 months, this has been an excellent advice.
I think Google has played the whole game very poorly so I haven't got the faintest idea what it thinks is reasonable right now
redux you can't challenge any of the numbers I have posted for months so shut up, thank you
just like with ACTG, Google will settle if the amount is reasonable
Actually Google recently settled with ACTG
They couldn't care less about patent trolls
It's all and only about money
Thank you JJS, much appreciated
the RR will change everything
well there are 100 different scenarios actually,
JJ could choose any number
I posted the 2 main ones imo
JJ will rule on the RR before end of week,
max next week
imo
5% and 7% Scenarios
7% Scenario
Net Cash
7% Ongoing Royalties 660M
Pre verdict Damages 26M
Microsoft Settlement 30M
Previous NOLs 35M
Options Warrants RSUs exercise 102M
Cash in Hand at end of H1 2014 25M
878M
$7.65 net cash a share fully diluted
Should trade at $8-9 at least since this is without considering any of the following
*Laches Reversal Claim which is very strong, worth $2.20 net a share
*Yahoo Licence/Settlement
*Small search engines Licence/Settlement
*ZTE Licence/Settlement , only 10% of the market, VRNG will then go after the other 90%
*ADT Licence/Settlement
*Akadiri Portfolio, Likely targets Facebook, Twitter
*Alcatel Portfolio, Likely targets Garmin, TomTom, Navteq
5% Scenario
Net Cash
5% Ongoing Royalties 470M
Pre verdict Damages 26M
Microsoft Settlement 25M
Previous NOLs 35M
Options Warrants RSUs exercise 102M
Cash in Hand at end of H1 2014 25M
683M
$6.00 net cash a share fully diluted
Should trade at $6.5-7 at least since this is without considering any of the following
* same as 7% scenario
Google clearly feeling a lot of pain right now
JJ will rule very soon on the RR imo,
maybe even before end of week
3.5% About 600M
7.0% About 1200M (1.2B)
+ 48M preverdict damages (30.5+17.5 supplemental)
+ 5% coming from MSFT
+ YHOO still to be sued as mentioned by Maxim today
+ smaller search engines which make up about 8% of the US market, this extra 8% is not small at all
Google deserves to lose the full 1.8 Billion that is Laches reversal + 7% ongoing royalties
that's more than $10 a share NET cash
and then add Microsoft, Yahoo, ZTE
quite incredible how this is below 4
Google deserves to lose the full 1.8 Billion that is Laches reversal + 7%
Would be Wise to reopen in AH
NOT OPEN, just an old 100 size trade
it's a T1 halt
there's not even a resumption time yet
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=Tradehalts
Shorts Squeeze, 20Millions shorts to cover
Google has 60 minutes to decide what to do LOL
GO JJS !! WOW !!
here we go
Maxim evaluating ZTE at about 200M gross (104M net)
Maxim Group analyst John Tinker reiterated a Buy rating and $5 price target on Vringo (NASDAQ: VRNG) Wednesday, saying the company is approaching the end-zone as we move toward a number of key events.
"Today marks the date of VRNG's mandated settlement conference with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)," Tinker notes. "The settlement conference, conducted in private, should provide clarity on any enhancement to the current 3.5% royalty rate related to the November 2012 ruling. VRNG is arguing for an increase of the royalty rate to 5-7% for the dates November 17, 2012 to April 2016, due to GOOG's willful infringement. An increase should also provide additional upside to VRNG's settlement with MSFT (NASDAQ: MSFT), based on 5% of the total damages received by VRNG from GOOG."
Tinker also notes earlier this month, VRNG was granted a supplemental $17.3M in damages from GOOG, on top of the $30.5M already awarded. In April, GOOG's appeal related to the reexamination of U.S. patent '420 should be heard. The appeal may be likely be GOOG's last chance to prove that it avoids infringing on VRNG's patent via a workaround.
The analyst also highlights that the ZTE disputes continue to move forward. German courts ruled in December that ZTE's (0763.HK - 16.50HKD - NR) German subsidiary had infringed on VRNG's European patents dating back to 2006 and that VRNG was entitled to damages.
The firm's $5 price target is based on the current lawsuit win potential. "We estimate the net proceeds from the Google lawsuit (both historic and future royalties) to be $400M, or $3.86/share. We assume a historic infringement lawsuit win of $47M, less legal and tax expenses for a net $28M. We value the future royalties, assuming a 5% rate (a blend between 3.5-7%), at a gross $714M, less legal and taxes for a net $371M. Furthermore, we estimate Microsoft net lawsuit proceeds of ~$38M, or $0.37/share (both $1M plus 5% royalty rate)."
They estimate ZTE Corporation net lawsuit proceeds (both historic and future royalties) of ~$104M, or $1.00/share, They have not included other potential defendants, such as Yahoo (YHOO), or the remaining 90%/$100B of the telecom equipment marketplace in their estimates.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Comments/Vringo+%28VRNG%29+is+Nearing+the+End+Zone+-+Maxim+Group/9076151.html?si_client=st
GOOG - Pacific Crest raises target to $1450 from $1135 - Expecting a Solid Q4 on Strong Search.
No settlement, a big waste of time