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Dear Aestheticexec: cut your short position before it's too late. Or sell eols and by rvnc. You don't know what you're talking about.
The doc contradicted himself in the last three sentences. Words are facile.
thanks.
I am sure you guys have covered this before on the board, but I have a few questions about TEOXANE:
1) what is their end-game with Revance?
2) would they be interested in acquiring Revance?
3) do they have the money?
Thanks
Sounds to me like eols ceo knows what he's doing. Will be interesting (painful?) to watch the race over the next few quarters.
Just listened to the 3Q cc. I have no particular insight, but unless they are lying, 4Q, due to pricing strategy and seasonality, will be much better than 3Q. Brilliant observation? Stupid one, I would say, but that is precisely my point: if you look at the share price, it seems everyone has assumed they're going bankrupt.
good, informative, fair post.
Given your background and experience, where do you see rvnc and daxxify in one year? Do you really think they've burned their commercial bridge, so to speak?
Good to know. I'm going to spend some time this weekend listening to cc, as well as reading up. Thanks.
Hope you're right re 4Q. In any case, people are WAY too pessimistic.
Is there a viable market for CD? It is realistic to expect peak sales of $350M? How long do you think it will take?
I I have been adding over the last week. Pretty drastic drop, from $37 to $6. People expecting the company to go bankrupt. We'll see what the next few quarters bring.
Oh, I don't think it is that simple. For one thing, based on revenue, they haven't had many customers in the first two quarters; so you're is faulty. Investors are jumping to conclusions here. I added today.
So much confusion out there. Once on top of M&A lists, now people are talking about bankruptcy. Sure, we all know about the errors and miscalculations in on the sales and marketing side, but has the product changed? has the market? Does anyone seriously think the company has been written off?
the post from the other board (stocktwits) is from pablosplace13. A rabid eols cheerleader. He might or might not know what's he talking about, but he has badtalked daxxify for years now; so take his comments with a grain of salt.
It's like nobody expects with the assets they have the company will ever be able to make any money. Funny how that works. Riding high at $38, it plummets in a matter of months.
Predictions on 2023 total revenue?
In one sentence, what are you saying? (Not being a smartass; just a dumbass trying to understand)
How did it take them so long to realize the sales and marketing fiasco?
Interesting to see where this company will be two years from now. I remember when I first got in before daxxify approval, rvnc was on top of some m&a lists. What happened? What a fall! Obviously, when analyzing its potential, I imagine many analysts were right-on: daxxy was better than botox. The problem--correct if I'm wrong--was the sales and market strategy: pricing and target audience. Has anything really changed? Is daxxy a failed drug? Is there no market, even if they price it near botox? Are they broke?
Over-reaction? Anything thing it is fatally wounded? Why? At least levels, with a mc of $740M, it seems awfully cheap. Tute participation is high.
Who's adding?
Thanks.
Good question.
You guys think the spasticity indication will ever advance? Phase 2 data was published in 2021. Do you they plans to take it into Ph3?
How about forehead lines, upper facial lines, etc?
Sorry for the questions. Trying to get up to speed. Thanks.
Thanks. I'm going to catch up on the dd, esp. the new pricing strategy. You guys I know are good. Where can you direct me?
Jumped back in after being out for a while. Can't believe the MC is now nearing $700M.
Pricing strategy is the key here (of course, marketing goes without saying). 3Q cc should be interesting.
In the most negative scenario, what would total revenue be in, say, three years? (Yah, absurd question, but analysts do it all of the time, and most of the time wrong!).
Thanks,
K
Good question. I'd like to know myself. Realistic peak sales. I think I saw somewhere around $300M.
And the litigation with abbvie? Much ado about nothing?
Let's see some insiders buying in open market. I dare them. They don't have the balls. Foley is too busy selling.
In retrospect, it seems obvious. One thing is certain: shorts have played it perfectly so far. It remains to be seen how it will end.
Fair enough. Hopefully, Q3 rev will be better.
Curious: does the abbvie ligitation have legs? Retail love to talk about BO, but with a legal dispute overhand, very likely any such thing would happen until more clarity.
Cheap at these levels. Should see $20 again before long. Friday should be interesting. If script numbers are good, like last Friday, the share price should get a good boost. Half way through Q3. Dumb drop from $21 to $9.
and here I thought I was a genuis, doubling down yesterday PM when nobody even noticed approval, and those who did, didn't think it was for CD. Oh well. Cost basis around $20. All is good.
Why hasn't Revance expanded the indications in aesthetics? Glabellar lines remains the only one. What gives?
Is the abbvie patent dispute an obstacle? Don't know if BP would act until it is resolved.
but the 50% drop from ATH wasn't. Besides, they now have entered into the therapeutic market. Huge. TAM of $400. Spasticity on deck. Have enough cash, per er, to reach break-even point. Stupid cheap.
I thought there'd be more reaction to approval. Funny. Bodes well for even bigger supplemental bla: spasticity. Entereing into Ph3. Together the two supplements have a TAM of $1.3B.
Re: Botox carry-over
For you longs out there: is there any carry-over from Botox--what I mean is, though botox and daxxify are different, they are both neuromodulators, so could any conclusions between drawn about the upcoming PDUFA from the fact that Botox is already approved for use in CD (and Spasticity)?
Dare I say--no, I don't, not in bios--CD and Spasticity are low-hanging fruit?
If CD is approved this week, it bodes well for Spasticity, which is moving into Ph3.
Plasticity is a huge indication. Just looking over the pivotal Ph2 data, which is moving forward into Ph3. Seems like great data. Anyone disagree?
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210222005783/en/Revance-Announces-Positive-Topline-Phase-2-Data-Supporting-Advancement-of-DaxibotulinumtoxinA-for-Injection-for-the-Treatment-of-Upper-Limb-Spasticity
What's the TAM for CD? How realistic is it? There are also other sNDAs they could go after; another one, in fact, is moving into Ph3. Are these realistis (read: profitable) markets?
Still hard to wrap my mind around the price decline. I was in this before Daxxify approval, and sold at $18 or so. Watch it climb to $35, cursing myself and my termity along the way. And now here we are, back at $18. I got back in around $25; been averaging down since, currently at $21. Will add if it drops upon approval.