Trance- You've got to make a rational decison here. What that means is up to you. No one here knows your financial situation and what you can afford to risk,

Personally, I'm not a technical guy, and not a seasoned trader by any means. I got into aamrq because I had faith the merger would go through (in particular because unions were on board), and I knew the potenital return within a short period of time. I started buying just a few months ago in the mid to high 3's, and stopped buying just over 7 at the end of October. My feeling was that the stock would be between 13 and 14 within a day of a DOJ settlement. I kept telling myself if aamrq hit that number, I'd be out. It got there, but then I got a little greedy, held on, and sold at 11.70, mostly out of fear. I couldn't sleep that night thinking about how much more money I could have had if I sold sooner...but when I woke up yesterday and watched the stock plummet to mid 10, I was thankful. If aamrq was the only stock red, I would have bought back in...many more shares at a lower cost. But the entire industry was red, so i sat still. I'm still sitting still.

If there is any indication that shares will start to increase across the board, I'll buy back in, and considering it is December 4th, it will likely be AAL I'll be buying back into. The strategy for me, which is what I imagine a lot of the people selling are thinking, has shifted from making a ton of money fast, to value preservation and control. I've made a considerable amount of money on aamrq, on what was once an educated gamble. At the moment, in my opinion, it is more specualation than educated gamble.

If you really believe that AAL in the next four months is gonna soar, owning aamrq now has a huge advantage. I believe it will gain, but I would rather hold AAL because of the control...being able to sell if something bad happens. Holding aamrq...well, you can't sell what you aren't holding. If you ask, what can possibly happen, how low can an airline stock plummet...well, DAL is super healthy, and they were as low as like 8 and change a year ago, I think... When all the Middle East nonsense was on fire.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the pps is not locked in for the 120 day distribution period. It may be for the first 30 day distribution in January, but it is not, for example, the equivalent of $14 per share spread over 120 days. On December 9th, we (common shareholders as a group) get the 3.5% value of the merger (per the reorganization plan)...this is regardless of the 20 day average or closing price on Friday of either airline. The remaining distribution is purely market based. If AAL is doing well, the old aamrq holders get a greater return at the end of every 30 day period, for 4 months. If AAL is not doing well, the return is less. So, at least from my understanding of Exhbit B in the reorganization plan, the value to old aamrq holders can (and likely will) fluctuate. This is a contributing factor to the sell-off. At this point, I think manipulation is much less likely then say, 2 weeks ago. The industry as a whole is down because of oil prices, OPEC decision still looming, uncertainty with Iran deal and impact on oil output. I believe many airlines had 52-week lows around this time last year, so investors, especially those that have made a huge return, are playing it safe, which isn't a bad thing. I imagine if somebody on this board said they sold their entire position 2 days ago, they would have gotten an ear full. Looking at the share price right now, that same investor might appear to be smarter than a lot of us. The question would be, are people smart or foolish if they were to jump in now?

...If somebody understands any of this deifferently please share your view. If the conversion value was locked in and guaranteed over the 120 days, irrespective of the industry and the economy as a whole, I imagine a lot of people would be buying right now. It would be an amazing deal, even for the big funds that don't want to have their money held up. It'll insulate them from losses elsewhere.

Good morning everyone. What news source are people following during the hearing? I haven't seen anything from Jason Whitely...following his tritter during monday's hearing was awesome...

You don't need a twitter account to follow. Just google Jason Whitely Twitter. It seems like the hearing is going well, in my opinion...well enough

Thanks Robvo!

Upon merger, stock symbols for both airlines will be cancelled, and shares converted to AAG (American Airlines Group). The value of each share is yet to be determined...The higher LCC shares are immediately before the merger, the higher aamrq shares will be upon conversion.

Still hoping for anything exciting today. I'm getting kind of bored.

That was a solid day.

Something has to be up. I had the pleasure of watching the initial jump. I think it went up like .40 in at most one minute.

More Support For Merger

10/30/2013 124 MOTION for Leave to File Amicus Curiae Brief in Support of Defendants by Oneworld Alliance, LLC (Attachments: # 1 Text of Proposed Order)(Baruch, Douglas) (Entered: 10/30/2013)

Oneworld, the alliance with leading partners American Airlines and British Airways, filed a request Wednesday to file an amicus curiae, or “friend of the court,” brief in the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit to block American’s merger with US Airways.

US Airways is currently part of the rival Star Alliance, headed by United Airlines and Lufthansa. But it would switch to Oneworld if it is allowed to merge with American.

“The proposed merger would thus have a direct impact on oneworld and its member airlines. US Airways’ anticipated membership in the oneworld alliance will make oneworld a more effective competitor against the larger alliances by expanding its network of U.S. destinations and thereby facilitating delivery of more seamless and cost-effective service to a greater number of U.S. international travelers,” the Oneworld filing stated.

As to why Oneworld should be allowed to submit a brief:

“oneworld believes that it has a viewpoint that will assist the Court in deciding this case because, to its knowledge, no other party or amicus plans to focus its arguments exclusively on the effect of the merger on competition between airline alliances and the impact of the transaction on consumers for U.S./international routes. If this motion is granted, oneworld’s amicus curiae brief will explain in greater detail the reasons why the merger would have a beneficial impact on competition between airline alliances, particularly for U.S./international travelers.”

In its filing, Oneworld said the airlines support its filing, while DOJ and the states who joined the lawsuit as plaintiffs did not oppose it as long as they can respond to it.

U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly has given amici filers until Nov. 15 to file their briefs. Responses have to be filed by Nov. 22, the Friday before the Monday, Nov. 25, start of trial.

She’s granted the request of Transport Workers Union and a number of airports to file amici briefs. She’s yet to rule on requests from other unions to combine their brief with the TWU’s, as well as amici requests from various chambers of commerce, airports and the unsecured creditors committee in American’s bankruptcy case, who are all in favor of the merger and against the lawsuit.

The Oklahoma attorney general served notice on Kollar-Kotelly’s court that his state would file an amicus curiae brief.

Airlines, DOJ Agree To Mediator

US Airways, American Airlines and the U.S. Department of Justice disclosed Monday that they’ve picked a mediator to see if they can resolve any or all issues in the DOJ lawsuit seeking to block the air carriers’ merger.

They didn’t disclose the mediator’s name or any other particulars of the mediation effort.

In a joint status update filed late Monday afternoon in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., they simply stated: “The Parties have agreed to a mediator suggested by the Court.”

It is common in lawsuits for judges to urge the warring parties to present their cases to a mediator in hopes of resolving the issues before trial. The DOJ’s antitrust lawsuit against American and US Airways begins Nov. 25 in U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly’s courtroom in Washington, D.C.

In this case, the judge on Aug. 30 ordered: ”The parties shall also confer and contact the Court regarding the appointment of a third-party mediator for use at the parties’ discretion.”

(I would call this a neutral development. The judge told them to go get a mediator, so they went and got themselves a mediator. This doesn’t indicate they’re any closer (or farther) from a settlement. It indicates they listened to the judge and did what she told them to do.)

The joint statement was issued in advance of a status hearing Wednesday before the judge. Among the factoids in the filing:

– The case has produced about 2,250,000 documents. “Collectively, Defendants have produced approximately 1,350,000 documents to Plaintiffs. Plaintiffs have produced approximately 900,000 documents to Defendants, a third of which are documents Defendants originally produced to Plaintiffs in prior investigations.”

– DOJ took depositions from 19 employees at American and US Airways. “The Parties have also deposed nine non-parties, most of whom are executives employed by other airlines.”

– DOJ disclosed the names of four experts, “all of whom can be described as providing economic opinions or opinions on the purported benefits associated with the merger.” The airlines will provide their expert disclosures by Nov. 8.

– The DOJ and the airlines still don’t agree on how many trial exhibits can be introduced and how much time each side will get during the trial.

– The DOJ and airlines have proposed that the court set a Nov. 15 deadline for amici curiae (friends of the court) briefs, with a Nov. 22 deadline to respond to them.

– “Fact discovery is nearing a close. The majority of fact discovery was completed by October 25, 2013, and the handful of remaining depositions will be completed before the extended deadline of November 8, 2013.”

On another matter, the judge Monday granted the request of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and three other cities and airports to file an amici curiae brief. The others were Charlotte, N.C., and its Charlotte Douglas International Airport; Phoenix and its Sky Harbor International Airport; and Philadelphia, which owns and operates Philadelphia International Airport.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2013/10/airlines-doj-agree-to-mediator-as-they-head-toward-trial.html/

...It's from an online pay service to get court filings:

https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov

1:13-cv-01236-CKK United States et al v. US AIRWAYS GROUP INC. et al

Supposedly, some airports with a stake in the outcome of the case with the DOJ are making motions with the court to file briefs in support of the merger. Dallas/Fort Worth, Sky Harbor, Charlotte Douglas, Philadelphia...

Ok, according to a Dallas News posting, there IS a status conference this wednesday, at 10:30am. This status conference was set back around the middle of the month, before the support letters from the mayors and members of Congress went to Eric Holder. So, the holding of this status conference in and of itself does not mean that there is a breaking development in the case. However, if there is a new development, that status conference would be the time that DOJ, AA and US Air would notify the judge. If the parties are going to come to a settlement, or close to one, the judge will be notified. If not, the judge will confirm that everything is on track for the Nov. 25th trial. Either way, I do not think people should be so concerned. In my opinion, the share prices have been going up because of good earnings and ever increasing support for the merger...the looming trial is not new news, so I don't quite understand why the possibility of a failure in settlement negotiations, assuming that happens, would scare investors so much. Settlement failure can simply mean that the DOJ is being outrageously unreasonable in their demands, and the airlines feel like embarrasing the DOJ in court. Settlement failure is not an indication of dismal circumstances for the airlines and the prospect of a merger.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2013/10/really-small-news-for-people-interested-in-the-us-airways-american-airlines-antitrust-case.html/

Those hearing dates appear to be for bankruptcy related proceedings, not hearings related to the DOJ suit...that suit will be handled by a different court.

Just curious how people are confirming that the CEOs missed a charity event and flew to DC. I can't find anything to verify any of this. Is this news actually published anywhere?

Someone on another message board posted that this next wednesday there will be a trial status report. Wondering if anybody else has heard anything because I haven't been able to find any reports on the web to verify that.

Someone on another message board posted that this next wednesday there will be a trial status report. Wondering if anybody else has heard anything because I haven't been able to find any reports on the web to verify that.

What are the chances this is market manipulation by hedge funds, and has nothing to do with news regarding the merger or the industry as a whole?

Assuming this is the share price for LCC at close of merger, what would AAMRQ shares be worth?

Made the same mistake today

Thanks

Thanks. So share prices for American, with merger, are capped?

I'm kind of new to investing, and I'm contemplating getting into American Airlines. Can Anybody tell me the difference between the old ticker AMR and the new AAMRQ...I mean...When people talk about the old AMR shares, and the possibility (at least previously) that they be valueless, does that include AAMRQ, or are they referring to the old stock ticker, AMR? Thanks!