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And well you should buy on the dips, nothing wrong with that! I think back in Jan. of 2013 Gerald had LymPro and MANF data, but it was pretty pre-clinical. MANF still is, though we should get an orphan in Q1 2015. But LymPro will be commercialized by January. If it commercializes and our pps goes up significantly, then you will have been proven foolishly wrong. If LymPro doesn't do well, we will all remember you told us so, and we'll give you all the credit you deserve.
Sccrbrg: I looked up the paragraph you're referring to in the latest Chairman's blog. You are confusing two tests. The LP002 "bridge" test will be completed by the end of Q3. Data from that test will help with the "specs" on the "validation test" that will be completed by the end of Q4. The "12 week validation test" being done in ICON's lab is what must be completed before we begin commercialization.
As Dr. Rubenfeld said in today's meeting: "We will be launching a diagnostic in 4 months. We're there!"
I don't see why people would sell down much lower than this.
If the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is true for good news, then the reverse should be true for negative news like the billion share vote: "Sell the rumor, buy the news."
I think most shareholders knew the vote would pass and if they were inclined to sell they would have already have done so. I think it moves up today. The next two catalysts are beckoning:
1) LP002 Data Release by end of September (Next 8 days!)
2) Concrete News following data regarding our Partnership Arrangement.
I don't think it will be a JV Partnership, but following the data this next week there will be something "concrete" that is done that will increase shareholder value. I've seen this in a recent email from Gerald. He has stated this publicly, as well.
It would be very dangerous to sell here in the mid 8s.
Shareholders have assumed that the billion share vote would pass, so that shouldn't be a surprise today. I think much of the downward pressure from the anticipation of it's passage has already been built into the stock price, .086.
So I think flippers are going to be disappointed. Selling in the mid 8s could be pretty dangerous with the LP002 results promised in September...in the next 8 days! Soon after that data release, I am expecting Gerald to release something "concrete" that will raise shareholder value. I don't think it will be a JV Partnership, but Gerald still seems to be suggesting something regarding our Lympro partnership arrangement will follow these LP002 results that will increase shareholder value! I HAVE SEEN THAT IN AN EMAIL!
If people try to take advantage of this vote by flipping...I think it will be a trap for them. Gerald has a lot riding on preparing us for up listing. He is not going to let flippers take us down or keep it below .10 cents for very long. He has catalysts that will hurt people who screw with us down here.
The bids during the latter half of the day seemed different on a Friday afternoon than I would have suspected. I thought the pps would have drifted downward, since we're not aware of imminent news. It felt like someone was supporting the stock price. It seemed like they deliberately wanted to close well above .10 cents at the end of the day.
Was this a private buyer? Could be. But as JP has been suggesting, it could be LPC and their affiliates, who have a vested interest in keeping our pps up. If LPC or someone like that is trying to drive the stock price upward, then between now and the shareholder meeting I would expect them to get it above .12 or .13 cents, just so that there is a feel-good atmosphere at the meeting.
For the flippers who have sold and expect the pps to go down to .05 to .07 cents....well, this next week will tell the tale. If the pps comes tumbling down and closes below .09 cents on Monday we'll know today's buying at the end was probably some private investor. But if the pps climbs a little each day next week....I predict Solantey will jump on the bandwagon by Wednesday and will be predicting the stock will go over .18 cents after the shareholder meeting! That is his MO.
Alapis: Did you really expect Gerald to give a detailed prediction of how much LymPro revenue will be produced in each quarter of next year? They won't even begin commercializing for another 4 months. The best Gerald can do is give us some indication what sources our revenue will be coming from and approximate ranges of revenue in the first half of 2015, second half of 2015, and maybe for 2016 as well.
Ball park ranges of revenue is what I'm expecting, not specific predictions. For example, he might say our first half revenue might be in the 3 to 8 million revenue range. The second half might be in the 15 to 50 million range, and our 2016 in the 150 to 250 million range.
He might not even be able to give as much as I have above. But at least he will be talking about where the revenue will come from and an inkling of what ranges to expect.
Salexander: Thanks for introducing me to AMBS and persuading me to roll over my profits from our other stock! My wife and kids give you all the credit around the house. You're going to have to figure out a way of making me look smarter to them.
Alapis: How many times have you met with Gerald face to face and spoken with him? Since you live in Italy, I doubt you ever have. I've spoken with him face to face 3 times, twice for nearly an hour. I found him to be a great guy! He is not the way you describe him.
If you have followed me you know that I am not afraid to criticize Gerald when I feel like he has made a mistake. I have done so on the message boards a few times to the point of alienating many longs. But overall I think Gerald is doing a fantastic job and deserves our support. I don't believe he is insensitive to shareholders at all.
Alapis, if you could visit with him for 30 minutes you would know he is a genuine good guy. Maybe too good, if anything. I would never criticize Gerald's character. Judgement? People can alway debate over decisions and tactics. But I am not selling any shares because of this announcement on Friday. If I had any money I would be buying.
jeffshir: I thought the same thing. Why throw out this huge doubling of authorized shares on a Friday after close, which over the weekend could cause grave concerns of dilution, and then not explain it in a blog until sometime on Monday after our pps has taken a hit?
One interesting response to this question could be that they wanted news of these additional authorized shares to work on us over the weekend to....sift us. Sift us? Yes. It was funny, in the hours following the news there were two distinct camps of shareholder responses: 1) Gerald is screwing us with dilution and we're doomed, (The Solantey & Basher Group, and 2) Those who thought something really big and good is about to happen. (True longs)
Maybe Gerald and his financial advisers want there to be a sell off on Monday morning to blood let - get out the last remaining weak hands and bitter people that shouldn't be here? Then, once the pps hits bottom and the blog comes out and reasonable longs see the up side, the stock starts moving up again, only much stronger than before because we've been cleansed of the Solanteys and such.
I've seen companies do this before. It's a psychological strategy that purges the stock and makes it stronger. If shareholders don't believe in Gerald and his team and make tons of negative posts of doom because of this, they need to be gone. Gerald is showing them the door Monday morning.
Just a thought.
Zoom: I'm not sure how big a catalyst the Eltoprazine trial is? Will that impact our pps much? I do believe it makes us more credible on paper to institutional investors...that we have a drug in advanced trials. That may enable a JP Morgan to invest in us whereas without it they might not. So indirectly, I think it helps us in the next 6 months. But on it's own merits I think Eltoprazine is a ways off before it starts generating excitement.
The LymPro partnership announcement will pop us upward depending on who it is, how much up front cash, and the terms of the agreement. But I think REVENUE GUIDANCE and the LYMPRO DATA, which should both be coming out around the time of the partnership announcement, also are critical in how much the partnership announcement pops us up. If the data is impressive and the revenue guidance is also impressive, those two factors will MAGNIFY the value of the partnership! These three LymPro catalysts should come within 6 weeks.
Maybe you should restate that when you're not high? Because if you think about it your statement doesn't really make sense. Our pps ran up to .19 cents and now has fallen back to .11 cents. You said you won't put a dime in here until you can see AMBS can sustain a run? So I guess that means you won't buy even when we get back up to .19 cents, because from your statement it seems you'll want to see it go to some higher level, so you know it can sustain "a run."
Good idea "TheWizardOfPot!" Don't buy shares down here at .11 cents, the time to buy is when the pps goes up to .25 or .30 cents! Excellent, good luck with that plan.
#C4CT, KOLs, & Revenue Guidance:
In Gerald's blog he again referred to the KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in the AD industry that were impressed by the LymPro data presented at the #C4CT Conference. Even though we shareholders may have misinterpreted the data, the scientists present....did not misinterpret it. Milestone accomplished!
All the way back to when I spoke with Gerald in Las Vegas in September 2013, he told me having an accurate blood test wasn't enough to become the "industry standard." What was needed was having the right people on your team that can persuade the KOLs in the AD to switch over to LymPro from other tests being used. Gerald was confident he had the right people, and he continues to add to his impressive team of diagnostic specialists.
When LymPro data comes out in the coming weeks and months with mid 90s sens & spec numbers, and it is less invasive and less expensive than amivid (Eli Lilly's test), the pharmas doing AD clinical trials will move in droves to LymPro! The two conferences in July may not have impressed the low scientific IQ traders who speculate on AMBS, but it got to and impressed the KOLs needed for LymPro to become the industry standard. It is ironic that there is such a gap between what has really happened at the two conferences and what shareholders perceive happened. These two conferences were about deep and powerful science, not sound bites prepared for low IQ traders.
By the time LymPro completes it's testing and it proves it is by far more accurate than amivid, (sp?) LymPro will almost instantly become the lead diagnostic test for AD clinical trials. Gerald knows what he is doing. He is on track. The IQ gap causing the discrepancy between LymPro's real value and the value the market is currently giving it will soon disappear. Gerald's revenue guidance in a week or so is going to be really interesting.
Sapere Aude: These last few days have been difficult for everyone. I think everyone is understanding things better now and hopefully Gerald's blog will get us going again.
LymPro Version 2 Delayed Testing.
I don't believe Gerald is corrupt or that LymPro is a hoax. All the quality diagnostic people who have signed on recently with AMBS wouldn't have come if they felt LymPro wasn't what it was reported to be. And they have complete access to all the testing that has been done on LymPro, far more than we have.
Also, Beckton Dickenson wouldn't have risked damaging their prestige by putting their name on the posters at the worldwide AD Conference in Copenhagen unless they also felt LymPro was what AMBS said it was. BD HAS VALIDATED LYMPRO!!
It's precisely for times like these when the market turns on a product releasing partial data, like AMBS has with LymPro, that it's important to have third parties like Beckton Dickenson standing behind it with their validation of the fundamental science. BD has validated LymPro's former tests done by Steiller in 2002 and 2012 which yielded the 90 & 95% spec & sens data. That was version 1. When the complete testing is done on version 2 it will yield even better results.
That hasn't happened yet but the scientists who really understand what AMBS been doing with LymPro are impressed with what they've seen. Only the bashers with ulterior motives and no science backgrounds have been slinging mud at Gerald's integrity! That really sucks in my opinion!! Shame on all of them for questioning Gerald's character! AMBS acquired version 2 a few months back and I suspect that changed their plans and may be responsible for some of the delays and lack of clarity about the process. But not for a minute do I believe we have anything to worry about regarding the science of LymPro or it's ability to become the industry standard.
We'll recover, quickly.
Scientists have to do their thing. We're investors and have a different focus. Let's be patient and let it all play out. All is well that ends well!
The good news we've been waiting for may come after the close of market. If it is good news, we'll see a tremendous gap up tomorrow.
CAVENDISH, NOT "DATA," IS THE MAIN DISH TODAY! LymPro data is important and some of it will be presented today with more to follow in the coming weeks. But could Gerald have other surprises for us today, other than data? Watch out for J. Michael Moffat, the Head of the Cavendish Group. He is moderating a panel after Dr. Arendt and Dr. Kirby, who will be talking about LymPro. Maybe the Cavendish Group's money can give us a boost? Money talks and it can open doors. If Cavendish were going to make a big splash, today's forum is the place to do it.
This may be the last chance to ever buy AMBS for under .20 cents!
JP, wasn't it JC that turned water into wine? I thought GC turned Pro in Canada?
Thanks JP for relaying Gerald's email.
But even though this morning was no fun, it has been extremely healthy in my opinion. We've had a massive sell off...over nothing! We've rid ourselves of the short term traders and weak hands. When the data is released tomorrow we will soar...and because we've done our correcting today, the heights we reach tomorrow will be more stable, IMHO.
I say we close today around .185 and we hit .24 to .27 on Thursday.
dustfinder: If you think AMBS is truly gold, you may want to buy shares today instead of after the Conference.
You're going to get left in the dust, dustfinder!
Not really, AMBS has never been this strong before. We are trading above .18 cents even though we should be trading much much higher. Before when AMBS traded above .18 cents a lot of manipulation was involved.
I'm surprised this even has to be said.
Not until Revenue Guidance is given, and not fully until the terms of the partnership are announced. Then we'll all know just how real LymPro is.
I love the word "shenanigans," but I don't like them being pulled on my stock! I hope shorts and P & D losers stay away from AMBS!
I think that would be a smart move to drop the "LymPro data bomb" Wednesday after the close! That would give everyone time to mull it over and then on Thursday morning the pps would gap up!
I also think Friday morning would be a good time to announce when the 2Q Conference Call will be where LymPro Revenue Guidance is given. That will help keep the pps up!
LYMPRO'S NEXT THREE CATALYSTS:
1) THE CONFERENCE ON JULY 31ST where LymPro's newest data will be revealed. If the sens & spec numbers are above 90% we are going to get a boost. Having Beckton Dickenson get those numbers for us really gives us credibility with all the Big Pharmas doing AD clinical trials. Currently, the test they are using to screen their clinical patients is more invasive, more expensive, and less accurate! They will be more than ready to switch over to LymPro.
2) LYMPRO REVENUE GUIDANCE will be given by Gerald a week or so after the 31st Conference. Jason Napodano has said "the revenue opportunity for LymPro under CLIA will be several hundred million." The question is, will that revenue need some ramp up time to get to several hundred million per year, or will we get it in 2015? Watson thinks we'll have 250 million revenue in 2015. I think that is high. The truth is, if we only get 80 million and 50 million of that is our share of the profits, that is a home run! If you multiply 50 million by 8 you get 400 million market cap for LymPro alone. With 800 million outstanding shares that translates to .50 cents per share for LymPro alone!! Revenue Guidance could really boost our pps.
3) LYMPRO PARTNERSHIP ANNOUNCEMENT AT THE END OF SUMMER will also boost our pps. If we get 35 to 50 million up front from a Johnson & Johnson, I could see us trading well above .40 or .50 cents by mid September!!
Lincoln Park is stronger than any day trading Newsletter group! LPC wants this to go above .60 cents by October, at least!! Anyone selling in the next few weeks is crazy! I sincerely hope the Money Running Group sends over a bunch of shorts next week. I'd love to see them get CRUSHED and further add to the upward SQUEEZE!
CATALYSTS COMING IN THE NEAR FUTURE:
LymPro Data
LymPro Revenue Guidance
LymPro Partnership Announcement
MANF/Retinitis Functionality Data
MANF/Retinitis Break Through, Fast Track, Orphan Designation
MANF/Wolframs/Diabetes Data
MANF/Wolframs Break Through, Fast Track, Orphan Designation
Gerald uses Partnership Money to do a Stock Buy Back
Gerald's LymPro Media Blitz in November
Up Listing to NASDAQ in November
LymPro Commercialization in November
Institutional Investors Taking Positions after Up List
Eltoprazine Starts Phase 2b Clinical Trial
MANF/Retinitis Partnership in Q1 2015
MANF/Wolframs/Diabetes Partnership in Q1 2015
Phenoguard New Discoveries
AMBS spins off the Diagnostic Division (Creating shareholder value)
More MANF indications announced
It never ends!!!
AMBS will blow past a 1 billion market cap in the next year and will be knocking at the 2 billion market cap door by the end of 2015!!
We have no real map of where this thing will go....Speculation only!!
Having the guy who basically discovered LymPro present at the Conference means they are pretty excited about the data they'll be presenting. I would think they will pull out all the stops to get media coverage.
Now, do they know how to pull out all the stops? I sure hope so. Maybe someone should email Gerald and remind him that he should the exact opposite of what he did at the January Concussion Conf. in terms of media exposure. That one was a yawner!!
Dr. Arendt's Presentation at the Conference Means LymPro is Being Highlighted!
"I am pleased to accept the organizers' offer to present at #C4CT," said Dr. Arendt. After being the first to identify the scientific principles underpinning Amarantus' diagnostic blood test LymPro[color=red][/color], I have continued my research into Alzheimer's disease with a strong focus on human tissue evaluation from Alzheimer's patients. Ibelieve there is a need to take a much broader perspective in thinking about Alzheimer's, and I am pleased to have this unique forum to share my perspective with the world."
In addition to Gerald being given time to present, I think giving Dr. Arendt 30 minutes means LymPro's break through data is going to be highlighted at the Conference!! That's huge!!
You're a Joker!
Jeffshir: I agree with you. The media is a variable that I haven't accounted for. It is a wild card! No one knows what it might do!
mysersvodka: You're right. I can only wrap my mind around LymPro here in the U.S. (Barely!) So when I say I think we'll be at least to .40 cents by November it's pretty much based on LymPro here in the U.S. Everything else should be added on to .40 cents, in my opinion. But I don't know how to try and value MANF and Eltoprazine nor evaluate LymPro's European & Asian revenue.
So I wouldn't be surprised at all if we hit in the .60 cent to $1.00 range by November. I would be surprised to hit $2.00, but pleasantly surprised!!
LowHanginFruit: You put forth some good ideas. I try to be conservative so I'm not disappointed, but I admit it is possible that LymPro might be able to grab a larger percentage of the AD clinical testing being done....faster than any of us realize! That is why Gerald's Revenue Guidance is so important.
Very good analysis! I have always said we'd be at least to .40 cents by November. I think Gerald could do a 1:10 RS and up list(Getting us to $4.00 on NASDAQ) and we'd be fine. Obviously, if we can achieve a higher pps by November, like .60 cents to $1.00, that would be great.
Excellent analysis! I'd invite others to join in and give their thoughts to this. (Especially people with Financial/Investment backgrounds)
50 million LymPro revenue x 16 would be 800 million. And, based on 800 million outstanding shares, that would put us at $1.00 following revenue guidance. (Plus, whatever value an analyst would place on MANF & Elto) I can see an analyst giving us a Price Target above $1.00 by September.
The question is whether or not our pps will respond to that target by November when we up list? If Gerald just throws out some simple estimates and doesn't really reveal how he came up with his 2015 revenue guidance, the market may not take it seriously enough to push us over $1.00.
I think his LymPro Guidance is very critical to his entire plan, including the final deal he strikes with our LymPro partner. He needs to put forth a strong revenue model for LymPro to get the partner to put up 100 million in cash up front!!
As I see it we have three huge LymPro catalysts in August: 1) Releasing the latest LymPro data at the Conference, 2) LymPro Revenue Guidance, & 3) Announcing a LymPro Partner.
Jacmar: I don't know if LymPro can start generating revenue fast enough to reach your valuations? We won't start commercializing until November or December, so Q1 of 2015 will be our first full quarter. How much do you think they can generate that fast? I speculate just a few million. I would be happy with 50 million revenue in 2015 and 150 million in 2016. In the past you have talked about 150 million revenue in 2015!! I just don't see how they can get the engines started that fast.
I think fibonaci and watsonhelper are insightful people. I don't believe they have "supernatural oracular" powers to see the future of AMBS. Their prognostications have been far from 100% accurate. I'm not sure they are 50% accurate. But they're entertaining and worth taking note of.
Salexander: Here is my "guess" on LymPro Revenue. I am not really basing it on any data I have evaluated, I am just having fun. Here we go: Q1 2015 - 3 Million; Q2 2015 - 7 Million; Q3 2015 - 15 Million; Q4 - 25 Million. (3 + 7 + 15 + 25 = 50 Million in 2015) I would bet things really ramp up in 2016 and they reach 150 Million, and then it gets crazy from there.
What kind of pop will this "future earnings" do for the "current price?" That is where we need to start speculating. Maybe some MBA types like yourself need to step up here and provide an educated financial basis for our mb speculation?
Assuming 50 Million Revenue for LymPro in 2015 and 150 Million Revenue in 2016, Salexander, what formula would an analyst apply to come up with a net present value for AMBS, based on LymPro? Somehow you'll have to figure in the value of the LymPro partnership and what percentage of the profits they'll take. I think it would be fun to do some financing speculation the way someone like Jason Napodano would.