Looking at Putin's track record, I am fully expecting him to make a move while Kerry is in the Ukraine today. Does he want more than Crimea, if so, PM's may continue to rise. Russia will use the decisions of the "Independent Crimean Republic" (or whatever they name it in the next few days)to bring them under the Russian wing. But first, the Crimean people need to revolt and vote for separation from Ukraine. Let's just call that a done deal.
Next question is... Does Putin want more than that? Will he try to take the entire southern Ukraine with the pretext that he is just coming in to protect his people? It would make sense.
Yesterday, Russia voted to use force in Ukraine. A few days before that they voted to change Russian laws to make it easier to bring independent, breakaway, former soviet socialist republic countries back into the Russian fold. While doing that, they also voted to make it easier to give Russian passports out to Ukrainian citizens and removed barriers to transitioning those Ukrainians over to Russian citizenship.
Now, Russia is claiming that the new Ukrainian government is not legitimate and that the recently deposed Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych should be returned to power.
Well, if this is Russia's stance, then it would only make sense that Russia would feel compelled to do more in Ukraine than to just protect Russia's military interests. Hell. Ukraine shares the border with Russia. There is just no way that Russia allows this to happen.
Consider the same scenario from a different point of view:
If Canada had a skirmish that resulted in a hastily elected new Canadian government, one which the US considered to be illegitimate and one which wanted to work less with us and more with our enemies... do you for one instant think that the US wouldn't go in to Canada militarily and kick the illegitimate government out and restore 'order' back to the country, especially if the majority of the Canadian forces could be persuaded to lay down their arms and simply let us pass through their Country in order to 'help'? You would be naive to believe otherwise.
Well... this is the case from Russia's point of view. And I will be very surprised if Russia shows any restraint whatsoever at this point. All the Ukraine needs right now is the smallest of 'nudges' in the right direction... and Russia is in position to make this happen.
Why should I believe that Russia would let this opportunity slip through their fingers. Putin, with Obama as his lap puppy, will never have a better opportunity, or a weaker opposition, to set up Russian territorial and political dominance for the foreseeable future. Ukraine is the key to an Eastern block of Russo-leaning countries and without it... Russia can never be the superpower that it continues to dream of becoming.
What is your opinion?
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