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I believe they intend to.
This might well be "Game, set and match".
Who's up for a short squeeze!
I predict the PDD data and an announcement of the specifics of the phase 3 trial will come as one PR.
I think it would have more impact that way.
Since the last PR was on Monday the 14th, I'm a little surprised no one has predicted separate PR's on the 21st and 28th.
“Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”
I agree 100%, and it is Buffet/Munger's advice that has me overweight in AVXL.
But there's a saying which I hold near and dear.
"Don't fool yourself and you're the easiest person to fool."
Most on this board would agree (some begrudgingly) that AVXL is a risky investment.
Those agreeing begrudgingly would do so with a wink and a nod as if to say " But not really!"
I cry "foul!".
It's a startup Biotech running trials on the most frail and vulnerable people society has.
And involving the blood/brain Barrier no less.
A few unexplained deaths and a trial halt(which we saw in a recent BP vaccine trial) and the narrative changes, especially if BP has influence and the ears of people within the FDA/TGA.
One of the recent arguments I've heard is posters say is if they were to sell some shares they have nowhere else compelling to invest the money.
If they have a position in a dozen biotech stocks( which I have read is the only sensible way to invest in the biotech space. I believe Investor2014 employs this strategy) then they make a valid argument.
But if AVXL is their only biotech(as is my case) and it's a large % of their investment mix I might suggest they sell some shares and keep the money in cash as I do.
In my mind high risk +low risk balances out to acceptable risk.
I'm in total agreement with the longs that AVXL has the potential to make us all silly rich, but "too good to be true" has also stood the test of time.
(exiting soapbox now.)
I had a friend at work who bought Ford in the low to mid single digits back around '09.
A couple years later he asked me if he should sell.
I shrugged and said "why not sell half"?
If it goes down you're happy you sold some.
If it goes up you still own some.
He could not even entertain that idea in his mind, it had to be all or none.
This is also big problem with CEO's.
Thy always make it a binary decision.
Acquire or don't.
Merge or don't.
They rarely say "Let's try a trial partnership and see how that works".
AT&T is a poster child for that type of mentality.
Also common in BP.
That's always been my wife's philosophy and hard to argue against.
And most on this board could easily do that.
I think it depends how well you know yourself.
About a year ago my AVXL position was about 10x my normal position size.
I was 61 years old, not wealthy, and this seemed awful risky.
I was uncomfortable and sold half.
I immediately knew it was the right thing to do for me.
Do I now regret this?
No, that would be foolish and playing hindsight games.
For the last year I've enjoyed AVXL's progress stress free.
I would recommend most sell some and bank the money, keep some and enjoy the ride.
If you know you'll beat yourself up if you sell some and the share price continues to rise and you'll beat yourself up if you don't sell some and it tanks, you should get to know yourself better and then act accordingly.
In the interest of full disclosure I did increase my position by 20% @$12 a share a few months ago.
https://mebfaber.com/2013/07/26/just-go-halfsies/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/131980-the-wisdom-of-half-positions
"That validation will have a huge impact on the share price and the expectations of other future trial successes."
I think it might head for the stratosphere due to FOMO.
George Armstrong Custer
Doesn't Nov. to June seem like a long time to design a trial?
Even upon death instead of cryogenically freezing one's brain perhaps a A2-73 IV drip?
In regards to the PDD trial results, didn't the recent scientific paper allude to how it likely went?
One unique aspect of AVXL is if we do prosper monetarily, we're also more likely to have a longer life to enjoy said wealth.
6/15/2021 HC Wainwright Reiterated Rating Buy $17.00 --> $25.00.
6/14/2021 Jonestrading Reiterated Rating Buy $35.00.
I wonder if he did this to prevent PR oversaturation.
Like the little boy who cried "wolf", this as a separate PR might take away from the thunder of the other forthcoming PR's.
The bloom is off the rose already?
https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2021/06/12/alzheimers-association-biogen-fda-aduhelm-price/
"being REBORN w/truth and integrity " is an easy sell.
I've made decent money over the years buying stock in companies that have crashed and burned, often due to a scandal or the like.
They hire a new CEO, close underperforming stores, divest of ill conceived acquisitions and sometimes even change the name.
The bigger the makeover the more they have my attention.
Nothing materially changes, but perception changes and the investors come a callin'.
In regard to the FDA, I love this country but my confidence level is low.
Aducanumab NYT article for anyone who didn't see it.
https://news.yahoo.com/alzheimers-drug-poses-dilemma-fda-151036062.html
If I were forced to bet on what transpires, I would bet we hear nothing from Anavex this week.
I have history on my side.
I tend to agree with Doc that at least one more phase 3 Alzheimer's trial will be needed before approval.
But I think with Rett approval, good results from the now completed PDD trial and good results from the ongoing Alzheimer's trial, the probable approval will be baked into the share price anyway.
Fund scum?
They make a thorough and convincing case.
Shorting is an essential action in public security markets.
The why is irrelevant.
[ As a Partner at Braemar Energy Ventures ($600 million AUM), Ms. Ma focused on investments in digitization of industry, resource efficiency, mobility, renewable energy infrastructure, and deeptech.]
This is the second person to join team Anavex as of late who has a background in energy.
Trying hard but can't see the dot.
Interesting mitochondria article.
https://phys.org/news/2021-05-mothers-offspring-height-lifespan-disease.html
There's been plenty of griping over the years by some well regarded posters about the spotty, incomplete data in regard to the A2-73 trials.
I'm not nearly smart enough to understand what info is missing, but I'm very excited(fingers crossed) that the data will be so in-depth that some of these questions may be answered once and for all.
My personal thought is Dr. Missling would like to run the next PD/PPD trial in Australia as they will refund a portion of the trial cost.
In addition there's the entity that will co-fund the trial up to 50%.
Talk about running a trial on the cheap!
So I think there's a back and forth, trying to meet trial requirements of both the TGA and the FDA with an eye toward approval.
The way government bodies work, the lengthy delay would actually be expected.
I wonder what percentage of the projected 91 billion dollar sleep aid market Anavex will own in 2025.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/global-sleep-aids-market
I understand, but that was not the point I was speaking to.
"Strange that he still hasn't released the name of the unknown indication. I don't see a point in holding that back."
"Strange that he still hasn't released the name of the unknown indication. I don't see a point in holding that back."
In my mind it's one of 3 things.
1) We're waiting for a foundation to solicit donations so they might co- fund.
2) We are ironing out the details for a joint venture/trial with a Japanese BP as a way to introduce ourselves to that lucrative market.
3) The trial is of an uncommon variety and there's a back and forth with a regulatory body in regards to design.
I've often wondered if A2-73 could help with weight loss.
I believe chemical exposure(including pharmaceuticals) is a big contributing factor to the obesity epidemic.
I worry about this too.
In a corrupt system the smart money would bet on Goliath.
Your logic and this quote agree.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler."
Just realized I've checked the price of AVXL thousands of times over the years.
Now I'm depressed.
"he is ready to move quickly"
Now I know you're pulling my leg.