Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ok I’ll make a concrete call. It’s coming within the next few months. Buy your spy april-June 340 puts now.
Lol I hurt your feelings so you pull out the second account? Who cares about this platform? There’s like 20 people on the entire platform, the rest are paid promoters. Most of which have multiple accounts to shill from ;b
Why would I care about being wrong? Trading is about risk management and finding the outsized trade not being right all the time. Otm puts have been the outsized gainer all last year and will continue to be this year. China, hyper growth, lots of highly profitable otm puts were bought in March of last year that could easily fund cheap crash insurance perpetually. Otm SQ puts were cheap a few months ago and paying off. Most of the market is in a bear market already.
Not worth a comment. Have patience. Don’t overleverage. A big move is inevitable.
Patience. Margin calls are coming. I’ve added far otm puts and pushed out the crash date. Crash before dec 22 would be optimal for me. If you don’t think it can happen you aren’t paying attention. Vix 100+, spy 340, usd gonna rip to 100, yields already inverting.
People don’t realize the fed is enabling Chinese HY debt to be used as margin. The margin call is just going to happen one day, my guess is sub 420 is where we gap and drop to 370, then 320.
Pay attention to advance/declines and volume. The big boys have already exited most of their positions. They hold the indexes up while distributing.
I’m making money so long as we hit 340 by December
3 days 30% drop. Vix 100+. Multiple limit downs and market closures. Starting soon imo With debt ceiling and court ordered end to cdc authority on evictions. Apparently the derivative exposure in the system is going to be made public soon and that could be a catalyst as well. Too bad for the fed delta isn’t alarming anyone.
:b Give me til the end of July for 340. End of October sub 300. Looking for 340 by December minimum but I think the moment of weakness is here and now. That can obviously change but the window of weakness for a major pullback is through the next few weeks imo.
Disagree. Playing a top like this isn’t easy. It’s about picking points of weakness and sizing up appropriately with proper headroom to be wrong. My positioning gives me until January for a 20% correction. Coupled with otm puts on square that gives me until the middle of next year. I make the most if it happens now but can still profit if a move happens before December.
At least I’m not yelling everyday about the end of the world. Way I see it, 3 strikes I’m out so I’ll take one more swing around august/September if we get pinned or climb from here.
SKEW is making ridiculous new highs day after day. China credit impulse crushing lower and a leading indicator. Manufacturing rolling over everywhere. Strong advance decline divergences, breadth is abysmal on nasdaq. Consumer spending is about to go negative. Banks aren’t lending. And consumer income and savings are crashing. Dow theory in action as transports lead industrials and it seems industrials will lead the nasdaq. Coupled with Russell yet to make new highs since March and join the party. The dollar showing strength. Peak fed liquidity as the RRP of 700M+ a day is effectively quantitative tightening at the moment. It’s time to fulfill the megaphone pattern.
Sub 300 by September jmo. I think within a month we see 340. I managed to top tick palladium futures. Been short spy for too long already but the moment is here I think.
Been trying to tell people. The tech game is about staying hungry, the moment complacency sets in you are history. Intel will only stay relevant cuz China is about to take over Taiwan (tsmc) and AMD will be screwed. Whole semi space about to sell off. Shorting intel is crowded now but plenty of room lower. Everyone is flat footed on Amd still. Might be the best short in the space. Can act as a hedge for your longs cuz the China Taiwan situation is the catalyst to end the globalization p/e applied to the entire stock market.
Fundamentals drive everything. Why burry is who he is and technical traders are nameless and usually just a product of fundamentals even if they don’t realize it.
They are front running it and it’s like a gun to Powell’s head. If he triggers a squeeze he will cause a deflationary implosion that will rival GFC. He must alleviate the shorting pressure and allow them to cover lower or risk our entire livelihoods.
You missed the memo? News this am about it expiring.
There is a liquidity crisis caused by everyone shorting treasuries. If they extend slr they might trigger deflationary Armageddon as everyone will chase to cover. The fed and the elected officials have backed themselves into a corner. Either we go down and allow shorts to cover or we go down and blow up the system once again.
Slr expiring is big. It’s essentially monetary tightening. Could force banks to sell treasuries they hold in excess driving yields higher. This will collapse the corporate debt market. If you’ve ever wanted to buy puts here’s a valid time to bet against going higher.
We see things similarly. I was of the same macro thesis. The fact everyone sees it the same signals me a bad feeling. After all its the market movers that determine stock movements not the macro. Just my conspiracy theory Maybe. The people who run the markets run the White House. They have for decades. I don’t believe either side represents Americans best interest but corporate interests. We live in a corporate socialist society blah blah blah I could go on.
Chinese bonds are seeing increased interest as they are more attractive for international investment. The fed has signaled they are going to let yields rise as long as there is liquidity. 2+2. Literally day after Biden’s speech bonds started pushing strong again I watched 10 yr futures all day i might get in big Monday.
I’m up 1000% since beginning of last year. I have to protect my assets now. Still small but substantial options positions to reap a big reward if we see the macro picture play out.
Yeah biden spooked me. Got out most of my positions and holding cash this am. Might be a shakeout. It worked on me
Shorts covering here. Warrants just got slapped and options ask rose 20%. Time for momo up
Are you including thcx shares bought up? It’s pretty clear they were the buyer at 18ish. That was 8M est. gap up. I’m not sure how that calculates to float but might explain only 1.5M float. Fintel definitely doesn’t always have most up to date info. Either way if any decent size buyer shows up they need to drive this price up 4$ to get in with any size. The illiquidity speaks to an incredibly tight float.
That’s an insurance policy for larger firms. Maybe they know something we don’t. But it Can be bullish. Maybe they are extremely leveraged long and using this to hedge.
I view it similarly. But not sure how inaccurate the float is given the institutional positions holding. 88% held according to fintel which leaves 1.5-2M maybe? but agree I thought float was 10x higher. Bond auction today is either going to switch market sentiment to buy or crater us back to recent 3700 and clvr to .09. I think bonds stay stable so betting we go up. Mexico legalization hasn’t shown up on people’s radars yet. Khiron running means Clvr will run just gotta be patient.
Famed citadel of gme fame is currently holding 6x calls to puts. Lots of notable funds are holding massive positions. Farallon holding 2M+
I think the recent gamma squeezes such as gme is orchestrated. I think Clvr is a good target for this manipulation
Fintel list float as 1.5M. Lists it is held 88% insiders and institutions. Currently 166% of float, 2 days to cover based on volume. About 2M shares short. 30% short yesterday
Short interest 20%. 150% of float according to fintel. Borrow rate at 40%. Trading like they don’t want people to know they need to cover. Get ready for a rip.
If bonds jump from 1% to 5% overnight there will be a slight correction lol. Ycc will be implemented. I’m not sure if a true crash can happen while ycc and operation twist happens but we will find out.
This board wants to call the crash. This dip showed you what will crash the market. These bond auctions are going to trigger another illiquidity event down the road as they get shorted back down and the dollar crashes further. Today is not the day imo but the fed signaled they will not proactively prevent a crash from happening.
Research these bond auctions. June is apparently going to have a greater supply. If rates fall to new low and dollar crashes further june will likely be another illiquidity event like we just saw. Until then spy 4200-4500 imo
I’ve got an institutional position built on this dip. I’ll sell the actual stutes some at 50.
Foreal. Growth is selling off. Cannabis is both growth and value now. Insane deals in the market
I tend to jump the gun and not wait for confirmation so let’s see if this is not just another headfake
Beautiful if you bought the dip Friday :b had me scratching my head which way they were gonna take it for a little while. I think up from here. Ascending wedge into 4200ish
Very interesting right now. 10yr and dxy are up pretty strong at same time as /Es (spy). Been that way all am and usually they are inversely reactionary. Usually should bet with 10yr and dxy driving /es (down in this case). Volume/price action suggesting different on /es tho. Good luck figuring the trade today.
See ya at 4100 ;b
Btfd. Stimmy getting passed is a guarantee. All that money goes into banks. Because of the erosion of regulation banks are forced to do something with that capital. Money doesn’t sit so it floats into the markets. On top of that these retail traders are about to have an additional 1k to throw at meme stocks. Bout to have a blow off top. 43-4500 in 2 months. That’s the short op of a lifetime. No more stimulus. Everyone will be vaccinated. The reopening trade is done. Then when nothing changes and economy isn’t as roaring as everybody thought it would be interest rates will be rising. Tsunami back to 2000s potentially 1800.
There you go good for you
Jmo: So what happened with gme is retailers had relatively small positions and as the position grew their margin increased. Then they use the margin to increase their position. It’s a tool to give retail extra ammo. So of course this is what institutions target to limit retail power on gme. They are applying it to other millennial targeted sectors, sectors they are late on. Particularly cannabis. I had a pretty conservative strategy using margin on my massive holding of grwg. Went from 50% borrowable to unable to borrow, so got margin called. Absolutely no reason for grwg to be included with Tlry. But that was a beautiful thing. I made a good bit of money with that margin, rotated from more conservative plays and that change in margin plus what I saw in tlry and clvr told me institutions are getting in and in a big way. Clvr and Tlry are acquisition vehicles. They can sign loi’s with American cannabis producers while maintaining their listing. So I hope you bought clvr, particularly options on that dip. I opened a 6 figure otm call position clvr. Grwg I added some options and my average is 10$ so I’m big enough i don’t need to add but it was a good opp and maybe the last.
Hope you got some.
Hope you took my advice
Fidelity
Buy this dip. Weedstocks and spacs are being pressured by institutions to reduce marginability of assets to shakeout overleveraged retail. Institutions are buying here.
Clvr and grwg you’re welcome
Wow these scummy investment brokerages and institutions. They were late and they shook shares out by forcing brokerages to change margin policies on spac and weedstocks. My largest holding went from 50% borrowable against to 0%. Buy the dip. All the institutions are.
Same. I’m not saying it’s going there just that it has the potential cuz market is choppy here and volume drying up so potential market shake out possible. Will be buying in any sustained dip